Open 239 - C9++


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:18 am

Post by Fishythefish »

If one of the masons flips into confirmation, 423 was definitely
right
. Because a cop investigation on them would have been completely wasted.

That scum ploy would only make any sense at all if there was a chance we are lynching one of these masons tomorrow. Which there isn't. Even for people who have doubts about them, they are a terrible lynch - just because, if they are scum, we have almost won regardless (if necessary, I'll argue this more fully tomorrow).

An investigation on the masons would be lovely. But it wouldn't be nearly as valuable as an investigation elsewhere, because if they are town they are much more likely to get confirmed in another way than other players, and because if they are scum we have loads and loads of time to act.

Also, there's the way they are totally obviously real. Sacrificing two thirds of your scumteam when there's a good chance a SK exposes you immediately by killing one of you would be a crazy scum play.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:11 am

Post by Ythan »

Mafuyu (0):
Fate (0):
Just a Bit Off-Center (1): Andrius
Ythill (0):
nhammen (0):
drmyshottyizsik (0):
Fishythefish (0):
Andrius (3): Fishythefish, AGar, drmyshottyizsik
Nobody Special (6): Fate, Ythill, Mafuyu, Just a Bit Off-Center, nhammen, Nobody Special

Unsight (0):
AGar (1): Unsight

not voting (0):

As the lot of you say around discussing the comparative merits of various recipients of your hobo justice, Nobody Special took it upon himself to ease your minds and make the decision himself. He hopped to the noose and did you the favor of stretching his own neck himself. The night came on and the park's lights with it, and in the glow of the lamps you could see more clearly that this was surely a Mafia hobo if you've ever seen one. Lacking the additional signs of a ranking member of the hobo Mafia, his station was clear.

Mafia Goon Nobody Special Lynched


Sorry for the delay. Deadline is midnight after 12th.
Last edited by Ythan on Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:13 am

Post by Ythan »

I made a mistake in revealing NS as a goon. My bad. You can go ahead and discount that 5% likely variation. I will not continue to reveal specific mafia roles, however.
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:13 pm

Post by Ythan »

Good morning. Andrius, mafia, and Just A Bit Off-Center, cop, are dead. Sorry for the brevity.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:27 pm

Post by Andrius »

I made sure that Bah posts are allowed.

"BAH!!!" :evil:
Go scum!
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 8:29 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In obvious news, the masons are clear.

I need to have a reread of some stuff before laying a vote down today. This may not happen until Monday.
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:00 pm

Post by Just a Bit Off-Center »

Heh. Bah. I suppose that was bound to happen; my apologies, town.

Ythill, I am willing to take you up on that offer.

Town, I am expecting you to win this for me. Good luck.
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:26 pm

Post by Ythill »

I'm stunned by that cardflip. WTF?

I guess I need to reread. Two scumfilps and a pair of confirmed masons isn't bad news though.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 11:20 pm

Post by Mafuyu »

CDMM+(Not T)= Three scum setup possibilities. What's discomforting is that there's still a 50% chance of SK occurring (TT, T(P), (P)T, and (P)(P) being the outcome tree).

Mafuyu assumes that the SK wasn't expecting a scum to die tonight, as the best strategy for D2 would have been to push the Mason lynch so as to remove both Masons over the course of the Day/Night cycle. Which is good, because it means that both anti-town parties are in a situation where information spread is now advantageous (as opposed to disadvantageous in the beginning, when scum still had buffer members).
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:47 am

Post by nhammen »

I have quite a few things to say, so bear with me. But before I say any of that, I really have to say that YES! Both of the players I went after yesterday were scum! I feel great right now.

First of all, I am entering grad school (Math at University of Houston) in just over a week. There is a mandatory test on Wednesday of next week. After looking at the sample test, I realized that in the 8 months since I was last at school, I seem to have forgotten much. Therefore, I will be studying heavily until Wednesday.
I am declaring limited access until Wednesday afternoon.
Maybe the studying will not affect my play. But I felt that it is better to declare limited access and not be gone than to not declare limited access and disappear.

This has already affected me, because I only had time to do a very short reread looking for NS connections overnight. I only got to page 9. And I didn't see too many connections, except that Fate was attacking NS from the beginning of the day yesterday. So the only way Fate could be scum would be if the scum's plan was to bus NS right from the start, which I'm not seeing. I view Fate to be almost as confirmed as Mafuyu and myself.

I was planning to start the day by responding to Ythill's comment that I had not breadcrumbed by showing exactly how I had breadcrumbed in very specific detail. However, Andrius' flip means that this is no longer required.

Now, onto Ythan's mistake. And it is a BIG one. Much bigger than he realized. First of all, we know that NS was a goon. This means that the 1 T and 0 T setups are not true. Combined with Mafuyu's statement just above, we know that we are in CDMMTTX where X is anything other than T or M. This means that we KNOW that there IS an SK. So this is already one way in which Ythan's mistake is very big. The other way it is big is the results of the wagons yesterday. Andrius was taking heavy attacks, and then the wagon left Andrius PR to go for NS goon. I expect that our missing scum was among the effort to transfer this wagon from Andrius to NS.
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:58 am

Post by nhammen »

Also, Mafuyu did not post in the Mason quicktopic at all last night... :(

Yesterday, Andrius claimed not to know that the godfather is NK immune. Either he was faking this, or he was the roleblocker. It seems to me like that would be a silly thing to fake, so I'm leaning roleblocker for the moment.

I guess I did not have as much to say as I thought.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 3:05 am

Post by nhammen »

nhammen wrote:And I didn't see too many connections, except that Fate was attacking NS from the beginning of the day yesterday. So the only way Fate could be scum would be if the scum's plan was to bus NS right from the start, which I'm not seeing. I view Fate to be almost as confirmed as Mafuyu and myself.
Whoops! Forgot about the SK. Or rather did not realize about the SK until later in that post. Fate is almost certainly not mafia with NS. He could still be SK. In fact, anybody could still be SK. Finding mafia will probably be much much easier...
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:05 am

Post by Mafuyu »

nhammen wrote:Also, Mafuyu did not post in the Mason quicktopic at all last night... :(

Yesterday, Andrius claimed not to know that the godfather is NK immune. Either he was faking this, or he was the roleblocker. It seems to me like that would be a silly thing to fake, so I'm leaning roleblocker for the moment.

I guess I did not have as much to say as I thought.
Oh shit, Mafuyu forgot about that. :?
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:07 am

Post by AGar »

Ok. 2 confirmed masons (awesome)

Only 1 semi-mystery letter to the setup (awesome) [I think we can all agree it's not likely to be a V either]

1 very tough to kill serial killer (not-so-awesome)

1 remaining mafia [like nhammen said, likely GF] (awesome)

We're at 6:1:1 with a massive numbers game on our side right now.

Odds of hitting a non-protown player are 33% if at random.

However, we won't be lynching at random :twisted:

I'd like to turn everyone's attention to Unsight, who yesterday stayed horrifically distant from any leading wagons and took next to no stances yesterday. I wouldn't even call his vote on me a stance, as it wasn't really backed up by anything, even when he was asked why he was voting for me. Otherwise he said he'd be down for a FTF wagon, but never actually got behind it with, you know, a vote. And he said that Andrius was active lurking but didn't vote, while NS was just lurking. Post #262, I can't tell if the first part is sarcasm, but if not, he backs up his only suspicion with no vote, instead leaving it parked on me, and has "slight leanings one way or the other" on everyone else. Which means at best, he's willing to vote for a "slightly scummy" read over a "pretty scummy" read, which he announced as having more weight than the slight reads.

VOTE: Unsight
Ski mask? Check! Sawed off? Check! Guilty conscience, fear of death? Check! Check! Check!

Get to know me. Or don't. I won't tell you what to do. I'm not God. Or your father. Or your boss.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:08 am

Post by Ythan »

I could always randomly reassign mafia roles between the living and dead mafia players if anyone believes that would be less intrusive than the mistake itself.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:19 am

Post by Ythill »

I'm not going to bother checking your set-up calcuations, nham. We've got two unrelated scum amongst six players. If your assumption about Andrius != GF is correct, then we've got 2-3 days to find both of them. While I agree that finding mafia will be easier, we should definately search for both before ending the day.

I started some wagon analysis last night but I was too tired to make sense of it. Will work on it again today and post it either before I leave for work or when I get home tonight.

@AGar ninja:
I'll be looking into Unsight (and others) after I'm finished with the VCs.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:25 am

Post by Mafuyu »

Ythan wrote:I could always randomly reassign mafia roles between the living and dead mafia players if anyone believes that would be less intrusive than the mistake itself.
Your discretion. As nh stated, the damage has already been done in confirming the existance of an SK (unless his logic is wrong, which it doesn't look to be).

Vote Agar

Nh noted a possible situation in the mastalk which Mafuyu agrees with. Specifically, he noted Agar's similarity in action with another scum member regarding how Mafuyu began the fullclaim (namely, mentioning the existance of at least one M as opposed to stating outright Mason Pair). Nh could probably provide a better explanation, when he's not studying for grad test.

Mafuyu is also of the opinion that scum and SK will try to communicate today in some fashion. Having two confirmed town in a population-stacked scenario means that they have to coordinate kills (specifically, in decimating the mason pair so as to remove the confirmation advantage that town now has).

Lastly for this post, setup speculation. Mafuyu believes the following, and would like counterpoints if any of these thoughts are faulty:
DD should not claim (Backup Doctor). Doing so directs tonight's kill as follows: Doc-Bypass SK to Mason, Scum to Backup.
CC is a dead-end thought unless millers are not naiive.
V probably does not exist, but if they somehow do then a claim is best, as it puts the SK in a very rough situation. Hiding Vig-hood only creates end-game problems at this point, so it's better to have SK squirm (and thus commit more tells) than remain hidden.
MMM can't happen by Ythan's IC explanation (that they are confirmed from the start).
B should not claim unless placed at L-1 or L-2. B anonymity is useful to hamper the remaining scum, and SK doesn't care one way or another (unless they claim Vig, B roleblocks, and the block fizzles, which won't happen).
Guh. The words.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:29 am

Post by AGar »

I assume he's referring to #152 where I said there has to be at least two Ms because you weren't announced as an innocent child.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:35 am

Post by Mafuyu »

Yes and no. He referenced your actions, not your post. Namely, the fact that you didn't unvote.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 9:04 am

Post by Ythill »

Mod iso10 wrote:
Mafuyu
(3):
Ythill
,
Nobody Special
,
Andrius

Fate (1):
animorpherv1

drmyshottyizsik (1): Fishythefish
Nobody Special
(4):
Mafuyu
,
nhammen
, Fate, AGar

not voting (2):
drmyshottyizsik
Unsight
Early wagons are bait for distancing. Fate and AGar get scumpoints here.
Mod iso15 wrote:
Mafuyu
(4):
Nobody Special
,
Andrius
, AGar, Unsight
Fate (1):
animorpherv1

Ythill
(1):
Mafuyu

drmyshottyizsik (1): Fishythefish
Nobody Special
(2): Fate,
nhammen


not voting (2):
drmyshottyizsik
Ythill
I really doubt AGar-scum piles on behind his two buddies, though it's possible Unsight did. Someone (Andrius?) made a comment that scum are unlikley to all be on the same wagon. Was it before or after this VC? If before, Unsight gets scumpoints.
Mod iso17 wrote:
Mafuyu
(4):
Nobody Special
, Unsight, drmyshottyizsik,
Ythill

Fate (1):
animorpherv1

drmyshottyizsik (4): Fishythefish, Fate,
Mafuyu
, AGar
Nobody Special
(1):
nhammen


not voting (1):
Andrius
Andrius unvoted but didn't shift to shotty. One of shotty/Fishy/Fate/AGar is a buddy.
Mod iso20 wrote:
Mafuyu
(0):
Fate (1):
animorpherv1

animorpherv1
(2):
Andrius
,
Nobody Special

drmyshottyizsik (4): Fishythefish, Fate,
Mafuyu
, AGar
Andrius
(1):
Ythill

Nobody Special
(1):
nhammen

AGar (1): Unsight

not voting (1):
drmyshottyizsik
Two scum all by themselves on a lurker wagon? Either shotty is their buddy or he's town they felt was going to be lynched and a buddy was already on the wagon. This backs up the conclusion from the last wagon.
Mod iso27 wrote:
Just a Bit Off-Center
(2):
Andrius
,
Nobody Special

Fishythefish (3):
Mafuyu
, drmyshottyizsik,
Ythill

Andrius
(2):
Just a Bit Off-Center
, Fishythefish
Nobody Special
(3):
nhammen
, Fate, AGar
AGar (1): Unsight
Why didn't one of them support the Fishy lynch? Staying parked on a replaced lurker with suspicion building against both of them seems really strange. We need to look at this one in context.
Mod iso28 wrote:Just a Bit Off-Center (1):
Andrius

Andrius (3): Fishythefish, AGar, drmyshottyizsik
Nobody Special
(6): Fate,
Ythill
,
Mafuyu
,
Just a Bit Off-Center
,
nhammen
,
Nobody Special

AGar (1): Unsight
This VC is awesome. Why would NS self-hammer rather than reserve the hammer for a buddy, especially as a goon? Abysmal play or Fate-scum? I plan on looking at isos too but this VC makes Fate look really bad, especially combined with everything else above.

VOTE: Fate

VCs in general point to Unsight or AGar as SK. The former because he was playing very shy with his vote movement; the latter because he was hopping around between big wagons like he didn't care about the lynch. But, again, I intend to look at isos to double-check all of this.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 9:15 am

Post by Mafuyu »

Don't make yourself green next time. =P
Guh. The words.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 9:21 am

Post by Ythill »

Was looking over my last post and noticed that I missed some coloration and the related analysis...
Mod iso28 wrote:
Just a Bit Off-Center
(1):
Andrius

Andrius
(3): Fishythefish, AGar, drmyshottyizsik
Nobody Special
(6): Fate,
Ythill
,
Mafuyu
,
Just a Bit Off-Center
,
nhammen
,
Nobody Special

AGar (1): Unsight
Look at the Andrius wagon. If Fate is not scum, NS may have been hammering to freeze a bus on Andrius, because a late shift to him while NS is being pushed into the noose seems safe. Note that the same four candidtaes are sullied here as earlier.

@Mafuyu:
If you don't like me being green, do your own homework.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:01 am

Post by Fate »

Been sick and working often.

Vote: Ythill
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:05 am

Post by Fate »

I still take it that Drmy's the SK just for being scummy as hell in general and having few connections to both flipped scum.

Ythill is the surprise surprise last scum. I've suspected him for awhile for that whole Mason-outing shebangabang earlier, but I knew sooner rather than later he would bus his partners so...

FOLLOW YTHILL TO HIS BUDDIES THEN WHEN THEY IZ DEAD LYNCH THE HEADMASTA
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 1:45 pm

Post by Fate »

COME OUT AND PLAY GUYS.

YTHILL I LOVE TEH 180 in #446 OF: "UH, RIGHT, BUT WHEN FATE FLIPS TOWN ITS CUZ NS HAMMERED TO STOP ANDRIUS' POTENTIAL LYNCH. IM NOT SCUM ON THE WAGON NUH UH NO WAY"
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