Mini 237- Basic Mafia - Game over!

[d8P]

FoS: Sineish

- are you defending Nightfall?

They may have picked Choco off because he was a confirmed innocent, in which case I'll probably be next. But it could be for other reasons -
1) One of the masons is scum, which is very unlikely considering what Choco's role PM said (I was a bit suspect of Choco because mine didn't say anything that cleared the other masons, but he's fully cleared now, so I guess I'm too paranoid).
2) The scum wanted to cast suspicion on the other masons, in which case they seriously fouled up, again because of Choco's PM.
3) They're inexperienced.

None of these answers why they didn't choose me. I was pretty sure it would be me. Anyway, the other mason knows how to prove his/her innocence in the case of my death.

May turn that FoS into a VoS on rereading.

[Mr Stoofer]

There can be no doubt that scum killed ChocoCid becuase he was virtually a confirmed innocent - as d8p said.

Sineish must know that and I agree with d8p that he deserves a big old FOS.

[Seol]

Having reviewed the thread, I think Sineish, Falcone and ibaesha are our Mafia.

[Falcone]

Vote: Sineish

His explanation for the penultimate vote on vIQles doesn't convince me. And I think it was very obvious that with the doctor dead, one of the outed masons would be killed. The mafia can't let confirmed innocents live until the endgame.

[ChocoCid]

[ibaesha]

Having reviewed the thread, I think Sineish, Falcone and ibaesha are our Mafia.

I know you're wrong, because I'm not. However, I believe Sineish is. I'm also curious what brought you to this conclusion. Usually you have more to say than one-line accusations.

Anyways:

vote:Sineish and FOS:Nightfall

I still think Nightfall is suspicious for the reasons I mentioned yesterday. And I think the case against Sineish has been fairly well explained already.

[Nightfall]

As the deadline approached on day 1, the lynch-leader was Nightfall. But that bandwagon never really got going, even when it looked as though the alternative might be no lynch. On the other hand, the viQles bandwagon built up much faster. Now admittedly there was substantially more reason to think that viQles might be scum that Nightfall; but the difference in the speed of ther bandwagons was startling. Scum trying to save their buddy?

Vote: Nightfall

.

Stoofer, I was being band wagoned because of my low post count.
Innocent as viQles was lynched because of a believed scum tell.

[Nightfall]

Sorry that ment to read...

Stoofer, I was being band wagoned because of my low post count post content.
Innocent as viQles was, he was lynched because of a believed scum tell.

[Sineish]

His explanation for the penultimate vote on vIQles doesn't convince me.

What's more likely, that I deliberately mis-represented the lynch position in a situation where d8P had already placed a VOS, that, were it a vote, my vote would have been the lynching vote, or that I was stupid and miscounted. What benefit was there in misleading people when vIQles's lynch was inevitable?

Having reviewed the thread, I think Sineish, Falcone and ibaesha are our Mafia.

Vote: Seol

You are usually so verbose, and yet you make this statement with no supporting evidence. Added to this, your 'gut' vote for CA yesterday and your vehement rejection of vIQles's doctor claim make me think something strange is going on.

And I think it was very obvious that with the doctor dead, one of the outed masons would be killed. The mafia can't let confirmed innocents live until the endgame.

Yes, but ChocoCid's claim was far from 100%, and it was only the first night. As things now stand, the third mason can basically confirm themselves as 100% innocent, which will be of huge advantage to the town in an endgame scenario. By keeping ChocoCid alive, this third mason could have been forced to support ChocoCid earlier, especially if they had killed d8P instead. If I had had the choice, and, if he were not scum, I would have chosen Seol last night.

I hope this makes sense.

S.

[Seol]

Well, that was more effective than I thought it would be. Obviously I have a basis for my comment, but I wanted to see what reactions just leaving it on its own would have.

They were educational.

Reaction 1:

Vote: Sineish

His explanation for the penultimate vote on vIQles doesn't convince me. And I think it was very obvious that with the doctor dead, one of the outed masons would be killed. The mafia can't let confirmed innocents live until the endgame.

...was no reaction at all. I'd just said I thought Falcone was Mafia, and he totally ignores the statement but goes and votes one of my other named targets. Needless to say, quite a scummy response.

The second reaction:

I know you're wrong, because I'm not. However, I believe Sineish is. I'm also curious what brought you to this conclusion. Usually you have more to say than one-line accusations.

Anyways:

vote:Sineish

and

FOS:Nightfall

I still think Nightfall is suspicious for the reasons I mentioned yesterday. And I think the case against Sineish has been fairly well explained already.

The least scummy response of the three, and from the person who I'm least sure of.

Finally:

Vote: Seol

You are usually so verbose, and yet you make this statement with no supporting evidence. Added to this, your 'gut' vote for CA yesterday and your vehement rejection of vIQles's doctor claim make me think something strange is going on.

Straight out on the offensive - not asking why I thought it, just straight to a vote, with a couple of other bases for suspicion thrown in (by the way, I stand by the what I say in respect of the vIQleS claim yesterday). Interestingly, you follow with this:

If I had had the choice, and, if he were not scum, I would have chosen Seol last night.

So, last night, you thought I was the biggest threat to the scum... but now I've said "I think you're scum", I'm scum?

Assessment - the responses make me more suspicious of Sineish and Falcone, and less so of ibaesha. Reasons behind the original statement to follow in a separate post (my PC is crashing a lot, I've already lost this post once).

[Stewie]

I don't think reaction one is scummy at all. As town, I would have done one of the following:

A) ignore the accusation, since it was not explained.
B) ask why the accusation was given, without adding a vote
C) acknowledge the post, but say it's at least partly wrong.

These apply only in this situation, where Seol said who he thinks was scum

without

voting for them.

The only response that struck me as scummy is sineish's. However, I will wait for seol's full explanation, and a vote count, before adding my vote.

[Seol]

However, I will wait for seol's full explanation, and a vote count, before adding my vote.

I'm going to have to keep you waiting, I'm afraid - I've written 80% of the explanation out twice, now, and had my PC crash and take the thing with it (since the crashes I was complaining about in my last post). It's 3am and I need to be up for work tomorrow. Furthermore, I'm out tomorrow evening, but I'll see if I can either find time at work or after Magic to get it up. Otherwise, it might be Tuesday before I can post the whole thing.

[mikeburnfire]

Holy crap. The case against vIQles was rushed faster than the E.T. videogame (which was made in six weeks and caused the historic videogame crash of 1983, ultimately destroying the videogame industry until Super Mario for the NES revived it). I can understand it though-- he DID act suspicious. If it weren't for post #134, I might have voted him too.

I'm more interested in why ChocoCid was targeted. Effectively, the scum have used one of their kills (rather than us having to use a lynch) to completely confirm the mason group. Additionally, they chose the mason with the more dubious claim, even though there was little chance of them being blocked as we had just lost our doctor

...
You must be one of the only people who didn't believe their claim before the kill. And why is CC's claim more dubious? CC and d8p vouched for each other, so if one's scum then so's the other.

[vikingfan]

Vote Count:

Sineish- 2 (Falcone, ibaesha)
Nightfall- 1 (Mr Stoofer)
Seol- 1 (Sineish)

Not voting (6): Commodore Amazing, d8P, mikeburnfire, Nightfall, Seol, Stewie

6 to lynch

[Falcone]

Nightfall, you were being attacked because you lurked (as in posting regularly but without making a contribution to the game), you were aware of it (post 93), and when you finally made a game-related post, you voted for Mr Stoofer for very weak reasons. You were on five votes at a certain point and you were almost certainly going to be lynched at the deadline. Yet, you managed to escape without having to claim. You even indicated that you’d rather not claim (post 230) Oh, and in your first post of the new Day, you pretend that you’re being attacked for no reason.

FOS: Nightfall

(as far as that’s still needed).

Seol, I did ignore your post because it’s impossible and unnecessary to defend yourself against unfounded accusations. If you had given reasons, I would have made a defense. If there had been several people saying I was scummy for no reasons or with vague reasons, I would have asked them to clarify so I could defend myself. In this case it’s just one unfounded accusation, so I didn’t see the need to respond. I’m awaiting your case against me.

[Mr Stoofer]

Having reviewed the thread, I think Sineish, Falcone and ibaesha are our Mafia.

I'd like to read Seol's analysis before I decide whether to switch my vote.

[Commodore Amazing]

vote: Seol

[Seol]

OK, the reasons for my comment. It basically comes down to this exchange here:

Ill

unvote: Nightfall

and

vote: Sineish

for the d8p thing and for being the nearest thing we've got to a lurker (as opposed to a non-poster). Weak reasons, but I prefer my vote to have a slender basis than no basis at all.

Nightfall may post a lot, but I don't see much content in his posts. Isn't that typical lurker-behaviour? So why unvote him and vote for Sineish, who has less posts than Nightfall, but more content? I don't think he deserves suspicion for the d8P thing. His question and FOS were reasonable in my opinion.

Unvote: Commodore Amazing
Vote: Mr. Stoofer

That was predictable.

As for the "that was predictable" comment,

have you spotted some link between Falcone and me

, or was it just a reaction to him voting for you?

Huh? Major group tell there - there'd been no mention of any tie between the two to that point, so what made Sineish think that? Chances are, there

is

a link between them. And seeing as they can't be masons, that leaves only one option.

Furthermore, at no point did either vote, FOS, or even express suspicion of the other - the only times either spoke about the other was in support. For example -

I don't see what in Sineish's post makes one think that he is a townie with no abilities. Maybe ChocoCid can explain why he said that?

Nightfall may post a lot, but I don't see much content in his posts. Isn't that typical lurker-behaviour? So why unvote him and vote for Sineish, who has less posts than Nightfall, but more content?

As for ibaesha, that was simply a process of elimination - one player was the mason (not too hard to work out), others had been explicitly attacked and pressured - others were still possible, but ibaesha fitted best. I'd go through all the various steps I went through to justify this, except it would involve outing the mason - but I will say that my case, such as it is, is much weaker against ibaesha than the other two. But for corroborating evidence, note that other than an opening random vote (which, if anything, reinforces my theory), none of those three ever had a bad word to say about any of the others, let alone an FOS or vote. Between the three of them, they covered

everyone else

.

If I'm right, this theory also explains why Nightfall's wagon never took off yesterday -

most of the scum were already on it

(Falcone and ibaesha). The same was true of the Chococid wagon (ibaesha and Sineish were on it) and the vIQleS wagon (ibaesha and Sineish).

So, my reasons - one major tell, and a lot of voting pattern analysis.

vote: Seol

You just don't like me, do you?

[Seol]

Almost forgot!

vote: Sineish

.

[ibaesha]

Well, this really sucks. I went to preview my post and mafiascum decided to quite working. Here goes trying again.

I'm not sure how to defend this. I voted for who I thought was suspicious and because I'm not scum, I wouldn't be paying attention to who those votes might tie me to. I can re-explain all three of my not random votes, but I think I already explained them yesterday. As for not having a bad thing to say about Falcone or Sineish, here goes. Falcone has appeared fairly pro-town to me thus far, therefore I haven't had much to say about him. I had some unvoiced suspicions of Sineish, first the lurking (noted when I did my re-read), then the "Oops is that the 6th vote?" thing.

At any rate, I won't always voice every suspicion I have, or I A) would never shut up or B) Would confuse everyone as much as I confuse myself. (Which isn't good.)

Here's just one example from my notes of the stuff that I think but don't say.

- I'm not sure what is suspicious about CA, but if he's innocent, then one of Stewie and Seol are most likely scum. It's doubtful that they would both be scum going after him that way.

My vote stays where it is and so does my FOS. That was a grand attempt at connecting the dots, Seol, but I'm afraid you're mistaken, at least in regards to me.

[Mr Stoofer]

OK, I'm convinced enough to switch my vote.

None of Seol's points on their own are really decisive (nothing ever is: see the viQles debacle). But they do add up to a decent argument IMHO. The point I think is of most significance is this one:

But for corroborating evidence, note that other than an opening random vote (which, if anything, reinforces my theory), none of those three ever had a bad word to say about any of the others, let alone an FOS or vote. Between the three of them, they covered

everyone else

.

I presume Seol meant to add the words "until today".

Anyway, this analysis is more persuasive than my initial reasons for voting Nightfall, so

unvote: Nightfall

and

vote: Sineish

.

[Commodore Amazing]

I'm a little dense, but I think I finally figured out what's going on here.

unvote: Seol, vote: Sineish

. One more is a lynch.

[Falcone]

To start at the beginning, I have no connection whatsoever to Sineish or Ibaesha. Yeah, shocking, I know. Of course, I can only explain my own actions to you, not those of other players. I agreed with Sineish about the d8P-affair because what he said made sense. And I voted for Mr Stoofer for his switch to Sineish because at that time Nightfall seemed more suspicious to me. I don't think I said anything (good or bad) about Ibaesha in this game. It's a fact that I was suspicious of or FOS'sed or voted for several players yesterday, but it was Day 1 and I just wanted to share my thoughts with the town.

Note that I’m voting for Sineish at the moment, for his behaviour yesterday evening and this morning.

Note that Seol is using the same quote twice as evidence against me (or to be exact, as evidence for the idea that there’s a connection between me and Sineish). That seems to imply that the evidence for his accusation is quite weak.

Also note that his analysis of yesterday’s bandwagons is, to say the least, one-sided. I think it’s very well possible that Nightfall’s wagon never got up to speed because his scum buddies didn’t want to see him lynched. ChocoCid’s wagon stopped because he claimed mason. And the vIQles wagon was lightning fast and must have had a lot of townies on it. Incidentally, the only wagon I was on was the still-suspicious Nightfall, and not the proven-innocent-by-dead vIQles or ChocoCid. (To be fair, I would have voted for vIQles hadn’t Stewie been quicker.)

At least I’m happy that you chose the right one to vote for.

Commodore, do you mind sharing your reasons for your vote on Seol?

[Falcone]

Wow, writing that post took me some time, so I didn't see the three posts before it.
1) Commodore, I see you've switched your vote, but I'm still interested in your reason to vote for Seol before.
2)

Unvote: Sineish

to give him time to claim. This is an incredibly fast bandwagon, shouldn't we be a bit more careful? And if Sineish does turn out scum and you all want to lynch me for this, go ahead - it would still be a one for one trade.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm a little dense, but I think I finally figured out what's going on here.

unvote: Seol, vote: Sineish

. One more is a lynch.

I don't know why but this post makes me think that Seol and CA might be up to something...

MOD

: can we have a vount count please?