Newbie 985 Game over

[Nikanor]

To quickly address the issue with Zach

I basically suspect him (Zach) because of his (Zombeh's) arguments with Zach

, my past gut feeling, and my arguments with him and his somehow "peculiar" so to say, way of playing at the time. When I come back I will re-read to see if there is really that much big a reason for the vote and if I truly have anything on him. Np about the butchering of my name though lol

If the bolded is the case, then half the possible kills last night would point at Zach, since lots of people wanted Zach lynched yesterday.

I'm going to withhold my vote for now. I need some time to redevelop my reads, since I was wrong about a Kalofer-David scumteam yesterday.

[NashiNashi]

Um, aren't you're the one who voted tvell and jumped off real fast, saying something about mafia might quicklynch and we need to use the time we have left?

Then you come in 5 days till deadline and hammer away DP. I think my suspicions are well founded.

Um, did you read the part about no quick lynching

when I'm not sure about who is the Mafia and it was a vote for the sake of vote?

[FakeGod]

So you voted tvell when you weren't sure who was the mafia and it was a vote for the sake of voting, and that's why you're perfectly excused to just unvote him soon as it seemed like pressure is building on him?

Did you just admit to having randomly voted tvell for no apparent reasons other than for the sake of voting?

And you haven't answered my other point. Why did you come in with 5 days left till deadline and hammer?

[NashiNashi]

So you voted tvell when you weren't sure who was the mafia and it was a vote for the sake of voting, and that's why you're perfectly excused to just unvote him soon as it seemed like pressure is building on him?

Did you just admit to having randomly voted tvell for no apparent reasons other than for the sake of voting?

And you haven't answered my other point. Why did you come in with 5 days left till deadline and hammer?

1. Obviously. Unless you are one of those people who actually think it's a good idea to explicitedly state that you are pressure voting for pressure voting, which is a terrible way to play. I pressured, and I'm glad I did.

2. I have stated before - ideally yes, I would wait for the final day. Except that the most suspicious person have done what I viewed as attempt to bypass a voted lynch and tried to kill a slightly less suspicious person via another method. In that case waiting with a known imminent likely town kill would be stupid.

And FakeGod, you have posted twice since my question to you, and tried to evade it by asking me questions that I've already answered. Why are you avoiding my question?

[FakeGod]

Voting randomly isn't the same thing as voting for pressure. If you were voting for pressure, you would've kept your vote on him even when he goes to L-1, so that you could get a claim and etc.

I don't understand "In that case waiting with ........would be stupid." If you could explain it better, that would be great.

Your question? You simply observed that I was getting "jumpy", but I was simply pointing out inconsistencies in your actions (being opposed to lynch vs. quicklynching), and inconsistencies = scum in my mind. I don't know what's there to explain.

I don't care what your stance is, but all I ask is that you stay true to one stance.

[NashiNashi]

Voting randomly isn't the same thing as voting for pressure. If you were voting for pressure, you would've kept your vote on him even when he goes to L-1, so that you could get a claim and etc.

I don't understand "In that case waiting with ........would be stupid." If you could explain it better, that would be great.

Your question? You simply observed that I was getting "jumpy", but I was simply pointing out inconsistencies in your actions (being opposed to lynch vs. quicklynching), and inconsistencies = scum in my mind. I don't know what's there to explain.

I don't care what your stance is, but all I ask is that you stay true to one stance.

You were accusative when I didn't want to lynch someone who I was not convinced of being scummy, and you were accusative when I did lynch someone who I was convinced of being a scum. That's pretty inconsistent too.

[FakeGod]

Pointing out inconsistencies isn't inconsistent.

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

Zachrulez (1): Kalofer
NashiNashi (1): tvellalott

not voting: FakeGod, Zachrulez, Abe27342, Nikanor, NashiNashi
alive: 7 majority: 4

[Nikanor]

FakeGod, what do you think of Nashi^2?
Nashi^2, what do you think of FakeGod?

[FakeGod]

Nashi has cool avi.

[FakeGod]

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Zachrulez (1): DavidParker
DavidParker (5): Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi
Abe27342 (1): tvellalott
tvellalott (1): FakeGod
Kalofer (1):

Zombeh-Pug

Theory 1

: There was 2 scum in the DP wagon, and no scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are two scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi.

Theory 2

: There was 0 scum in the DP wagon, and 2 scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are two scum among tvell and Fakegod.

Theory 3

: There was 1 scum in the DP wagon, and 1 scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are one scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi, and one scum among tvell and FakeGod.

Good people of Newbie 985, which theory do you believe is the most likely?

With your next post, please indicate which theory you believe is most probable.

[tvellalott]

When you put it like that, I obviously have to say theory one is most probable, especially with a newb game. I think both mafia would definately be on a townie bandwagon.

[Abe27342]

Theory 2 is unlikely.
In fact, basically all you are saying fakegod is asking people how likely they think each person to be scum. Not that that's a bad thing. I'm just saying, basically (7 nCr 2) = 7*6/2=21
(5 nCr 2) + (2 nCr 2) + (5 nCr 1) (2 nCr 1) = 10+1+5*2 = 21

Theories 1 and 3 are therefore equally likely, each with 10/21 probability of occurring.

That's of course, by pure chance. But I do see reasoning in tvellalot's saying theory 1 is the most likely occuring NOT by pure chance. I'm actually going to think about whether you can draw any conclusions from that (Probably not but worth a try!)

[Abe27342]

Nah, you can't draw conclusions on it from math unless you arbitrarily decide probabilities of the three scenarios based on what your mind thinks. However, that's not a smart thing to do.

[Zachrulez]

I'm thinking theory 3.

Parker was so scummy I don't think that wagon needed 2 scum on it to lynch him.

If there's a scum on the lynch wagon, I'm thinking it's one of Nashi or Abe.

I can't see Kalofer's stance on me being a scum gambit, I think he's most likely paranoid town.

I still don't like Tvel, especially today. His vote is weak, and his presence in thread has been lacking.

Vote: Tvellalot

[tvellalott]

I'm thinking theory 3.

Parker was so scummy I don't think that wagon needed 2 scum on it to lynch him.

If there's a scum on the lynch wagon, I'm thinking it's one of Nashi or Abe.

I can't see Kalofer's stance on me being a scum gambit, I think he's most likely paranoid town.

I still don't like Tvel, especially today. His vote is weak, and his presence in thread has been lacking.

Vote: Tvellalot

What a load of rubbish. This thread has been dead since the start of day 2. My presence isn't lacking any more than anyone else. In fact, as soon as FakeGod put his three scenarios out, I was there to reply. As for my vote being weak, yours is even weaker.
"Parker was so scummy..." Clearly all the 'scum-tells' he was giving off were delusions. He was town ffs.
You sir are a fool, but I think that most likely makes you town. My vote on Nash stands. Dropping the hammer on a townie is enough reason for a first vote when the game is as dead as this one.

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

Zachrulez (1): Kalofer
tvellalott (1): Zachrulez
NashiNashi (1): tvellalott

not voting: FakeGod, Abe27342, Nikanor, NashiNashi
alive: 7 majority: 4

[FakeGod]

Abe, the chances will be different for each people since people will have one clear each. (themselves)

[NashiNashi]

Re how I feel about FakeGod. I don't get a strong anti-town vibe from him, a fairly active contributing player who is also driving the game. However I don't get the pro-town read either, as despite of saying a lot, he had never done anything useful. He just appears to be useful. This three scenario comment? Typical of appearing useful but it's really stating the obvious while offers nothing on scum hunting.

Regard to the comment on "Pointing out inconsistencies isn't inconsistent.". It would be a valid point if he was being vigilante about my hammering of David after stating I'd prefer wait for the full day. However, he was more than inconsistent himself, as he tried to call me scummy because I didn't want to put Tv into a lynchable position at post #380, depsite of being fully aware of my position of not wanting an early lynch, a position I changed due to the modkill situation arised at #422.

At least my consistency was caused by an immediate change of situation - the modkill attempt which makes waiting for a lynch no longer seemed like a good idea. FakeGod still hasn't offered why he is inconsistent. Timeline here is important.

So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he's a scum, even if I'm not completely set on it.

[tvellalott]

Re how I feel about FakeGod. I don't get a strong anti-town vibe from him, a fairly active contributing player who is also driving the game. However I don't get the pro-town read either, as despite of saying a lot, he had never done anything useful. He just appears to be useful. This three scenario comment? Typical of appearing useful but it's really stating the obvious while offers nothing on scum hunting.

Regard to the comment on "Pointing out inconsistencies isn't inconsistent.". It would be a valid point if he was being vigilante about my hammering of David after stating I'd prefer wait for the full day. However, he was more than inconsistent himself, as he tried to call me scummy because I didn't want to put Tv into a lynchable position at post #380, depsite of being fully aware of my position of not wanting an early lynch, a position I changed due to the modkill situation arised at #422.

At least my consistency was caused by an immediate change of situation - the modkill attempt which makes waiting for a lynch no longer seemed like a good idea. FakeGod still hasn't offered why he is inconsistent. Timeline here is important.

So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he's a scum, even if I'm not completely set on it.

UNVOTE

This is a fantastic post. I never thought about it like that. I thought that 3 scenario post was good scum-hunting, but I suppose it was stating the obvious. I think you should put your money where you mouth is.
Enough fvcking around people. Lets get the game MOVING!

VOTE FakeGod

[FakeGod]

When you put it like that, I obviously have to say theory one is most probable, especially with a newb game. I think both mafia would definately be on a townie bandwagon.

This is a fantastic post. I never thought about it like that. I thought that 3 scenario post was good scum-hunting, but I suppose it was stating the obvious. I think you should put your money where you mouth is.
Enough fvcking around people. Lets get the game MOVING!

VOTE FakeGod

facepalm

Nashi, if tvell's actions aren't inconsistent to you, I don't know what is.

Plus, I think you're misunderstanding my previous stances. I hate to keep repeating, but I just don't see how I'm inconsistent when I didn't disagree/agree with your previous posts but rather criticized your willingness to switch out of them quickly.

[FakeGod]

In fact, basically all you are saying fakegod is asking people how likely they think each person to be scum. Not that that's a bad thing.

I'm aware. Except I disguised it to catch scum.

Nashi, please answer which theory is most probable.

[Abe27342]

tvell, what else do you find fantastic about nashi^2's post? I agree, it was well put, but the only thing you mentioned, I pointed out earlier. See FakeGod's quote directly above me.
And yeah fakegod, the chances will be different for everybody;
Person on the bandwagon: 2/5 , 1/15 , 8/15
Person not on the bandwagon: 6/10, 0, 4/10
That still doesn't help you though, as if you do the "math" all you do is discover, OH MY GOD! Everybody has a 1/3 chance of being scum (6 people besides you, 2 scum remain)

[Kalofer]

I'm back, sorry for being one day late, (the day I was here I was too lazy/didn't know what to write) and I kinda still don't know. Right now I feel comfortable with my vote on Zach.

As it is, I can practically guarantee that at least one of the two of them is scum [Kalofer and David Parker]. I just can't see any possibility where neither is after the interactions we've seen.

That is exactly what I was thinking about you and DP and I'm pretty much sure it was also what DP was thinking about me and you. Since DP is dead and he was town I'm right now pretty convinced that you are scum. As for Nashi and Tvell I really can't say who's scummier and it pains me not to be able to vote for the both of them so I will vote for neither.

I do not wish to. I have null tell from David.

There are much better lynches that could give town more info. (contrary to David lynch where we wouldn't get much info due to his crazy playstyle)

This is the main if not only reason why I think Fake is either definitely scum or definitely town and I really can't decide whether he wrote that as scum knowing DP is town and thus saving himself trouble later on...Or he's simply honest town (I agreed with him on that post, I lynched David primarily because I would have felt like a complete idiot to be fooled that someone who plays so extravagantly and for him to turn out to be scum). Unfortunately he went on and threw everything away by scoring an own goal. And for the reason above I am leaning towards Fake's theory 1 as I'm pretty much sure that both scum knew DP was being quite useless (no offense dude, but the best thing you did was your incrimination of me) and wanted him lynched as soon as possible (though what Zach said was very true about the "he was scummy enough already" and there is the possibility that exactly because this is a newbie game, the scum avoided both voting for the same person to be more cautious (this leads to WIFOM though).
However I agree most with Theory 4: There are 7 people in the game, and 2 of them are scum. Hence there are 2 scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi, tvell and FakeGod.

I also don't like the fact that Fake and Nashi are arguing so much but neither has voted for the other...what? Especially considering the fact that FakeGod said (or implied) :"If someone doesn't vote I'm taking it as a scumsign". One must at most forgive but never forget. And right now while I've been writing this my mind changed and I am going to vote for Fake who right now has become seemingly more scummier in my eyes than Zach (I don't care what kind of sign you're taking that as).

UNVOTE: Zachrulez
VOTE: FakeGod

[Kalofer]

Oh my God (not you Fake) *facepalm* :@ total screw up with the quote thing...sorry.