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Post Post #3525 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:08 pm

Post by Iecerint »

If I am lynched today, I will die.

Still, I totally don't understand why people think I'm implicated in the cult. If O really was cult to start, the parsimonious explanation seems to be that Katy was CL, since her Benevolent Spirit result doesn't make sense otherwise.

Edit: It does create a plothole with dram flipping town, though, come to think of it, since she got Batman flavor correct, or something. :?
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Post Post #3526 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:16 pm

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Iecerint it's mostly because Tarhalindur said that he was planning on targeting you. Other than that I don't think there's a great reason to think you should be cult for the most part. If we end up day vigging Tarhalindur and you get a PM saying that you've lost your soul then we should kill you for your own good as it should hopefully keep your town win condition intact (assuming that you're not mafia (and I don't think you should be) or cult on your own which seems a bit unlikely to me.)

One of my posts last page gives my current cult theory. In summary I think that LynchMePls was the original cult and got activated by Faraday using a kill on him. Perhaps I'm fooling myself with a slick explanation but it fits the evidence I've got to work with better than anything else at this point so far as I can tell.

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Post Post #3527 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:21 pm

Post by Nikanor »

We only had ONE cult wincon alive at the end of n1, so if LMP became cult on n1, he was the only cult member. Otherwise, there is a zombiemaker about, and the zombieness passes from person to person.
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Post Post #3528 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:28 pm

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Nikanor, that statement seems to be true. My current theory is that LynchMePls did indeed become the cult member at the end of Night One and passed on the cult through zombificiation. If we take out this batch of Zombies and then more pop up I'll be shown to be wrong. If we kill Tarhalindur and Iecerint (or whoever Tarhalindur says he targeted when he shows up) today then we can kill Katy and whoever the most likely remaining Zombie maker might be tomorrow. If that doesn't win the game then we can re-evaluate. Tonight we should have plenty of full tracks going on (three assuming I use mine) as well as a redirect and I bet we can figure out what actions aren't happening how they're supposed to. Now that Plum is back in the game as Sobriquet we've even got a confirmed non-town to send redirects to. We should be in pretty good shape at this point.

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Post Post #3529 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:31 pm

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Nikanor, also, I'd like you to give me a QT with Parama tonight. That should link up the networks fairly well and allow for coordination of tracking to make sure that we do this right. If you're not going to do it I want to know ahead of time rather than being surprised like I was last night.

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Post Post #3530 (ISO) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:36 pm

Post by ooba »

Mighty Orbots wrote:@ooba, focusing on Fate wasn't a particularly good plan despite what people said about it and Fate wasn't going to be focusing on VasudeVa anyhow which, if memory serves was supposed to be part of that. I think that VasudeVa's choice made more sense than your plan would have.
I asked him to focus on Iece - my opinion was that if we needed to lynch him - we should be able to (and get rid of a scummy Iece too). He decided that wasn't good enough and
- contemplated focusing Fate since VV's lynch would ability confirm Fate.
But he didn't do that too since he knew town might lynch him.

Basically he's been playing on survival mode ever since he replaced in. No real opinions - just lurking around in the background ...

Vote: VV


I still don't see how it was a great play for them to redirect VV->SB - it boils down to whether we think SB would have been lynched if she had shot town. I don't think SB would have been lynched for shooting any of TNM, CMAR, Fate (Other people on her list).


Now that Plum is back in the game as Sobriquet we've even got a confirmed non-town to send redirects to. We should be in pretty good shape at this point.
Worst case scenario - if we are looking at a day Hypnotist cult - we could have 3 recruits + a leader more (I'm excluding Tar, Xite from this) - so I would rather be cautious than not.


Fate, I'll apologize when I know you're not cult for sure :P


Nik, I ask you again - did you target me for a QT yesterday?


I like the Lich theory - but its too perfect - consider the following things:
- Tar might have been recruited before - I still find the entire him claiming "Hey I was worship stripped" staged
-- If his wincon changed to cult, he was playing against his wincon when he said that

- In which case the entire claiming part might have been an elaborate set up for the "Cult = Lich cult" theory. Nik, did you come up with the Lich cult idea on your own or was it discussed in any of the QTs ?


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Post Post #3531 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:08 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, your hypnotist cult shouldn't change role names or be aware that they've been recruited right? Because if that's true we've got pretty strong evidence that it's not the case in that we've got one confirmed zombie (who flipped neutral which will almost certainly end up being cult) and Tarhalindur both seems to have had his role name changed and was aware that something happened. Further, the only reason that we know about it is that he chose to bring it up. Had he not done that I have to imagine that we wouldn't have been looking at him as someone we're likely to want to kill today. He might have come up eventually but if he's in a traditional cult I can't think of a way that he'd be better off if he didn't just lay low and let the cult mechanic work on it's own.

We can be pretty sure that VasudeVa's night actions don't zombify as Snow_Bunny didn't flip Zombie of any sort. You don't seem to think that he's mafia as right now you're apparently pretty convinced that Katy has that role. As far as I can tell you're voting for him because he didn't follow your worship plan (but rather seems to be using his worship and his focus in a way that looks a lot like the way it was intended and is sensible) and because you're worried that he might be part of a day recruiting cult that we've got reasons to think doesn't work like you seem to be assuming they would.

I've got no problem lynching VasudeVa if he's got a reasonable chance to be scum in some way. That's true whether it would kill me or not. At this point that does not seem to be the case at all given the evidence that we've got to work with. Right now I'm inclined to call your latest vote garbage and I don't expect that from you.

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Post Post #3532 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:14 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, a mafia redirect of a town VasudeVa (or even a cult VasudeVa telling the truth about his ability) to Snow_Bunny would protect one of the mafia's sources of night kills from anything but a lynch for the following day night cycle no matter what else happened in the game and take down a non-mafia member if she did get lynched for whatever reason the next day. Other than redirecting a kill I don't know what would have made better use of it and if they were worried about watchers they could have been leery of going with that choice whereas VasudeVa was pretty unlikely to be watched. I don't know what the mafia's actual thought process was but that seems like a pretty good use of a redirect to me given the information that was public at the time.

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Post Post #3533 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:36 am

Post by ooba »

Mighty Orbots wrote:@ooba, a mafia redirect of a town VasudeVa (or even a cult VasudeVa telling the truth about his ability) to Snow_Bunny would protect one of the mafia's sources of night kills from anything but a lynch for the following day night cycle no matter what else happened in the game and take down a non-mafia member if she did get lynched for whatever reason the next day.
Other than redirecting a kill I don't know what would have made better use of it
and if they were worried about watchers they could have been leery of going with that choice whereas VasudeVa was pretty unlikely to be watched. I don't know what the mafia's actual thought process was but that seems like a pretty good use of a redirect to me given the information that was public at the time.

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This. The DTM kill being redirected was the best use of the skill.

Plus, you've forgotten one fact - there was probably some amount of truth in what DS claimed about Mafia being immune to cult recruitment. Therefore SB not flipping cult makes sense because of that.
- Town shouldn't really care about dying if it helps the cause. VV is scummy - just ISO him.
- You might say he used his skill in a good way but his clear jumping from Iece - lets focus on Fate - finally settling on you indicates a clear aversion to being lynched.

Anyway I'd like VV to respond before you respond for him... You've been far too soft on him from the start.


Your theory that its a lich cult has holes too, namely
- Why did tar claim to be worship stripped?
- If he realizes he's lich - why would he ever claim his successor?
Unless of course your theory is that he retains town wincon while being lich so why didnt LMP claim on day one then?
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Post Post #3534 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:43 am

Post by Fate »

WE'RE NOT RISKING MO'S LIFE. HE'S ALL WE HAVE LEFT.

HOW ABOUT TONIGHT SINCE MO MENTIONED REDIRECTS WE REDIRECT VV TO SOMEONE USELESS AND LYNCH EM BOTH.

(OH WAIT THATS ME)

WELL THATS BETTER THAN MO DYIN FO SHO.
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Post Post #3535 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:59 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

ooba wrote:
Mighty Orbots wrote:@ooba, a mafia redirect of a town VasudeVa (or even a cult VasudeVa telling the truth about his ability) to Snow_Bunny would protect one of the mafia's sources of night kills from anything but a lynch for the following day night cycle no matter what else happened in the game and take down a non-mafia member if she did get lynched for whatever reason the next day.
Other than redirecting a kill I don't know what would have made better use of it
and if they were worried about watchers they could have been leery of going with that choice whereas VasudeVa was pretty unlikely to be watched.
I don't know what the mafia's actual thought process was but that seems like a pretty good use of a redirect to me given the information that was public at the time.

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This. The DTM kill being redirected was the best use of the skill.
And I addressed one reason why they might not have gone with that (with the underlined.) Unless you're mafia or have access to their quick topic there's no good reason to think that you've got their motivations down.

I haven't forgotten that DarkStalker claimed he was immune to recruits. In fact, he almost certainly did have a line in his PM that he wasn't recruitable. That in turn means that the rest of the mafia probably didn't have that line and were recruitable (DarkStalker, as you pointed out, spent an inordinate amount of his time and effort talking about cults.)

I've been "soft" on VasudeVa because at this point I can account for all the actions I know that he's made and I believe that they make sense from a town perspective. His play outside that has not been particularly good but I'm much more inclined to attribute that to him as a player. Last night I was intending to advocate that VasudeVa use his worship and focus exactly how he did (or at least on some player that he was fairly sure about.) It's not a matter of keeping him alive so much as it's a matter of not having to worry about protecting someone from anything but lynches. Assuming his power works how it does until we're certain that the energy weapon out there is under our control or gone that's a good use of his power.

You seem to be assuming that Tarhalindur was informed of an alignment change as soon as he had his worship stripped or got recruited or what not. I don't see any reason to think that has to be the case. If the zombification fully kicks in after the phase when the recruit happens (which would allow us the time we need to actually deal with a threat like this and makes sense as a mechanic) then he wouldn't have been playing against his win condition. If he's not actually informed of his new win condition at all then he wouldn't know whether he was playing against it.

I don't know that either of those are the case but we should have a better idea if it's true if we kill Tarhalindur with a vig shot and see if anyone else reports the same conditions. I do strongly believe that the Zombies are connected to the cult and that Tarhalindur is almost certainly infected or whatever the mechanic is called and it doesn't make nearly as much sense for him to have outted himself simply to confuse us when he would have had an option to lie low in relative safety as it does for him to have been trying to help the town win when he still thought he might have that win condition.

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Post Post #3536 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 5:02 am

Post by Fate »

much more inclined to attribute that to him as a player
+1 TO THE PEOPLE WHO THINK VV SUCKS AS TOWN.

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Post Post #3537 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 5:55 am

Post by Faraday »

v/la till god knows when (hopefully not too long) something came up re: uni so I need to go to dublin to sort it.
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Post Post #3538 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 10:04 am

Post by VasudeVa »

If I were cult leader, S_B should have flipped zombie by now, hm? I'm definitely not cult.
Me mafia would not have claimed to have 'protected' Orbots after he had said that he watched Snow_Bunny. Plus there's that redirect claim so...yeah.

I think I'm at the very least probTown at this point in the game and I'm not following that craptastic lynch me + Iec plan if I know that I can put my power to good use for the Town.

If the Network thinks I need to be lynched, redirect me to a scummy player then go prove my power

*reads above*...well...What they said. >.>.

Yes, I am playing horribly but that's my problem(in which you guys are slightly affected.).
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Post Post #3539 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:45 am

Post by Nikanor »

ooba: No, I did not.

MO: Sending in Parama-MO Neighboring now.
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Post Post #3540 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:48 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mina: Recruiting changes role name. Current role name: Zombie Big Daddy.

Screw my new win condition. As far as I'm concerned, I win with the town. I'd rather get dayvigged so I have a chance at regaining my town win condition.

Dowse result on Faraday says that his track ability is named Track Infected. Draw your own conclusions about him and VasudeVa.

Also, Cult apparently recruits by TARGETING. Yes, TARGETING (item abilities don't count, AFAICT - I'll pass the Dowsing Pendulum to either Orbots or Nikanor ASAP). We may have a hell of a lot more recruits than I thought.

Davyig Tar, lynch Faraday, Orbots block Katy, dayvig Katy should be game (though our new friend may need to be on the kill list).
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Post Post #3541 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:31 pm

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Tarhalindur, when you say that the cult recruits by targeting do you mean that when cult gets targeted they infect the one targeting them? If so then when did you get infected? So far as I know the only person you targeted other than your use of items prior to last night was SaintKerrigan night one. If that's not it then I assume that the cult targets someone to recruit them and I don't see why that would be surprising. If it's spread by anyone who's infected targeting anyone else then we can probably come up with a pretty good guess for who all's been infected if we can figure out where things started but given the number of ways people target each other this game that seems really powerful.

Also, who did you target with your new ability last night?

@Faraday, any reason your track should be called Track Infected?

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Post Post #3542 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:51 pm

Post by Mina »

Tar...

Tar
.

And
Faraday
.

:(

That makes me so sad.

Tarhalindur, what is your new win condition? I take it you don't know who your leader is, do you?
@Tarhalindur, when you say that the cult recruits by targeting do you mean that when cult gets targeted they infect the one targeting them?
You know, I'll wait on the answer to this question before sending in my PM.
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Post Post #3543 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:56 pm

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Mina, if cult infect by being targeted then it's probably too late for either of us to care too much about being careful on that front. Both of us targeted LynchMePls after he was a Zombie (me with the role cop, you with the day vig.)

I'd still like you to wait until Tarhalindur has had a chance to clear up the things I asked about (at least) before you send in a kill.

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Post Post #3544 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:14 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mina wrote:Tar...

Tar
.

And
Faraday
.

:(

That makes me so sad.

Tarhalindur, what is your new win condition? I take it you don't know who your leader is, do you?
@Tarhalindur, when you say that the cult recruits by targeting do you mean that when cult gets targeted they infect the one targeting them?
You know, I'll wait on the answer to this question before sending in my PM.
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Cult Leader identity
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Also note that cult recruits without activated abilities gain a new active ability that they have to use. I used it on Nikanor last night, as added incentive to shut down the network now. (Damn my no access yesterday, I could have instructed Nikanor not to make QTs from now on.) This should also lock worship to JCA for the rest of the game (though I'm somewhat partial to a Norse worship tonight, out of curiosity - Egyptian is right out).

On our new friend:
Fullclaim, please. I'd consider having him fullclaim before shooting me, just so I can analyze the claim before I die.

A note for our "friendly" neighborhood cult leader, who knows who he or she is:
I WANT MY WIN CONDITION BACK, YOU SON OF A BITCH.

Call the Shot: Tarhalindur
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Post Post #3545 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:15 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

EBWOP: I suspect the cult win condition is to kill all gods. We'll know soon enough, since town has this game wrapped up.
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Post Post #3546 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:28 pm

Post by Sobriquet »

Tarhalindur wrote:
On our new friend:
Fullclaim, please. I'd consider having him fullclaim before shooting me, just so I can analyze the claim before I die.
Moi? I remain Ra, Goa'uld, Survivor, win if I survive until the game ends or until five players remain in the game, at which point I'd be removed from the game and win. Other than the reincarnate-in-a-symbiont-account in the case of being killed (which has been used now) I have no abilities. No word back from the Mod yet on my quicktopic with MO. In other news, I like your plan (well, given that I haven't really reread everything yet, anyway). While obviously I'm not interested in MO redirecting something like a kill at me it doesn't seem to be on the table yet and frankly I can't think of a good way to go about stopping him if he wants to do that; if I shot myself in the foot by claiming early, well, yeah.
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Post Post #3547 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:24 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Tar, why did you claim you would target me given your suspicion that the cult needed to kill all the Gods, as MO has said you did (I assume in the QT?)? Have you targeted me? Are you claiming that you actually targeted Niki? If so, how does THAT jive with the kill-all-gods bit?
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Post Post #3548 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Iecerint wrote:Tar, why did you claim you would target me given your suspicion that the cult needed to kill all the Gods, as MO has said you did (I assume in the QT?)? Have you targeted me? Are you claiming that you actually targeted Niki? If so, how does THAT jive with the kill-all-gods bit?
Why Niki? Because I have minimal loyalty to the cult (I'm no longer playing towards my win condition, both to discourage future cult leaders from recruiting me and to finish what I started here as town), targeting an unrecruitable player would be perfectly safe, and to offer a possible advantage to the cult if I thought that playing to my probable new win condition was remotely worthwhile (I considered playing to destabilize the game state last night - would have involved recruiting Nikanor as a cult superweapon with his double target, possibly recruiting Orbots for the lulz if grant item abilities could infect, then outing the cult mechanisms, suiciding via Mina or lynch, and encouraging the two remaining Mafia to terminate all remaining mortals). By the time I'd decided against it I'd lost access.

Why lie to Orbots and claim to target Iec? Because a) I forgot his roleblock/redirect are Twilight actions, b) I wanted to keep open the option of playing for the lulz, and c) by the time I'd decided against it I'd just lost access until daybreak.

Also, a note: While I'd prefer to win, Mina should consider dayvigging Faraday first and then dealing with me via lynch if necessary.

I'd put pretty good odds on cult leader being mortal even if it's not Faraday given the method of recruit.
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Post Post #3549 (ISO) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:08 pm

Post by Iecerint »

I could see the CL being a death god. You know, maybe like Anubis. Or Katy.

We all had nighttalk in-thread, so...what'd'ya mean by losing access to the thread?

I wonder if the zombie spirit has to possess a certain number of souls to win? It seems like it's not a cult we're at risk of being overrun by.

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