Open 218: Two-fold C9 - Game Over

[Equinox]

Equinox (1) XScorpion
Chronopie (1) Equinox
(No vote) Chronopie, ODDin, Mr.Sandman, Hinduragi
6 alive; 4 votes lynch.

They're not teams. They're my reads.

XScorpion, I know I'm town. I happen to think you're town based on your play on Days 1 and 2. That just rules everybody else out, doesn't it?

Case on ODDin is coming, but as for Mr.Sandman, I'll give you a quick line now and promise details later: Look at Day 2, post suspension. I got the impression he was playing "follow the leader." Laid low for the most part.

[XScorpion]

I just realized something.
Suppose we lynch mafia (for the sake of argument, doesn't actually matter which scum faction) today. Then we have 1 mafia, 2 town and 2 werewolves. If the mafia doesn't kill a werewolf (already 50% chance), wolves win. If the mafia kills a werewolf and the werewolves kill the mafia, it's lylo. If the mafia kills a werewolf and the werewolves kill town, town can only win if there is a no lynch the next day and the mafia/werewolf kill each other (unlikely since scum might as well just team up on the townie and draw for the win).
However, suppose we don't lynch today. Scum are inclined to aim for each other as opposed to town (since if one team doesn't and the other does, the faction with the most numbers is very likely to win), so I think the best option for me here is to

unvote, vote: No Lynch

[ODDin]

ODDin: See, this is what I'm confused about. You were pro-town on Day 1, then you went on defensive mode for a couple of people on Day 2, and now you're back on pro-town mode on Day 3. Sorry for not having specifics; I was working with what I remembered from your play. I'll go do a PBPA.

I defend people when I disagree with accusations against them. I also defended eas on D1 because I disagreed with scorp's case on him. If you really care, you can check up my meta, I often defend people when I find that they're wrongly accused when I'm playing town. I remember this issue discussed in at least one game I played as town, but I don't remember which at the moment. Maybe Mini 784.
So, on D2 I said that some arguments were wrong in my opinion. That didn't prevent me from accusing other people at the same time - as I've said, I've accused both scott and karma.

As for the slip, is there something obviously scummy I can point out? No, not really. But the wording is

odd

. Why would you ping your scumdar when someone acts scummy? It could be as you say, that you were screwing around while editing and forgot, but that excuse is so ridiculously easy to use. It reminds me of one time when someone said, "Maybe the doctor thought that I would..." and used the very explanation you gave me. He flipped scum. YAY FOR ANECDOTAL STUFF.

I think it's pretty obvious that there should be a "he" rather than "I" in that sentence. There's no sense - not even scummy sense - in saying "I pinged my scumdar". It doesn't make sense because, indeed, one cannot ping his own scumdar. A slip is when knowledge you have as scum but aren't supposed to have as town leaks into your post and you don't notice it - like if I implied I was looking for 2 scum and not 4, for instance, or something like that. Sentences that simply don't make sense for either faction aren't slips.

While I do that PBPA thing, here, have some obvscum.

Unvote, Vote: Chronopie

Remember this when I get quick-lynched, other town player. If the other two scum teams don't gun for you, that is.

Now, this is curious. What suddenly changed that made you reconsider?
Perhaps I was correct about chrono being your partner and now you're desperately trying to distance him...

[Equinox]

ODDin, thinking that I'm distancing Chronopie is

really

pushing it, and it's borderline tunneling. I've already stated that I'm willing to lynch anyone ranked at least probscum on my list, and I mean it. I would have lynched him on Day 2, except drmyshottyizsik was both obvscum and a viable wagon. Turns out I was wrong on the first count.

What changed my mind, you ask? I've already explained. I'm flip-flopping on my read of you -- one day you're town, one day you're not, and then you are. Confusing the hell out of me. The one thing I am sure of is you're not town because I have my other town (I think).

As for defending people, it was the degree I felt you were doing it. BUT YEAH. LESS BICKERING, MORE ISO-ING.

BRB.

[ODDin]

equinox: I'm mostly entertaining the thought, really. I don't get your read on me, and your manic-depressive-esque shifts from "you're town" "no you're scum".
I mean, look at this: "I'm flip-flopping on my read of you -- one day you're town, one day you're not, and then you are. Confusing the hell out of me. The one thing I am sure of is you're not town"
So you're not sure if I'm scum or town. The only thing you are sure of is that I'm not town. Yeah... that makes sense...

scorp: interesting thought there, though you're not bringing into consideration the possibility of protections, which, if present, could change the situation.

[XScorpion]

I highly highly doubt that there is a doctor/angel sitting around, given the probabilities and the fact that we already had a tracker flip, not to mention that the probability of the doctor/angel actually guessing in our favour is highly unlikely.

[ODDin]

I agree there likely isn't a doctor, since that would mean a second anti-mafia role, although the chance exists. But we haven't seen any anti-wolf role, and there probably is at least one (probability of at least one anti-wolf role is 5/6). Combined, I think there's a decent chance of there being a doctor or angel out there.
There's also the option of the massclaim, but I'm afraid it'll cause more harm than help us. Revealing protecting roles isn't the best idea, after all.
But the more I think about it, the more I'm reaching the conclusion that even if there are protecting roles out there, it won't really change your analysis much.

So,

vote: no lynch

[XScorpion]

There's also the chance that the anti-werewolf role belongs to the mafia.

[ODDin]

Yeah, that's also true...

By the way, I'm now almost convinced scorp is town. No scum in their right mind would've offered that no lynch option.

[Chronopie]

Well, the 2/3 chance of

Anyone

being scum assumes that 4 of the 6 players are scum... Oh wait. They are.

-

From what I can tell for the numbers game, for either scum faction to win, they need a successful lynch and x-kill.

VOTE: No Lynch

--
I'm willing to bet we have a split like so (FTR: #583 sounds like either buddying or soft defence);

Town

Chronopie
XScorpion/Mr.Sandman

Scum

XScorpion/Mr.Sandman
ODDin

Equinox
Hinduragi

[Korejora]

Chronopie (1) Equinox

None

(3/3) XScorpion, ODDin, Chronopie

(No vote) Mr.Sandman, Hinduragi
6 alive; 4 votes lynch.

Everyone was stilled with fear. Anyone could be dead next. Anyone. Without a doubt, there was going to be bloodshed soon.

Too afraid to face your kinsmen, knowing all but one of them was out to kill you, each of you returned home. Home... the safest place you knew. You hid, knowing that, though it had kept you alive so far, this could be the last night you spent there... and even if it wasn't, tomorrow you might be surrounded by enemies.

Tomorrow, you might be alone.

No one was lynched.

The day will end 70 - 80 hours from now. Please have your night choices in by then.

[Korejora]

The night was painfully quiet. Doom was approaching, etc. etc., scary things were going down. Finally, there was a

thump

at a door, the home of one of the few remaining survivors.

"Little human, please let us in," said a deep grovelly, voice.

There was no reply for a few moments. Then...

"HELP!" the person screeched.

They immediately tore the door down, and smashed the meagre barricade, and leapt. "HELP! FOR YOUR OWN SAKE, HELP!" their victim. "I KNOW YOU'RE OUT THERE! YOU KNOW THEY'RE GOING TO KILL US ALL! COME AND SHOOT THE BLlleaaarrghhhh..." There was a snap of teeth, a crunching of bone, the sharp report of a pistol--

BLAM! BLAMBLAM!

"YyyyYYYYIIIIIIIIPE!" one of the wolves yelped. BLAM! One went down. The other jumped straight through the window, shattering it to bits and fleeing into the night. A pair of dark figures lingered near the house momentarily, then disappeared just as quickly.

All was quiet again.

Chronopie

, a

townie

, was killed.

Hinduragi

, a

werewolf

, was killed.

[Chronopie]

go-lone-remaining-townie. /bah post.

[XScorpion]

vote: no lynch

[ODDin]

vote: no lynch

[Equinox]

I screwed up so badly... At least I can hold onto one little shred of pride, knowing that I called 3 of the scum. Not that it means anything, since it was just process of elimination at that point.

Well played, mafia, well fucking played.

The way I see it now, it's game over. Funny, though, that you lot take the more interesting route for this endgame. I'LL BITE. LET'S DO THIS.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Korejora]

None

(2/2) XScorpion, ODDin

(No vote) Equinox, Mr.Sandman
4 alive; 3 votes lynch.

No one broke the eerie silence that had settled over remains of the town the previous night. The day stretched on without incident. Finally, night fell.

No one was lynched.

The night will end as soon as all night actions are in.

[Korejora]

The two of them stood in the centre of town, waiting for a sound or some sign of the werewolf. The last real local, having only a werewolf mauling or a mob execution to look forward to, had long since fled.

"This is it," one said to the other. "We made it this far, but we might not both make it out of this."

"Have faith," the other replied calmly.

"Better idea," the first said. "DUCK!"

The wolf sailed over the mobster as he hit the dirt, smashing into his partner. With a snarl, it went straight for the throat, teeth clamping down and ripping the jugular, even as its victim emptied his gun into its side. It howled and turned towards its next target, but before it could make another move, the downed man placed a shot straight through its skull.

It slumped into the dirt, dead.

"Told you... we might not... both..." the Mafioso coughed. His partner smiled, teeth shining in the moonlight.

"As I said..." he responded, leaning down to cover the wound, "Have a little faith..."

XScorpion

, a

werewolf

, was killed.

The mafia wins!

[Korejora]

n1

Scott Brosius

tracks

inHimshallibe

(null)

XScorpion

kills

Chevre

Mr.Sandman

guards

ODDin

ODDin

kills

inHimshallibe

n2

Scott Brosius

tracks

Chronopie

(null)

Mr.Sandman

guards

ODDin

ODDin

kills

Scott Brosius

XScorpion

kills

Tazaro

n3

XScorpion

kills

Chronopie

ODDin

kills

Hinduragi

Mr.Sandman

guards

ODDin

n4

XScorpion

kills

ODDin

Mr.Sandman

guards

ODDin

ODDin

kills

XScorpion

Thank you again to all the players who had the patience to stay with us when half the game was empty, and of course to the replacements who were willing to commit to a game that wasn't guaranteed to continue. I'm glad we could see the game to its conclusion.

[Hinduragi]

Well played, mafia. I thought we had it until Chrono didn't flip scum. =/

[ODDin]

OH YEAH!

I see that my attempt to paint a huge target on myself for the werewolves worked at last, although in the end it wasn't necessary.
Scorp, your "no lynch" at the end was a dead giveaway, why did you do that? Sure, the single townie lost the moment the day began, no matter what happened, but a townie accepting his defeat would've provided some "bah" post or something, like equinox did. What you did looked like a deliberate plan.
Also, why did you want the no-lynch yesterday? Were you so sure we'd NK equinox?

[Scott Brosius]

I've never played a game with so many VIs. Was going to be impossible for town to win with all those characters.

[ODDin]

By the way, here's a link to our quicktopic: http://www.quicktopic.com/44/H/X2j5cN4wx835

Mod / wolves - can you please provide a link to the wolf quicktopic? I'm really quite curious.

[Mr.Sandman]

Yusssss! ODDin, a genuine pleasure to work with you. I felt like we had a gameplan as scum for once. I genuinely thought scorpion was town right up until that last day.

[ODDin]

A pleasure working with you too.
Scorpion indeed played wonderfully. If you look at our quicktopic, on N3 I said "well, scorp is obv-town, so I'm not even considering him right now."
Also, great bussing of eas on D1.