/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Votecount

Janitor (5) -- SpyreX, Kmd4390, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Papa Zito
Rolecop (1) -- ooba
Roleblocker (7) -- Kmd4390, Papa Zito, ooba, SpyreX, Rhinox, Amished, mith
Assassin (4) -- VasudeVa, Rhinox, Amished, Slicey

20 alive, 11 votes to choose.


Deadlines

Number one (3) -- Rhinox, VasudeVa, Slicey
Number two (9) -- Hoopla, SpyreX, Papa Zito, ooba, Elmo, ekiM, zoraster, Amished, My Milked Eek

[Amished]

@Elmo: How many games have you played with Elli?

I oppose any claiming strategy.

[Slicey]

Okay I finally reread this stuff.

Ill gladly abridge the hot topics in this thread for people on the go (TM). As obvious, if Im getting the wrong impression of what you thought please correct me asap:

1.- Rhinox and Hoopla suggested an assassin/roleblocker pair with a politic of lynching claimed power roles to

a)reduce the power of the scum roles and
b)prevent scum from fakeclaiming which seems really likely in this scenario.

My thoughs: At first glance I really liked this idea. As the posts progressed, somehow Im resilient to the idea of lynching power roles that have come up with verifiable information/feel town for gut, interactions etc. Anyways, I dont think its that popular so pushing it or trying to find a way to work seems pointless to me.

2.- Zorblag proposed a hider(s) claim to

a)get two confirmed townies and break the game if scum picked two hiders and we dont give scum a roleblocker.
b) get one hider claim, force scum to fakeclaim or to play hunt the hider.
c) get zero hider claims that will give us the same information scum already have and will prevent hider fakeclaims.

My thoughts: I agree with this plan for the simple fact that I really doubt scum gave us a hider and this would be a useless exercise. Anyways, the benefits if they picked wrong greatly amuse me and its worth the try.

3.- Herodotus proposed a massclaim to

a) Force scumbags to counterclaim with an x number of mafiosos unless they want 4 people confirmed in day 0.
b) Elevate our scum lynch ratio.
c) Render the rolecop role useless.

My thoughts: As all massclaims, they sound good in theory, I dont know how effective they would be in practice. It forces the rolecop/janitor tanget with the shenanigans the janitor always bring, but somehow Ive been moved by the pro-janitor crowd. A lonely ???? result with a healthy amount of other lynches doesnt sound so bad at all. The argument of a ???? covering a power role is likely to happen only if we are about to lynch a claimed power role which we should avoid doing days 1,2 and 3 if we are going to massclaim.

Somehow Im starting to like this idea more than I anticipated.

Tajo, I love you.

Also massclaim seems like a great idea and much better than the assassin/roleblocker one. Which other scum power would we give with rolecop (I'm assuming Janitor).

[Herodotus]

I want to point out that I think a regular massclaim would probably be a bad idea. I was hoping someone would come up with a modification to a standard massclaim that would be a good idea. Like the all-but-WD claim, possibly with hypodoc. But hopefully even better.

[Papa Zito]

Always look on the briiiiight side of life, dee do, dee do dee do dee do.

I oppose any claiming strategy.

Good man.

[My Milked Eek]

The main concerns I have right now is why we are not having a massclaim already. It's not as if the scum would have given us very useful roles to begin with. Let's divide this game up into two pools. This is not about preserving any power roles as that would be focusing on the wrong issue at hand. The issue is making the ratios work for us. If we claim we get two pools of 4-6 players in the claim pool and 12-10 in the non claim pool.

Going with 4-12, that would mean that we have 4/12 scums. One useless scum power role. And scum are forced to nightkill our confirmeds 4 nights in a row. The crappy side of this is that we have to lynch a scum before night 4. But if we can't lynch a single scum in four days, we'd suck either way. Also in this scenario, it might not be a good idea to give them the janitor.

Going with 5/6-10/11, 3 scum out of 11 or 2 scum out of 10. Still one useless scum role. Scum can't nightkill in the pool of 5/6 and are forced to help us lower the number in the 10/11 man pool. Not sure about janitor in these situations.

Going with 7-9, 3 scum out of 7. Still one useless scum role. We just start lynching in our claim pool. No janitor preferred here. Assassin works wonders here.

Going with 8-8. 4 scum out of 8. ...

Our worst case massclaim scenario has us mislynching 4 times in a row (barring power role interventions), which is the same as when we don't claim and mislynch, but then again, our wcs is without wifom surrounding every claim and does not require stupid plans like "don't claim at all" or "lynch all claims on sight".

It's simple, the benefits are enough for me:
- obvious scum ratios in smaller pools
- no wifom or silly policies over every claim, just hack 'n lynch if needed
- one useless (rolecop) and one semi-useless (assassin, depending on scenario) scum pr's instead of one (rb) or two (rb, assassin) semi-useful role(s) and/or one useful role

Disadvantages
- power roles will be hindered in what they can do
Considering how scum picked our roles I don't think we'll be gaining

that

much out of them to begin with that we'll need to abort a massclaim. And even if we massclaim, there is always a way for them to get something done; there's four of them and only one semi-useful scum power role if chosen correctly.

With this I postpone my role votes until after a massclaim.

[mith]

In Denton, not much time (we're babysitting for friends for a bit soon, heh), real quick:

My Milked Eek: Massclaim sucks if we discount the power roles entirely and just treat them as "pool dividers". I have a spreadsheet which exactly calculates the EV for such games (Census, see Open Discussion thread), and unless the scum fail hard at the claiming part (and 3 or 4 of them claim power roles) it's not worth doing. EVs go from 17% (Vanilla) to 19% (4 claimed "power roles", ignoring abilities) to 23% (1 scum fake claim) to... I don't remember off the top of my head, not much higher.

In such a game, the clear scum strategy is to not fake claim. It's different here because the power roles do have abilities, but I don't think it's enough gained to counteract the "power roles outed and dead soon" aspect (or the risk of a scum fake claim, depending on the setup they've chosen), unless we think there's a good enough chance we have 2 Hiders or 2 Weak Doctors (and for the former, Hider-claim is better, obviously).

[zoraster]

As mith says, it will be very hard for us to get rid of four scum in this game without some sort of support. That's why the hider claiming seems like a good idea. Either way, we need to try and count up who's in favor. Obviously a hider claim does not work if we have a lot of people resisting.

Also, my grandparents live in Denton, mith.

[Papa Zito]

MME + Hoopla + ? + ?

Ya'll hurry up and pick something.

[zoraster]

MME + Hoopla + ? + ?

Ya'll hurry up and pick something.

As has been mentioned, it does not make sense to vote for things before knowing if we're claiming hiders or not.

[Papa Zito]

We shouldn't claim anything. Claiming is useless. We should be picking some crap to give to the scum that won't matter because we're lynching them anyway. And we should do it before this DAY 0 drags to eternity.

[ooba]

That's interesting. Ooba, why didn't you check the thread first? I think I'd be more likely to PM the mod if I was mafia and expected that info to be either in my role PM or nowhere.

I did check the thread; missed it.

Either way, we need to try and count up who's in favor. Obviously a hider claim does not work if we have a lot of people resisting.

In favor of a hider claim.

Slightly busy today - still haven't got the time to analyze massclaim in full - probably tomorrow ..

[Kmd4390]

I agree with Zito on almost everything.

Tajo, thanks for the summary.

[Slicey]

We shouldn't claim anything. Claiming is useless. We should be picking some crap to give to the scum that won't matter because we're lynching them anyway. And we should do it before this DAY 0 drags to eternity.

This is the best post in this whole topic.

[Slicey]

Well, actually, just the last two sentences. XD

[Ellibereth]

This is still going on. >.>
Can we just choose whatever and roll...

[Plumegranate]

So as far as I can tell we're not going to be massclaiming today and we probably

are

going to do a Hider claim? In that case, Hider claim ASAP and afterwards choose one of the following combos (the only few which have been discussed and have substantial following - I don't think any others are widely considered among our best choices, unless the Hider claim helps us deduce that we don't want a Roleblocker, in which case we may have to go Assasin/Janitor or Rolecop/Janitor, probably the latter given that two outed Hiders means the Rolecop has limited use for the scum anyway):

• 1. Roleblocker/Rolecop
  
• 2. Roleblocker/Janitor
  
• 3. Roleblocker/Assassin

Is there any reason we shouldn't all just post Hider/Not Hider and mention which other power we'd like to give with Roleblocker if we don't end up with two Hiders?

[ekiM]

Ummm, hardly anyone supports hider claim? It's pointless unless you think there's a reasonable chance we have 2 of them. Shall we just vote on these things and then we can vote on roles.

Hider claim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 1 (ekiM)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 1 (ekiM)

Add your votes.

[Plumegranate]

Was pretty sure over half supported it. Zorb's point was that scum, if they assumed getting Roleblocker was a pretty safe bet,

might

have done it, and that if they haven't it's extremely low risk. But I'll vote along, I guess. Anything to move on, really. Please.

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 1 (ekiM)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 2 (ekiM, Plumegranate)

[Amished]

Was pretty sure over half supported it. Zorb's point was that scum, if they assumed getting Roleblocker was a pretty safe bet,

might

have done it, and that if they haven't it's extremely low risk. But I'll vote along, I guess. Anything to move on, really. Please.

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 2 (ekiM, Amished)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 3 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished)

[Papa Zito]

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 3 (ekiM, Amished, PZ)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 4 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Rhinox]

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 4 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Rhinox)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 5 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I'm not sure I think your reasoning makes any sense, Rhinox.

So what if that's "the role most want to give"? If we get two hider claims, i doubt most will want to give them a roleblocker.

Even if I knew right now there were 2 hiders but we decided they weren't going to claim, I would still be ok giving a RB. with possibly 1 or especially 2 hiders claiming, and I now longer want to give a RB. Its all in the claim, not in the presence of...

I think there is more potential for hiders to remain unknown and clear townies/prevent kills. Especially if there is only 1, but even if there is 2.

If there were no hiders, I don't see how knowing that helps us all too much. Scum still have plenty of other claims to fake. I expect a >95% chance there is either 0 or 1 hider, and in the case of 1 hider, the benefit of remaining hidden outweighs the benefit of knowing their are no hiders. I feel there is a small probability of 2 hiders, but even if their were, its sort of 2 different approaches to a strategy. I would prefer to take the risk that they can do better than 2 confirmed unk if they remain unknown.

[VasudeVa]

Ack, my first prod.

Hider claim?
Yes - 1 (Plumegranate)
No - 5 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas)

Massclaim?
Yes - 0 ()
No - 6 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas)

I'm now against any Town gambit discussed thus far. Let's just continue the game normally and pick bad roles for scum etc. Scum have had more than enough time to plan for the plans discussed thus far anyway.

Also, I'm having terribad internet access for a while now and Starcraft II's epic epic epic campaign isn't helping me be more active.

[mith]

Rhinox, having 2 claimed Hiders and no scum Roleblocker is a super-strong position. Having 2 unclaimed Hiders and a scum Roleblocker is slightly better than having no Hiders.

Unrevealed Hiders can possibly confirm an innocent or two, but at the risk of dying... and not only does that risk of an extra scum kill cancel the benefit of scum possibly missing a kill trying to hit the Hider, the latter is actually not that much of a benefit (because if scum miss a kill in a game which they know contains 2 Hiders, they are probably going to be able to assume that they've tried to kill a Hider, and can then Roleblock and kill the Hider).

I'm going to vote yes on Hider-claim. I may well change my mind when I'm back in Tyler tomorrow and have a chance to sit and think about the game for a bit, but that's where I am at the moment.

Hider claim?
Yes - 2 (Plumegranate, mith)
No - 5 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas)

[Hoopla]

Vote No.

I seriously doubt scum would have given us two hiders. I kind of want to get on with it too. I'll support a massclaim or the RB/Assassin combination.