Mini 1003 Mafia - Game Over

[Untrod Tripod]

Having thought about it for a few days, I think we should consider a few things:

Why would the mafia kill ACM?
Why would the vig/SK kill ACM?
Why would the mafia kill nhammen?
Why would the vig/SK kill nhammen?

I don't think there's a way to figure out who killed who, but we should probably consider why those two were nightkilled instead of trying to figure out if we have a vig or an SK. I think I might need to do a reread to see if anyone had something to gain by killing those two. I consider that to be the avenue most worth pursuing at the moment.

[Zang]

Votecount-

nopointinactingup - 1 - (MagnaofIllusion) (L-4)
Tasky - 2 - (Espeonage, nopointinactingup) (L-3)

Not Voting: redtail896, Quoi, Equinox, Untrod Tripod, Shattered Viewpoint, Tasky

5 to lynch

Deadline is August 16 at 9:30 pm EDT


Prodding Quoi and Shattered Viewpoint

I will allow tasky to return at the end of his V/LA if I haven't found a replacement.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

I seem to have been prodded.

On my way out the door for dinner; will post later tonight.

[redtail896]

I don't think there's a way to figure out who killed who, but we should probably consider why those two were nightkilled instead of trying to figure out if we have a vig or an SK. I think I might need to do a reread to see if anyone had something to gain by killing those two. I consider that to be the avenue most worth pursuing at the moment.

Do you really think that's the avenue

most

worth pursuing? I don't object to NK speculation, but I find Magna's voting record studies much more promising. Who was actively pursuing one of the bandwagons but was kinda flaky on the other, and why?

[Espeonage]

Ok Manga solidifies my trust in a tasky wagon today. Let's leave NK spec until tomorrow when we have some more info. I think we are in a bit of a rut post wise until Tasky gets back. Once he does we can really kick start this day.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

I seem to have been prodded.

On my way out the door for dinner; will post later tonight.

My apologies; it's very late and I need sleep. If not tomorrow (Friday), then ABSOLUTELY over the weekend.

Promise.

[MagnaofIllusion]

4> I don't presume Nhammen was the extra kill

Actually you infer it very strongly in this statement.

I find it odd that Magma was able to anticipate the possibility of non-mafia nightkiller in this game. Even more, Nhammen, Chi's replacement got killed. But I still can't figure out a possible connection this points to.

Your first sentence directly addressed the non-Mafia killer in the game. Your second sentence then says “Even more, nhammen … got killed”. The logical train of thought is that you believe that nhammen is the extra kill.

3> It's not just Night Kill, it's also lynch and wagon speculations. I agree that speculation on NK is WIFOM-ish, but that's not what my whole argument are based on.

It’s not wagon analysis you are doing. You are routing every dead person on Tasky. Every bit of your speculation involves why said person was suspicious of Tasky. Tasky wasn’t the only person who Chevre suspected or the only person who ACM and nhammen accused. And even if he is scum only one of the Nightkills is likely to be ‘his’ doing. That you aren’t looking really at ANYONE else smells to me of a WIFOMSandwich frame job.

Doesn't both boil down to "Who didn't appear on his later wagon"? Sounds like somebody is trying to create illusions of great number here. And if you ask why, I'd answer that the Tasky wagon to me was not as reasonable as the Chevre wagon.

Since you are not grasping the logic I’ll lay it out for you.

When are scum partners most likely to vote for their buddies Day 1? If they are going to do so it will be early on when suspicions are less likely to build to a viable wagon. Let’s look at the facts.

1. You, Tripod and Quoi (or predecessors) each voted for Tasky early on when discussion was swirling. At no point during that period did he get more than 2 votes (per the vote-counts). If you were Town this would indicate you had some level of suspicion of Tasky.
2. Later on in the Day an actual viable wagon (more than 3 players) forms on Tasky. More arguments are being made against him. Yet none of the three of you (who, if Town, were at least somewhat suspicious of him earlier) join the bandwagon. Instead a counterwagon quickly forms against Chevre.

I find this behaviour pattern worth investigating. Your second sentence is another scummy attempt to discredit an attack against you with inference instead of direct action.

Don't give yourself a handful. Pressure Tasky first.

TRANSLATION

- Please don’t look more closely at me or my likely partners. We want to bus Tasky today since he’s such an easy target when V/LA.

Overall, we see Tasky as a rather emotional player and his trains of thoughts feel coherent to me. That's why I wasn't convinced Tasky was the right lynch despite a few of his contradictions in the beginning of the game. Of course, scums could very well be setting us up but Tasky's flip will reveal a lot as there are clear connections between him with various live players.

1. So all it takes is some WIFOM analysis to flip your opinion of Tasky?
2. What clear connections are you speaking of? Lynching someone you aren’t sure is scum simply to see connections to other unspoken players is classic scum motivation.

@Untrod re 525

– You’d rather discuss pointless WIFOM instead of more viable lines of discussion?

I think we are in a bit of a rut post wise until Tasky gets back. Once he does we can really kick start this day.

You could, you know, look for his partners in the meantime. Just saying “Tasky’s not here, nothing I can do” doesn’t cut it.

@Redtail

– You’ve done some questioning with little followup today. I’d like to ask again … why were you fence-sitting Tasky yesterday?

@Equinox

– You’ve been active with not a lot to say today. I’m not sure I like that development.

@SV

– More catch-up posts?

@Quoi

– If you aren’t scum please don’t be an absolute anchor on Town. Get your ass in here and contribute.

MOD

- I'll be LA for the rest of the weekend for family duties. Will return Monday in the AM.

[nopointinactingup]

Actually you infer it very strongly in this statement.

I find it odd that Magma was able to anticipate the possibility of non-mafia nightkiller in this game. Even more, Nhammen, Chi's replacement got killed. But I still can't figure out a possible connection this points to.

I stated a likelihood, not an inference. And yes, I do think Nhanmen is slightly more probable to be killed by the third party.

3> It's not just Night Kill, it's also lynch and wagon speculations. I agree that speculation on NK is WIFOM-ish, but that's not what my whole argument are based on.

It’s not wagon analysis you are doing. You are routing every dead person on Tasky. Every bit of your speculation involves why said person was suspicious of Tasky. Tasky wasn’t the only person who Chevre suspected or the only person who ACM and nhammen accused. And even if he is scum only one of the Nightkills is likely to be ‘his’ doing. That you aren’t looking really at ANYONE else smells to me of a WIFOMSandwich frame job.

By wagon analysis, I meant I was suspicious of the way the Tasky wagon disbanded so easily into the Chevre wagon when Tasky hasn't given a reply at all. Apparently, you can twist what I say all you want but I am looking into others and their relationships with Tasky.

Doesn't both boil down to "Who didn't appear on his later wagon"? Sounds like somebody is trying to create illusions of great number here. And if you ask why, I'd answer that the Tasky wagon to me was not as reasonable as the Chevre wagon.

Since you are not grasping the logic I’ll lay it out for you.

When are scum partners most likely to vote for their buddies Day 1? If they are going to do so it will be early on when suspicions are less likely to build to a viable wagon. Let’s look at the facts.

1. You, Tripod and Quoi (or predecessors) each voted for Tasky early on when discussion was swirling. At no point during that period did he get more than 2 votes (per the vote-counts). If you were Town this would indicate you had some level of suspicion of Tasky.
2. Later on in the Day an actual viable wagon (more than 3 players) forms on Tasky. More arguments are being made against him. Yet none of the three of you (who, if Town, were at least somewhat suspicious of him earlier) join the bandwagon. Instead a counterwagon quickly forms against Chevre.

I find this behaviour pattern worth investigating. Your second sentence is another scummy attempt to discredit an attack against you with inference instead of direct action.

Don't give yourself a handful. Pressure Tasky first.

TRANSLATION

- Please don’t look more closely at me or my likely partners. We want to bus Tasky today since he’s such an easy target when V/LA.

Interesting translation. Unfortunately, wrong translation. At least have Tasky flip before you WIFOM into buddies and buddies and beyond. And I already gave my reason as to why I had an initial suspicion of him but didn't jump on his wagon later on, read my Iso.

Overall, we see Tasky as a rather emotional player and his trains of thoughts feel coherent to me. That's why I wasn't convinced Tasky was the right lynch despite a few of his contradictions in the beginning of the game. Of course, scums could very well be setting us up but Tasky's flip will reveal a lot as there are clear connections between him with various live players.

1. So all it takes is some WIFOM analysis to flip your opinion of Tasky?
2. What clear connections are you speaking of? Lynching someone you aren’t sure is scum simply to see connections to other unspoken players is classic scum motivation.

1. It's not WIFOM. In fact things rarely feel WIFOM-ish to me. I analyze people with psychology rather than logic.
2. No one is saying we should lynch Tasky while he's still on V/LA Magma. Connections huh? There are plenty. If Tasky flip town, you are more likely scum for instance. But I will not speculate further when there are no flips in a foolish attempt to open my mindmap to scums before their NK.

[redtail896]

Mod: I will be V/LA today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday). I promise to be back Monday with more.

For now, I just want to answer Magna's question.

@Redtail

– You’ve done some questioning with little followup today. I’d like to ask again … why were you fence-sitting Tasky yesterday?

I wasn't voting for Tasky yesterday because I though that the wagon was strong, and I wanted to focus my attention elsewhere. Basically, this translates into the vote and pressure on SV. By the time that was done, the Chevre wagon had picked up far more steam, and the Tasky wagon had disbanded. At that point, the game became more about questioning and trying to understand Chevre than it did Tasky.

If you want my full thoughts on Tasky, I promise to have them Monday or Tuesday (when I have more time).

[Equinox]

I should have said this earlier, but I have requested replacement. Sorry, everyone.

[Quoi]

I think that the voting analysis isn't so applicable in the case of my player slot as we have no way of telling whether or not my predecessor would have stuck with his suspicion of Tasky had he still been playing. It's not as though anybody here backed off from Tasky as we approached the later stages of the day; I just happened to find chihuahua scummier than RA found him, having replaced in during the time in question.

That said, the analysis

is

very useful in pointing out nopoint, and as MoI is showing, nopoint is trying to get out of it by WIFOMing and supporting a Tasky lynch. I think that he deserves my vote right now.

Vote:nopoint

[nopointinactingup]

Quoi, do you have any other reasons why you suspect me or are you just gonna use Magma's work? Your latest post looks undoubtedly an attempt to buddy up to Magma.

[Zang]

Equinox has requested replacement

[Tasky]

ok, I'm back from V/LA... I'll do some reread and post as soon as possible

[Zang]

Tazaro replaces Equinox

[Tazaro]

Check-in post. Will post more later.

[Tazaro]

Equinox: I don't find him scummy enough for a vote. It's highly unlikely that he will get scummier before deadline, though, so I will likely vote him before deadline.

FoS: Chevre

Kinda hard to believe you'd say something like this on day two if you're trying to be helpful to town. If you don't find someone scummy enough for a vote, don't vote for that person. And I'm waiting on Tasky to make his forthcoming points.

[Tazaro]

: facepalm : Chevre is dead since DAY ONE; it's now day two, gee whiz; my reading is more behind than I thought. Tasky needs to speak though and I need to get a sense of people with ISOs.

[Espeonage]

Ok tasky. Post. Make it a good one. Welcome Tazaro.
Maybe now we can actually get some things done.

[nopointinactingup]

Where is everybody?

[Tazaro]

Where is everybody?

Nobody posts in the morning, I've come to find out. The fact that Tasky went so long without replacement is an indication of relatively low interest. I hope the steam engine of this game can pick up speed because I am serious about honoring my commitment and staying.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First, welcome Tazaro.

My apologies; it's very late and I need sleep. If not tomorrow (Friday), then ABSOLUTELY over the weekend.

Promise.

Promise failure.

I wasn't voting for Tasky yesterday because I though that the wagon was strong, and I wanted to focus my attention elsewhere. Basically, this translates into the vote and pressure on SV. By the time that was done, the Chevre wagon had picked up far more steam, and the Tasky wagon had disbanded.

1. Do you believe Tasky to be scum?
2. What did you accomplish by ‘pressuring’ SV?

I think that the voting analysis isn't so applicable in the case of my player slot as we have no way of telling whether or not my predecessor would have stuck with his suspicion of Tasky had he still been playing. It's not as though anybody here backed off from Tasky as we approached the later stages of the day; I just happened to find chihuahua scummier than RA found him, having replaced in during the time in question.

That said, the analysis is very useful in pointing out nopoint, and as MoI is showing, nopoint is trying to get out of it by WIFOMing and supporting a Tasky lynch. I think that he deserves my vote right now.

Indicate how you ‘didn’t back off Tasky’. You never voted for Tasky after jumping off him while you were the second vote.

Why is my analysis useful regarding NoPoint but not Tripod? Is it simply that you are just going to piggy-back on whatever vote or wagon seems strongest?

At least have Tasky flip before you WIFOM into buddies and buddies and beyond. And I already gave my reason as to why I had an initial suspicion of him but didn't jump on his wagon later on, read my Iso.

Another round of Cognitive Dissonance from NoPoint. Notice in the quote above that he is asserting that my suggestions are WIFOM. Then we get point 1, below -

1. It's not WIFOM. In fact things rarely feel WIFOM-ish to me. I analyze people with psychology rather than logic.
2. No one is saying we should lynch Tasky while he's still on V/LA Magma. Connections huh? There are plenty. If Tasky flip town, you are more likely scum for instance. But I will not speculate further when there are no flips in a foolish attempt to open my mindmap to scums before their NK.

So when others conjecture it is WIFOM to be ignored. When you do so it’s astute psychological analysis. I’m agree with you from the standpoint that you don’t analyze people with logic. I don’t see any.

And I’m certainly not sold on Tasky as scum. I’m much more interested in you right now. Tripod, Quoi and SV are also running high on my interest list.

Where is everybody?

Complaining about a lack of content while not providing new content yourself is ironic. If you were town I'm sure you'd try a little harder to look for more than just 1 Mafian at a time.

More votes on NoPoint please.

[Tazaro]

It's always the case that Tasky is seen as somewhat scummy. More votes on NoPoint for such things as his posts wherein there's cognitive dissonance? all right:

NoPoint

[Tazaro]

EBWOP:

VOTE: NoPoint

[Tasky]

AClockworkMelon:

Active lurked in the beginning,

...

Verdict: Leaning Town

I must say I'd really dislike this post on day 1 since I really had the feeling ACM was scum. But since ACM flipped town, I think this post is somehow pro-town. Scum wouldn't pull a townie out of the dirt in a situation where they are looking scummy.

It's a common sense rule that you don't necessarily vote for someone you want to lynch.

when would that be the case?

Not to be an ass, nhammen, but post 119 is really more about attacking RA than it is about defending Tasky. At the time, Tasky seemed more reasonable whereas at this point he's seeming a little *too* into getting people to do what he says. I'm not disagreeing with his method, exactly, because I think his getting people to post actively has revealed quite a bit about each player, but the last set of questions certainly were, as people have pointed out, a little ridiculous. I'm not sure it's fair to jump on him about that, though. He just went a little far. The rest of his play, imo, has been solid.

this post makes Untrod look like slightly townish to me... at the beginning he wanted to take distance from me, by saying he was not directly defending me. scum wouldn't do that, since they know I'm town. They would either defend me outright to get towncred, or attack me one way or another.

Speculating on replacing out is WIFOM.

How so?

this looks a lot like "fake-dumb-play-to-pretend-to-be-scumhunting"

Thus I'm not convinced. However, I noted the fact that Tasky has been quite inactive since he's been call out.

I was V/LA

However, ACM's recent posts are decent, so I'm looking into other people right now.

same argument as above, I somehow like this

I do believe chi could be Tasky's partner, though. (Although, I am learning to not place so much weight on my Day 1 reads. It never ends well).

I dislike this kind of posts a lot. throwing dogmas around while keeping yourself out of it.

HI. Nice timing there, sir!

Vote: Tasky

please explain this post...

Vote: Tasky

you too, explain this

Over-excitedness is even more solid of a case seeing as there is a trend of newer players liking being scum and thus get excited and jittery which is how I view Taskys early play.

<__< ... I

hate

being scum...

If a player is confirmed Town, but is playing badly, should he be lynched?

If a player is highly likely to be Town, but is playing badly, does he deserve to be lynched?

If player A is more likely to be Town than player B, but player A is playing worse than player B, which player should you lynch?

In other words, where do you draw the line with this "standard" of yours?

Bold – How is the player confirmed?
Underlined – How do you define highly likely?
Italics – Again, how are you defining more likely?

were those questions really necessary? are you sure you didn't just want to make nhammen look stupid?

I found this section hilariously funny. You see, youngminii was replaced by Shattered Viewpoint on July 14th, 1:49 PM. Since that time, Shattered Viewpoint has made 7 posts. I encourage everybody to read the ISO, but here is a summary:

...

Now, I know that the Tasky bandwagon is rolling. And, for many reasons already explained, I am also suspicious of Tasky, and would be perfectly satisfied if that was the lynch. But this is ridiculous. I will VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint

I like this post

nhammen is still scummy and I will explain why after answering a few inquiries directed towards me.

this makes a lot of my alarm-bells ring... let's see if you figure out why... (little hint, it's related with townies wanting to find the truth and scum wanting to survive)

Just noticed something while looking through votes...

Chevre: Who do you think is scum?

what did you notice?

Anyways, the Chi ordeal is over, I don't see why we should talk about it now.

why not? talking => info => scumhunt => good

unvote Espeonage

I guess. I'm not convinced that Lemon wasn't scum, but I'll at least cool it on his replacement for the time being. I'm not sure how I feel about this Tasky bandwagon that's formed. I don't really get a scum reading from him, I just get an over-exuberant townie read on him. I felt, reading his posts, that he just thought the best way to catch scum is to get everyone to say as much as possible. I think that's a pretty reasonable thing to want to do. When the town said "I'm not sure why this particular exercize is helpful", he said "ah, fuck it, then" for that particular question and left it at that.

I'm just not convinced that he deserves to be at L-2 for that

. That's all.

Though I'm not one of Tasky's attacker, I'm not liking this post defending him.

what exactly don't you like?

I think we'd all do well to remember that the person with the most votes is lynched at deadline. So unless Tasky's wagon brilliantly falls apart at the last moment, he's dead.

hmm... looks like I'm still alive... what do you say now?
why were you so sure I'd die?

What makes you think that Tasky's misstep was bad logic and not a scumslip? Hell, what makes any possible set of thinly disguised scum information probes distinct from bad logic? I could ask everybody in the game for an essay on how they go about scumhunting, how they've gone about scumhunting, and how they intend to go about scumhunting, but you might still dismiss it as a misguided attempt at productivity, bad logic.

tunnelling?!?

Fair enough. My playstyle is scummy. I'll grant that.

Sometimes I do feel that it is better to just vote and let scum furthur incriminate themselves. In other cases I will make my cases. It is amazing the holes scum dig for themselves when you deny them an explaination of their wrongs.

you are scum.

No one is going to get my vote until I find them suspicious enough. No one has achieved that yet.

How high are you setting the bar, Chevre?

wowowowowo... weren't you the one saying "We know what the limit of our tolerance is. If chihuahua0 reaches that limit, you will know. Until then, since this is not a newbie game, I have no obligation to tell you how someone needs to play."

Ok now. I am harbouring a few secret reads. At the moment there are 5 scum. Two are big reads and one backs the pother up. Chevre. Prove to me that the other reads are the ones to follow.

you are scum.

Be happy because she is cleared. duh.

why?

Chevre, we don't trust you to abstain from voting Tasky at the last minute and creating a tied vote, thus forcing no lynch at deadline. Vote now.

you really want to see me dead, don't you?

Btw. If Chevre is scum Tasky is a likely buddy.

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

not obvious at all to me...

Chevre is obviously a scum flailing, I will put her at L-1 and ask her to claim.

Unvote:Vote:Chevre

bad, very bad... you seem to be very interested in the claim... the L-1 argument is nonsense, since at deadline Chevre would die anyway... you voting is not going to make a claim better, since it's less probable enough townies can get off the wagon in case the claim is credible... I think you just wanted to lynch

At that point the Tasky wagon was going nowhere and had no momentum. As I said there are 'always' more than one scum in a game. Now at that point Tasky was my top suspect but the game was stagnant so I decided a new direction was needed. After reading Tripod's case I was happy that Chevre would make a good scumbuddy for Tasky so I went with that. Chevre then solidified my read.

this looks more like scum trying to find a townie-wagon to jump on... after the wagon on me "had no momentum" you just switched to a likelier lynch

If not, I'll give insight on my Tasky read.

why not do it immediately?

He's V/LA. I may be a total jerk, but I don't like lynching people while they're V/LA unless I'm as close to 100% as humanly possible certain that they are scum. Usually it involves a role claim or strong process of elimination. That's not what we have here.

this post feels townish... or maybe it's just your personality

Ok now I understand that there is a large amount of confirmation bias here. In light of nhammens last little tib bit on me for the future this may look bad but I propose a derail of the chevre wagon and a move back to Tasky. i still think tasky is scum and should he not be my whole case on Chevre falls apart and I wouldn't ote for her again.

UNVOTE: Chevre
VOTE: Tasky

I think you just want to get cred for having tried to derail a townie-wagon

Espeonage: Hell no. We are hours away from deadline. If you're trying to force a No Lynch, I will rain fire balls on your scummy butt.

Wait hours?

oh.

UNVOTE: Tasky
VOTE: Chevre

I think you wanted to let Chevre be lynched at deadline without hammer and you off the wagon, but then when town put pressure back on you you jumped back on... if you'd really think Chevre was the wrong vote, you shouldn't have voted him again, especially since there were no new arguments

I don't have as good read on this game as I have with others. Yesterday, I had a town read on Tasky but now all the evidence apparently points to Tasky-scum.

what exactly were those points?

Eh I give up.
VOTE: Tasky

what do you give up?

Vote Count Analysis –

I’m going to be looking at the vote-counts from each post by Zang in relation to Chevre and Tasky. I’m also going to go through Tasky’s ISO and list his votes in order.

...
blablabla
...

Right now with Chevre flipping Town I’m more inclined to approach from the presumption that Tasky is scum. Especially in light of the fact that all the players on Tasky's end of day wagon were confirmed Town.

A deeper look into NoPoint, Tripod and Quoi is in order.

what exactly is your conclusion from all your vote count analysis?

but Tasky's flip will reveal a lot as there are clear connections between him with various live players.

I'll flip town... so actually you could tell me already what that connections are you would find out...

Ok Manga solidifies my trust in a tasky wagon today. Let's leave NK spec until tomorrow when we have some more info. I think we are in a bit of a rut post wise until Tasky gets back. Once he does we can really kick start this day.

what exactly did magna say you liked about me? could you restate in your own words?


_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*

conclusion:
two biggest townreads:
Untrod Tripod, Equinox

two biggest scumreads:
Espeonage, Shattered Viewpoint