Newbie 988-Apocalypse(Over)-Scum win

[Adrien C]

You know what would not shock me at all...if both Dekes and Beanman end up being town.

[Dekes]

You backed up your post with a lot of fluff that read to me as OMGUS. Either way, my case on you has proven to be quite legitimate, as NO ONE, but your BW buddy, has a pro-town read on you...

Great stuff. I pointed out all your fluff in your case. Please show me mine.

I think Adrien's right.

[Jackabomb]

Thank you McGriddle and Cliquey for replacing montgomery and kyle. I will post the updated vote count. All votes carry over.

[Jackabomb]

Vote count 1.14
Pacman-

McGriddle, Cliquey;

Tanstalas-

;

Dekes-

Beanman;

Cliquey-

Tuxhedoh;

Beanman-

Tanstalas;

yabbaguy-

;

McGriddle-

;

Not voting-

yabbaguy, Dekes, Adrien C, Pacman;

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch or no lynch.
10 days until deadline.

[Adrien C]

Hey guys, welcome to the game! I'm Adrien, resident SE. When you get the chance to review the thread, I'd love to hear your thoughts on everything.

[Beanman]

You backed up your post with a lot of fluff that read to me as OMGUS. Either way, my case on you has proven to be quite legitimate, as NO ONE, but your BW buddy, has a pro-town read on you...

Great stuff. I pointed out all your fluff in your case. Please show me mine.

I think Adrien's right.

why? my case was successful? Your suspicious in everyones eyes...

[Beanman]

@ dekes, alright, how's this. You want me to unvote you? Tell me in 200 words or less(i don't want a long ass post) what you have done in this game, that has been pro-town in your opinion....

[Dekes]

why? my case was successful? Your suspicious in everyones eyes...

Nice job avoiding to post that real case you promised multiple times. But fine, like I said, I think this is just town vs. town + a lot of paranoia.

And if somebody is suspicious of me based on your case, I want them to look into my reply-post and tell me, which parts they want to have further explained by me or you.

[Beanman]

um, my post was my real case. Just because you believe you don't think it is, doesn't mean it isn't.

[Dekes]

um, my post was my real case. Just because you believe you don't think it is, doesn't mean it isn't.

Then it was a bad and poorly constructed one and I'm afraid you'll have to look into my long-ass post again. Because I answered to every point and just because you dismiss everything as fluff doesn't make them less valid points.
Usually you have to prove me guilty and not the other way around because everything I will state below you can just counter with "That's not pro-town! You can just be scum pretending to act pro-town!), but nonetheless here are some points I see as me being pro-town:
- I asked yabba about his initial semi-random vote to get some information
- I questioned Tux about the kyle and Mob situation when he weren't participating
- I kept the pressure on kyle to make him contribute more
- I tried to make out several connections about who might be scum/town in case kyle or Mob flip scum/town
- I made an Iso of kyle to clarify how his actions were poor/scummy on the first couple of days
- I questioned you on your little charade when you put kyle at L-1
- I was the first to point out that montgomery not only posted rarely but also that her posts were revolving around one topic and one topic only
And shortly after that the mess between us began. I just skimmed my Iso so I might very well missed a lot. There.

[Beanman]

I ask one more thing. And then, sleep for me. I would like your honest opinion of Tant at this stage of the game...

[Dekes]

Okay, fair enough.
Yes, I see the similarities. One would have to be blind not to see similar patterns. Early on I called tanstalas out on this (#110). Yes, one might argue now that this was a (somewhat) subtle hint of scum telling the other scum to stop doing that. And one might even continue to argue that I didn't do it again to not come off as suspicious. And then one might say "But Dekes, if you see this happen again, why don't you call him out again as that might look scummy on both of you? Now you just seem like you are distancing yourself from him." I can see all of that.
But honestly, I skimmed tanstalas' posts for the longest time because I was so into tunneling on kyle, Mob and then you. I liked that someone agreed with me and had the same suspects as I did but I didn't look further into his posts. I actually wanted to address this again in my long ass post, but when I clicked on preview edit I saw that he had posted again and I addressed that instead. I was contemplating not voting for you after reading tanstalas' had voted for you but then I thought it was time for another wagon to get some information out of you. Plus, I was a little pissed because that post took me so goddamn long (hence the overreaction in paranthesis). But I think I have calmed down a bit now.
About what I think about him. I really have to look into his posts again but if he were scum, I simply couldn't picture anyone as his partner right now. So it would have to be a town-read from me for now.

[McGriddle]

I'm Melissa, and I'm a girl.

I'm 17 years old, and I'm from Huntington Beach, California.

A GIRL??? -.-* hi

[McGriddle]

Hey guys, I'm McGriddle, you can call me McG. I want to start off by

Unvote

ing lol. What are some significant posts?

[Adrien C]

She's gone and been replaced, McGriddle. I got her e-mail address though (long story, it's in the thread).

[Dekes]

Okay, done re-reading the thread while concentrating on tanstalas' posts.
Conclusion: Unsure...while the timing of his votes is really conspicious (especially his #26 where he openly admits to vote montgomery simply because she's inactive) and some of his posts are anti-townish like his casual remark in his #24 where he states that Mob being modkilled would be "one less player to worry about". But usually his votes are backed up by reasoning and he his ready to defend his votes rather well. He could be more offensive though and question other people about their votes/motives.
Definitely not as townish a read as in my last post anymore. Could use some pressure to get more information out of him (so does Tux imo).

I know this can again be interpreted as me deflecting from myself and distancing from/giving up on my scumbuddy. But Beanman asked me what I think about tanstalas and this is where I'm at at the moment.

Quick question@Beanman: Did you make up that case on yabba to see if either me or tanstalas would follow your vote? Simple yes or no suffices. If so, it at least explains your actions on the last couple of days.


And now, I will really wait for the replacements to talk. After all they're replacing rather scummy people and I'm curious about what they have to say about their predecessors and the game content overall so far.

[Cliquey]

unvote

OK, I'm preparing this post as an appeal to statistics. This has very little to do with this game. I'm town and will play as such here too. It just happens that the thought of lynching me is silly. As I said this is going into every game I replace into when I am town and will be addended as such.
This is also a probablistic look at the psyche of WHO drops out of the game. Townies.

Newbie 877
Innocent

Newbie 885
Innocent

Newbie 886
Innocent

Newbie 896
Innocent

Newbie 914
Innocent


Newbie 972
Innocent
*Ongoing, but I'm dead, don't talk about this otherwise


The other games of mine, I did not replace into and as such are not worthy of looking at in this sample.
Now the numbers, of course, show that if replacements were random I had a 22% chances of being sequenced as town a 6th time, 17% as being sequenced as town in this game. Random doesn't work, and you'll have to trust my count on this, I'm not linking them all. In those 6 games there were 18 replacements (not counting the ongoing game) with only 2 of them being scum. This puts us at a ratio of 1/9 replacements being scum. A tertiary glance shows that I am actually

less

likely to be scum just on this statistic fact.
The numbers indicate an 89% chance of me being town independent of previous rolls and a 43% chance dependednt on previous rolls (which my current role is not dependent on. It is not a random distribution of x/9 whereas the original game's distributions would deserve a compounded chance statistic)

Now complain about SSS or appeal to statistics or whatever as I catch up.

[Adrien C]

I'd like some meta on you playing as scum if you're going to be linking us to a bunch of games, Cliquey.

[Cliquey]

This has nothing to do with my play, it has to do with the statistical likelihood of the alignment that replaces.

[Adrien C]

Umm...we're only taking your word for it that you are town. Point out all the statistics you want but the lottery is won on occasion. I want to compare and contrast your town and scum playstyle.

I'm not liking this guy...

[Adrien C]

Just adding on to that: I think it's misleading to only provide town meta and refuse to provide scum meta along with it.

[Cliquey]

Well you can take a peak and find that Cliquey has never been scum on this site.

I really don't care to dredge through my old account for scum. If you care to look up Greenliquid's large Post Restriction game. I think I was scum in there, I don't remember if I replaced, however. Arguably, I did include a scum meta in those 6 games/18 replacements. As I said only 2 of those replacements in the games were scum, they're there but at a statistically lower chance than a town-replacements.

Anyways, I'm at page 5 now, I hope you guys stopped being nice at some point in this thread.

[yabbaguy]

Of course.

[yabbaguy]

Adrien, your case on Cliquey sucks. I don't like the Appeal to Statistics meself, but calling it

meta

is wrong. It's just statistics gobbledygook.

[Adrien C]

I'm not trying to "make a case" on Cliquey. I just want him to be a bit more open.