Mini 1003 Mafia - Game Over

[Equinox]

Well, Shattered Viewpoint... care to enlighten me about your reads and why you chose the most obvious and extreme ones?

[Untrod Tripod]

I'm checking the thread from my phone while I'm in the pit for a musical. Can't really do much more than point out that pancaking was just a pun. Anyway, that's deadline, right?

[Equinox]

It appears so.

Twilight talk: Look into Espeonage, nopointinactingup, and Shattered Viewpoint.

I await the flip.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

Well, Shattered Viewpoint... care to enlighten me about your reads and why you chose the most obvious and extreme ones?

Because they're.... obvious? I apologize for not being a Perfect Scumhunting Machine; I just do the best I can.

[Equinox]

I will argue back with the scum motivation behind doing that:

It's a "safe" stance to take. No one is going to attack you when you read scum on Chevre and Tasky. In fact, no one has. No one is going to attack you when you read town on Equinox and MagnaofIllusion. They're quite obvious.

However, if you start reading everyone else... then you're open to attack.

So, are you reading pure null on everyone else, or is there a spectrum we're working with here?

[Zang]

Votecount-

Chevre - 6 - (Quoi, Equinox, Shattered Viewpoint, Untrod Tripod, 
nopointinactingup, Espeonage) (L-1)
Equinox - 1 - (Chevre) (L-6)
nopointinactingup - 1 - (MagnaofIllusion) (L-6)
AClockworkMelon - 1 - (Tasky) (L-6)
Tasky - 2 - (nhammen, AClockworkMelon) (L-5)

Not Voting: redtail896


It is now deadline so,

Chevre,

vannila townie

was lynched


Night will last 72 hours.

[Zang]

Night has ended


AClockworkMelon,

Vannila townie

has been killed

Nhammen,

Vannila townie

has been killed


Day 2 starts now

[Espeonage]

Ouch. I'm about to head into uni so I will have a better look at this tonight.

[nhammen]

Bah! Go Town!

[Equinox]

I got mass-prodded.

Same questions, same suspects... same promise to read people's posts later.

[nopointinactingup]

Alright. Looks as if there is a Vig/SK.
Which brings my memory back to

To any potential Vigs

- If Chi is not the lynch today he should be at the top of your list tonight.

I find it odd that Magma was able to anticipate the possibility of non-mafia nightkiller in this game. Even more, Nhammen, Chi's replacement got killed. But I still can't figure out a possible connection this points to.

Let's summarize the position of each of the deaths.
*Chevre: Was absent during most of Day 1 until she was called out. Then the suspect-but-not-vote-Tasky ordeal got her in trouble, which is quite reasonable in my opinion. Unfortunately, she flips town, and left behind her suspicion for a possible scum team between Tasky-Untrod-Equinox.
*ACM: He'd been actively lurking that's for sure. But his later posts look better and he even built a case on Tasky. His death suggests a possible Tasky-scum scenario, with Tasky wagoner dying one by one.
*Nhammen: First, Chi/Nhammen flipping town gives me a slight town vibe on Lemon/Esp and Magma and a bad vibe with SV/young and Quoi. Then Nhammen looks damn town and was also the one to support the Tasky wagon.

I don't have as good read on this game as I have with others. Yesterday, I had a town read on Tasky but now all the evidence apparently points to Tasky-scum.
Thus,

Vote:Tasky

I'll Iso him some later time.

[Espeonage]

I'm going to go ahead an presume that nhammen is the scumkill and ACM was third party. What scum motivation is there to killing him over Nhammen.

Consider my vote to currently be on Tasky. I'm doing some thinking before I lay the vote though.

I am not Vig. <- I encourage everyone else to do the same.

[nopointinactingup]

I'm going to go ahead an presume that nhammen is the scumkill and ACM was third party. What scum motivation is there to killing him over Nhammen.

Consider my vote to currently be on Tasky. I'm doing some thinking before I lay the vote though.

And what motivation would a third party have in killing ACM when he's not in the least pro-town looking? I don't think we can presume anything here. The only thing they both have in common is, ofcourse, the fact that they both pushed for a Tasky wagon.

I am not Vig. <- I encourage everyone else to do the same.

Why would you expect anyone to say they are the Vig? And what about the 50% possibility of an SK around you haven't mentioned?

[Espeonage]

As you say ACM makes no sense as a kill for any third party. Nor does it makes sense from mafia. Vig does make sense. If you are not Vig say so. Roll with it. There is a purpose to this.

[nopointinactingup]

No. I will not say so, are you role fishing to find the Vig?

[Espeonage]

Eh I give up.
VOTE: Tasky

[Equinox]

Ew... NK speculation.

nopointinactingup, I fail to see how all the arrows definitively point to Tasky being scum. For all we know, scum chose to do that to drop suspicion on Tasky; speculating on reasons for NKing might be useful sometimes, but it's also heavy WIFOM. For me, the two kills on people who suspected Tasky were coincidental.

Why would you point out MagnaofIllusion's comment?

Espeonage, does it matter who killed whom? Until we can figure out the SK or vigilante situation, speculating like that is useless. SKs can kill from a town perspective, too. It substantiates their later vig claim.

[redtail896]

Question #1: Is Tasky still getting replaced? I believe we're nearing the end of his/her V/LA.

Question #2: @nopointinactingup: Why is it odd that Magna would predict the existence of a second killer? Do you thing that line by Magna influenced the second killer?

Question #3: @Equinox: Do you think NK speculation can produce progress/be an effective scumhunting tool?

[Equinox]

If Tasky returns before a replacement is found, I guess we get to grill Tasky again.

NK speculation... depends. I think it would be a better tool in late game when things become more clear-cut. Early in the game, not so much. Scum can also use NK speculation to pretend to generate content, which is why I'm usually wary of it. /theory

I didn't like the speculating that just went on because I feel the circumstances around these deaths are too vague to be of any significant use right now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, my big post just got eaten ... rebuilding now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I find it odd that Magma was able to anticipate the possibility of non-mafia nightkiller in this game. Even more, Nhammen, Chi's replacement got killed. But I still can't figure out a possible connection this points to.

Multiple scum points for you on this post for the following reasons-

1. Classic scum argument that something is interesting / odd / unusual instead of stating that it scummy.
2. Poor argument that Vig / SK should not be expected. Here’s my list of complete Minis for consideration –

Mini 937 – Town Full Vig
Mini 938 – Town Odd-Night Vig and JOAT with 1 Shot Vig
Mini 948 – Multiple Town Weak Vigs
Mini 951 – Town 1-Shot Vig
Mini 962 – Serial Killer
Mini 955 – Town 1-Shot Vig (or regular Vig, don’t remember off top of my head)
Mini 969 – Serial Killer and Town CPR Doc
Mini 974 – Town Vig (note this game was not a standard set-up)
Mini 989 – Town Vig

So on 100% of my completed Minis there was an non-Mafian killing role. Please provide a similar list for your completed Minis showing why you would NOT anticipate a non-Mafian killing role.
3. Pointless Nightkill speculation.

You also, in my mind, get even more scum points for your poor analysis that leads to Tasky as the obvious suspect based on all three deaths.

And what motivation would a third party have in killing ACM when he's not in the least pro-town looking? I don't think we can presume anything here.

The only thing they both have in common is, ofcourse, the fact that they both pushed for a Tasky wagon.

Pro-Tip – A Vig is not a 3rd party and would have good reasons to hit ACM.

I also note further Cognitive Dissonance from you in the bolded section – your first post today was full of presumption that nhammen was the extra kill.

VOTE: NoPoint

NK speculation... depends. I think it would be a better tool in late game when things become more clear-cut. Early in the game, not so much. Scum can also use NK speculation to pretend to generate content, which is why I'm usually wary of it. /theory

QFT

I am not Vig. <- I encourage everyone else to do the same.

I see you’ve abandoned this but I want to ask anyway – what Pro-Town motiviation could you possibly have for using that particular phrase?

Vote Count Analysis –

I’m going to be looking at the vote-counts from each post by Zang in relation to Chevre and Tasky. I’m also going to go through Tasky’s ISO and list his votes in order.

Tasky’s Votes, In Order –

Espeonage – MoI – nhammen – Redtail896– Quoi – Chevre – ACM

If Tasky is scum then then let’s look at who he didn’t vote for and who he voted for early

Didn’t vote for

- NoPoint, Tripod, SV

Voted for early

– Espeonage, MoI

This is for later reference.

Vote Counts –

Those shown in blue are Town based on flips.

1 – No

Chevre

or Tasky votes

2 - Tasky - 1 - (Untrod Tripod) (L-6)

3 - Tasky - 1 - (nopointinactingup) (L-6)

4 - Tasky - 1 - (nopointinactingup) (L-6)

5 - Tasky - 2 - (Quoi, nopointinactingup) (L-5)

6 - Tasky - 2 - (Quoi, nopointinactingup) (L-5)

7 -

Chevre

- 1 - (Tasky) (L-6)
Tasky - 1 - (Quoi) (L-6)

8 - Tasky - 2 - (

AClockworkMelon

, Quoi) (L-5)

9 - Tasky - 2 - (

AClockworkMelon

, Quoi) (L-5)

10 - Tasky - 1 - (

AClockworkMelon

) (L-6)

11 - Tasky - 2 - (

AClockworkMelon

, Equinox) (L-5)

12 - Tasky - 3 - (

AClockworkMelon

, Equinox, espeonage) (L-4)

13 - Tasky - 2 - (Espeonage,

AClockworkMelon

) (L-5)

14. Tasky - 5 - (

nhammen, AClockworkMelon

, Equinox, Shattered Viewpoint,
Espeonage) (L-2)

15.

Chevre

- 4 - (Quoi, Equinox, Espeonage, Untrod Tripod) (L-3)
Tasky - 3 - (

nhammen, AClockworkMelon

, Shattered Viewpoint) (L-4)

16.

Chevre

- 5 - (Quoi, Equinox, Shattered Viewpoint, Espeonage,
Untrod Tripod) (L-2)
Tasky - 2 - (

nhammen, AClockworkMelon

) (L-5)

17 to 19. C

hevre

- 6 - (Quoi, Equinox, Shattered Viewpoint, Espeonage, Untrod Tripod,
nopointinactingup) (L-1)
Tasky - 2 -

(nhammen, AClockworkMelon

) (L-5)

But Magna you say … what does this tell us?

Unfortunately nothing immediately but it can yield some relationships to be analyzed later.

If Tasky is scum –

Who voted for him early in the Day but didn’t appear on his later wagon?

Tripod, NoPoint, and Quoi.

Who appeaered on Chevre’s wagon who was not on Tasky’s late wagon?

Quoi, Tripod, SV and NoPoint.

If Tasky is scum I’d concentrate on these players as very likely scum buddies.

If Tasky is Town –

Who was on both the late Chevre bandwagon and Tasky’s late bandwagon?

Equinox, Espeonage, Shattered Viewpoint

All three of these players were on both late bandwagons. More indepth review of the order of wagonning would be needed.

Right now with Chevre flipping Town I’m more inclined to approach from the presumption that Tasky is scum. Especially in light of the fact that all the players on Tasky's end of day wagon were confirmed Town.

A deeper look into NoPoint, Tripod and Quoi is in order.

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP

-

Who appeaered on Chevre’s wagon who was not on Tasky’s late wagon?

Quoi, Tripod, SV and NoPoint.

SV should not be included in this list.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Further EBWOP -

Didn’t vote for - NoPoint, Tripod, SV

This list should also include Equinox.

[nopointinactingup]

Why would you point out MagnaofIllusion's comment?

Question #2: @nopointinactingup: Why is it odd that Magna would predict the existence of a second killer? Do you thing that line by Magna influenced the second killer?

1. Classic scum argument that something is interesting / odd / unusual instead of stating that it scummy.
2. Poor argument that Vig / SK should not be expected. Here’s my list of complete Minis for consideration –

Mini 937 – Town Full Vig
Mini 938 – Town Odd-Night Vig and JOAT with 1 Shot Vig
Mini 948 – Multiple Town Weak Vigs
Mini 951 – Town 1-Shot Vig
Mini 962 – Serial Killer
Mini 955 – Town 1-Shot Vig (or regular Vig, don’t remember off top of my head)
Mini 969 – Serial Killer and Town CPR Doc
Mini 974 – Town Vig (note this game was not a standard set-up)
Mini 989 – Town Vig

So on 100% of my completed Minis there was an non-Mafian killing role. Please provide a similar list for your completed Minis showing why you would NOT anticipate a non-Mafian killing role.
3. Pointless Nightkill speculation.

You also, in my mind, get even more scum points for your poor analysis that leads to Tasky as the obvious suspect based on all three deaths.

And what motivation would a third party have in killing ACM when he's not in the least pro-town looking? I don't think we can presume anything here.

The only thing they both have in common is, ofcourse, the fact that they both pushed for a Tasky wagon.

Pro-Tip – A Vig is not a 3rd party and would have good reasons to hit ACM.

I also note further Cognitive Dissonance from you in the bolded section – your first post today was full of presumption that nhammen was the extra kill.

VOTE: NoPoint

1> But I did point out I can pull nothing from it and went on to make another case. The only reason why I mentioned it is because it might provide better insight later on.
2> I have never been in a game with Vig/Sk so either Vig or Sk is the entirety of my speculations.
3> It's not just Night Kill, it's also lynch and wagon speculations. I agree that speculation on NK is WIFOM-ish, but that's not what my whole argument are based on.
4> I don't presume Nhammen was the extra kill

I don't think we can presume anything here.

If Tasky is scum –

Who voted for him early in the Day but didn’t appear on his later wagon?

Tripod, NoPoint, and Quoi.

Who appeaered on Chevre’s wagon who was not on Tasky’s late wagon?

Quoi, Tripod, SV and NoPoint.

If Tasky is scum I’d concentrate on these players as very likely scum buddies.

Doesn't both boil down to "Who didn't appear on his later wagon"? Sounds like somebody is trying to create illusions of great number here. And if you ask why, I'd answer that the Tasky wagon to me was not as reasonable as the Chevre wagon.

Right now with Chevre flipping Town I’m more inclined to approach from the presumption that Tasky is scum. Especially in light of the fact that all the players on Tasky's end of day wagon were confirmed Town.

A deeper look into NoPoint, Tripod and Quoi is in order.

Don't give yourself a handful. Pressure Tasky first.

And now for my promised Tasky Iso.
#0: Confirm ( nothing here )
#1: Vote Lemon ( nuthing )
#2: Hate argument with Lemon ( seems like

If Tasky is scum then Lemon/Esp is likely town

)
#3: Hate argument.
#4: Say sorry for posting twice with same content ( not much )
#5: Parrot Magma to prove him wrong? (

self inconsistence is a huge scum tell

)
#6: vote Magma for no reason whatsoever with RVS over (

slight scum point

)
#7: admits to his incorrectness, admits to throwing around votes ( with Tasky an emotional player,

I don't think this is a scum tell

)
#8: vote Chi
#9: vote Mindgamer for hardly a reason (

slightly scummy

)
#10: Explain switching vote is an attempt to get discussion started.
#11: Says bandwagonning is a scumtell (

self inconsistence is a huge scum tell

)
#12: Ask questions
#13: Reply to me on scum behavior
#14: says something's wrong with the quote
#15: reply to me on scum behavior
#16: reply to Magma on scum behavior
#17: Make up questions but don't answer them
#18: His answer + more town-scum talk (

all the discussion generates a slight town verdict

)
#19: Inspect Retro (

slight town point

)
#20: FoS Retro
#21: Being emotional with Retro's reply
#22: Vote Retro for dodging his question
#23: FoS Chi, repeat questions to Retro
#24: reply to young.
#25: Insist people answer his questions.
#26: Came back to Retro, dissatisfied with Retro's response ( the remnant focus on Retro despite the hot Chi wagon gives him a

town point

)
#27: States he wants to lynch both Chi and Retro, just a matter of whom first. ( seems like

If Tasky is scum then Retro/Quoi is town

)
#28: reply to Mindgamer.
#29: reply to Equinox, attacks Lemon for defending Chi and insist on no early lynch.
#30: reply to me.
#31: More attacks on Chi. ( seems like his Retro tunneling has died down )
#32: Vote AWA for lurking.
#33: Rally support for AWA wagon while saying he hasn't forgotten about Retro (

slight scum point

)
#34: Refute ACM, says he wants to pressure AWA to vote but hasn't forgotten about Retro.
#35: OGMUS vote on ACM
#36: More refute on ACM's case on him.
#37: Explain the misunderstanding with ACM. Agrees with Magma's scum list. Suggests a scum list label technique?
#38-45: Rally for more content + random posts.
#46: Make up a useless theoretical question.
#47-49: Rally for his questions to be answered/Rally for Chi lynch. V/LA.
#50: Says he doesn't want to lynch Chi??? But questions the validity of the noob card.
#51: Call me opportunistic.
#52: wants Chi out of this game.
#53: Drops his question idea.
#54-55: Gets all AtE about people not pushing for a Chi lynch.
#56: VLA till this day. Doesn't want to get replaced.

Overall, we see Tasky as a rather emotional player and his trains of thoughts feel coherent to me. That's why I wasn't convinced Tasky was the right lynch despite a few of his contradictions in the beginning of the game. However, recent flips have shown that the player he's pushing a lynch for (Chi), the player who pushed for his lynch (ACM) and the player who was conveniently substituted for his wagon (Chevre) all flip town. Of course, scums could very well be setting us up but Tasky's flip will reveal a lot as there are clear connections between him with various live players.

[Equinox]

Mod: Requesting prod of Quoi, Shattered Viewpoint, and Untrod Tripod.