Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 1.1


drmyshottyizsik - 1 - Zajnet
ekiM - 1 - yabbaguy
kyle99 - 1 - ekiM
yabbaguy - 1 - Beefster
Ythan - 1 - Alduskkel

Not voting: drmyshottyizsik, Dry-fit, kyle99, Netlava, The Fonz, Ythan

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch. Deadline: August 16

[Netlava]

Vote: Zajnet

For thinking the RVS is fun

[ekiM]

@yabba: I'm not asking for completely random votes and no other conversation. I think discussion generally gets off the ground faster if complemented by votes, and that 'real' votes come more quickly if we start throwing out votes right away.

Anyway, I still don't get your semi-random vote. You're annoyed at me so you're voting me? Sounds like a random vote. Unless there's more in the "full explanation" (don't get that, either---what's worth holding back at this point?).

---

Oh, and as for my math...

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

A = Even number of Ts = 0, 2, 4, or 6 Ts
B = Two non-Ts revealed = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 Ts.
A and B = 0, 2, or 4 Ts.

Can't work this out exactly as the numbers given in the setup are inaccurate (not quite summing to 1). However the distribution of Ts is clearly not symmetric if you chop off the top two possibilities, so P(0,2,4) / P(0,1,2,3,4,5) is not going to be 0.5.

[kyle99]

@mod

--- normal wording would be "half rounded down plus one", I guess...

@yabba - From experience, games where people vote early and start bandwagons get going quicker. It rarely hurts.

What's a semi-random vote? You've got a semi-reason you don't want to share, yet you chastised Alduskkel for the same thing. Huh?

I won't

VOTE: Alduskkel

You voted my modafia buddy

[The Fonz]

Vote: Ythan

[Dry-fit]

I don't know how useful setup speculation is going to be day 1.

vote: Beefster

[Beefster]

I don't either, but there was a PR flip so I'm speculating.

@yabba: Right. I overlooked the vigilante.

[Ythan]

Hey.

[Alduskkel]

Hay is for horses, Ythan.

Also, your title makes this pun a lot better.

Are you going to say anything else, though?

[Ythan]

I'm looking over a lot of setup information before I look at the smaller pool of probably meaningless RVS information. Are you questioning why I'm not contributing to the noise?

[Ythan]

Al, provide a reason for your vote on me.

[Ythan]

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

[Netlava]

No, I don't disagree.

[Alduskkel]

I'm looking over a lot of setup information before I look at the smaller pool of probably meaningless RVS information. Are you questioning why I'm not contributing to the noise?

Well with your sole contribution to the game having been one word I was trying to get more content out of you.

I don't think there is much to glean from the setup at this point, all we know is that we have VV or VVVV (and either way, we have at least 1 Vigilante).

Al, provide a reason for your vote on me.

I eenie meenie miney moed.

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

What if someone says they would shoot N0? That lowers the probability that they're a Vig and makes the Mafia's job of finding power roles easier.

[Netlava]

There's really no reason for the SK and mafia not to shoot every night.

[Ythan]

I'm looking over a lot of setup information before I look at the smaller pool of probably meaningless RVS information. Are you questioning why I'm not contributing to the noise?

Well with your sole contribution to the game having been one word I was trying to get more content out of you.

Immediately after my first post? Has everyone even posted?

I don't think there is much to glean from the setup at this point, all we know is that we have VV or VVVV (and either way, we have at least 1 Vigilante).

Anyone with any role other than vig knows more than that.

Al, provide a reason for your vote on me.

I eenie meenie miney moed.

Doesn't match up.

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

What if someone says they would shoot N0? That lowers the probability that they're a Vig and makes the Mafia's job of finding power roles easier.

Good point.

vote Alduskkel

[The Fonz]

I don't know how useful setup speculation is going to be day 1.

vote: Beefster

Meh, anything the town can work out is helpful.

unvote, vote netlava

I can't think of any protown benefit of answering that particular question. I can think of a problem (as Al pointed out). This suggests Netlava didn't really think about it very much, and just went for go with the flow approach.

[yabbaguy]

The big beef I have is that the random votes themselves, save for Newbie games where there's always an L-2 freakout bound to happen, is that nothing transparent ever comes out of those votes alone. Usually, yes, it's someone doing something else controversial apart from that.

Yeah, I picked a random argument that's rather trivial and saw how people reacted to it, and that being that you thinking RVS was going to help was nowhere near the mark. What do I learn:

-you're quite reasoned and level-headed
-Alduskkel has a rather impatient temper in this game, which is fascinating.
-Ythan is content to actively ignore the debate altogether. Also fascinating.
-Zajnet is reasoned when defending that same opinion I find very, very wrong. Not afraid to weigh in.

We'll see where it goes from there. That's why I inhibited the reasons, so I could get more reactions.

Beefster taking a strong stance also fuels the game as well, saying that he thinks speculation is worthless (It's not!).

@Netlava:

There's really no reason for the SK and mafia not to shoot every night.

RB interference is a confounding variable as well.

@Fonz: Help me out here, what question to or about Netlava are you voting him over? The N0 Vig question?

Unvote, Vote: Beefster

. I just don't believe you somehow overlooked the vigilante possibility when practically everyone in the initial conversation of the game made a mention to it.

@ekiM: I think I can explain it now:

0 Ts and 5 Ts are equal probability (1/32 each)
1 T and 4 Ts are equal probability (5/32 each)
2 Ts and 3 Ts are equal probability. (10/32 each)

0, 2, 4 Ts will put an SK in, and 1,3,5 won't.

P (0,2,4) / P (0,1,2,3,4,5) = 16/32 = 1/2.

I believe your logic is similar to saying, "okay I've flipped 4 heads in a row, but there's a 1/32 chance theoretical probability of taking a coin and flipping 5 heads in a row. That means I only have a 1/32 chance of getting this fifth head." No, you're still at 1/2.

[Ythan]

What debate is it that you feel I am ignoring?

[yabbaguy]

Useless pool of RVS discussion, you said. That's pretty much avoidance of the issue.

It's merely intriguing.

[Ythan]

How is it intriguing?

[ekiM]

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

I see big help to mafia and minimal help to town. So, disagree.

No, I don't disagree.

This seems blatantly anti-town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Netlava

There's really no reason for the SK and mafia not to shoot every night.

Not quite true. SK might be trying to hide themselves, and there are corner cases where mafia might not want to kill (4 player LYLO?).

Al, provide a reason for your vote on me.

I eenie meenie miney moed.

Doesn't match up.

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

What if someone says they would shoot N0? That lowers the probability that they're a Vig and makes the Mafia's job of finding power roles easier.

Good point.

vote Alduskkel

This seems like a serious vote, so can you explain it clearly. What doesn't match up about what Alduskkel said? What's suspect about his good point?

The big beef I have is that the random votes themselves, save for Newbie games where there's always an L-2 freakout bound to happen, is that nothing transparent ever comes out of those votes alone. Usually, yes, it's someone doing something else controversial apart from that.

Yeah, I picked a random argument that's rather trivial and saw how people reacted to it, and that being that you thinking RVS was going to help was nowhere near the mark. What do I learn:

-you're quite reasoned and level-headed
-Alduskkel has a rather impatient temper in this game, which is fascinating.
-Ythan is content to actively ignore the debate altogether. Also fascinating.
-Zajnet is reasoned when defending that same opinion I find very, very wrong. Not afraid to weigh in.

We'll see where it goes from there. That's why I inhibited the reasons, so I could get more reactions.

OK.

Your math is still off but I need to go now. Look up boy/girl paradox on wikipedia or I'l explain later.

[Ythan]

Insistent on not accompanying his vote with any kind of random vote stage flavor, yet then felt it necessary to question me regarding my brief entry post, despite the fact that some players had not even posted and in fact still have not. Inquisitive but not about anything useful; the same goes for his questioning of yab about the latter's pending explanation of something or other. Dismissive about setup analysis.

[Netlava]

Blatantly anti-town? That seems like a mischaracterization. I was about to answer the question, but then decided to see if there were any objections first.

[Nobody Special]

Vote Count top-of-page bump.