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Post Post #2625 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 6:15 am

Post by Faraday »

ANI(I think it's him) sounds genuine here, but I remember him sounding similarish as scum before. Mebbe fast and furious mafia?? Idk let me go see if I think it's similar. I don't like the chronopie wagon though. idk why scum can't sound genuine, especially if ooba is pushing him as being cult and he's actually mafia he's going to be genuinely confused anyway, or vise versa.


also ooba's above questions are pretty good points. i'm liking ooba more and more now actually.
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Post Post #2626 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 6:33 am

Post by DarkStalker »

ooba wrote:
DarkStalker wrote:If we can put the Pst behind us, I;l lgladly stop talking about cults. I'm done with it anyways, and I'm sure PF is to.
I'll stop pursuing you if you have one of these handy ..

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I am unsure now about whether you're cult or mafia but seriously cannot understand the unvotes and "Oh! DS is town" statements. Maybe I am suffering from confirmation bias but over the last few posts
i) DS has claimed a role addition which states he knew about cults and cults being able to recruit gods. It was in town's best interests for him to claim partially or let that info out
ii) He has apparently discussed with ani about whether they were responsible for the VV redirection when he his claimed role HAS NOTHING even remotely close to do with redirection.

Help me out ...
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i) That's what we've sort of been doing, no?
ii) I don't get it myself, really.

@Faraday:

The one thing I remeber about that game is me getting modkilled for claiming.
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Post Post #2627 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 6:51 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

So as an aside, given that a lynch will happen at some point and we'll lose the ability to talk about it as a group I'm going to suggest that we get clear about who we want worshiping what factions. At this point I believe that all the JCA items should be out of the hands of their original owners (Tarhalindur can confirm the last of the transfers next time he's on.) That makes them a safe choice (though for the sake of complete disclosure I plan to give the item I have back to Parama which will let him use a full track tomorrow if we do this.) I'd also like to see GOO get past the 20% threshold as Nikanor seems to be cooperating about who we're asking him to neighborize and so I want that ability in the game. At this point I like ooba's latest suggestion for worship votes:
ooba wrote:
JCA (24/36) = 66.6%

Iec - 2
Mina - 2
Nikanor - 1
DarkStalker - 1
AdumbroDeus - 1
Albatross - 1
Chronopie - 1
VV - 4
Katy - 0
MO - 2
Parama - 1
Snow - 1
Xite - 0
ooba - 4
dram - 2
Pom - 1

GOO (12/36) = 33.3%

Fate - 4
Tar - 2
DTM - 2
ABR - 2
Faraday - 2
The person that gets lynched today (at this point probably DarkStalker or Chronopie) apparently won't have their worship count and Pomegranate shouldn't be able to worship from Limbo but neither of those changes would stop JCA from getting to a majority worship and GOO from hitting the 20% level.

If people don't like that plan now's the time to argue against it and give a counter proposal.

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Post Post #2628 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 7:46 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

First: Got S_B's item (hmm, a bazooka? Didn't see that one coming... I should check up on Shaman King flavor). It's mostly as advertised, but it's got a couple of oddities that I would really prefer to discuss with players I trust are town over the night phase before I bring them up in thread.

Second, a few thoughts:
- Now that I look at it, Focus appears to be an exclusively mortal mechanic (to mirror the God mechanics). Since IIRC there's only three claimed Focus actions (and four players with Focus seems like a safe bet given the god factions), either manho had a focus action (highly likely, IIRC) or a mortal didn't claim their focus action (say, a cult recruit). I'm also seeing a bit of common flavor between the roles that have it; don't want to reveal it just yet, though, since Fate doesn't quite fit into the picture as well as I'd like.

Likely setup breakdown:
Gods (16) (likely 4 scum + Survivor total)
- Norse (4): All are masons, appear to have infighting in ranks (due to Loki - possibly indicates more scum in Norse), weighted unusually high on worship votes
- Egyptian (4): No clear defining characteristic that I see, though a protective subtheme is possible depending on exactly how Katy's worship ability works again
- Great Old Ones (4): Appear to be mason-heavy with lots of emphasis on nighttalk (all but one masonizing role is GOO - possibly all of them depending on how ODIN worked)
- Judeo-Christian Angels (4): All are item-based

Mortals (10 -> 11)
- Focus roles (4?): All have a focus action
- Wizards (3): All are masons, most have investigations of some kind
- Oddballs (3 -> 4): Those that don't fit elsewhere (raj, dam, me/DTMaster)
Mighty Orbots wrote:@Tarhalindur, who exactly are you counting as these protective roles anyhow? The candidates I've got before this last batch of items seem to be totallynotmafia who really should be a doctor (and as far as why we're trusting ooba, he'll be passing the item to someone else tomorrow and would have been doing that now if he could; it wouldn't be worth lying about it), Mina with some sort of protection that's so conditional that it didn't protect SpyreX when she used it on him, Chronopie who's a jailkeer (which at least has a penalty that goes along with it), dramonic with his Limbo ability (which seems to have major drawbacks so far as protection goes as well as the jailkeeper like penalty) and VasudeVa (who needs to arrange things a night in advance and align worship.) The only one of those that's an easy to use, penalty free protection is the doctor. That's the one that would be the most obvious hindrance to your chances and you already had a tough role to win with.

It's also worth noting that ooba's argument about Katy that you say you like pretty much requires believing that a doctor in the hands of the mafia would make your win condition unreasonably hard.

On a related note, Chronopie as scum feels much more likely than totallynotmafia as scum at this point. Not just in terms of abilities but more in terms of what they've done in the game.

Assuming that Albert B. Rampage must be town based on a single, throw away line from manho and the rajrhcpfreak's flip (I assume the two recruiters thing?) seems silly but if you can get Albert B. Rampage to be active (keeping him active would require that) I'm all for it.

@DarkStalker, I first pointed out the flaws in relying on the census to clear rajrhcpfreak and his recruit in Post 2259. You came in as a proponent of the plan in Post 2344 (even though you at the time said you had doubts about Albert B. Rampage.) It is true that you later called for a vote count and said you were planning on voting for rajrhcpreak or totallynotmafia but at that point I think the handwriting for the lynch was already on the wall.

For game mechanics and VasudeVa my watch result was that VasudeVa targeted Night Two. I don't think that any sort of mechanics involving the shift should have been effecting that at the time as SpyreX wasn't a factor. Who if anyone VasudeVa would have been protecting from his night one target might have been but not who he was targeting that night.

@Nikanor, ooba won't be able to pass the item today; tomorrow he'll be getting it to someone (possibly totallynotmafia possibly someone else) but we'll have to wait as the ability to pass that particular item has already been used.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
Roles I was counting as protective were TNM, chronopie, VasudeVa, and DTMaster (the +1 I was referring to). I wasn't counting Mina (she seems primarily investigative to me), and I'd forgotten dramonic.

IMO, our best chances for finding scum in that group (and I'm almost certain we'll find scum in it) are TNM (a bit weak from the setup perspective, but his play has been bad and Scum Doc isn't uncommon) and Chronopie (given dram as modified jailkeeper he looks horrible - limited resurrect could be really useful for scum here, he has the usual jailkeeper benefits for scum, and again his play is horrible). Dram is an outside chance - the original version of this role was scum (but that was in a semi-Smalltown setup, where I designed most abilities before assigning alignments).

In other news, I still don't trust ooba (read him as likely Cult Leader - DS seems second most likely to me, but I think he's slightly more likely to be Mafia) and see absolutely no reason to base my worship vote on ooba's plan for the night.

On the other hand, DS withholding an ability at massclaim is reason enough for me to want him out of the game. Especially one that's easily imitated by any scum role (cult immunity) assuming even remotely normal cult mechanics.

Unvote, Vote: DarkStalker
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Post Post #2629 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 7:56 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Tarhalidur, if you don't want to go with ooba's worship suggestion because you don't trust him then I'd like a counter proposal. JCA should be a safe worship at this point and that's good enough for me. If it's the disribution you don't like then I'm happy to hear others. I did consider tinkering with it but decided that the one he suggested did much of what I wanted it to do.

The bazooka fits with Shaman King flavor. Parama's item was a Pistol.

Faraday had a 1 shot vig rather than an investigative role and my abilities are a bit spread out (though they include investigations which are what I've used thus far past my universal roleblock and ability to use two abilities in one night.) Mina had some sort of protect and a role cop. I'd be disinclined to say that the wizards were primarily investigative.

You also seem not to have characterized Xite91 on your list so far as I can see.

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Post Post #2630 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:15 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mighty Orbots wrote:@Tarhalidur, if you don't want to go with ooba's worship suggestion because you don't trust him then I'd like a counter proposal. JCA should be a safe worship at this point and that's good enough for me. If it's the disribution you don't like then I'm happy to hear others. I did consider tinkering with it but decided that the one he suggested did much of what I wanted it to do.

The bazooka fits with Shaman King flavor. Parama's item was a Pistol.

Faraday had a 1 shot vig rather than an investigative role and my abilities are a bit spread out (though they include investigations which are what I've used thus far past my universal roleblock and ability to use two abilities in one night.) Mina had some sort of protect and a role cop. I'd be disinclined to say that the wizards were primarily investigative.

You also seem not to have characterized Xite91 on your list so far as I can see.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
1) I should have been more clear. I like the worship JCA idea (only good alternative is GOO, and that's only if we lynch DS and he flips scum). What I DON'T like is that ooba is trying to define exactly which players worship each faction - I've got a nasty suspicion that there's a punisher for defining worship votes that way.

I'll probably decide my own worship vote via a probabilistic method of some kind; I recommend others do the same.

2) I missed Xite earlier. He's an outlier, and I'm honestly not sure what to make of the role - I thought it might tie in to some other roles in the game, but that doesn't appear to be the case. (Unless he's actually Gabriel, that is.)

3) Two out of three investigative roles being wizards and two out of three Wizards apparently having primarily investigative components was enough for me to classify Wizards as primarily investigative. (Faraday's an odd role out, much like SaintKerrigan probably was for the Egyptians and SpyreX was for the Great Old Ones.) We should probably discuss this more tonight.
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Post Post #2631 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:23 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Tarhalindur, yeah, we'll have a number of things to talk about tonight.

If you think that there should have been four focus roles with one scum then the missing one would be unclaimed scum or manho (who's now flipped scum.) There should probably be a reason to believe that at least two of the three known focus roles are town aligned I think (with a reasonable chance of it being all three.) That means that letting them know where the worship votes are going is useful at this point. That's what makes a list like ooba's worth working with.

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Post Post #2632 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:26 am

Post by ooba »

Tar wrote:Since IIRC there's only three claimed Focus actions (and four players with Focus seems like a safe bet given the god factions), either manho had a focus action (highly likely, IIRC) or a mortal didn't claim their focus action (say, a cult recruit).
You really should do that ISO of me ..
ooba wrote:Also some setup news; breakdown of manho's role:

4. manho, died Night 2 by being shot (in the dick). Rolecop: Paul Atreides

manho is a role similar to Fate's; in the sense, that he does not affect his target. Reasons being his willingness to focus on anyone as long as he gets it right (he switches from VV to Iece on D2).
ii) you mean ... that thing? i focus on spyrex.
Since he got his focus right now on N1, his power should have been active on D2\N2.
The first thing manho does on D2 is to check his vote - apparently for delirium but
4 manho ( 2 ) [ 11 ] - manho
Therefore manho was an focus guy who became a double voter if he matched targets perfectly.


A worship plan needs to satisfy these two conditions:
a) JCA gets the maximum (since all weapons are now with others)
b) GOO has to get 20% or above
c) Have buffer enough so that "a" and "b" does not get violated

A probabilistic vote for each townie method does not satisfy this criteria.
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Post Post #2633 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:34 am

Post by DarkStalker »

@ooba/MO/Tar:

Maybe give orders for who will vote GOO so they have over 20%, but then, knowing that we want JCA worship #1, hope that people understand this and all vote JCA. If JCA turns out to be #1, then we have more town than mafia. If JCA turns out to not get #1, then the mafiahave some sort of plan.
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Post Post #2634 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:34 am

Post by DarkStalker »

EBWOP:

more town than non-town.
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Post Post #2635 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:36 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@DarkStalker, that would be equivalent to the sort of list that ooba already came up with. Everyone would be voting for one of the two pantheons so specifying one is equivalent to specifying both. I'd also be pretty surprised if mafia tried to do any big manipulating of the worship votes after a plan at this point. It'd be too easy to catch them at it if our understanding is good (and at this point I think it is.)

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Post Post #2636 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:55 am

Post by Fate »

MAYBE I DON'T FIT INTO THE PICTURE BECAUSE I DIDN'T CLAIM CORRECTLY/FULLY?

BTW WE'RE LYNCHING DS TODAY WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU GUYS DOING.

HERE'S A SNAPSHOT OF DS' LAST FEW POSTS:

"TNM OOBA AND FATE ARE SAYING THEY WANT TO LYNCH ANI NOT ME WHAT THEY ARE ANTI=TOWN!!"
(reality: Only I am anti-town enough to have said something like that and Ooba already confirmed not saying it so I'm pretty sure I'm the only one)

"HERPPP DERPPPP I ALWAYS FIND FATE SCUMMY BECAUSE HE USES CAPS! BECAUSE FATE IS ALWAYS SCUMMY AND FATE IS PUSHING FOR MY LYNCH I AM TOWN!"
(reality: WHo is Animoprh voting? I don't think its me, TNM, or Ooba. LOL)


DS is doing everything he can to stay alive as a fuckin cult leader. No shit.

LYNCH PLEASE.
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Post Post #2637 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:16 am

Post by ooba »

Fate wrote:DS is doing everything he can to stay alive as a fuckin cult leader. No shit.
Well, I am now unsure if he'll flip cult. I'll be glad if he did since that would be a win for the ooba tell. I'd be even be more happy if he flipped Cthulhu since I can then gloat. Right now read is that he's scum but could be mafia too.

Btw in case DS flips mafia, there's an above average chance that VV is the cult leader. A cult role which recruits if worship match could be the punisher role which Tar anticipates. I think he tried to recruit SB on N2 and was caught by the watch. To MO's argument of "But why would he try and lynch SB when an SB cult recruit flip would damn him" - a cult role like the Hypnotist where the person retains the original wincon wont flip cult but town on death (I think - Tar can correct me if I am wrong).

A few shifts to the worship plan since I really do not feel good about clubbing MO with VV.. (Flip side is that VV if town cannot use his ability on one of the prob. townies)
Worship Plan wrote:
JCA (24/33) = 69.7%

Iec - 2
Mina - 2
Nikanor - 1
AdumbroDeus - 1
Albatross - 1
Chronopie - 1
VV - 4
Katy - 0
Parama - 1
Snow - 1
Xite - 0
ooba - 4
dram - 2
Fate - 4

GOO (10/33) = 30.3%

MO - 2
Tar - 2
DTM - 2
ABR - 2
Faraday - 2

Pom - 1 - Limbo
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Post Post #2638 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:28 am

Post by ooba »

Addn: That is the worship plan with the change that VV can vote GOO (and protect one of the five for the next night) if DS flips CULT.
DS town or DS mafia flip means VV votes JCA.
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Post Post #2639 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:33 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, actually one of the biggest issues I had with the last list was that VasudeVa had no chance to protect either Tarhalindur or DTMaster (who should be our most cleared townies at this point, more so than Mighty Orbots is for the rest of you I'd think) if he's telling the truth. There were enough others that should probably be town for him to protect on the other list but if you think that I'm town then I don't like isolating all three of us from that option. I suppose I appreciate your trying to keep me from being recruited by cult but if he's cult then he's almost got to be recruiting people he then has to lynch or some such thing and I don't think that I'm in that much danger of getting lynched. Even if he has to recruit people he's shared worship with to lynch we think that he shared worship with Snow_Bunny night two. This is of course all complicated a bit by the fact that I think that Papa Zito trusts VasudeVa less than I do.

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Post Post #2640 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:54 am

Post by VasudeVa »

Wait, why am I cult?
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Post Post #2641 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:55 am

Post by Parama »

Ooba is definitely the cult leader. Just sayin'.
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Post Post #2642 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:00 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@Parama, if ooba is the cult leader he's not doing it well. He's pushed the cult speculation directly into the center of the game and placed himself squarely in contention as a possible candidate for cult leader by doing so. He'd have been much better served by not making his push on DarkStalker from that direction in the first place. That's all some serious WIFOM but it'd be a truly ballsy move if he were the cult leader.

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Post Post #2643 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:04 am

Post by ooba »

Mighty Orbots wrote:I suppose I appreciate your trying to keep me from being recruited by cult but if he's cult then he's almost got to be recruiting people he then has to lynch or some such thing and I don't think that I'm in that much danger of getting lynched.
You're basing this recruit-and-lynch assumption based on his SB play? It *could* be an overreaction to you spotting him targeting SB. "If I get lynched as cult leader, its curtains for cult recruit SB. But if SB cult recruit dies and flips town, that at least does not incriminate me and I get to survive and recruit another night".

Preview: VV, I never quite got why scum would redirect you. (Since even SBscum was in no danger because Tar\DTM didn't actually state they disbelieved her vig status). Therefore, you targeted SB and she didn't die. Decent case. (In the event DS does not flip cult)

I think the VV voting GOO if DS flipped cult is a good plan. You already have protection roles in the form of TNM's item, Mina's ability (?). There's an above average prob. that VV might be cult and I do not want any of the almost confirmed townies to be anyway near him. In fact, if DS flips anything but cult, I'd advocate vigging VV.
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Post Post #2644 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:15 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, but why would VasudeVa bother claiming he targeted me in that case. Snow_Bunny was in no danger of getting killed particularly whether she'd flip town as a recruit or not. He'd have a great reason to want to protect her (as she was established as likely to be a town vigilante.) I just don't see why he'd bother falsely claiming that he targeted me. Perhaps you see a motive I don't?

VasudeVa just doesn't make sense to me as either scum or cult. There's no motive I can figure out for his actions for either. That's why I think he should be town.

Mafia would have a motive to get his protection on Snow_Bunny if she's one of their main sources of kills (and an outed one who would be a tempting target to any other non-town factions with a kill) even if the town didn't explicitly suspect her. Especially if they correctly understood the protection to be on that worked for the following day night cycle (up to which conditions and suspicious could change drastically.)

I'm disinclined to rely on Mina's protective ability to be useful. She's been indicating since the first time she brought it up in our quick topic that it's pretty fickle.

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Post Post #2645 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:27 am

Post by ooba »

Mighty Orbots wrote:@ooba, but why would VasudeVa bother claiming he targeted me in that case. Snow_Bunny was in no danger of getting killed particularly whether she'd flip town as a recruit or not. He'd have a great reason to want to protect her (as she was established as likely to be a town vigilante.) I just don't see why he'd bother falsely claiming that he targeted me. Perhaps you see a motive I don't?
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He committed to targeting you in this post:
Post #13 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 3:54 am wrote:I worshiped JCA and protected you. I didn't mention it in thread to keep scum guessing.
You claimed in this post:
Post #147 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:18 pm wrote:VasudeVa targetted Snow_Bunny last night.
He couldn't really say "oh I targeted SB" at that point could he? If your query is why didn't he claim to have targeted SB in the first place - there's a simple enough motive - insurance in case he ever flipped cult leader - I mean if he was lynched\NK'd, we'd take a close hard look at his target(s).
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Post Post #2646 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:30 am

Post by VasudeVa »

There is also the possibility that I am lying and that I have a different power that targetted SB, but then again I claimed that I targeted Orbots way before MO said he got a watch on me targeting S_B and I did it without being egged for it.

Soo, I kinda want to be lumped along the GOO worship with the obvs so they get my protection if you don't mind.
Call me Vas, ;D A little less active than I used to be due to IRL. Hoping to be back up to speed soon-ish!
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Post Post #2647 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:33 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, yeah but I claimed to have watched Snow_Bunny prior to that:
Mighty Orbots at Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:08 am wrote:Last night I used a one shot watch ability on Snow_Bunny. Three players targeted her. I can account for Mighty Orbots with the watch. The other two would have been slightly more clear if she'd claimed to have tried to have killed anyone else.
Besides, if she wouldn't flip cult after a recruit then why not claim to have protected her anyhow? If she'd flip town anyhow then, as cult, he'd have every reason to claim to have protected her.

*preview edit* That latest post by VasudeVa does indicate that he missed my first watch claim. It still doesn't explain why he'd lie about his protection if we don't think recruits will flip cult.

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Post Post #2648 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:38 am

Post by ooba »

Mighty Orbots wrote:@ooba, yeah but I claimed to have watched Snow_Bunny prior to that:
Mighty Orbots at Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:08 am wrote:Last night I used a one shot watch ability on Snow_Bunny. Three players targeted her. I can account for Mighty Orbots with the watch. The other two would have been slightly more clear if she'd claimed to have tried to have killed anyone else.
Umm missed this somehow. I retract my case on VV - he can worship GOO with you.
Worship Plan wrote:
JCA (24/33) = 57.6%

Iec - 2
Mina - 2
Nikanor - 1
AdumbroDeus - 1
Albatross - 1
Chronopie - 1
Katy - 0
Parama - 1
Snow - 1
Xite - 0
ooba - 4
dram - 2
Fate - 4

GOO (14/33) = 42.4%

VV - 4
MO - 2
Tar - 2
DTM - 2
ABR - 2
Faraday - 2

Pom - 1 - Limbo
The brief VV detour had nothing to do with DS however - more votes please.
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Post Post #2649 (ISO) » Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:45 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

@ooba, those numbers don't add up right. It looks like a total of 38 votes rather than 33. 38 sounds a bit high but I'm probably not taking the people who didn't worship vote (and Mina's vote being worth more than Pomegranate's) into account. In any case, the percents change to 36.8% and 63.2% which is still in the range we want. I'm lazy so do you want to add things up again and see if you match those numbers? If not I could do it.

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