Harry Potter Mafia - Over!

[Andrius]

And if I confirm, I will claim my role. I'll hold off a name claim, for reasons you will probably understand once you see my role.

[manho]

read day 1, skim through day 2. will read day 3 soon.

kmd, raj, furcolow, MPR are scum, if i recall correctly.

VOTE: KMD

[manho]

i was trying to produce a case on kmd, but i've used up all my brain power during my 2 mega catch up. i'll leave the case tomorrow.

[FakeGod]

And if I confirm, I will claim my role. I'll hold off a name claim, for reasons you will probably understand once you see my role.

This is very similar to what that Dementor guy said before getting lynched......

Does anyone here actually believe that Ron claim Furc made awhile ago?

[Kmd4390]

Andrius, I don't like the softclaim. Put up or shut up.

FakeGod, not sure if I believe Furc's name claim or not. Don't really care yet.

VCA TM coming shortly.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, there's no Vote Count in the lynch scene, so I added in everything between the last vote count on Day 1 and the lynch. I'll do the same for Day 2 if needed. I'll also change the names of those replaced to those currently playing to make things easier on myself. Also, I thought there was a rule that said we couldn't use green, but looking back at the rules, I don't see it, so I'll be using it.

Mod

, if that's the case, feel free to edit all my green to blue or something.

Sudo_Nym

- 9 (manho,

Dramonic

, rajrhcpfreak,

ooba

, ReaperCharlie, FakeGod,

Espeonage

, MacavityLock, furcolow)
MPR - 2 (Kmd,

Sudo_Nym

)
ReaperCharlie - 1 (

Spy

)
furcolow - 1 (MehPlusRawr)
Nobody Special - 1 (Andrius)

Not Voting - 2 (Magna, Nobody Special)

Ok, not for a second am I gonna believe that an SK and a traitor apply towards the "scum on a mislynch" thing. There's another scum in that list. First vote doesn't count, so remove manho from the pool. Reap's claim and my read on FakeGod mean I'm looking at rajjkfdgad/Mac/Furc. There is a scum there.

Rajdskgjadkl's post where he votes Sudo includes an overexplanation of his unvote of Reap and the comment about being surprised he is making the Sudo vote. Scum found.

Mac's claim makes so much sense. I hate trusting miller claims, but this one seems legit.

Furc kind of hopped on MPR, then hammered Sudo over a no lynch. Null vote.

I usually say a scum in the "Not voting" (Magna/Nobody), but jmj was kind of inactive, so it's hard to say anything there. Nobody Special could be scum based on this, but POE is questionable when you "eliminate" a null. Let's just say one of Magna/Nobody as scum.

On to Day 2:

Espeonage

- 8 (kmd4390,

dramonic

, ReaperCharlie, Nobody Special, rajrhcpfreak,

SpyreX

, Andrius, furcolow)
FakeGod - 1 (MacavityLock)
Nobody Special - 1 (manho)
furcolow - 1 (rajrhcpfreak)
MehPlusRawr - 1 (

Espeonage

)

Not Voting - 3(jMagna, MehPlusRawr, FakeGod)

Ok, like I said, SK doesn't count. There's at least one other scum on the Esp lynch. We see two of the same names (rajkdgjal/Furc) as the last mislynch. Andrius and Nobody are also on this one. Yes, I'm on this one too. And Reap again. Hell, if it weren't for the claim, I'd include Reap as possible scum via the VCA TM.

Rajdsafjklgafkl is doing everything to separate himself from the lynch this time by saying that he doesn't want to do it, but voting anyway.

Furc spends a lot of time going back and forth between Dram and Esp. Seems to prefer the Dram lynch. At one point, Furc votes Esp to show us that Esp and Furc aren't scumbuddies (we now have a town flip from Esp). He does a lot more moving around before finally landing on Esp. Hmm.

Nobody's vote is a pessimistic "I give up". Why, if we have so many votes like this, was he our lynch in the first place? Not that I thought Esp was a bad lynch, but so many of the votes on him have negative attitudes. Now why could that be? Oh, wait, I think I've got it. Scum separating themselves from a mislynch.

Andrius's vote was full of awesome and I have no complaints. The Not Voting includes Magna/MPR/Fake. If one of them is scum, it's MPR.

So here's what I would like to do:

1.Lynch these players

Rajdkjslgajadfkls
Nobody Special
Furcolow

2.If we haven't won yet

lynch MPR

3.?????????

4.PROFIT

I'll start us off.

Vote rajjdksghadfjkgfgdfg

[Andrius]

This is very similar to what that Dementor guy said before getting lynched......

The difference is I can confirm myself whilst

alive

.

Andrius, I don't like the softclaim. Put up or shut up.

Waiting on RC, as I said.

Andrius's vote was full of awesome and I have no complaints.

So why do you want to lynch rajrhcpfreak over Furcolow, KMD?

[FakeGod]

To clarify: jmj now known as Magna has been cleared by RC, correct?

[Andrius]

To clarify: jmj now known as Magna has been cleared by RC, correct?

I'm not sure. SpyreX mentioned that he was pissed that jmj was town in his ISO 0, but I don't remember for sure.
Let me go check.

[Andrius]

I used investigate on jmj3000 last night, he is pro town.

Yeah, jmj is town, so that means... MoI is town.

Perfect. We're going to have some confirmed townies today!

[Kmd4390]

Andrius, I'm more sure of rajdhjufrediked being scum than I am of furc. Rajrkdekjfg's placement on the wagons as well as the posts where he made his votes scream scum. Furc was the hammer both times and seems to have a bit of a wild playstyle, making it difficult to tell what his motives are. I wouldn't be against a furc lynch, but rajfhujfrjik and Nobody are better choices.

[Andrius]

I can dig a raj lynch. I just don't know who needs to go first, him of Furc. :/
I think we'll do slightly better with a raj lynch though. Furc could just be playing crazily, in which case he could be town. Meh.

I'll have to look at NS. I forgot he's in this game. :\

[manho]

UNVOTE: kmd
VOTE: raj

kmd can't be scum with raj, by the above post (it was the post right above this when i start writing... nvm it's the #980). i'm too lazy to iso kmd, but i can still do a raj one.
i found that raj is scum with furcolow, for his early random vote on MMM. he actually supported MMM's wagon, but there are tons of reasons for that. but this is more scummy:

unvote

i guess i have to since MMM is gone. i need to think over my next vote.

he unvoted with no reason.

vote: ReaperCharlie

scum should die.

he followed with no reason but a push to claim.
as we know, reaper claimed dumbledore and the wagon shift to sudo. but this post is scum:

i was all for the RC lynch and bandwagon

but my train of thought was stupid

, sudo and RC are not connected. and if RC is who i think he is then no need to waste anytime on him coming back later calling me stupid and refusing and making us go til tuesday before he really claims.

the bolded part is no need if you already know what reaper is soft-claiming.

unvote
vote: Furcolow

this needed to be done.

he went back to his buddy, and again, with no reason.
then he left and do nothing on his long-time suspect. when the wagon fail and a new wagon form, he came back with this.

unvote
vote: espeonage

i really dont want to do it but you all are going to do it with or with out me.
i really dont like furcolow and i really think he should be lynched.
the only reason i am going along with this is the amount of town players so convinced with this lynch.

jumping on the winning wagon but not attacking furcolow.

well i got up in the RC debate and since then ive lost all focus in the game. furlow/MMM has been on my radar all game and somthing just doesnt sit right with me.
maclock... i think the only thing i said was i bought the snape claim. if i said anything else please elaborate, looking back snape would be the best safe claim ever given to the scum.

i really want to lynch furlow. fakegod rubs me the wrong way too.

he really want to lynch furcolow, but has done nothing towards it. clearly scum-buddy here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@ MoI: What do you think of farside's posted wincon?

I had to go back and find what you were referencing here. Farside’s posted Wincon is very specific. The conflicting wincon evidence was part of the final push against Sudo that turned out badly. My wincon doesn’t specifically say anything about the Ministry of Magic specificially. I note there were varying degrees of attack on (farside, Reaper) and defense of (MacLock and KMD) Sudo based on the wincon data

Given the disparate opinions I’m leaning towards Mod having given tailored Wincon’s as an anti-claim measure.

It’s begin to seriously lynch Furcolow time ….

[/off Joel McHale]

I’m not even going to bother going back to MMM’s play since I tend to think it’s really difficult for someone to defend things they didn’t specifically do (including MMM’s rather pointless ‘Harry Potter Sucks’ reaction fishing). So everything here is from the man himself.

Part I – Vote Hopping with Bad Reasons

Let’s look at Furc’s series of votes since he replaced in.

Day 1

Vote 1 – Sudo_nym, for claiming Dementor - Is it the worst reason? No given we had no flips to support potential modified flavour. But it certainly wasn’t the best.

Vote 2 – MPR, for ? – No reasoning and tops it off with a pre-emptive ‘Look this probably looks bad but I Town. Trust me.’

Vote 3 – Sudo_nym, to assure lynch.

Day 2

Vote 4 – MPR, for ? – The post only contains a vote. Later in ISO 12 he states he wasn’t even planning to keep it on MPR.

Vote 5 – Esp, because he claimed that he couldn’t be killed conventionally. Not a single thing said about Esp being suspicious.

Vote 6 – Dramonic, following Reaper’s logic – Note he also tries to throw some doubt on Reaper at the same time (ISO 12)

Vote 7 – Esp, “lets lynch this guy if you think hes my scum buddy, I don’t care about him at all” – Lynching someone to prove you aren’t linked really only works if they are actually scum.

Vote 8 – dramonic, using some sort of point system swipped from the Wiki based on Congratulating the Doc.

Vote 9 – MPR, because he’s “detrimental to town” – no explanation as to why.

Vote 10 – farside, ?

Vote 11 – KMD, for being Reaper’s scum-buddy.

Vote 12 – Rajr, for wishy-washy voting – clear self-inconsistency since Furc’s voting record is far from ironclad. See Part IV below for more on this.

Vote 13 – Espeon, because Furcfails at scum-hunting.

Vote 14 – Espeon, because Furc is not scum.

Day 3

Vote 15 – Andrius, because Furc is confirmed Town.

In summary – His votes have a total lack of solid reasoning and show the wishy-washy, following popular opinion style that can be expected from scum.

Part II – Lack of Followup to ‘Suspicions’

Furc never follows up on his suspicions.

ISO 2 – States that he thinks farside versus Sudo is Town versus Scum. He also states that he ‘has his eye’ on farside. Sudo is subsequently lynched and flips Town. Does he start Day 2 looking at farside? Not until late until Day 2 when the lynch is pretty much established at dramonic or espeon. And without any support.

ISO 39 – He comes up with his convoluted ‘Lynch chain’ (discussed below) and says that Reaper and KMD are likely scum perpetrating newb-scum tells. Does he come out firing Day 3 at either? Nope. He slipped a brief vote for KMD Day 2 but nothing today.

ISO 91 – Threatens Nobody Special with ‘getting him killed’ if Esp flips Town. Any follow-up vote Day 3? Nope.

In summary his ‘suspicions’ seem to dissipate into thin air to be replaced by whatever current direction the popular opinion is flowing. Scummy.

Part III – Setting up Lynches

So our lynches will be as follows:
1. Dramonic barring a good pressure claim that is believable
a. if he flips green we lynch reapercharlie
- if he (rc) flips red we lynch kmd for the scum-buddyesque FoS + OMGUS around page 6
b. if he (dram) flips red reapercharlie is likely green having really badgered him about the scummy medic compliment
c. if he (dram) flips third party (say as lucius malfoy with the malfoys or fenrir greyback with the werewolves as 3rd party or severus snape as a town traitor or survivor... just possibilities) then RC and KMD may still be mafia and we will have to grill them on that
If this plan does not work, I offer myself up to be lynched.

I love the authorative “So our lynches will be” opening. It almost makes up for the fact that this whole chain of events is based on a Wiki tell that is weak at best.

I love that in part c he seems to ignore the fact that MacLock already had a claim of Snape as a Town miller.

Finally the last little part regarding “the plan” not working oozes scum. ‘Look at me I’m so sure my chaining of lynches will work I’ll offer myself up as a Good Town player would’.

Part IV – Coginitive Dissonance

First let’s examine his reaction to Reaper’s claim and subsequent posting -

oh shit you're a jack? that's a very powerful role

Seems pretty clear he read the Dumbledore claim.

Did I miss where you claimed medic?
If you are the medic, you can prove dramonic is wrong?
I'm going to be honest with you, RC, I didn't think of anything other than a save or roleblock or whatever

And yet later we get this. Given the strength of his initial reaction I doubt he’d ‘conveniently’ forget that Reaper had already claimed JOAT.

vote andrius
i am ron weasley with no counterclaim
learn how to read scum

Aside from the wonderful OMGUS here I wanted to point out Furc’s clear self-contradictory behaviour in regards to players and claims.

He states here that he’s Ron Weasly and has no counter-claim, and thus he must be cleared Town.

First let’s look at the following statement.

if

youre

scum reapercharlie is a confirmed townie in my eyes, too, so if we only catch 1 scum we get the benefit of a confirmed town

I’m going to point out the bolded portion. For someone who took dramonic to task on grammar yours is not exactly stellar either (there’s this thing called an apostrophe and the run on sentence is a nice touch).

Now on to the real point – Reaper has already claimed Dumbledore and not been counterclaimed. Given Furc’s insistence that his uncountered claim clears him why does Reaper’s not do the same immediately for Reaper?

Classic self-inconsistent opinions and play. Scummy.

Part V – Other gems

espeonage wagon feels scummy to me... not everyone on it... but you KNOW there are scum there.

also, accord to my role pm, which is similar to what he claimed, his semi-claim makes sense to me.

i am inclined to believe him, and ask that you not lynch espeonage

if everyone is supporting this, though, i will hammer him myself.

Classic scum fence-sitting move to absolve himself from the mislynch with an Appeal to the Majority while establishing that he ‘instincts’ about Esp are correct.

I am not scum motivated
I am really ron weasley
^someone would counterclaim this obviously

The kind of assurance you get from knowing Mod provided fake-claim is safe

Additionally

– why in the hell did you name claim anyway?

i am not voting for espeonage because i believe him, though i don't care if you all lynch him because he's unconfirmable until we lynch him

Further classic fence-sitting. Those posts must have gotten uncomfortable.

Note at the end of the day, depsite saying multiple times that he believed Esp he did go on to lynch him at the deadline.

FACTS:
1) i havent EVER been lynched in a non-marathon game as scum
2) i ALWAYS get lynched when I am town and am trying to hunt scum
3) I claimed Ron Weasley with no counter-claim, and am therefore town

He tops of his cognitive dissocance in 3 (as shown in Part IV) with a heaping of AtE with 1 and 2.

To make a long story short (too late),

VOTE: Furcolow

[manho]

@ MoI: What do you think of farside's posted wincon?

I had to go back and find what you were referencing here. Farside’s posted Wincon is very specific. The conflicting wincon evidence was part of the final push against Sudo that turned out badly. My wincon doesn’t specifically say anything about the Ministry of Magic specificially. I note there were varying degrees of attack on (farside, Reaper) and defense of (MacLock and KMD) Sudo based on the wincon data

Given the disparate opinions I’m leaning towards Mod having given tailored Wincon’s as an anti-claim measure.

i've checked my role pm, and it has the ministry taking control as the wincon. and i'm replacing farside if you don't remember it.

[Andrius]

I had to go back and find what you were referencing here. Farside’s posted Wincon is very specific. The conflicting wincon evidence was part of the final push against Sudo that turned out badly. My wincon doesn’t specifically say anything about the Ministry of Magic specificially. I note there were varying degrees of attack on (farside, Reaper) and defense of (MacLock and KMD) Sudo based on the wincon data

Given the disparate opinions I’m leaning towards Mod having given tailored Wincon’s as an anti-claim measure.

That's why I asked. RC confirmed you as town, and my WinCon doesn't mention the Ministry of Magic at all.

And I almost was swayed to vote rajrhcpfreak.
Furcolow is the play.

So I asked myself why I was going to claim, and it was because Espeonage asked me to (similar wording).
I'll hold off for now.

Can we LYNCH FURCOLOW now?

[ReaperCharlie]

I am NOT down for a raj lynch. Can't post more, at work.

[manho]

i'm pretty sure raj and furcolow are scum-buddy, so i can go with either lynch. but we need to focus on one.

[Bilbo Baggins]

I'll be waiting to see why you're not down for a raj lynch, RC.

i'm pretty sure raj and furcolow are scum-buddy, so i can go with either lynch. but we need to focus on one

This goes for me too.

[Andrius]

Damn it. There I go again.
Sorry for the goof-up dudes.

[FakeGod]

Damn it. There I go again.
Sorry for the goof-up dudes.

nah, it's a good comic relief

-posting quick to say that I support the plan of lynching Furc and raj

o and my vote's already on Furc, and I don't think Andrius should claim.

[Andrius]

Damn it. There I go again.
Sorry for the goof-up dudes.

nah, it's a good comic relief

-posting quick to say that I support the plan of lynching Furc and raj

o and my vote's already on Furc, and I don't think Andrius should claim.

Comic relief eh? That's RC's job.
[off-topic]
That's just a modding account for a game Plum and I will be running in August, and I'm working on Role PMs. Not much fun, those.
[/off-topic]

Then I won't claim, unless ppl want me to.

[MacavityLock]

I'm interested to know if anyone else can back manho's "Ministry of Magic" win con wording. If it's just manho/farside, we may have to pay closer attention there.

----

Andrius, I don't need to hear you confirm yourself at the moment. However, I would like to know if there are game conditions such that you will no longer be able to confirm yourself. If they exist, no need to say what they are yet.

Andrius, I don't like the softclaim. Put up or shut up.

Kmd, please explain what you don't like about Andrius's softclaim.

[Kmd4390]

Mac, I don't like softclaims because it's either:
A) town basically saying hey scum you might wanna kill me
B) scum basically saying hey town I'm useful cuz of my role but I'm not gonna tell you what it is

Either way I don't like it.

[Andrius]

Andrius, I don't need to hear you confirm yourself at the moment. However, I would like to know if there are game conditions such that you will no longer be able to confirm yourself. If they exist, no need to say what they are yet.

I'm confirmable at any time.

Still waiting on RC.