Harry Potter Mafia - Over!

[Andrius]

Pshhh. Sorry for not being here D1.
Oh wait. I'm not sorry.

Watch who you call nitwit.

[ReaperCharlie]

If you're going to go to the trouble of making a NK analysis post, the least you could do is get it right.

^_^

[Andrius]

Pshhhh.

Its too quiet in here. >_>

[MacavityLock]

NK Analysis:

N1:
Dram kills Ooba (flavor)
SpyreX kills ???
Death Eaters attack RC (Town Vig wouldn't Vig Dumbledore)

N2:
SpyreX kills Dram
Death Eaters kill SpyreX
Dram kills ???

SpyreX killed ooba and dramonic was blocked/target was protected, nitwit. Pay attention.

Whoa whoa whoa! Where did this happen?

[Andrius]

I suppose it happened early D2, when I wasn't here.
When did you get here, Macavity?

[MacavityLock]

No, I'm serious. Andrius, you clearly don't know the timeline of events, which is fine, you just replaced in. But unless you can point to specific posts, stay out of it.

RC, Andrius's interpretation of the N1 NKs was how I saw it too. Where did we hear anything about Spyrex killing ooba or dram's kill getting prevented?

[MacavityLock]

In fact, look at SpyreX's iso 0. Unless I'm completely missing something, that's an outright anti-claim of the ooba kill.

I think I need to read that post closer, as there may be other interesting info to dig out.

[ReaperCharlie]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but what I read in the night 2 flips was that Fenrir Greyback was killed by 'scratching and tearing'. I doubt he committed suicide, so... yeah.

Unless they had the same exact kill flavor (which I will admit isn't too far a stretch, as they are both werewolves), this indicates that SpyreX killed ooba night 1. And if nothing else, it definitely explains how dramonic knew that 'the doc got lucky'.

[MacavityLock]

Read over Spy's iso 0, and tell me what you think. That Fenrir's and Lupin's kills would have similar flavor would not surprise me in the least.

[Andrius]

Read over Spy's iso 0, and tell me what you think. That Fenrir's and Lupin's kills would have similar flavor would not surprise me in the least.

I agree. Same killflavor.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Summarized Thoughts for Days 1 and 2 –

Note I've tried my best to keep this brief.

I honestly didn’t realize jmj, who I replaced, was in the game. So his replacement was inevitable.

Reaper’s play Day 1 was quite frankly scattered and horrible. I’m not surprised he got pushed to a claim. Without the claim I’d be gut inclined to place him as scum but I’m coming to believe this is just a playstyle difference we have.

MacLock’s Miller claims was absolutely the right play, IMO. I don’t like the “I’ve never gambited as scum” bit at 224 but otherwise he looks pretty solid to me. I’m going to look more closely at the reaction to see if there are any tasty tidbits that came out of it.

I’m not enthralled with farside’s play. She has a style that lends herself to being perceived as Pro-Town but her two big targets Day 1 were Reaper and Sudo. Otherwise she spent an inordinate amount of time going after KMD for reasons that look to be grudge related. I’ll be interested to see manho’s contributions.

Nobody Special is playing to my expectations. Not thrilled but so far nothing that makes me scream scum.

Rajr would be a Town read if he was more active. I get a good feeling about his content but don’t like his opinion of MacLock. His disappearance Day 2 also has knocked him from the ranks of Town in my eyes.

The IH / Andrius slot has provide nothing significant that could lead me to a read. I’m not a fan of that.

MPR is playing his normal useless, lurking self.

KMD I am undecided on. He posts frequently and questions / interacts with enough players that my guts says he’s Town. On the other side his Day 1 dust-ups with MacLock don’t sit well with my mind, which says he’s Scum.

FakeGod falls similarly to KMD for me. He’s providing opinions and content but his opinions Day 1 regarding MacLock conflict me.

Furcolow looks increadibly scummy to me. Setting up lynches Day 2. His vote and opinion shifts like the wind. You definitely get the deepest look now that I am caught up.

[Andrius]

@ MoI: What do you think of farside's posted wincon?

The IH / Andrius slot has provide nothing significant that could lead me to a read. I’m not a fan of that.

At least I'm not a scum read.

I need to change my attitude here.

[ReaperCharlie]

Dram is not super scum and I seriously don't get the twirling mustaches busted scum vibe from it because its pretty clear something weird happened last night.

Tinfoil theory two: Something REALLY strange happened last night and ooba wasn't even the target of it. We are, more likely than not, missing an actual Death Eater kill (flavor speculation the only way it makes sense for ooba to be a DE-kill is if they have individualized kill flavor and they sent Fenrir to do it).

Out of SpyreX's iso 0, I've quoted what's relevant to our discussion so nobody has an excuse to be lazy and not look it up. One thing he says twice is that 'it's pretty clear something weird happened last night', and then it's possible that 'something REALLY strange happened last night'. He doesn't exactly go into what that might BE, which is disappointing... but (knowing about SpyreX being vig, and assuming werewolf kill flavors were the same), dramonic might have killed ooba and SpyreX might have killed (attempted to kill) ??? but SpyreX saw what he thought was his own kill flavor applied to someone else, and been like 'wtf? was I redirected?'.... which would make sense of him to think that. and it would also make sense that he assumed we were missing a Death Eater kill. Which means (yes!) that a doc got lucky and protected correctly.

But what I think he was missing was that he thought that dramonic had come to the same conclusion in the same way as him, and it therefore made sense somehow... so he did this in iso #2:

Vote: Esp

I feel like I'm missing something important, but not enough to dissuade this fo now

buuuuuuut my guess is that he realized after Esp flipped town that dramonic WAS scum for realizing that (and yes, he was missing something important. the important thing was that only a killing role who'd realized their target didn't die could know a doc had protected it, other than a doc or interestingly enough, a watcher) after which he chose to vig kill dramonic. bravo.

and it's anyone's guess what happened to dramonic's kill last night. maybe he was blocked because the scum either thought he was doc or SK (they'd know he wasn't death eater scum), which would also make sense.

Anyways, I hate to sheep spyrex NOW, because yesterday I thought his deflection of the dramonic wagon onto Esp was preeettty scummy. but yeah. here's who he thought was scum so here is where would begin looking for lynch candidates:

On the short list:
Esp, Raj, Fur, MPR, IH

And yeah out of these, one's dead and one's been replaced, so what's left is: raj, fur, mpr, and andrius.

I agree that furcolow seems really scummy but I also am privy to the knowledge that playing like that (all over the place, accusing everyone, stirring sh*t up) is his play style. I definitely agree with Andrius. I suppose I could see him trying to bus furc early on today with an early vote, but I admit that I am baffled by his quick hop to FakeGod. It's like he's too antsy with his vote on a scumbuddy and wants to hop to the earliest mislynch possible... don't know for sure if I am flattered or disgusted? Either way, it makes the FakeGod wagon feel dirty/scummy to me so I'm gonna...

Unvote

But also, then again, i'm wondering if it's all just an act, and Andrius is just trying to buddy up to me and butter me up with the whole 'ooohhh yea reaper's making an alliance!' thing, which i so far haven't really stated an intention of doing. he is trying too hard to fit in and i dont like it.

Vote: Andrius

---

But basically my point for the whole 'kill flavor being or not being the same' argument is: you HAVE to assume that their kill flavors were the same in order to speculate what Andrius speculated about who killed who on night 1. I was the one who made a logical conclusion based on what we KNOW, and he made that NK analysis post based on what he ASSUMES. Which is all fine and dandy except for the fact that Harry's Patronus IS actually named Prongs (after his father) in this game. And not only can he be killed, but he can talk after he's dead, even though he shouldn't be able to talk or be killed at all! So... I think it's safe to say we should be sticking to what we know instead of just assuming things that may or may not be true.

However, I don't think it matters in the long run who killed ooba on Night 1. They both had incentive to kill him (were of different faction), and it really doesn't matter which it was, because he's dead and they're both dead and that's exactly 2/3 awesome-sauce!

[rajrhcpfreak]

Rajr would be a Town read if he was more active. I get a good feeling about his content but don’t like his opinion of MacLock. His disappearance Day 2 also has knocked him from the ranks of Town in my eyes.

well i got up in the RC debate and since then ive lost all focus in the game. furlow/MMM has been on my radar all game and somthing just doesnt sit right with me.
maclock... i think the only thing i said was i bought the snape claim. if i said anything else please elaborate, looking back snape would be the best safe claim ever given to the scum.

i really want to lynch furlow. fakegod rubs me the wrong way too.

[FakeGod]

Moving on.

It's great that everyone has bunch of opinions, but people, quit chickening out on your votes. No one's even close to a lynch.

@Esp: Would be great if you explained a bit, but I understand if you really don't care.

[Andrius]

@ rajrhcpfreak (i spelled his name right): So you want to lynch Furcolow, but you're not voting him? Why not?

And yeah out of these, one's dead and one's been replaced, so what's left is: raj, fur, mpr, and andrius.

If we're going to play by the list, can we lynch Furcolow now? If not Furcolow then raj.

I definitely agree with Andrius. I suppose I could see him trying to bus furc early on today with an early vote, but I admit that I am baffled by his quick hop to FakeGod. It's like he's too antsy with his vote on a scumbuddy and wants to hop to the earliest mislynch possible... don't know for sure if I am flattered or disgusted? Either way, it makes the FakeGod wagon feel dirty/scummy to me so I'm gonna...

I've been approaching this game from the wrong angle for a fair bit. Sorry friends.

LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW.
If not him then rajrhcpfreak.

But also, then again, i'm wondering if it's all just an act, and Andrius is just trying to buddy up to me and butter me up with the whole 'ooohhh yea reaper's making an alliance!' thing, which i so far haven't really stated an intention of doing. he is trying too hard to fit in and i dont like it.

Sorry, but my last buddy was NK'd, if you haven't noticed. >_>
And you usually make an alliance in the games we're in together. I find it odd you aren't making one yet, so I asked. It seems whenever I ask to be included I'm not, and when I don't I'm included anyway.

[Andrius]

lol I'll totally get serious in a bit, dudes.
No offense Furcolow, I just think you're scum.

[ReaperCharlie]

And you usually make an alliance in the games we're in together. I find it odd you aren't making one yet, so I asked. It seems whenever I ask to be included I'm not, and when I don't I'm included anyway.

Funny pattern, that, isn't it?

[/sarcasm]

LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW LYNCH FURCOLOW.
If not him then rajrhcpfreak.

I, too, would much rather lynch furc than raj, or at least would be much more easily persuaded. I'm not sure we should lynch raj at all actually, but I don't want to go into why until later. Either way, my vote's still on you. And speaking of you, I don't recall ever getting a satisfactory answer to my question in post 929. Power up those elucidatory engines and fire away!

Any day now.

[Andrius]

Pshhh. I haven't played with you as scum, so I'm thinking I'll meta you and do some reading.

We can not lynch rajrchpfreak too, I'm just saying that it goes Furc > raj > MPR > Andy. [/opinion]

I did answer that Q, if you mean the "Quick question".

I never said I was against a FakeGod lynch. I just prefer Furcolow over FakeGod.

LYNCH FURCOLOW. We can talk about why raj/me is town at a later date.

[Espeonage]

@ FG: What do you want me to explain?

[ReaperCharlie]

We can not lynch rajrchpfreak too, I'm just saying that it goes Furc > raj > MPR > Andy. [/opinion]

So... where is FakeGod on this list?

I did answer that Q, if you mean the "Quick question".

I never said I was against a FakeGod lynch. I just prefer Furcolow over FakeGod.

LYNCH FURCOLOW. We can talk about why raj/me is town at a later date.

No, I think I wanna talk about you right now. You seem pretty antsy to push a wagon on furcolow, and while I agree he is scummy, he's at least playing somewhat to his town meta. You on the other hand are not.

What I'm asking is: Why would you immediately sheep me onto FakeGod's wagon, even when A) you said that you don't think FakeGod is that scummy, and B) he's not on your list above? Though it's a good place to start, you seem to be backtracking yet AGAIN and want to just tunnel on those individuals.



Ladies and gents, my scumdar is beeping incessantly.

--

[Andrius]

We can not lynch rajrchpfreak too, I'm just saying that it goes Furc > raj > MPR > Andy. [/opinion]

So... where is FakeGod on this list?

This was SpyreX's list, which you used. FakeGod would go between Furcolow and rajrhcpfreak.

I did answer that Q, if you mean the "Quick question".

I never said I was against a FakeGod lynch. I just prefer Furcolow over FakeGod.

LYNCH FURCOLOW. We can talk about why raj/me is town at a later date.

No, I think I wanna talk about you right now. You seem pretty antsy to push a wagon on furcolow, and while I agree he is scummy, he's at least playing somewhat to his town meta. You on the other hand are not.

What I'm asking is: Why would you immediately sheep me onto FakeGod's wagon, even when A) you said that you don't think FakeGod is that scummy, and B) he's not on your list above? Though it's a good place to start, you seem to be backtracking yet AGAIN and want to just tunnel on those individuals.

Ok. Let's talk about me. I'm male, live in the PST, and love

long walks on the beach

my role in this game.
I want to lynch him b/c he's scum. I'm town, and confirmable at any time. (You however, are not 100% town confirmable, so shut it.) So shut your trap and start voting scum. (Yeah, I'm being blunt. STFU.) I don't have a town meta. Try and find one. I'm no longer a bleeding-heart VI, so there goes my old town meta.

B) He's not on the above list because you specifically quoted SpyreX's list of scum.
A) I'd rather lynch Furcolow, but I won't stop at nothing to derail a FakeGod wagon.

Happy now? Or would you rather out me?

[Espeonage]

Self confirm then pleases

[Andrius]

Self confirm then pleases

I'd like RC to support this, and maybe MoI. :/

[Andrius]

Actually, just RC will do.