Michel is an IC. Shouldn't he be dead by now? I mean, scum would probably kill off the most experienced players first, and it is already day 3.
I think that Michel may be scum.
@Michel
Any reasoning as to why you may still be alive?
Not if the Mafia want to place the blame on Michel.
@Michel
You believe that i am a part of a TKE-Jerb scum pair, now I don't believe that you are Scum, so i wonder who has manipulated you to believe that, there is our scum people, I am not Scum Michel, and you can not make any mistakes at LYLO. Think before you make a very big mistake,
i am going to be extremely inactive but will try to post at least every 72 hours sorry.
Michel is an IC. Shouldn't he be dead by now? I mean, scum would probably kill off the most experienced players first, and it is already day 3.
I think that Michel may be scum.
@Michel
Any reasoning as to why you may still be alive?
I don't know if I follow this logic. What you're basically saying is, "Scum kills off experienced players first. Michel is an experienced player and still alive. Therefore he must be scum." The problem I have with this is that Haylen, another experienced player, was killed on D2, and you, an SE, are still alive. Therefore, you, as an SE, are just as liable to be scum. For all the talk of you lurking and the fact that you're an experienced player, why are YOU still alive?
Spent the last 2.5 hours rereading. Unfortunately, my computer is being horribly slow, and reading the thread of this game is rather frustrating. I didn't make nearly as much progres as I wanted. I've read all of day 1 now, making notes as I went along, but I won't be completing my reread today.
@TKE: the main reason I believe you are scum with Jerbs is the behaviour of Xc0m day 1.
Just saying that you're town is not going to convince me. If you're town, then either Bemyally or Jmurph has to be scum. I'm having trouble seeing the case against either of them, though. Mind making an argument?
I'm sorry but I have about 10 minutes. So I'm sorry Michel. No persusasive case. But if you are conviced that jerb is scum then I can only conclude that jmurph must be his scum partner. I have no tells on you Michel or bemyally. ( not anymore anyway). So by the process of elimination. Jmurph is the most likely option.
The King of Eggs wrote:I'm sorry but I have about 10 minutes. So I'm sorry Michel. No persusasive case. But if you are conviced that jerb is scum then I can only conclude that jmurph must be his scum partner. I have no tells on you Michel or bemyally. ( not anymore anyway). So by the process of elimination. Jmurph is the most likely option.
UNVOTE:
Vote jmurph
So you have no tells on Michel or bemyally? Do you have any tells on me? Because if you have no tells on me as well, then Michel or bemyally is, by your logic, just as likely to be scum.
Michel is an IC, so theoretically, he is more experienced than I. Also, I'm pretty sure Haylen was killed D2 because Wacka claimed cop on D1, making him the NK for N1.
Also, there has been talk of me lurking. I believe scum would like to keep me alive to mess the town up. Thats with WIFOM, of course
"Those that hammer others are called scum. But I think those who lurk and refrain from voting are worse than scum. If I'm going to be called scum either way, I'd rather hammer! And if that's not being a proper Mafia player, then I'll destroy that idea!"
I don't exactly think that Jmurph is scum, she's provided us with a bit of information and by Jerb's logic of messing the town up, I would say that applies to everyone else, don't you think?
Michel is an IC and he hasn't been killed yet.
My comment on that is if he is town (and we don't know), scum is waiting for town to figure out that something is up (as in, why he isn't dead yet).
In another game I played, I came across as experienced and players thought something was up, plus I think I picked out some wrong people to lynch and wa-lah suddenly I have all these people accusing me of being scum for 'leading town to lynch town'. The cop ended up inspecting me and before he died he said I was innocent. Cop says I'm innocent, I died the next night. Why? Scum have no use for me anymore! Because I was named a definite innocent I was killed.. so now they couldn't use me to continue to mess town up.
ANYWAY, my point is that scum have all sorts of motives for keeping an innocent alive. They, of course need a scapegoat. Michel might be one of them. I find it funny how it's only now (though it's only day 3 the game has gone on for some time) that someone points out 'hey! michel's still alive! ain't that funny?' I think it's time (and the scum know it too) that they make their move now we're in lylo, it could mean them winning the game. The flurry of comments that have now come in are crucial and I am now more willing to vote either TKE or Jerbs.
@TKE: I don't see how your case on Jmurph is valid, btw. If you think Jmurph is scumpartners with Michel, why don't you just vote Michel...? If you have no read on Michel or me, what read do you have on Jmurph? So far she has given advice and been active.
Oh one more thing, the reason why I'm still alive is because I'm very good at giving out scumreads.
To me, Haylen was kept alive because she lurked like crazy. (ie. -Haylen lurks- 'Gosh she must be scum!)
I'll first comment on the players in this game, then on possible scumpairings.
Bemyally: Bemyally's play in the beginning of the game was rather weak, and she got attacked for it. After that, her play improved, though. Her willingness to attack me was unlikely to come from scum, because it will probably draw more flak to her then that it will help her get a mislynch on me. She was the first on the M=W wagon, for reasonably solid reasons, when I believe scum would have followed up their suspicions on mb53 to bring him to L-1 and get a mislynch. During day 2, Bemyally was the only player who all out defended Haylen. Finally, with Jerbs attacking me today, it seems likely that scum want to use Bemyally's suspicion on me to get a mislynch. I have a rather strong town read on her.
Jerbs: Oh dear. For most of the game, Jerbs has been completely useless. I count a grand total of 3 posts that could be considered scumhunting, one of which was on an easy target during the beginning of the game, one of which was based on events that happened long ago, and one of which is an attack on me during Lylo. His vote at the end of day 1 is extremely lazy, with no explanation whatsoever why Wacka is the correct lynch, which is rather bad for an L-1 vote. Day 2 was even worse, with no attempt whatsoever to even pretend being interested in a lynch on scum. If someone is guilty of lying low in the hope of surviving by avoiding attention (aka active lurking) it's Jerbs. Very likely scum.
Jmurph: During day 1, Jmurph basically only attacks Wacka, completely ignoring everyone else. Quite a lot of her posts are useful but don't take a stance. Potentially keeping her options open. I'm also not too happy with her vote for Haylen on day 2. She made no attempt whatsoever to use the information of day 1 to find scum, and the way she preferred a Haylen lynch over a Jerbs lynch doesn't sit well with me. I could see her as scum, though I don't have strong reasons to believe she is.
The King of Eggs: I have already discussed Xc0m's vote for demongob and his switch to Bemyally. I would also like to point out his unvote of Bemyally immediately after M=W unvoted, when the wagon was no longer a viable lynch. His vote for M=W was not made for reasons that are indicative of M=W being scum, even though it did bring the wagon to L-2 close to deadline. Overall, very suspicious play by him. Tyrope replaced in, but never posted anything of note before replacing out again. TKE's hammer of Haylen is an excellent way of avoiding responsibility when he didn't do anything to prevent the lynch. A highly suspicious player slot.
Some comments on possible pairings. Ignoring pairings including Bemyally, because it's unlikely she is scum.
Jerbs - Jmurph: If the two of them are scum together, then only town would have been part of the M=W wagon that got to a lynch. I find that unlikely. If Jerbs was scum with Jmurph, he would likely have pushed the M=W wagon to L-1.
Jerbs - TKE: At least one of these two has been on every major wagon in the game, usually as later voters.
Jmurph - TKE: During day 3, both Jmurph and TKE defended me. With Bemyally already having expressed suspicion on me, and Jerbs questioning why I am still alive, I would probably be an excellent mislynch target for a Jmurph-TKE pairing, and at least one of them would have joined in on the attack.
Almost all information seems to indicate a Jerbs-TKE pairing. The only thing that's making me doubt is the fact that I wasn't nightkilled, even though I was suspicious of such a pairing from day 1. If Jmurph is scum, she would have an excellent reason to keep me alive in the fact that I am unlikely to vote her of. But Jerbs-TKE hoping to get my mislynch would also keep me alive.
@Michel: Your case had some nice analysis. Oh, and good to know that I'm finally giving out town reads (though I'm not quite sure how I did it).
TBH, I did express my suspicion of you only because the game was not moving. If it were, I wouldn't even think of it. Also, if it turned out that people agreed, I think now is a great time to confess that
*I would have unvoted.*
I'm not sure whether that makes me look bad, but I only voted to get the game moving, by no means did I plan on actually lynching you, even deadline. The reason why I didn't say this before was because scum might have used this against me... somehow, I think. But now I'm pretty much giving everything I have now because we're at LYLO, and town has a high chance of losing.
In some way, my accusation of you has actually helped. I'm seeing you suddenly get attacked in Day 3 because the most recent case was the one I made on you in Day 2(My short argument with TKE doesn't count).
Yes, I can see you as being a possible scum, but you're not pinging the radar as much to warrant a vote.
Here's the list of people that I am willing to vote for, in order:
1. Jerbs
2. TKE
3. Michel
4. Jmurph
Btw, we need more activity guys. This is a critical point in the game, it could mean a matter of town losing if we mislynch, or worse yet if we run out of time on choosing someone to lynch.
The forum just deleted a post that I have been working on for over an hour
As such, I am summing up what I originally meant to post here, as regarding possible scumpairs (explanations and evidence will follow, I'm just pushed for time at this point).
Scumpair possibilities (in order of my perception of likelihood)
-Jerbs-TKE: likely
-Michel-bemy: semi-likely
-Jerbs-bemy: semi-likely
-TKE-Michel: not out of the realm of possibility
-TKE-bemy: unlikely
-Jerbs-Michel: unlikely
As Jerbs appears in more of the scumpairs that I see as being semi-possible, I'm going to say
@Bemyally: the reason I have a townread on you is that I haven't seen you taking positions I would expect a scum to take.
@Jmurph: looking forward to your analysis. In particular, I would like to hear your thoughts on Bemyally, because I really don't see how she can be scum. In particular, the jerbs- Bemyally combination would likely have attempted a quicklynch on you by now.
@Mod V/LA from about tomorrow morning till next week. Just putting it here now so i wont forget.
I'll be rereading, and will be back on with a hopefully useful analysis in about 6 hours
"Those that hammer others are called scum. But I think those who lurk and refrain from voting are worse than scum. If I'm going to be called scum either way, I'd rather hammer! And if that's not being a proper Mafia player, then I'll destroy that idea!"
MichelSableheart wrote:@Jmurph: looking forward to your analysis. In particular, I would like to hear your thoughts on Bemyally, because I really don't see how she can be scum. In particular, the jerbs- Bemyally combination would likely have attempted a quicklynch on you by now.
Honestly, when I was posting what I had posted, I didn't think about that. In fact, it's likely that any scumpair that does not involve TKE would have tried a quick lynch on me by now. At the same time and using the same logic, since I voted for Jerbs, a scumpair that does not involve Jerbs would probably have jumped on that as a quicklynch. As such, I can only conclude that both TKE and Jerbs must be in the scumpair.
TBH, my thinking with putting Bemy in a scumpair is that she seems so blatantly town that it's a perfect cover, especially if she had a more experienced partner, like you or Jerbs. And I'm also using my experience from the last game I played, where the scumpair were the two who never seemed to interact with one another, which is why I bumped the possibility of a Jerbs-bemy scumpair to semi-likely.
Hopefully this all makes sense. I am 100% convinced, based off of the lack of quick-lynch on myself after TKE's vote, and the lack of quick-lynch on Jerbs after my vote, that the scumpair must be Jerbs-TKE.
"Those that hammer others are called scum. But I think those who lurk and refrain from voting are worse than scum. If I'm going to be called scum either way, I'd rather hammer! And if that's not being a proper Mafia player, then I'll destroy that idea!"
