NY 114: Mafia vs. Werewolves (Game Over)

[Socrates]

People using Nhammen's flip as further evidence against me is crazy. I mean, people actually doubted that he was a role blocker yesterday?

Anyway, unsight is a good vote.

vote:unsight

I think the scum are afraid that their mislynch is slipping away from them, which is why some people have started to pile on

after

evidence in my favor comes out.

Unless there is a doctor or some other protective or blocking role (like a jailkeeper, but I find that less likely once a roleblocker has flipped), you are scum. And even then, you still have a good chance of being scum. Soooo... I think that you're most likely scum.

Socrates

, if this doesn't make sense, please explain why. I will vote you if I'm not satisfied with your explanation.

(Oooh, I just noticed all the colors... me likey.)

First of all, there is almost certainly a protective role of some sort in this game (Large games rarely don't, and I am in a position where I can pretty safely say, yep there are.)

But what do you mean by "I still have a good chance of being scum."

And why did you not think of this yesterday, Pom? I had a seven man wagon based on this logic, so you can't say it was a background event.

[Pomegranate]

But what do you mean by "I still have a good chance of being scum."

You still have a good chance of being scum, because even iif there is a doctor (which I concede is likely), it doesn't

prove

that the doctor's protect was the reason for only one kill, and that nhammen

didn't

block a kill coming from your playerslot. It's still likely enough that he blocked a kill from you (or your predecessor).

[vezokpiraka]

Everyone lynch unsight and I promise the socrates wagon will be put out tomorrow.

[foilist13]

@Socrates: The way I went through it, you have a solid 50% chance of being mafia, and if you aren't, you could still be a werewolf which makes the probability even higher, as well as the fact that in the other possibility (doc save) you could STILL be scum.

According to my calculator, that gives you above a 60% probability of being scum, do you dispute this?

[Leafsnail]

I love foilist's horrible, horrible, horrible logic fail. It's just so bad.

How did you calculate the probability of there being a doc in this game? The probability of the doc and werewolf kill lining up? The probability of Socrates doing the kill and so on... Christ. You seem to have just picked a completely random figure out of the air, by denying one possibility for no reason, and then arbitrarily setting the probability between the other two as 50/50.

I also like the way foilist doesn't vote after saying Socrates has to be scum, and then does vote after a claim that makes him far less likely scum. Midnight's Sorrow does the same fucking thing :/. Whether Socrates is town or scum, this wagon is full of fail.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Unvote
Vote: Unsight

This wagon needs to happen please and thank you.

Anybody have a good case of silver bullets laying around?

[Parama]

Okay so:
foilist
Unsight
Pome

are a scumteam IMO
Make perfect sense IMO, someone pointed out the foilist/Unsight link
And fun times from ISOs:

I can see what you're saying about pomegranate, but is that really the best lynch for today?

RE: Pomegranite: Only time's I've played with pomegranite she completely ignored D1, and tended to lurk D2. This is a common pattern with her, which unfortunately means we have no content or meta leaning either way. This is distinctly anti-town, but not necessarily scummy.

(lolmeta)
Unsight pushed a little on foilist too but it seemed halfhearted in comparison to his usual style of pushing a case - and Unsight has stopped mentioning Pome since his late D2 vote.

Hey look they're all linked and they're all scummy separately

[Midnight's Sorrow]

I am sure one of either the monk or the masons are mafia seeing how the kill goes.

SO...Are you thinking what I'm thinking? And that your remaining Mason and Monk buddy might be the Psycho amongst the Sane or the Wolf amongst the Sheep??

[Lowell]

Sadly, the idiotic and non-believable one-shot vig thing makes socractes as town more possible.

[MichelSableheart]

Third vote count of day 3.

Battle Mage (0):
CryMeARiver (0):
Dr. Robotnik (0):
Dry-fit (0):
Faraday (0):
foilist13 (0):
Leafsnail (0):
Lowell (0):
Midnight's Sorrow (2):

Super Smash Bros. Fan, Leafsnail

Nachomamma8 (0):
Nikanor (0):
Parama (0):
Pomegranate (0):
SerialClergyman (0):
Socrates (6):

Lowel, Nachomamma8, Dr. Robotnik, Unsight, foilist13, Pomegranate

Super Smash Bros. Fan (0):
Unsight (5):

Nikanor, vezokpiraka, Parama, Socrates, Midnight's Sorrow

vezokpiraka (0):

Not Voting (5):

Faraday, Battle Mage, CryMeARiver, SerialClergyman, Dry-fit

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 votes to lynch someone.

---

It hasn't been 48 hours yet since the start of the day, so I won't be prodding anyone.

SerialClergyman has announced LA from the 12th till the 26th of june.

[Nachomamma8]

Socrates still has an amazing chance of being scum, and his lurking combined with SGR's blatant scumminess makes his chance of being scum even more likely. Keeping my vote on.

[Dr. Robotnik]

nhammen's role block, which we now know is true is the best evidence against anyone so far in the game in my opinion.

[Nachomamma8]

Then why aren't you voting?

[Parama]

He is <_<

[Nachomamma8]

[qupte="Lowell"]Sadly, the idiotic and non-believable one-shot vig thing makes socractes as town more possible.[/quote]
Explain?

[foilist13]

@leafsnail: You're clearly one of those people who went through high school and college math thinking "what the hell?" when you use probabilities you have to accept givens.

1) If I wanted to know the probability of scum giving up their kill, I'd have to go back through as many games as possible and find out all the ocasions on which they did. I'm not going to, but I will bet heavy money it's a damn low number. Because of that, I'm willing to throw it out as a margin for error of probably 1-3%.

2) I don't know that there is a saving role, so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume there is one.

3) We know it's the mafia who didn't kill N1 from the kill flavor.

4) In order to stop the mafia kill, nhammen had to hit specifically 1 person. In order to stop that same kill, a doc or jailkeeper would also have to hit one specific person. Therefore both scenarios are equally likely.

5) Probabilities are never perfect. If I knew everything, it would only every be 1 or 0. Based on what we do know, it is around 60%.

I notice that instead of trying to show where my math went wrong, something which should be easy to do, you threw out some possibilities and tried to discredit the whole idea of probabilities. The only thing that would accomplish is lessening the amount of informaton on Socrates and discrediting those on his wagon. Now I wonder why you would do that?

My figures did not get pulled from my ass. That is the legitimate probability when only taking into account role info.

[Leafsnail]

GIGO principle. Garbage In, Garbage Out. Sure, you can accept "givens" but just because there are two possibilities doesn't mean they're equally likely. Heck, we don't even know there are only two possibilities.

You also forgot kill-immune roles and the like... look, basically, percentage can't be worked out. So, the crucial question is nothing to do with the roleblock but is in fact "Does Socrates look like scum to you?".

[foilist13]

Percentages are everything to do with it. (Besides, this is part of a project I'm doing about solving games. Mafia and chess are two examples.)

I explained kill immune roles before. N0 the godfathers died. I've never seen a bulletproof, they're in the do not use list for mods, MichelSableheart is a new mod and would not use one. No, I'm not absolutely sure. It is relevant just the same. Why don't you add whatever you can come up with to make the figure more accurate? This is the way probabilities work. You keep adding new data until the number becomes 1 or 0, or until it is no longer practical to add more. This is EXTREMELY helpful in figuring out who the scum are.

[Unsight]

@vezo

"Everyone lynch unsight and I promise the socrates wagon will be put out tomorrow."

My flipping town ruins your plan.

[Unsight]

Okay so:
foilist
Unsight
Pome

are a scumteam IMO
Make perfect sense IMO, someone pointed out the foilist/Unsight link
And fun times from ISOs:

I can see what you're saying about pomegranate, but is that really the best lynch for today?

RE: Pomegranite: Only time's I've played with pomegranite she completely ignored D1, and tended to lurk D2. This is a common pattern with her, which unfortunately means we have no content or meta leaning either way. This is distinctly anti-town, but not necessarily scummy.

(lolmeta)
Unsight pushed a little on foilist too but it seemed halfhearted in comparison to his usual style of pushing a case - and Unsight has stopped mentioning Pome since his late D2 vote.

Hey look they're all linked and they're all scummy separately

My flipping town ruins your scum team theory too.

I haven't pushed foilist13 much because he's way lower on the scumdar than the people I have been pushing (Socrates, Midnight's Sorrow,

you

). As for Pom, did you not read my interaction with her? The whole point of my vote and my listing her as a suspect was to get Pom to actually start doing stuff and it worked. Of course I stopped mentioning her when she actually started playing again because my vote had served its purpose.

[Unsight]

What about his iso convinced you to vote for Unsight, Socrates?

First of all, his vote on me stunk. The fact that the way Nhammen's block on me looked bad "didn't click with him" until just now even though it has been discussed at great length in this thread since the start of day 2? Bullshit.

An Iso of his day 1 play contains very little examples of scumhunting as far as I am concerned, and (I believe I said something similar when I looked at him when I first entered the game) I get the distinct impression that he had been doing just enough to justify his position.

Also, I am distincly remembering Unsights push on Parama around the time that the Foilist wagon started to gain steam. Now both Foilist and Unsight have hopped on my wagon with odd timing. to repeat myself: I think the scum are afraid that their mislynch is slipping away from them, which is why some people have started to pile on

after

evidence in my favor comes out.

"First of all, his vote on me stunk. "

Wah. OMGUS.

"The fact that the way Nhammen's block on me looked bad "didn't click with him" until just now even though it has been discussed at great length in this thread since the start of day 2? Bullshit."

Discussion on day 2 was in the context of not knowing whether nhammen was town or scum or even whether he was actually a roleblocker. Sudden realization of what that means tends to be delayed when posting with 4 hours of sleep.

"An Iso of his day 1 play contains very little examples of scumhunting as far as I am concerned"

How convenient that you find my Day 1 play lacking scumhunting but it's only once there are bandwagons on the two of us on Day 3 that you decide to mention it. You mention me a whopping once on Day 2 and never brought any of this up. You also never responded when I answered your one question to me. Any "lack of scumhunting" you suddenly see is a construct based on your desire to see someone other than yourself lynched.

"Also, I am distincly remembering Unsights push on Parama around the time that the Foilist wagon started to gain steam. Now both Foilist and Unsight have hopped on my wagon with odd timing. to repeat myself: I think the scum are afraid that their mislynch is slipping away from them, which is why some people have started to pile on

after

evidence in my favor comes out."

Evidence in your favor? nhammen whose alignment and role were questionable yesterday is now dead and revealed to be a pro-town roleblocker who said he blocked you on Night 1 (when there was only 1 scum kill). That's not evidence in your favor, that's about the best evidence we could ask for short of some sort of investigation that you're scum.

[Battle Mage]

Vote: Socrates

BM

[Dry-fit]

Vote: Pomegranate.

Seriously.

I don't think the night actions prove anything conclusive about Socrates, but his responses have not been town.

I don't see the case on Unsight at all.

<Insert pleasant surprise at Sevis/Shrine flip

Pleasant?

[Midnight's Sorrow]

<Insert pleasant surprise at Sevis/Shrine flip

Pleasant?

He came D: !

And he smashed!

I'd cross me fingers....buuuuuuuuutttttttttt.

I'll most certainly be

pleasantly surprised

if he flips town.

[Battle Mage]

omg shut up, im lurking. also, might be V/LA for a day. Not that you'll notice, coz im LURKING.

BM