Stars Aligned II - Game Over!

[rewq455]

OK, so I

just

figured out I got a 4th Insanity. I got passed a fetish.

I took Taboo:Launder

@Furcolow:

Avolition, Paranoa & Aversion to VP Balter, whop appears to be dead.

Who is your new aversion to then?

[Percy]

@Mod: Can Cultists perform the Ritual and Launder in one night?

Yes - Participating in the Ritual is a

Free

action.

Also is there truly no alignment reveals?

There has been no moderation error.

[Percy]

EBWOP: I still don't have edit powers, but animorpherv1 incurred an Insanity Infraction for this post.

[kunkstar7]

Alright town assessment:
SOG: Twitchy, Distraction - Can vote: Check.
Furcolow: Twitchy, Hallucination, ?, Taboo(something), (any more?) - Can vote: Probably?
Animorpherv1: Avolition(done?), Paranoia, Aversion(someone), Taboo(Launder) - Can vote: Probably?
Magua: Avolition(done?), Distraction, Twitchy, Aversion(SOG), Sadism, Compulsion, Psychopathy, Paranoia - Can vote: Maybe. Not necessary anyway.
Rewq: None - Can vote: Check.
Kunkstar7: Not even bothering... - Can vote: Nope.

Magua, your best bet to stay alive today is to find who is the last cultist. If you can provide a case compelling enough, you can live one more night. If anyone besides Magua is a lynch today, it'll be SOG, ani, or Furcolow.

Furcolow, intelligent people have already figured this stuff out. Rewq is graverobbing because it is the least detrimental to the town voting block, whether he is town or not.

[rewq455]

Who am I grave-robbing? Also I am going to take twitchy, and what other insanity should I take? I am thinking Taboo:Launder

[kunkstar7]

SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALLY REALLY IMPORTANT!!!

@MOD: CAN CULT PASS TWO FETISHES IN ONE NIGHT? PASS FETISH IS NOT LISTED AS A FREE ACTION.

[kunkstar7]

SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALLY REALLY IMPORTANT!!!

@MOD: CAN CULT PASS TWO FETISHES IN ONE NIGHT? PASS FETISH IS NOT LISTED AS A FREE ACTION.

Never mind....*sadface* They can target up to three players...

Back to my other post, brb.

[kunkstar7]

I've been regarding possible scenarios with today and tomorrow.

(I have made like 3 different revisions of this post...)

Magua is our claimed murderer, the last one. He cannot have stalked last night due to Compulsion, which is also why he has claimed. I personally guarantee this with the fact that my night action revealed he has no blood.


Option 1: We leave Magua alive and lynch possible cultist. Magua graverobs to effectively neutralize him for the rest of the game. This option relies heavily on the chance of lynching the last cultist. Actually it completely depends on that. And Magua's cooperation with graverobbing. Say we mislynch today. That puts us into night with 3 town, 1 murderer, 1 cult. Cult doesn't crosskill. Day 10 rolls around with 2 town, 1 murderer, 1 cult. If Magua graverobs as he is told in this option, then we don't need to lynch him. If he doesn't then, we lynch him and cult win with a nightkill(Actually, a rez may be able to save us here. We need rez kits townies. But we'll just do worstcase right now.) If Magua graverobs, then we get one more shot at lynching cult. If we lynch wrong...then cult wins. Obviously if we lynch cult today, we lynch Magua for the win tomorrow.

Option 2: We lynch Magua today. This puts us into Day 10 with 3 town, 1 cult. MyLo situation, suggesting No-lynch here. With a cult kill that puts us into 2 on 1 LyLo. This one doesn't rely so heavily on Magua's cooperation, but doesn't give us the chance to kill cult today.

Pros of Option 1: If Magua cooperates, we get two shots to lynch cult, once today, and once tomorrow.

Cons of Option 1: If Magua doesn't cooperate and we don't lynch cult today, Magua has guaranteed his loss and a cultwin with his lynch tomorrow. Magua, if you don't cooperate in Option 1, town will make sure that you lose instead of cult.

Pros of Option 2: Don't have to depend on Magua's cooperation.

Cons of Option 2: We only get one shot to lynch the last cult. Although admittedly its in 2 town vs 1 cult LyLo.

In either option Rewq is graverobbing. If we choose Option 1, Magua will replace me in graverobbing. If we choose Option 2, I am the second graverobber.

[Percy]

Vote Count

Magua - 1 (rewq455)

Not Voting

- 5 (animorpherv1, Furcolow, kunkstar7, Magua, semioldguy)

Deadline for today's lynch is

Wednesday June 30th at 9:00pm (site time)

. You can view a countdown to the deadline

here

.

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch...

[rewq455]

How do we know that Magua is not lying about being murderer. Perhaps he is a cultist claiming to be murderer. That means that if we don't lynch him today, he could do another NK, while the murderer possibly commits another murder, giving him the win.

[rewq455]

How do we know that Magua is not lying about being murderer. Perhaps he is a cultist claiming to be murderer. That means that if we don't lynch him today, he could do another NK, while the murderer possibly commits another murder, giving him the win.

We need to lynch today.

[kunkstar7]

How do we know that Magua is not lying about being murderer. Perhaps he is a cultist claiming to be murderer. That means that if we don't lynch him today, he could do another NK, while the murderer possibly commits another murder, giving him the win.

Hm, yes another factor. I have decided that there is no point throwing the game onto the whim of one player. Lynch Magua and we should be able to make the right choice tomorrow, or no-lynch tomorrow and win in 2v1 LyLo.

That means..

Rewq, graverob

VP Baltar

and

DGB

.

(So there shall be no excuses if those two are not graverobbed tomorrow morning.)

I will graverob Farside and Magua.

Lynch team go! Not much more discussion is needed today, we need the flips and tonight's actions to determine our next move. With the mechanics it should be pretty much PoE, so I'm not worried about pushing this lynch through now. I want Rewq to confirm he understands who he has to graverob tonight before we hammer. Once he does, then feel free. Ani and Furcolow shouldn't be in danger of cultkill due to them receiving Fetishes, meaning cult likely doesn't have any of them. So people with rez kits, try and rez the person most likely to be killed. Lets do this.

[rewq455]

How do we know that Magua is not lying about being murderer. Perhaps he is a cultist claiming to be murderer. That means that if we don't lynch him today, he could do another NK, while the murderer possibly commits another murder, giving him the win.

Hm, yes another factor. I have decided that there is no point throwing the game onto the whim of one player. Lynch Magua and we should be able to make the right choice tomorrow, or no-lynch tomorrow and win in 2v1 LyLo.

That means..

Rewq, graverob

VP Baltar

and

DGB

.

(So there shall be no excuses if those two are not graverobbed tomorrow morning.)

I will graverob Farside and Magua.

Lynch team go! Not much more discussion is needed today, we need the flips and tonight's actions to determine our next move. With the mechanics it should be pretty much PoE, so I'm not worried about pushing this lynch through now. I want Rewq to confirm he understands who he has to graverob tonight before we hammer. Once he does, then feel free. Ani and Furcolow shouldn't be in danger of cultkill due to them receiving Fetishes, meaning cult likely doesn't have any of them. So people with rez kits, try and rez the person most likely to be killed. Lets do this.

Got it.

[Magua]

I've been regarding possible scenarios with today and tomorrow.

(I have made like 3 different revisions of this post...)

Magua is our claimed murderer, the last one. He cannot have stalked last night due to Compulsion, which is also why he has claimed. I personally guarantee this with the fact that my night action revealed he has no blood.

(snip big ol' plan)

I'll be honest here. My chances of winning at this point are incredibly slim. But I *will* take a nonzero chance of winning above a zero chance of winning. If you don't lynch me, I won't rob graves, and I will stalk, because doing anything else ensures I have a zero chance of win.

I could lie and say, "Oh, certainly, I will do whatever you say, please don't hurt me," but I don't really see the point, because I would stalk anyways, and it would just make tomorrow more awkward.

On the other hand, I *can* present logical reasons to keep me alive for today.
1) Cult has to kill me to win.
2) It is entirely possible that the person I stalk tonight will get killed by cult, or get lynched tomorrow, which would make my winning impossible.
3) You know I can't win tonight.

Yes, you do have to kill me to win. So does cult. Maybe they'll take care of it for you? After all, you lynch me, you've got 1 cult and 3 townies left. If you don't lynch me, but instead mislynch a townie, it's me, 1 cult, and 2 townies left, and the cult is looking at a 1/3 chance that I'm going to stalk them, so will either have to eliminate me or one of the other townies. Either cult does your job for you, or eliminates another suspect.

tl;dr: I can't win tonight, and there are advantages in leaving me alive until tomorrow.

[kunkstar7]

The thing is Magua, as you have blatantly pointed out, you refuse to cooperate in your neutralization. I don't blame you, its part of your win condition.

(The following assumes we had not lynched Magua and mislynched an investigator.) The chances of cult killing you are none. Why? Because if they leave you alive, they essentially guarantee either their win or yours. It will be 2 town, 1 murderer, 1 cult. We lynch cult, you get your final kill. We lynch you, cult wins with their nightkill. We lynch town..one of you wins, most likely cult.

If by your own admission you won't cooperate with the town, then why would you tell truthfully who is your target? We can't know if your target died, we know that cult won't kill you tonight. So it would be stupid to try and hope for the slim chance that your target dies when we can put ourselves in a much more solid position by lynching you now.

tl;dr: Magua still needs to be lynched. Leaving him alive makes the towns winning ability rely too much on chance and luck. Also rewq has confirmed he understands, so a hammer is a go.

[Magua]

(The following assumes we had not lynched Magua and mislynched an investigator.) The chances of cult killing you are none. Why? Because if they leave you alive, they essentially guarantee either their win or yours. It will be 2 town, 1 murderer, 1 cult. We lynch cult, you get your final kill. We lynch you, cult wins with their nightkill. We lynch town..one of you wins, most likely cult.

I asked Percy about this.

Assume that today is me, cult, and 3 town. Assume, for sake of simplicity, random voting. I break the win % up into town win, cult win, and murderer (that's me) win:

D9 Lynch	D10	Town Win %	Cult Win %	Murderer Win %
Lynch Murderer	1 cult, 2 town	33%	66%	0%
Lynch Cult	1 murderer, 2 town	100%	0%	0%
Lynch Townie, Murderer Stalks Dead	1 murderer, 1 cult, 1 town	50%	50%	0%
Lynch Townie, Murderer Stalks Cult	1 murderer, 1 cult, 1 town	100%	0%	0%
Lynch Townie, Murderer Stalks Town	1 murderer, 1 cult, 1 town	0%	50%	50%

Now, granted, this is on random voting, so presents a worst-case scenario for town, but still:
1/4 chance of lynching the cult today: 25% * 100% win => 25%
3/4 chance of lynching a town today, followed by me stalking....
- The person who dies: 75% * 33% * 50% win => 12.375%
- The cult: 75% * 33% * 100% win => 25%
- The town: 75% * 33% * 0% => 0%

Add it all up, town has a 62% chance of winning by not lynching me, vs a 33% chance by lynching me. The main bonus is that town has a 100% chance of winning after lynching cult today, which you entirely give up by lynching me....whereas my chance of winning is only 6% at best (lynch townie today, stalk townie who doesn't die tonight, cult gets lynched tomorrow).

Just sayin'.

[kunkstar7]

Add it all up, town has a 62% chance of winning by not lynching me, vs a 33% chance by lynching me. The main bonus is that town has a 100% chance of winning after lynching cult today, which you entirely give up by lynching me....whereas my chance of winning is only 6% at best (lynch townie today, stalk townie who doesn't die tonight, cult gets lynched tomorrow).

Ok, I'll bite for a little. (Although there are other factors that you have not picked up on that will affect the later game.)
Who should we lynch instead of you? I would like a pretty convincing case at why this person is the final cultist.
I feel like your percentages are misleading though, even if accurate.

[Magua]

Ok, I'll bite for a little. (Although there are other factors that you have not picked up on that will affect the later game.)

As I said up front, the percentages are for random voting.

Who should we lynch instead of you? I would like a pretty convincing case at why this person is the final cultist.

Well, that's the rub, innit? The only way I can win is if you mislynch town, as I lose if you lynch cult. So anything I say about who to lynch is going to be pure WIFOM.

[animorpherv1]

@rewq:

SOG.

[Furcolow]

OK, so I

just

figured out I got a 4th Insanity. I got passed a fetish.

I took Taboo:Launder

@Furcolow:

Avolition, Paranoa & Aversion to VP Balter, whop appears to be dead.

bullshit. i had aversion to vp baltar and i had to change my aversion.
who did you change your aversion to?

OK, so I

just

figured out I got a 4th Insanity. I got passed a fetish.

I took Taboo:Launder

@Furcolow:

Avolition, Paranoa & Aversion to VP Balter, whop appears to be dead.

Who is your new aversion to then?

Yes, tell us

and

*I GOT PASSED A FETISH*

how the hell can you ANI? The last cult can pass 2 fetishes and perform the ritual? that seems imbalanced! If he can't do this, ani is lying. Period.

EBWOP: I still don't have edit powers, but animorpherv1 incurred an Insanity Infraction for this post.

So, the mod is confirming ani is a liar. This is AMAZING for me as I took aversion to him as he appeared town.

Alright town assessment:
SOG: Twitchy, Distraction - Can vote: Check.
Furcolow: Twitchy, Hallucination, ?, Taboo(something), (any more?) - Can vote: Probably?
Animorpherv1: Avolition(done?), Paranoia, Aversion(someone), Taboo(Launder) - Can vote: Probably?
Magua: Avolition(done?), Distraction, Twitchy, Aversion(SOG), Sadism, Compulsion, Psychopathy, Paranoia - Can vote: Maybe. Not necessary anyway.
Rewq: None - Can vote: Check.
Kunkstar7: Not even bothering... - Can vote: Nope.

Magua, your best bet to stay alive today is to find who is the last cultist. If you can provide a case compelling enough, you can live one more night. If anyone besides Magua is a lynch today, it'll be SOG, ani, or Furcolow.

Furcolow, intelligent people have already figured this stuff out. Rewq is graverobbing because it is the least detrimental to the town voting block, whether he is town or not.

um, I don't see why YOU'RE belittling me of all people. this makes me chuckle in derision. I am a highly intelligent person, just got all A's this semester, had a 29 on my ACT and a barely below MENSA-level IQ at 139. Get out of here with the personal attacks.

I do not see how you can claim SOG and I as possible lynch targets as we are two of the most likely to be investigators. I'm definitely calling bullshit on this and would rather push for you or Magua as you all have such high voting insanities that you all are worthless, really, even if you are town (which I doubt both of you are).

I have two voting insanities. Sadism, which won't matter in the endgame, and aversion to ani. Add those to your lists.

SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALLY REALLY IMPORTANT!!!

@MOD: CAN CULT PASS TWO FETISHES IN ONE NIGHT? PASS FETISH IS NOT LISTED AS A FREE ACTION.

Never mind....*sadface* They can target up to three players...

Back to my other post, brb.

Second time I've come to a new post that is addressing an issue that I have. This comforts me about Rewq and kunk as being town. With them being town, and myself being town, I suppose that leaves

Murderer = Magua
Cultist = Ani?

would also explain ani's day 1 "action" and his lying about his insanities... only problem is I can't vote him.



I am also not 100% on ani. I'd give SoG and rewq about 10% on being cult...

As for who to resuscitate, do it on me. I would put my hand on a bible that I was passed a fetish. Ani is a proven liar.

[Furcolow]

if you all don't lynch ani today we will lose as i can't vote him tomorrow (if he is cult)

[kunkstar7]

Furcolow, cult can pass three fetishes and perform the ritual, all in one night. The Ritual is a free action therefore they can pass fetish as well, and Pass Fetish can target up to three players. That was why *sadface*.
I'm not going to go into bantering about grades. I'm trying to point out that you aren't seeing a lot of the finer details regarding the mechanics. Seriously, you are missing a lot.

Well, that's the rub, innit? The only way I can win is if you mislynch town, as I lose if you lynch cult. So anything I say about who to lynch is going to be pure WIFOM.

Well two can play at this game . Without a suitable cult suspect, I see little reason to diverge from the Magua lynch today.

Furcolow, I see little chance that you are in danger of being ritual'ed as they have to have a fetish of you to do it on you, and they just used their fetish on you, so I assume they do not currently have one.

[kunkstar7]

Furcolow, state how you got each insanity I only recall reasoning for like 3 of them, and now you have five?


Twitchy, Hallucination, Aversion(Animorpherv1), Taboo(something), Sadism. Explain how you got each of these please.

[kunkstar7]

Also tomorrow I will have gained the ability to vote, as my Avolition should expire. My requirements to vote are must be L-1 or hammer, Twitchy, and I can't vote Magua (had to switch my aversion from VP last night and we didn't get Magua's claim till after I chose my new target). Unless my graverobbing tonight renews my Avolition.

[animorpherv1]

MOD: I AM V/LA IN THE DATES UDNERLINED IN MY SIG.