Newbie 937 ~ Mafia Lite [Game Over]

[Excedrin]

So, can someone explain to me what the purpose of the massclaim is/was? What else would have happened except for everyone except Damien777 claiming VT?

I wanted to see whether skerterg's "guess" of everyone's roles included Excedrin = cop.

[skerterg]

NOTE: I wrote the first part before everyone finished claiming.

Damien did kind of ruin/give up on his own plan. But it wasn't that good of one anyway; I don't think you could have convinced me that you are not the doctor. Though I guess you could have waited for the others and not me. Maybe I should have just shut up.

"USUALLY on the side of town" is where EVERYONE is, and is quite different from the initial "MOSTLY sided with town feeling so far". Also, you're forgetting someone that I also underlined, and that fits the requisites for your accusation. Care to check it?

Sorry for my language; I'll be forceful if you want. You are ALWAYS on the side which the majority of the town is on, except for possibly one instance. (This is what I meant when I said usually).

There is no one else like this. I don't know who you are implying. If it's horror, then I addressed it. If it's me, then you are totally not getting it:

Breaking up the situations into bare bones:

"ahoda": Red Star, horror, skerterg, Exilon is majority; kelikar was minority (with ahoda)

"pops": horror, kelikar, and Exilon forms majority; skerterg minority (along with pops of course)

"razorback": Red Star, Leafsnail, kelikar, horror, and Exilon form majority; skerterg, Excedrin, and razorback form minority, with pops acting strangely.
*****This is the most interesting by far; see below for more explanation.*****

"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Exilon and horror form "majority" and Excedrin "minority." They are in quotes because most of us didn't really side with one or the other. So, this isn't that good an example.

"pops II": Red Star, skerterg, Exilon, and kelikar form majority, and Excedrin and pops minority.

"KageLord": skerterg, pops, Excedrin, Exilon form majority, with KageLord minority. I don't remember if anyone defended him; I think opinions in general changed.

"horrordude": Excedrin, skerterg, Red Star form majority, with horror minority. Exilon said:

Right now I'd prefer a Pops lynch over Horror, as I don't find him really scummy. Although his answers to Excedrin's case (or semi case) are lacking a little. Horror, would you elaborate?

My list, as of now, has Pops on top, Excedrin tied with KageLord, and Horror next.

so I'm putting him as neutral.

The stats (majority: minority):

Exilon: 6:0
skerterg: 4:2
Excedrin (absent for day 1): 2:3
KageLord /kelikar: 3:2
Damien/RS (lurker): 4:0
(horror is 4:1)

Some errors in this study:
1. Exilon vs. Excedrin isn't that good an example.
2. Several undercurrents are not represented; this is a very superficial view.
3. People who are accused more often naturally have a higher minority, since they defend themselves.

However, I think Exilon's 6:0 stands out quite a bit. Red Star also stands out, based purely on the data.

And what's the issue here? Is it me not starting enough cases (which doesn't really make me scum - Excedrin also pointed that out Day 2), or just being everywhere "town is"? Either way I'd like to know how that makes me scum.

No, not starting cases isn't an accusation of you, it's a defense of horror, who did start a lot of cases. And like I said, whether this is a good test or not is up for debate; I'm just presenting it as more evidence.

It is a town tell for him to "initiate" something based on little stuff? Interesting of you to say that after he's dead while also adding "I guess".

Yes, it is a town tell for him, apparently. I know now because I know his role; thus, I have more meta information. I think the only one I looked at before of his previous games was when he was mafia. I usually think reaching for cases is scummy, too, but apparently not with horror. That's why I was accusing him previously. "I guess" is how I write, I guess.

And he posted his case (which was very elaborate) and attack on Razorback waaay before I did.

Precisely. Slip-up?

Yes, and Horror was also the one who attacked him first, or Fos'd him. /sarcasm. You're the one who's misrepping. And it wasn't questionable, later on I showed how Excedrin had some blatant misreps in his posts.

How am I misrepping. Horror did vote for him first. Your suspicion of Excedrin seems only to come from the fact that he was attacking you. As I stated before, I didn't feel that Excedrin was misrepping, definitely not intentionally; it was just debate to clarify meaning of writing and intentions.

I vote on PS349, to apply pressure because Pops behaviour was consitent with him being scum with Razorback . Where was your case then? Before or after the Excedrin vs Exilon? Good to see the IIRC there, it's always a nice excuse to misrep stuff while still looking town. Does this also make me scummier than Horror, which is what you are trying to prove?

Good point, I won't write IIRC in future games. 80% of the time I write it I usually check anyway. In this game, my posts 333 and 336 basically state that we should examine pops more in depth and provides reasons why. In these two posts were all the reasons for my suspicion of pops. Also in 333 is my scumlist with pops at top. horror never really had an opinion (which is scummy); however I think you two are tied here.

Oh yeah, he INITIATED a lot, which is what you are trying to show.

Clarify?

"I have this other case / cases about him in case this one fails, just so you know. Reason I don't post it is 1: I want to make it look like it's significant when it is not, or 2) I'm lying, or 3) I recall some stuff which I can use but I have to go seasch for it and don't want to "waste" time."

Um, by other stuff I mean my whole case against you--which I've already posted. This includes coaching razorback and defending him while still making it seem like he was your top suspect. Also, the night kill speculation. I've stated these already.

---

Note that skerterg's post above confirmed that he thought I was cop. All of his role speculation and that he thought I was cop seems very scummy to me. Scum hunts power roles, town hunts scum.

Yes, I did wonder if you were the cop. However, it is the town's duty to try and find out the power roles also, to find people who you believe are townies and who you can trust. If I have made a mistake, it was not in hunting power roles but rather in voicing my thoughts. I'm sure that you too were perhaps looking for clues/breadcrumbs of player roles, and I'm sure you would do that in a non-newbie game where there are many other possible roles.

Also, I never thought horror was cop. My suspicions moved from KageLord because my primary case depended on kelikar. KageLord himself hasn't done much to arouse my suspicion, except for that post where he defended himself unnecessarily. I only lessened my suspicion of pops because you were so against it. Since I have a town read on you, I valued your opinion and your defense of him. Also, why in the world would I shift my suspicion if I were scum and you had a town read? If anything, I would want to continue trying to lynch that person, as it would deprive the cop of valuable information. You really think I wouldn't push for a lynch just because you are defending that person? I think in a skerterg vs. Excedrin matchup, it would be pretty even.

Nobody else even considered that Red Star was town and fake claiming. This really looks like scum perspective thinking.

How so? I try my best to consider everything, always.

And the questions to anyone not named Exilon were not meant to be good ones. I didn't really care about the answers. They were only there to divert Exilon's suspicions.

A few mistakes with your reasoning: if I were scum RB then I would RB you if I thought you were cop. Then you would not have results on both pops and KageLord. Also, if I'm RB then I would know that if there is a doctor then there must be a cop. There has been no cop claim. However...

Now my suspicions about the game have changed. If Excedrin was aware that I was trying to find out if he was cop, then he would have written his response with the intent of deceit. You claim you are townie: does cop fall under that category? It is conspicuous because Exilon, KageLord, and I all specifically said "vanilla townie." I suspect he has been saving this to put the nail in the coffin and lynch me (e.g. I say "But I can't be the RB! There's a doc claim and no cop claim!" "Bam.")

I'm saying this myself since I doubt anyone else would consider this and point this out.

So many possibilities, so many ways for the game to go. Before the day ends, I'll post an analysis of how I feel the game should go out.

On a different note, Damien will be gone until the eighteenth. That is past the deadline.

TO KITTYMO: Can we have an extension so that damien can come back and have time to read and vote?

[skerterg]

Errr...while writing the second part, I forgot to come back and finish writing exactly why the razorback case was the most interesting. This should be fairly obvious; basically Exilon never voted. No one seems to mention his statement that he was "ready to vote." He never mentions who, and if need be I suspect he could have changed to Red Star at L-1 and say that "his statement was directed against Red Star" since Exilon did post a lot that indicated he was suspicious of Red Star. There's a bit of other stuff that I could include but it's late, and I'll do it upon request.

[Exilon]

Sorry for my language; I'll be forceful if you want. You are ALWAYS on the side which the majority of the town is on, except for possibly one instance. (This is what I meant when I said usually).

Now THAT'S BETTER and gets your point across.

There is no one else like this. I don't know who you are implying. If it's horror, then I addressed it. If it's me, then you are totally not getting it:

Of course I'm not getting it. This is what you actually said, and which is different from what you initially said:

I think Exilon was

present in each one of these [instances] except for maybe the last one. I don't see anyone else like that.

I can be blamed for not getting the point, but only when the person has clearly expressed him/herself. In this case, not really.

Now I can finally see exactly what you're getting at.

And he posted his case (which was very elaborate) and attack on Razorback waaay before I did.

Precisely. Slip-up?

Hum, no. I was being sarcastic. I was the one who actually did post an elaborate case and attacked Razorback before Horror.

Also, out of context / selective quoting. Nice.

How am I misrepping. Horror did vote for him first. Your suspicion of Excedrin seems only to come from the fact that he was attacking you. As I stated before, I didn't feel that Excedrin was misrepping, definitely not intentionally; it was just debate to clarify meaning of writing and intentions.

I Fos'd him before Horror voted him. I would hope that counted for anything, even more because my suspicions were properly voiced. Although, you seem to be casting away my suspicions as invalid because Excedrin was attacking me. Not really the case - what I found scummy was the way he attacked me, there's a difference. Besides, Excedrin didn't have any other contribution to the game to analyze.

Oh yeah, he INITIATED a lot, which is what you are trying to show.

Clarify?

I'm being sarcastic again. Also, again out-of-context. I believe this quote was about Kagelord's case? Basically, I was commenting on the fact from your slew of cases that Horror didn't actually initiate THAT much, and when he did, it didn't really have much evidence. sure, starting cases off of nothing is great for presure, but it's usually more effective to do so with evidence.

Good point, I won't write IIRC in future games. 80% of the time I write it I usually check anyway. In this game, my posts 333 and 336 basically state that we should examine pops more in depth and provides reasons why. In these two posts were all the reasons for my suspicion of pops. Also in 333 is my scumlist with pops at top. horror never really had an opinion (which is scummy); however I think you two are tied here.

IIRC can be a little bad to use, yeah.

Your posts 333 and 336? Good lord, you're talking you're the one who defines the general "town feeling". That supposedly makes my vote on 349 based mainly on Pop's actions from

two or three posts before

placed after your case on Pops scummy?

Let me get this straight: your so-called "case", which wasn't really a case so-to-speak, placed before my argument with Excedrin, is a valid reason for my vote as scum siding with town, even though the reasoning wasn't the same?

Sorry, that does not make sense.

Um, by other stuff I mean my whole case against you--which I've already posted. This includes coaching razorback and defending him while still making it seem like he was your top suspect. Also, the night kill speculation. I've stated these already.

To which I've answered already. So there's really nothing new there.

Errr...while writing the second part, I forgot to come back and finish writing exactly why the razorback case was the most interesting. This should be fairly obvious; basically Exilon never voted. No one seems to mention his statement that he was "ready to vote." He never mentions who, and if need be I suspect he could have changed to Red Star at L-1 and say that "his statement was directed against Red Star" since Exilon did post a lot that indicated he was suspicious of Red Star. There's a bit of other stuff that I could include but it's late, and I'll do it upon request.

Hum... I said "I'm ready to vote" after something Razorback said, I believe. (It was for the dramatic effect, I know, stupid imagination ^^; ) I thought it was pretty obvious I was talking about Razorback. Even if it isn't obvious, rest assured I was indeed talking about Razorback. My suspicion was much stronger on him than Red Star.

[Excedrin]

Deadline is coming up soon and again there's no consensus.

Damien777, I know you're V/LA, but you're also not voting. If you read this, please vote for your top suspect. Also answering Exilon's question, re: "a good response drops his scum level to 2?" or whatever (paraphrased), would be good, you seem to have no conviction.

KageLord, who is scum? You're not voting, why?

Exilon who's your 2nd choice if (since) you're wrong about me? I ask this because, despite being tired of this game, I'm not going to selfvote, therefore if we're* going to lynch someone, you need to compromise (or reevaluate, or whatever). On the other hand, if you can convince 2 others that I'm scum, that's fine, at least it won't be a mislynch in the final 3.

skerterg, I realize that some of my case against you assumes there's a scum roleblocker, but why haven't you commented on it? I think that Damien777 and I bring up a few good points even if you're not roleblocker. If we're both wrong, then why all the focus on roles? Do you really still think Exilon is scum?

*I mean "we" here as in "you and I"

[Exilon]

Exilon who's your 2nd choice if (since) you're wrong about me? I ask this because, despite being tired of this game, I'm not going to selfvote, therefore if we're* going to lynch someone, you need to compromise (or reevaluate, or whatever). On the other hand, if you can convince 2 others that I'm scum, that's fine, at least it won't be a mislynch in the final 3.

I don't know if people will feel inclined to vote you at this point. I have the general ideas of my case on you but I don't believe they can be strong enough to get any of the other three players to vote, specially because of the current discussion Anyway, the case is basically a summed up and reviewed version of what I've been calling you for so far, so there isn't really new stuff. Furthermore, your recent posting has dropped you a little on my suspicion list (this can also be due to Skerterg raising a little as well, but you're practically tied).

Right now? I REALLY need to reevaluate because I'm afraid Kagelord-scum is using this whole discussion as a way to stay in the shadows. In fact, I want more posting from him, so I'm going to ask

Kagelord, top suspects, and why? Who should be lynched today, and why?

.

At least Damien is town on my eyes, but that only clears one person.
So, in the end, and since you and Skert are my top suspects, if the need arises, I'd be willing to switch my vote to Skerterg.

[KittyMo]

On a different note, Damien will be gone until the eighteenth. That is past the deadline.

TO KITTYMO: Can we have an extension so that damien can come back and have time to read and vote?

Nope. The deadline is fixed and will only change in extreme circumstances. If you'd like me to replace him (possibly temporarily), that can be arranged instead.

[KageLord]

Okay, since I've been asked for my opinions...

Honestly, even though this may seem scummy, I really don't have strong feelings against any one person. The only person I did have strong suspicions about (that hasn't already died) was Red Star and Damien777 cleared away about half of that in his early posts. So, here are my thoughts on each person:

skerterg: I had said before, quite a long time ago, how screwed we might be if skerterg turned out to be scum. Back then, it was mostly a joke, with only a hint of real suspicion. After Damien's case against him, which contained a couple of the things I was worrying about, I became truly suspicious of him. But not to the extent of possibly voting for him. His defense, after all, has been quite solid. I just keep having the nagging worry that he is just being brilliant scum and we are being blinded. This is nothing solid, so for now, I wouldn't act on it without further reason to.

Damien777: He replaced in for Red Star, so naturally, my suspicions from Red Star would carry over to him. When he entered, he was in the spot of my prime suspect. However, since his first few posts, he has cleared up many of the doubts I had about Red Star. But there are some suspicions that he really can't remove (such as the 'Doctor Diaries' thing or some of Red Star's later actions). He has come out strong, so either he is truly the doctor and he is trying to help town or, again, he could be scum continuing Red Star's doctor fake-claim and trying to move suspicion onto anyone else (ideally skerterg, our top scumhunter).

Exilon: Honestly, the only suspicions I had about him were brought up by Excedrin and skerterg (along with some new ones) and his defense has either removed those suspicions or confused me so much that I don't really understand his point or skerterg's anymore. Actually, at this point, I think I probably suspect him the least.

Excedrin: Now, Excedrin... he actually used to be the one I suspected the second most, but his recent attitude has put him squarely in third place on the scum list for me. The main reason I still suspect him more than Exilon is again the possibility that he 'suspects' skerterg just to get rid of the top scumhunter. I believe this to be a low possibility (which is why he's not tied for the lead), but still something worth keeping in mind.

So, my scumlist would look like this:

Damien777 and skerterg tied
Excedrin
Exilon

If forced to choose between Damien and skert... I guess I would lean toward Damien. But he isn't here right now and I think I would still hold off on my vote for a bit longer regardless. I want to just see what people will do a bit closer to the deadline.

[KageLord]

P.S. I do intend to vote on Saturday and check in for the last time (meaning I will be checking in between when I vote and this time as well) late on Sunday night.

[skerterg]

Alright, thanks Kitty. I don't know about everyone else, but I would like someone to step in just for a bit, if only to vote.

To Exilon: Sarcasm is quite difficult to detect over the internet. Usually I think I'm pretty good, but not here apparently. I didn't mean to take them out of context, if that's what you're saying; I didn't feel there was that much context around them.

My posts 333 and 336 did summarize basically all my case against him, at least what I thought important. There was also Red Star who voted for pops. Overall, I'd imagine it wouldn't be too hard to get pops lynched, since he was pretty shady and people already were accusing him.

To which I've answered already. So there's really nothing new there.

Right. I'm just clarifying what I meant; apparently you thought that I had this case that I wasn't posting.

To Excedrin: I thought I already addressed your main points (and damien's). Could you just give a list of points for me to answer? Thanks.

So, I'm still for Exilon lynch. KageLord did a nice piece showing his views on each person, so I'll do the same.

Damien: I think he's doctor. There would have been no need for Red Star to fakeclaim, since one mafia would die anyway. Several people stated that they believed that such a scum pair was not possible. Basically, all the stuff I said before.

Excedrin: He is either townie or cop; I'll believe either one. Though I don't think he really has a case grounded in evidence on me, just posting his thoughts the way he did is a town tell, in my opinion.

KageLord: Not too much to say. I saw some scummy elements in kelikar, but KageLord himself hasn't aroused by suspicion that much, especially in recent times. I get a town vibe. But I perhaps would still have to look at motives, etc.

Exilon: Therefore, by process of elimination, we arrive at Exilon. I think he is the remaining mafia. There have been other scum indications which I have been talking about all along; just read back through this day.


Sorry, KageLord, but I have to bring this up:

skerterg: I had said before, quite a long time ago, how screwed we might be if skerterg turned out to be scum. Back then, it was mostly a joke, with only a hint of real suspicion. After Damien's case against him, which contained a couple of the things I was worrying about, I became truly suspicious of him. But not to the extent of possibly voting for him. His defense, after all, has been quite solid. I just keep having the nagging worry that he is just being brilliant scum and we are being blinded. This is nothing solid, so for now, I wouldn't act on it without further reason to.

So you think my defense was solid yet you still think I am one of the scummiest? From what you wrote, I can conclude that you are suspicious of me only because you are scared that I am so brilliant that I've been deceiving you all this game. I'm not opposed to constantly questioning your beliefs, aka "anti-anti-suspicion" (you aren't suspicious of me, and then are questioning that)--in fact, I encourage it--but when it actually comes to vote, you have to look at the evidence. I don't think voting someone just because of the reason you stated is good. For me, I am terrified that Excedrin is the remaining scum. (Not so much damien/Red Star, because then I feel it's more luck/lurk--depends on which of the three possibilies I stated earlier in post 53 in my ISO). Yet I do not vote for him.

Excedrin may be doing a bit of the same, though he does offer a lot more analysis into motives, etc. Damien did a good job posting evidence.

Here's the list:

---Scummiest---

Exilon
KageLord
Excedrin
Damien777

---Cleanest---

Exilon is at the top of the list. I am very unwilling to compromise; however, if it is

absolutely

necessary the only other person I would go for would be KageLord.

[KageLord]

Damien: I think he's doctor. There would have been no need for Red Star to fakeclaim, since one mafia would die anyway. Several people stated that they believed that such a scum pair was not possible. Basically, all the stuff I said before.

Well, that reason may seem perfectly logical if this was a normal game, but in a newbie game... I'm not so sure. The big reason I would see for Red Star to fakeclaim, even if he believed that one scum would get lynched either way, would be that he wanted razor to be that scum. As you mentioned, since people had said how that team would be almost impossible, by making it razor that got lynched, he would theoretically be safer. Now, this may sound like him just being selfish, but it wouldn't really be that. It would probably be more like he thought that razor would (based on his previous play) screw it up and get caught. After all, if you were Red Star and you had to pick which scum would live between yourself and razor... who would you pick?

KageLord: Not too much to say. I saw some scummy elements in kelikar, but KageLord himself hasn't aroused by suspicion that much, especially in recent times. I get a town vibe. But I perhaps would still have to look at motives, etc.

Sorry, KageLord, but I have to bring this up:

skerterg: I had said before, quite a long time ago, how screwed we might be if skerterg turned out to be scum. Back then, it was mostly a joke, with only a hint of real suspicion. After Damien's case against him, which contained a couple of the things I was worrying about, I became truly suspicious of him. But not to the extent of possibly voting for him. His defense, after all, has been quite solid. I just keep having the nagging worry that he is just being brilliant scum and we are being blinded. This is nothing solid, so for now, I wouldn't act on it without further reason to.

So you think my defense was solid yet you still think I am one of the scummiest? From what you wrote, I can conclude that you are suspicious of me only because you are scared that I am so brilliant that I've been deceiving you all this game. I'm not opposed to constantly questioning your beliefs, aka "anti-anti-suspicion" (you aren't suspicious of me, and then are questioning that)--in fact, I encourage it--but when it actually comes to vote, you have to look at the evidence. I don't think voting someone just because of the reason you stated is good. For me, I am terrified that Excedrin is the remaining scum. (Not so much damien/Red Star, because then I feel it's more luck/lurk--depends on which of the three possibilies I stated earlier in post 53 in my ISO). Yet I do not vote for him.

I can see how you would get that from my post, but that's not what I meant to imply. It is something more like, "If Exilon has 3% suspicion, Excedrin has 5% suspicion, and skerterg and Damien have 7% suspicion, skerterg and Damien appear to be the scummiest." Now, obviously those percents aren't true to what I believe, but it's that general idea.

To tell the truth though, I didn't intend to vote for skerterg, if push came to shove.

[Excedrin]

Note that skerterg's post above confirmed that he thought I was cop. All of his role speculation and that he thought I was cop seems very scummy to me. Scum hunts power roles, town hunts scum.

Yes, I did wonder if you were the cop. However, it is the town's duty to try and find out the power roles also, to find people who you believe are townies and who you can trust. If I have made a mistake, it was not in hunting power roles but rather in voicing my thoughts. I'm sure that you too were perhaps looking for clues/breadcrumbs of player roles, and I'm sure you would do that in a non-newbie game where there are many other possible roles.

Yea, this is a fair point.

Also, I never thought horror was cop. My suspicions moved from KageLord because my primary case depended on kelikar. KageLord himself hasn't done much to arouse my suspicion, except for that post where he defended himself unnecessarily. I only lessened my suspicion of pops because you were so against it. Since I have a town read on you, I valued your opinion and your defense of him. Also, why in the world would I shift my suspicion if I were scum and you had a town read? If anything, I would want to continue trying to lynch that person, as it would deprive the cop of valuable information. You really think I wouldn't push for a lynch just because you are defending that person? I think in a skerterg vs. Excedrin matchup, it would be pretty even.

This is also reasonable. I disagree with the WIFOM about what you'd do if you're scum, maybe you wouldn't, but again, it's WIFOM. But, it's still scummy, I think that many scum would drop a case against a suspect based on a player they think is cop defending that suspect.

Nobody else even considered that Red Star was town and fake claiming. This really looks like scum perspective thinking.

How so? I try my best to consider everything, always.

Because, town doesn't lie. When I know someone is town (either because they're dead, or I'm (sane) cop or mason or I'm scum), I never consider lying town. Occasionally that results in catching scum. Everything fits very nicely if Red Star lied about being doctor.

A few mistakes with your reasoning: if I were scum RB then I would RB you if I thought you were cop. Then you would not have results on both pops and KageLord. Also, if I'm RB then I would know that if there is a doctor then there must be a cop. There has been no cop claim. However...

That isn't a mistake if Red Star lied about being doctor, it is if Damien777 lied about not being doctor. Either way, Damien777's play has really screwed me up.

Now my suspicions about the game have changed. If Excedrin was aware that I was trying to find out if he was cop, then he would have written his response with the intent of deceit. You claim you are townie: does cop fall under that category? It is conspicuous because Exilon, KageLord, and I all specifically said "vanilla townie."

townie vs VT is a good catch, my mistake. I am vanilla townie. Too much IRC mafia. If I was cop, I would have claimed cop and included investigation targets and any results. So, no "townie" in my mind is a role, not an alignment.

I suspect he has been saving this to put the nail in the coffin and lynch me (e.g. I say "But I can't be the RB! There's a doc claim and no cop claim!" "Bam.")

... This doesn't make sense. As any role in the game you'd deny being RB. I don't see how denying being RB results in a particularly strong point to get someone lynched. And again, see Damien777's lie to see why it makes sense.

Most of my thoughts in that post really make sense only if Red Star is actually a Vanilla Townie and not Doctor. If he is Doctor:

skerterg has stopped pushing for lynches of players that I didn't think were town, which can be a scum or town behavior. It seems more likely to come from scum because town perspective tends to be more inclined to push harder, try to find stronger evidence or a better argument*. The, "No, really, he's scum, why won't you vote him!" kind of thing. Along those lines, town should be concerned that the player expressing the town read is actually scum, attempting to blend in. However, in this game, thinking that Excedrin is scum for defending popsofctown probably wasn't considered because it's known that there's only one scum alive, so I couldn't be defending my scumbuddy etc.

*It's a conviction issue, similar to Damien777's 180 re: skerterg scum.

There's some other behavior that I need to look at but I'm out of time. I also need to think thru whether anyone else had a particularly scummy reaction to Damien777.

If I assume skerterg is town, then KageLord and Exilon are kinda similar, neither of them is very proactive. KageLord still hasn't voted. That said, I agree with KageLord about Red Star / Damien777 suspicion. I'd also like to lynch Damien777 to find out for sure what his role is. Exilon is weird, but I think he's just weird, not scum.

I think that I read Damien777's revelation the same way KageLord did, as in, "oh, doc diaries was intended to support a (town) fake claim." It kinda makes sense. But since he's admitted his lie, everything's unclear again.

Finally, I don't see how we can consider having someone else replace Damien777 temporarily. They'd be able to claim his role and it'd further confuse things.

So, I'm willing to lynch Damien777, skerterg or KageLord, and I'd vote Exilon to avoid nolynch. I guess that really narrows it down.

It looks like
Exilon - Excedrin, skerterg
KageLord - Damien777, skerterg, Excedrin
skerterg - Exilon, KageLord
Damien777 - KageLord? (unclear)
Excedrin - skerterg, Damien777, KageLord

So, it looks like we can't get an Exilon lynch. Options are either skerterg or KageLord (but, only if Damien777 votes and I compromise, or if Exilon will vote KageLord).

[skerterg]

Look, here is my case against Exilon summarized:

1. There are situations of teaching razorback.
2. He never full-heartedly went against razorback; in fact, many times when he said that he thought razorback was scum he defended him and attacked Red Star. This is probably the biggest scum-tell.
3. He was also silent during the portion where razorback went from L-4 to L-1.
4. He has gone a lot with the town popular beliefs, more than anyone else except possibly horror.
5. The deaths of Leafsnail and horror make sense.

Is there anyone else who you can build a bigger/better case against? I challenge you to.

Now, I address all those who suspect me:

Exilon: Why exactly do you suspect me? What I have done to arouse your suspicion? Or will you only lynch me just to lynch someone, and not because you suspect me?

KageLord: Same question: why do you suspect me? Or would you only vote for me to lynch someone?

If the answer for both of you is that you are only voting so that someone is lynched and so that there is no no-lynch, then why kill me? Is there any particular reason to pick me? Am I not helping the town, or what?

Excedrin: I answered your points as best as I could. However, your idea is flawed. First, it relies on Red Star fake-claiming, which even you said is unlikely ("town doesn't lie"). And all the times I was talking about power roles/town setup, it was only because those were my actual thoughts about the game. In newbie games, there are only 4 possibilities, so usually the mafia have a much bigger head start than town. In this case, Red Star claimed doctor, so assuming it was true the mafia would know what the setup is. By speculating on it, we are only equalizing information. We can talk endgame about what proper behavior should be.

skerterg has stopped pushing for lynches of players that I didn't think were town, which can be a scum or town behavior. It seems more likely to come from scum because town perspective tends to be more inclined to push harder, try to find stronger evidence or a better argument*.

But where's the line to close-mindedness? I try to be open-minded. KageLord's response was pretty good I thought, which worked in his favor. And when I do write my cases, don't I try pretty hard, at least harder than most others? I've worked really hard looking at Exilon, and this was before you stated what you did, so you know I didn't do it because you said that trying hard = town.

Defense of Excedrin and Damien:

Now, Excedrin posted a very analytical post. It is essentially a town-tell: I can just imagine you after Damien said Red Star fakeclaimed.

"Alright, so I believe damien, that means he's townie, and I'm townie, so there are no power roles, so that means there is a roleblocker! And didn't skerterg mention that Red Star might be fakeclaiming? And he was trying to find the cop and such! Oh, post time!"

Also, Excedrin has done a lot of pro-town things. This includes pressuring horror, pondering hard about Damien's claim and writing his suspicions, and a lot of scumhunting in general (e.g. against Exilon). So, I don't think Excedrin is mafia. His response to Damien's claim supports the hypothesis that he is town.

My only regret is that I didn't pressure him earlier to get a reaction.

If Damien/RS is scum, then they have some nerve to do what they did. Winding the town up with their arguments with a totally illogical claim at the end (if they both are scum). That is all. (Well, not really. I already mentioned how interaction between razorback and Red Star supports the idea that razorback=scum implies Red Star=town, and hopefully he didn't fakeclaim. But you already know this. His attempt to get reactions also makes me think he is town with his claim as VT.)

Damien, Excedrin, the only ones who should be considered for lynch are Exilon and KageLord.

I ask Damien and especially KageLord: can you be more specific in stating what points Exilon made that were good and/or what arguments I made that were bad/irrelevant? I think Excedrin already did this. To him I ask: what do you think about Exilon going around with majority town opinion? And don't you think that during day 1, Exilon was trying really hard to look like he was for razorback lynch yet still directing attention to Red Star? Also, I'm confused that out of the three people you picked, Exilon is not among them. Does that mean you think he is town? You say he is "weird, not scum." Well, why is he weird and not scum? And why go for KageLord but not Exilon?

To KageLord: if you don't understand any part of my case against Exilon, then just ask me to clarify. (Or him, or both, to see both sides). Also, side question: when did you ever suspect Excedrin second most?

To summarize: LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE! If you are in favor of voting someone, then at least there should be something specific that caught your suspicion. Damien, Excedrin, and I all posted decent cases. Exilon has been mostly defending. And KageLord has not reached a decision. But, if that's the case, don't lynch the persons who are doing the most for town (unless you have a case).

[KittyMo]

Vote Count XXXV

[1] Exilon - (skerterg)

[1] Excedrin - (Exilon)
[1] skerterg - (Excedrin)

[0] KageLord - ()
[0] Red Star - ()

[3]

Not Voting

- (Damien777, KageLord)

With

5

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, June 14, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

[KageLord]

KageLord: Same question: why do you suspect me? Or would you only vote for me to lynch someone?

If the answer for both of you is that you are only voting so that someone is lynched and so that there is no no-lynch, then why kill me? Is there any particular reason to pick me? Am I not helping the town, or what?

I'll look over the whole skerterg-Exilon argument again and ask questions before voting, to be sure. Just gonna head off to bed now. And as I said before, the reason I'm not voting is because a) I don't have strong convictions right now and b) I am still waiting to see the different arguments as deadline approaches.

But, just thought I'd comment about this part now... am I missing something or isn't it still impossible for there to be a no-lynch? Didn't we already find out that if the majority's not reached and it's a tie, the person who got voted earliest is lynched? Wasn't that what happened yesterday?

[Excedrin]

That's a pretty good post skerterg.

KageLord:

Honestly

, I enjoy his posts. They are pretty good/constructive, and his defense raised some good points. He mentions his suspicions and reasonings (and is not as jumpy/reactive as horror). If I didn't think he was scum, I would want him alive.

Replace KageLord with skerterg and this post sums up my feeling. Also, saying "honestly" is scummy. You mean you're not being honest the rest of the time?

Is there anyone else who you can build a bigger/better case against? I challenge you to.

Aite, here goes.

When I defended KageLord and pointed out flaws in your case against him, I said at the time that he could still be scum, but for different reasons. Part of my reasoning behind thinking you're scum is along those lines (considering uncertainity re: Damien777's shenanigans).

Aside from my criticism of your case on KageLord, were there other reasons that you decided to focus on KageLord less and Exilon more?

On day 2, you posted:

With nowhere better to go, let's see what he flips as

and what the situation will be in day 3.

Looks like you were certain that popsofctown was town (there would be a day 3).

Something else I noticed:

On day 1 (almost entirely on
page 8), here's how votes looked up to post 177:

popsofctown (1): horrordude0215
razorback (1): Red Star
Leafsnail (2): Leafsnail, popsofctown

not voting: Exilon, kelikar, razorback, skerterg, Excedrin

#177 Leafsnail votes razorback.

popsofctown (1): horrordude0215
razorback (2): Red Star, Leafsnail
Red Star (1): popsofctown

not voting: Exilon, kelikar, razorback, skerterg, Excedrin

#181 kelikar votes razorback.

popsofctown (1): horrordude0215
razorback (3): Red Star, Leafsnail, kelikar
Red Star (1): popsofctown

not voting: Exilon, razorback, skerterg, Excedrin

#191 horrordude0215 votes razorback.

razorback (4): Red Star, Leafsnail, kelikar, horrordude0215
Red Star (1): popsofctown

not voting: Exilon, razorback, skerterg, Excedrin

#208 skerterg votes horrordude0123.

razorback (3): Leafsnail, kelikar, horrordude0215
Red Star (1): popsofctown
horrordude0215 (1): skerterg

not voting: Exilon, razorback, Red Star, Excedrin

So, a wagon formed on scum and skerterg appeared to try to derail it.

Post #208 is an example of chainsaw defense, you're directly attacking the wagon on scum. Post #199 also slightly attacked horrordude0215 for putting razorback at L-1. There's also a lot of contrast between post #208 and #146 where you thought horrordude0215 was most likely town after Exilon. You were suspicious of kelikar in #146, but you voted for horrordude0690 instead. Also, in post #208, you list some possible scumteams, and none of them include razorback.

The paragraph starting:

That leaves two I want to focus on: kelikar and horrordude0215.

is weird, it looks like it's building a case for a kelikar vote, then you suddenly vote horrordude0215.

---

Defense of Exilon, there's 3 dead town (Leafsnail, horrordude0215 and popsofctown) who posted "Exilon is town." #343 #359 #177
These Points:

1. There are situations of teaching razorback.
2. He never full-heartedly went against razorback

Both apply equally to you.

Example:

To razorback: a small point. You state that "because i always fuck thing's up so i have come with a simple stya alive as long as i can." It is not the goal of the townsperson to stay alive; it is to catch the mafia. (Well, maybe it is for the doctor, but anyways.) It is the goal of the mafia to stay alive until the end, until they outnumber the townspeople. Please keep this in mind, as you should be working on catching scum first, and self-preservation second.

3. He was also silent during the portion where razorback went from L-4 to L-1.

That's less scummy than suddenly "waking up" and voting for someone on the wagon, while trying to shift suspicion to everyone on the wagon.

4. He has gone a lot with the town popular beliefs, more than anyone else except possibly horror.

This is basically the best point in your case. I mean, you've kinda "proven" it. But how is this behavior something that's more likely to come from scum than town? It's a weak alignment indicator.

5. The deaths of Leafsnail and horror make sense.

Pay special attention to #177 by Leafsnail. It notes scumminess in skerterg's posts #67, #81, #146 and says:

sketerg and popsofctown both have scummy elements.

Sketerg seems overeager to pardon razorback

, and popsofctown seemed to quick to advocate a policylynch on my playerslot.

This explains Leafsnail's death.

---

I know this is a long post. Even if you skim, please go back and read page 8

Another point relates to razorback. This is probably a fault or weakness of mine, but I cannot get a grasp of his style at all. I cannot tell the difference between when he is mafia and when he is townie. Maybe I have a weakness for poor grammar or spelling, so I try to convince myself that he is NOT mafia even though I dislike his posts. (On the flip side, maybe I'm a sucker for grammatically good and well-reasoned posts, blinding me to mafia.) I just try to give both sides some thought.

Have you analyzed the meta in as much depth as

anyone

else? Why did you feel the need to defend razorback based on his meta? Yes, he was incoherent. Town has a mislynch, lynching an incoherent/unreadable player makes perfect sense.

Regarding Exilon: Most of what I did was just to get a response from him. I liked it a lot, and therefore he has gained my trust. I thought it was well-reasoned. If he is mafia, then he has me well fooled. I must say, Exilon, we think quite alike. Too alike. Maybe I should be wary of my trust

[Excedrin]

EBWOP: Have you analyzed anyone else's meta in as much depth?

Also, the last quote is buddying.

[skerterg]

Glad you met the challenge, Excedrin.

Also, saying "honestly" is scummy. You mean you're not being honest the rest of the time?

I mean "for real." It would seem surprising that I enjoy his posts considering that I think is scum. I guess I could have used a better word like "unexpectedly" or something.

Aside from my criticism of your case on KageLord, were there other reasons that you decided to focus on KageLord less and Exilon more?

Yea, I said that his posts gave me a town vibe. Specifically, he has been receptive to ideas but not flippy-floppy. He also felt free to talk about issues. But your post addressing flaws in my case did change my mind a bit.

Looks like you were certain that popsofctown was town (there would be a day 3).

If he were scum there would be no day 3. It should be obvious that I meant "assuming there is a day 3." You can see this as a slip if you want, but horror saw ahoda's "slip." Also, I recall when Red Star at the end of day 1 stated that he would "post tomorrow," with the assumption that he will be alive, and yet I think he's townie (doctor) now.

You do mention one good point: the chainsaw defense. Looking back, I can easily see how I could be seen as guilty. What I say now is what I said before: razorback was a very easy target to get a lynch against and so I wanted to look at intensely those who were voting for him. Also, my reply to the changing of positions in the list is that new and interesting ideas strike me quickly. You can see this with my case against KageLord and then Exilon. Also, in the post where I vote horror I specifically give my case against him. You can see in the list that kelikar is actually below horror. How does it look like I'm building a case for kelikar? Is it only because I wrote about him first? I wrote about him first to get that out of the way so I could focus the majority of my post on horror.

Just look at the votes. We have razorback at L-4. Then, Leafsnail votes. Then kelikar. Then horrordude. No other votes are in between. This is certainly suspicious enough to warrant a look at, which is basically what I did. There is a reason I wrote the title as "Who's Unobvious?"

And I fail how to see that neglecting to put razorback on a scumteam is scummy. I would think that scum would put him there just for the sake of putting him there so that he would indicate suspicion (like Exilon did).

You notice that razorback actually goes

down

in my lists the closer it got to the day's end. So, I became more supportive of razorback. Exilon didn't; he was much more wavering. Apologies if I'm not clear about #2: my point was that he never went "full-heartedly against razorback or for razorback." As more my teaching...yes, I see evidence that I did. I still say Exilon did more, and so they don't apply "equally." Maybe later I'll count the instances I see and post them when I have some more time that's not so late as it is now.

That's less scummy than suddenly "waking up" and voting for someone on the wagon, while trying to shift suspicion to everyone on the wagon.

What do you mean? If you're talking about me, I didn't vote for anyone on the wagon. I guess you could say I was trying to shift suspicion from the wagon. But if anyone "woke up" and jumped on a wagon, it was Exilon.

Yes, the Leafsnail quote was common knowledge and pretty obvious, I thought. It's true: I can't say anything about that, except that Leafsnail was wrong. I think the main scummy thing he pointed out was that I accused Exilon and backed off real quick. This was my first attempt at "pressuring" someone, and I guess it went poorly since Leafsnail viewed it as scummy. Damien raised this point also about my defense of razorback, and if you want you can read my reply. Summary: since it is more likely that razorback is town than scum (7:2 odds) I wanted to consider that he is town and look from there, since scum would push for mislynch (since it's pretty easy and there are lots of others who would be favor of it, thus blending in).

Well, to be honest there isn't that much meta for razorback. He usually isn't alive that long and they are all the same kind of stuff. But yea, I looked at his meta pretty in depth. I've also analyzed your meta quite a bit, Excedrin, since I think you have the most. I think you learned a lot since your first newbie game. I particularly remember reading one game where Nikanor used meta against you in lylo. Too bad the other townie didn't follow. Here's a list of metas I've gone through:

Excedrin: the two threads that you recommended, maybe a few others.
horror: one game where he was scum (with jeromus, I think).
KageLord: that very brief segment where he replaced in.
razorback: two games; one in which he was town, the other scum.
Exilon: one game where he was town and got endgamed.

I think that's it.

Town has a mislynch, lynching an incoherent/unreadable player makes perfect sense.

Well yea, Damien mentioned this also. But lynching him is too easy, right? If town agrees to waste a lynch on a person just because he is unreadable, it's a free pass for scum, right? Basically, if we all said we supported policy lynch, then you could not accuse someone of jumping on a bandwagon, and mafia would seize this opportunity without suspicion. That's why I took the opposite view of basically everyone else.

Sorry, but can you explain buddying, exactly?

Also, you didn't really defend Exilon, you just pointed out instances where you saw just as or more scummy behavior from me.

Summary of your case (I ask for your approval):
1. Chainsaw defense in day 1 with vote on horror
2. Obvious motive in killing Leafsnail, who indicated suspicion
3. Some issues with language/writing
4. Instances of teaching razorback and defending him (linked with #1)

A lot of people have instances of teaching razorback. You too voted Red Star. I don't think #3 is really worth much. #2 might have some merit, but I talked about it further up this post. #1 is the best, and I talked about it also.

Also, mind answering these questions sometime before the day's end?

To him I ask: what do you think about Exilon going around with majority town opinion? And don't you think that during day 1, Exilon was trying really hard to look like he was for razorback lynch yet still directing attention to Red Star? Also, I'm confused that out of the three people you picked, Exilon is not among them. Does that mean you think he is town? You say he is "weird, not scum." Well, why is he weird and not scum? And why go for KageLord but not Exilon?

[skerterg]

To everyone: are we going to do anything about Damien777?

[KageLord]

Well, after looking over skert's case against Exilon and Exilon's defense again, I could not in good conscience vote for Exilon. His defense seems more than adequate to me and it seems like he has done his part in helping town in the past.

As for skerterg... he is probably the one that perplexes me the most. I keep feeling like he's scum, but I can't find any logical reason why. The only thing about what he has done that would make me think he's scum is his voting. He has voted for everyone that is still alive (equating Damien to Red Star) except Excedrin. That's not to say that he has done it baselessly, since he does have a case against each person, though some cases are worse than others. It just seems like voting for that many people with such confidence is scummy. However, something that somewhat proves to me that he's town is his confidence in Red Star. If he had wanted to, it probably wouldn't have been too hard to get a Red Star wagon going (especially since me and Excedrin had at one point expressed suspicion about him that he never cleared up), but for some reason he actually tried to dissuade us. I can't think of a reason for him to do that if he was scum (especially since if he was scum, it would almost certainly mean Red Star was actually the doctor, allowing him to kill 2 birds with 1 stone by getting him lynched). So, at least for now, that's a no on skerterg as well.

That leaves only Excedrin and Damien777 as possible voting targets for me right now. Excedrin hasn't done anything to really make me suspicious up till now and my opinions coincide with his probably more than anyone else. As for Damien... since he entered he has done a good job of looking like he's scumhunting, even affirming some of my previous doubts about skerterg (which he has cleared with his defense), but really wouldn't that just be a good strategy for scum? Clearly taking out the lead scumhunter wouldn't be a bad thing. His whole unclaim and reclaim thing didn't help either. I mean, if he was scum, that kind of move would probably have no downside. On the one hand, he could succeed in freeing himself from having to pretend to be the doctor (if no one is healed and he isn't NKed, it becomes less and less likely that he is actually the doctor). On the other, if he fails in convincing us, he could do what he actually did in this game and use those kinds of reasons for unclaiming and just accept being the doctor again.

So, by those suspicions and process of elimination...

Vote: Damien777

I'm going to have to headdesk repeatedly if he does turn out to be the doctor (whether he is lynched or not).

Btw, Kitty, assuming that Damien does have night actions, would the night deadline be after his return or...?

[Excedrin]

KageLord, what do you think about skerterg's day 1 vote for horrordude0215 after the wagon on razorback?

I wasn't in the game on day 1, neither were you, so it's useful to read page 8.

Also, why did you back off of skerterg suspicion and vote Damien777 when you've said they're both close in terms of scumminess?

You said, "... proves to me that he's town is his confidence in Red Star... I can't think of a reason for him to do that if he was scum..." But if skerterg is scum, he'd be certain that Damien777 is the doctor, given that, he doesn't want to contribute to a wagon that mislynches the only town power role.

skerterg, are you so confident that Damien777 is town that you're willing to be lynched instead of him? Before Monday at 8 AM, I will vote for Damien777 in order to prevent Exilon's lynch by a single vote.

[KittyMo]

Night will be extended accordingly for the situation.

[Exilon]

Sorry for taking a while.

By the way:

3. He was also silent during the portion where razorback went from L-4 to L-1.

Of course I was silent. I was sleeping.
How nice of you to use that as an argument that wasn't present in your other posts. (/Sarcasm)

Also, for what you said about "he said he was ready to hammer, but didn't express who":

I am willing and ready to hammer Razorback, and I think I made it clear why: it's not because of his playstyle, or that he doesn't write very well, but that he really didn't address anything of what I specifically asked him to answer (apart from one or two cases, IIRC, but even that was a little vague), and because I believed he lied.

And do you know of whom was the post preceeding that quote? Wanna take a guess?

• Exilon: Ready to vote for razorback.
  
  Exilon, before you vote for him, consider other people at first. Please give your views on them. It is easy to pick on someone who doesn't defend himself very well.

My point being: you're faulty of fabricating invalid arguments to support your case.

---

So here are the cases.

Excedrin:
- Motive to kill Horror and Leafsnail
- An instance of backpedaling
- Argumentative "flaws"

Motive of NK's:

Firstly, nightkills. I think it's been mentioned that Excedrin also had motives to kill Horror and Leafsnail.
First, he already knew Leafsnail from previous games, so he could probably believe Leafsnail would catch on to him in case he was scum. As for Horror, killing his top suspect seems like a good move to "avoid" suspicion the next day. Basics of basic here. That's why I don't think this is a viable road.

Suspicions

:
Excedrin was always very vocal about his suspicions. Day 1 he voiced some suspicion against me, Leafsnail

Excedrin vs Exilon

:
This is a very important moment and this is when I started suspecting Excedrin. Most of the time when people attack me I end up suspecting them, like someone pointed out, but the fact is that isn't exactly true. Most of the times, it's justified. As an example, I'd like to remind Day 1 when Skerterg accused me of something and then I defended myself without accusing him back or suspecting him.

I think the points that sum up what I found wrong in Excedrin's argument are all present in the discussion we had, and a quick rundown would be:
- Misrepping;
- Changing intention and meanings of questions / sentences from one post to the other, without making it clear, so as to support his argument;
-(weak point) Not answering the last post, following the new attention pursuing Pops.

Excedrin also leans a bit on Skerterg's attack on Kagelord and also picks up on Red Star's case against Horror. However, we get to know that the suspicion on Kagelord wasn't exactly "truthful".

Later, I get asked why I was placing Excedrin so high on my list. This quote still pretty much sums up my feelings on Excedrin:

- I can't precisely pinpoint it, but he has accused me of a policy lynch and that was part of the discussion. Now he's being accused of following it and he retorts with "Aside from that, as I've said, it's not policy, you're scum. If I didn't think you were scum then it would be a policy lynch.", which I don't really like as the definition of "policy lynch". Policy lynch involves, on its own, reasons to lynch someone. This sentence reads as " you can't policy lynch scum" - yet he accused me of doing it with Razorback. Doesn't read right, in my opinion. :s

- As Horror pointed as well, he seems to be contradicting himself a little - first, he thinks I'm the only one capable of being scum because everyone else as strong town post. Votes for Horror to press him, also addressing that, even if he's town, he's a "liability", so to speak. Then I'm guessing that Horror's next answer completely turns Excedrin's view around as he starts seeing Horror as scum?

- I can easily see how Excedrin would say what he has been saying as scum, a little more easily than I can see other player's posting what they've been posting. For example, it starts by attacking me, after I defend myself, since no one is voting for me he changes his focus, comments on the Pop's wagon (without jumping on the wagon), then votes Kagelord in a post that I commented about (and got no answer to, although I know now what that vote came from)... The fact that he didn't immedeitly point out flaws in a "strong-town player" can be seen as scum hoping for a safe wagon with a secondary plan in case it doesn't go through... But this end up as being quite the null-tell. Maybe with more information (aka posts) it'll be easier to see.

---

Skerterg:
- Motive to kill Horror and Leafsnail
- Cases with some "reached" arguments (exemplified by the first part of the post)
- Buddying with strong players and defending the lynchee while initiating cases against "not-so-present" players; also distancing from Razorback.

Nightkills

As stated, Leafsnail had shown suspicion of Skerterg and the doc's protection was unclear.
As for Horror, a quick ISO shows that Horror was wary / suspicious of Skerterg all through Day 1 and Day 2. (the opposite is also true). Also, he believed I was town. (I didn't go check this, so it's a IIRC here, although it doesn't matter much). Kagelord has shown suspicion of Skerterg as well Day 3, not as much as Horror though. So join that with Red Star's unclear protection and the fect that there'd be two players going for skerterg going into Day 3, and it becomes clear how Horror could be a good target for Skerterg.

Suspicions:

The most interesting and intriguing thing about Skerterg is that he never actually went after Excedrin or me, who could be seen as the other "good" players in the game. On the other hand, Skerterg appears to go after "not-so-present" players. My theory is that Skerterg tried to buddy up with "good" players (because those would be the most potential threats), while going for easier targets (preferrably "unattacked" ones, so he could be merited for being the first to do so). This can be proven by looking into interactions from early Day 1 (a great example is when Skerterg attacked me and then backed off by saying I answered pretty well; threading the waters right from Day 1)and Day 2, one of the most proeminent proofs of this being post 333, where he defends both me and Excedrin and then going after Pops.

Let's sum this up. Day 1 Skerterg essentially distances himself from Razorback, trying to defend him. On one of his posts day 2, he states that his initial plan was to keep his vote on Horror and change it at deadline to Red Star, for the sake of "voting one of the most suspicious". this is of course invalid. At the end of the day, the one with the first active vote is the one who gets lynched so there'd be no danger of this. Notice that Razorback got hammered prematurely, by Pops; which ruined the chance of Skerterg to switch his vote to Red Star, effectively lynching a townie (and if it were the doc, even better!). Also note who's the person that Skerterg goes after Day 2. Not Horror; Pops.

You know, there was something interesting which I remember to have read from Pops:

The town ought to be wary of concluding that the players who post massive posts are autotown. While such total material is correlated with a town alignment, the correlation isn't that strong. I specifically recall one game where one player posted large amounts of content, twice a day, and also broke the setup for everyone, causing one of his teammates to become lynched guaranteed, and everyone concluded he must be town and he won the game, last man standing.

On a little weaker point, there's also this:

I don't like this progression here at all. Skertberg policy votes Red Star for lurking. Another player, kelikar I think, points out that Kranix has zero activity and Red Star at least has a little, then Red Star gives excuses for his activity being low.

To which skerterg answered with this. Not a very good explanation, basically saying that Kranix wasn't voted (even though the actual fact for worry was that Kranix hadn't been addressed) because he was simply not active whilst Red Star could be pressured to post.

Anyway, both of these were posted on Day 1, both show how Pops could be wary of Skerterg. There was probably not much need to kill him Night 1 mainly because he wasn't very active and had something which could be used against him going into Day 2.

So the day basically starts with Excedrin vs Exilon, and Skerterg, when posting, actually goes after another player on post 333, Popsofctown...

A little while later, we also have this:

Two people have brought up my vote on horrordude0215 at the end of day 1. The simplest explanation is that he was the one I was most suspicious of at the time. However, I had already mentioned that since he would likely not be lynched, I would switch my vote to Red Star if necessary. By the deadline I would switch to Red Star, only for the sake of lynching someone suspicious, not the most suspicious (by my thoughts).

As of now, I am less suspicious of him,

because on further thought his vote on ahoda wasn't that suspicious.

Rather, it was the following people who voted for him who should be considered suspicious. Horrordude0215 just seemed to be looking for things to nitpick, confirmed by his vote for Excedrin.

In this same post, he also "buddies" a little with Excedrin, commenting with him about Pops. This could be seen as trying to gain his favor.

On 371, he shifts his atention again, this time to Kagelord. Justification: he "suddenly" thought of Kaglord and started to see "suspicions growing".

I planned to make it seem like I would vote for popsofctown, so that KageLord might feel inclined to vote for pops and allow me to hammer. When I said "my views suddenly change," in fact I was not referring to my views on popsofctown (which is relatively constant and backed by the majority opinion) but to my views on kelikar/KageLord. This was a target that no one else had thought of before. Could I really be correct? Was I just blinding myself? If, by the end of the night, I still felt that way, I would post. Indeed, with KageLord's vote on popsofctown I felt much confirmed and comfortable with my post.

Only scum would feel the need to "suddenly" shift a suspicion like that. For once, this avoids attention from oneself (making town have two targets), buddies with those who are supportive of him, lays some groundwork, and furthermore, if he thought Pops was the remaining scum, why would he feel the need to look up Kagelord instead? At this point, there's also Horror's attack on skerterg, and at one point skerterg answers with this:

First, to horrordude0215: the only thing you commented on about my long post (which really was only meant to deal with KageLord) was about my views on you (refer back to your post; I don't even see the word kelikar or KageLord in there!). I think I already gave my reasoning in an earlier post, and in my long post (if you read it) I mentioned I found nothing really that would tie you to razorback. It's like going to an airport to buy food; clearly that's not the main purpose of the airport. If you had commented more about my entire post instead of a very small, insignificant portion, then I would much less suspicious about your motives; the fact that you only talked about yourself didn't feel right to me.

He dismisses Horror's suspicion and then actually casts some shadow on him, because he did not "comment Kagelord's case". If there's only one scum left, having three suspicions without "sorting" them is something that seems a bit wrong. On 388 Pops votes for Kagelord supporting Skerterg's case. He doesn't seem wary of Skerterg anymore, and Skerterg doesn't really show any more concern for him, instead focusing on Kagelord. Then Red Star pops up and posts a case on Horror, which Excedrin picks up on evolves, while at the same time breaking Skerterg's case on Kagelord apart. And Skerterg eventually follows suit.

427 gives us more of what we've been getting so far, with a nice referal to Pops as an ideal policy lynch. No comment on Kagelord.

Later, he also asks me why is Excedrin so high on my list. Today, skerterg has revealed that this question was in fact part of a plan to see how much I was leaning on skerterg. But I think this is a bit of an excuse. If one looks carefully, he doesn't make much mention of it, and I responded to him in a way that wasn't buddying at all, destroying his argument that part of my suspicion on Excedrin was fueled because he also showed that suspicion.

On 442, we have Skerterg's "closing views" post. He makes a top-THREE suspect list (in a one-scum game)(which intererstingly are on horror, pops, and kagelord) and mentions that Pops isn't that suspicious at all. Still, he supports a lynch on Pops because he hasn't been very useful. The discussion continues and it seems people are more leaning to lynch Horror, which is more suspicious BUT!...

Wait, hasn't the deadline already passed?

I also think this is quite bit of evidence against Skerterg.

---

I was pretty surprised by the amount of things I started finding about Skerterg that made him seem very scummy. That said, my suspicion on Skerterg has grown and he is now my top suspect.

And I just noticed the deadline is tomorrow, and I thought we still had one week! Oh :s sorry, one of my other games has the other deadline.
That said, I don't want Damien to get lynched because I really believe he is the doctor (simply put, nothing can convince me that he'd be so crazy as to fakeclaim Day 1 after having that discussion with his scum partner).

For now,

Vote: Skerterg

and I'll also be looking closely at the thread.

[KittyMo]

[2] skerterg - (Excedrin, Exilon)

[1] Exilon - (skerterg)
[1] Damien777 - (KageLord)

[0] Excedrin - ()
[0] KageLord - ()

[1]

Not Voting

- (Damien777)

With

5

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, June 14, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

“Don't worry about life, you're not going to survive it anyway.â€

[Excedrin]

KageLord hammer?

Since skerterg is one of your top suspects, and he's going to be lynched by 2 votes, might as well end it now.

Also, if we're wrong about skerterg and the game goes to Day 4 then please don't assume Damien777 is clear (I think he probably is doc, but do your research and think things thru before voting).