Newbie 937 ~ Mafia Lite [Game Over]

[skerterg]

Alright, two posts coming, first is my defense, second are my thoughts and miscellanea. Just to note: I've been busy with graduation and I'll be busy for the next few days because I'm going to a summer camp. But I'll try to post as much as I can.

Post 146: I think if you look through all my posts, you'll see the words "maybe," "may seem," "perhaps," many "if" statements, etc. Relating to razorback, it is true I didn't have much to say about him. His posts didn't make sense to me, and after looking at his meta I really couldn't find a difference between his being town and his being mafia.

Post 183: Razorback's style and actions naturally makes him seem scummy. If you look at his meta, even when he is town he usually gets lynched because people don't like him. Therefore, because of this fact, I usually try to consider that razorback's style is naturally bad, even when he is town. He was also the easiest person for scum to push a mislynch for, because everyone always suspects him. I try to compensate for this and NOT suspect him, instead looking at others who do try to push for his lynch. Now, all this changed when he flipped mafia, of course, which is basically why I don't suspect Red Star anymore. However, at the time Red Star was really pushing hard for his lynch (along with a few others), which made me think that there was at least one scum, perhaps two, who joined the razorback bandwagon.

Post 199: First, it was hypocritical that he would put an L-1 vote after criticizing pops for doing so. Secondly, ahoda did do as pops predicted; he never came back and would be a useless townie. Therefore pops suggested a replacement, which was obviously the best choice. I understood his refusal to pull back the vote, because when you switch your votes around too much it's usually bad.

Post 208: What do you mean by "RVS bandwagon"? I stated that Red Star was the one who RVS'd him, so he could not be accused of bandwagoning. Therefore I looked at the other three: Leafsnail, kelikar, and horrordude0215. Leafsnail posted a good analysis and voted for razorback second (which is not as bandwagony as third or fourth), so I ignored him also. Therefore I looked at kelikar and horrordude. If razorback was town, these two would really be in a scummy position.

Post 2[3]3: First, how am I distancing myself from razor? The term "distancing" refers to accusing/hunting fellow mafia, right? I still conclude here that it's razorback's style that makes him seem scummy, not has actual content. I don't have anything to say about my style of writing; if that is scummy to you, then so be it.

Post 264: I'm not sure what you're saying here. In this post, I stated that I

don't

think razorback is mafia, and in fact move him lower in the list than in previous posts. My intent for the "but" was that his style makes him suspect, not his actual content. Sorry for not being clear, but the fact that "his style makes him suspect" is a defense of him, not an accusation.

In summary:
During day 1, I knew that razorback seemd scummy. However, looking at his meta, he always seemed scummy, so I tried to always consider that he

wasn't

scum. If I kept this in mind, then there would be a very high chance of bandwagoning/people attack razorback because he is easy lynch. I could not tell what his motivations were, which is usually the basis for my determining if someone is scum; therefore I felt that the main reason people were voting for him was because of his style. (For example, he refused to answer horror's questions at the beginning, but I can totally see him doing that even if he were town). If razor was town, then indeed Red Star (and horror and kelikar) would have to be examined greatly in depth. I think I mentioned this in some of my posts in day 1. However, because razorback flipped mafia, all my theories came to naught. However, this does not mean that I am mafia, because I do feel (even now) that there was an element of luck in lynching razorback. It is still very probable that he could have gone town. In fact, the only person I really felt nailed him was Leafsnail, and he's dead now.

However, great post and analysis. I hope I answered your questions.

[Damien777]

Post 146: I think if you look through all my posts, you'll see the words "maybe," "may seem," "perhaps," many "if" statements, etc. Relating to razorback, it is true I didn't have much to say about him. His posts didn't make sense to me, and after looking at his meta I really couldn't find a difference between his being town and his being mafia.

Alright, so you're saying my point is correct for the most part?

Post 183: Razorback's style and actions naturally makes him seem scummy. If you look at his meta, even when he is town he usually gets lynched because people don't like him. Therefore, because of this fact, I usually try to consider that razorback's style is naturally bad, even when he is town. He was also the easiest person for scum to push a mislynch for, because everyone always suspects him. I try to compensate for this and NOT suspect him, instead looking at others who do try to push for his lynch. Now, all this changed when he flipped mafia, of course, which is basically why I don't suspect Red Star anymore. However, at the time Red Star was really pushing hard for his lynch (along with a few others), which made me think that there was at least one scum, perhaps two, who joined the razorback bandwagon.

So you're saying that his meta is so confusing you so much that you have to keep an open mind? I know what you mean, I looked through some of his games and his meta

is

confusing. Your second point is that you countered his bad style with anti-suspicion. Why? Even if he wasn't scum, players who don't support and/or help the Town should be policy lynched. :S

Post 199: First, it was hypocritical that he would put an L-1 vote after criticizing pops for doing so. Secondly, ahoda did do as pops predicted; he never came back and would be a useless townie. Therefore pops suggested a replacement, which was obviously the best choice. I understood his refusal to pull back the vote, because when you switch your votes around too much it's usually bad.

Hypocritical, maybe, but that was on policy, not on actual suspicion like the Razor votes. The rest of the quote is not really responding to the accusation, just adding meaningless facts.

Post 208: What do you mean by "RVS bandwagon"? I stated that Red Star was the one who RVS'd him, so he could not be accused of bandwagoning. Therefore I looked at the other three: Leafsnail, kelikar, and horrordude0215. Leafsnail posted a good analysis and voted for razorback second (which is not as bandwagony as third or fourth), so I ignored him also. Therefore I looked at kelikar and horrordude. If razorback was town, these two would really be in a scummy position.

A RVS bandwagon is a bandwagon based on no solid facts. You attempted to make the Razor votes into a bandwagon based on little FACT, instead you made it seem like it was based on meta, which of course leads to Wine In Front Of Me (WIFOM).

Post 233: First, how am I distancing myself from razor? The term "distancing" refers to accusing/hunting fellow mafia, right? I still conclude that it's razorback's style that makes him seem scummy, not has actual content. I don't have anything to say about my style of writing; if that is scummy to you, then so be it.

No, the term 'distancing' refers to setting up contigincies by feighning ignorance. Which you are activating right now, by pointing out that you 'Still conclude that it's [Razor's] style that makes him seem scummy, not [his] actual content.' This allows you to escape suspicion, but maybe you're not lying and this is truefully what you thought.
And about your style of writing; So be it.

Post 264: I'm not sure what you're saying here. In this post, I stated that I

don't

think razorback is mafia, and in fact move him lower in the list than in previous posts. My intent for the "but" was that his style makes him suspect, not his actual content. Sorry for not being clear, but the fact that "his style makes him suspect" is a defense of him, not an accusation.

Ah, so this is just a misunderstanding.

In summary:
During day 1, I knew that razorback seemd scummy. However, looking at his meta, he always seemed scummy, so I tried to always consider that he

wasn't

scum. If I kept this in mind, then there would be a very high chance of bandwagoning/people attack razorback because he is easy lynch. I could not tell what his motivations were, which is usually the basis for my determining if someone is scum; therefore I felt that the main reason people were voting for him was because of his style. (For example, he refused to answer horror's questions at the beginning, but I can totally see him doing that even if he were town). If razor was town, then indeed Red Star (and horror and kelikar) would have to be examined greatly in depth. I think I mentioned this in some of my posts in day 1. However, because razorback flipped mafia, all my theories came to naught. However, this does not mean that I am mafia, because I do feel (even now) that there was an element of luck in lynching razorback. It is still very probable that he could have gone town. In fact, the only person I really felt nailed him was Leafsnail, and he's dead now.

The points that you still need to respond to are...
-Why didn't you want to policy-lynch Razor, and why did you resort to anti-suspicion because of his meta?
-Why you didn't act up when Pop L-1'ed Ahoda/Leafsnail?
-Why do you think Razor's content is good/neutral?

However, great post and analyisis. I hope I answered your questions.

AtE, anyone?

Scumdar on Skerterg:
7 and a half/10.

[skerterg]

Alright, so you're saying my point is correct for the most part?

I guess; this is the way I play the game. My writing style. I do use a lot of ifs, etc. and if I don't then I'm usually aware of the fact that I'm writing particularly forcefully.

So you're saying that his meta is so confusing you so much that you have to keep an open mind?

Yes, essentially. If I didn't force myself I would be guilty of everyone else falling into the trap of lynching someone because they don't like someone's style. I tried to prevent myself from doing so. Your statement that "players who don't support and/or help the Town should be policy lynched" is what I disagree with, at least on day 1. In my view, day 1 is a time for discussion and for non-policy lynches. Policy lynching day 1 is bad; it should at least wait until day 2, in my opinion. This is because during day 1 we have no information, so policy lynching is much too simple and too easy for scum to back without suspicion, if we agree that policy lynching should occur. On day 2, there is a lot more to talk about, so if then the town agrees on a policy lynch there is usually a good reason, especially if no particular person stands out. I specifically said so here:

Mine is that razorback is not sure-fire scum, at least not that much you guys make it out to be, but just a townie who is not of any help to the town and only serves to distract it by writing like scum. Though this is bad and one can argue that he deserves to be lynched, I don't feel like wasting a vote on him.

To summarize: I don't like policy lynching in principle, if that is the only reason for lynching someone. If you feel that pops was policy-lynched, then I say that that only happened because three people had 2 votes each. I hoped someone would switch over to KageLord, who I felt was the scummiest. pops also had some points against him that showed that he did have scummy behavior.

Hypocritical, maybe, but that was on policy, not on actual suspicion like the Razor votes. The rest of the quote is not really responding to the accusation, just adding meaningless facts.

Fine, for me to be consistent I should have called pops out on his L-1 vote. But I never stated that I thought his vote was

alright

; I only mentioned that I understood his not changing his vote. If you want, here's the bit where I talk about it:

Verdict: His most suspicious activity is placing ahoda at L-1. I must say that I think he handled it alright; I felt his responses were reasonable. I can hypothesize why switching votes is "noisy;" when doing vote analysis, it is usually not good to constantly hop around to different people. More consistent voting is...good? I think? And yes, voting is intent, but placing someone at L-1 is pretty darn close to hammering.

A RVS bandwagon is a bandwagon based on no solid facts. You attempted to make the Razor votes into a bandwagon based on little FACT, instead you made it seem like it was based on meta, which of course leads to Wine In Front Of Me (WIFOM).

I'm still not understanding this; could you please clarify? Basically, I felt, and still do, that razor was lynched mostly because people didn't like his writing or style.

No, the term 'distancing' refers to setting up contigincies by feighning ignorance. Which you are activating right now, by pointing out that you 'Still conclude that it's [Razor's] style that makes him seem scummy, not [his] actual content.' This allows you to escape suspicion, but maybe you're not lying and this is truefully what you thought.

Yes, I still do. Give me one real post where razorback actually appears to have a scum motive. The only one I can think of is his refusal to answer horror's questions. Usually I felt razorback could be ignored, since his posts usually weren't that insightful. Do not confuse scumminess with idiocy; his long chain of posts by Red Star is idiocy in my opinion. If you just look at the content, then I don't think razorback is particularly scummy. I can rewrite all his posts in comprehensive English and see what you think.

To answer your questions:

1. I don't support policy lynch on day 1. I resorted to anti-suspicion because otherwise I felt I would slip into the same mistake everyone else (with the exception of Leafsnail and maybe horror) was making, imo. So I forced myself to just look at the content. His meta shows that he writes in that way when he is both town and scum.
2. I should have acted up more, to be consistent. However, there are many others who also didn't really comment, but are you calling them out? I didn't think what he did was good, I just defended his refusal to change his vote.
3. Looking at his content, I felt it was mostly netural, maybe a bit scummy. If you look through my posts, he usually is in the mid-upper range in my scum-lists. It reflected what I felt and what I still feel.

Finally, I was just complimenting you. In my mind, AtE is when you don't have any content, and I had a lot in my post. If that was AtE, then just look at Exilon's (and perhaps a few others) posts where they say I'm the "most active scumhunter."

[skerterg]

Clarification: When I say policy lynching, I am referring to lurking and style. If someone is lurking I want a replacement. If he refuses to be replaced, then I will ask him to post more content. If he still doesn't and there doesn't seem to be anyone better to lynch, then I would support his lynch. I don't support lynching because of style. I felt razorback's lynch was mostly because of style.

[skerterg]

Triple post: alright, here's a post I've been working on and off for a few hours.

I don't think I'd kill the easier mislynch target :s

I think KageLord would have a pretty high chance of being a mislynch target, or so it seemed at the time. KageLord was my top suspect, so if you were hoping that I would push for his lynch then you might keep horror alive. To note: I've got quite a few town reads on KageLord. So, I don't suspect him as much now. Ever since my SOAP analysis, he hasn't given much of a scum read. I think Exilon is just trying to extend his time alive.

About me being Mainstream... hum, I don't reallly agree with that. I do tend to comment on what's hapenning, but generally I'm not really that much of a follower. If you look at the people still alive, it's pretty impossible not to share your views with other players. Most of the time, only one or two will be different from everyone else's. the problem kinda seems that I usually post after someone has done so first. IS that what you mean?

I didn't mean "follower;" you can be mainstream without being a follower. For example, if you believe player1 is pushing for player2 lynch, then you can post a case against player2. Because you post analysis, that doesn't make you a follower. However, I can see scum doing this; not following but seeing where the town winds blow and adding analysis as necessary. Also, it's very true that some opinions will overlap, but I feel throughout the game that you had the most in general accordance with town feeling. Let's have a look at some major points (feel free to mention any I may have overlooked):

"ahoda affair": In general, I'd say more people were against him. Red Star, horror, myself, and you posted cases against him; I think kelikar was the only one (maybe there was another) who defended ahoda.

"pops L-1 vote": I think horror, kelikar, and Exilon accused pops, with me defending him. Horror started this, kelikar FOS'd, and Exilon backed up with a case.

"razorback attack": Red Star, Leafsnail, horror, kelikar, and Exilon were for razor lynch; razor, myself, and Excedrin were for Red Star lynch. pops had voted for Red Star but switched to razor to hammer, and Exilon stated that would vote for razor. However, I think Exilon was one of the later ones (which wouldn't be that bad just by itself) but even then still seemed wavering and criticized Red Star.

"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Exilon and horror were against Excedrin, and Excedrin against Exilon. This felt more like a 1 vs. 1, with horror (and others) chiming in. Not too much to be gained from here just be looking at the sides.

"Case against pops": Red Star, me, Exilon, and kelikar were against him, and Excedrin (and pops) defended.

"KageLord": I started this, Exilon viewed him as scummy but kept vote on pops, pops viewed KageLord as scummy. Excedrin went along at first but revealed that he thought KageLord was town.

"horrordude0215": Excedrin and I pressured him, horror defended, don't remember too much otherwise.

Well, that's that. I think Exilon was present in each one of these except for maybe the last one. I don't see anyone else like that.

Problem is, if you're the one who's scum, then it seems fairly obvious you can get Skerterg to follow you into lynching Kagelord if by any chance you can't lynch Red Star instead (I'm believing Red Star will be killed tonight, if he's indeed the doc, furthering your "distancing"). Right now, I don't think town can afford a mislynch (specially not mine), as it'll leave very doubtful players remaining.

I don't think it would be that easy, tbh. I have a town read on both KageLord and Excedrin. The only thing I could imagine Excedrin bringing up is kelikar, which I already explained and considered.

Also, are you saying that we should lynch one of the "doubtful players" now? Then, if they turn up town, we should lynch you, who isn't one of the "doubtful players?" If you are suggesting Excedrin lynch, what makes him any less "doubtful" than anyone else? Again, I feel that Exilon is just trying to stay alive longer.

---

I just found this post by Skerterg. It seems as if Skert wants the Cop to claim so the Mafia can just kill him, rendering one of the most powerful Power-Roles useless. It also seems that Skert tries to keep that thought in the reader's mind, instead of posting his analysis and filling the mind with speculation.

There is no use in a cop claim at LYLO, since it is entirely possible that scum can do that; therefore that's why I asked for one today. However, I did not consider that if the cop doesn't claim, then (assuming he isn't roleblocked and that he exists) he will know for sure who is the scum in LYLO. All that remains is for him to convince the other townie. I think I mentioned this, and I apologize for not considering this earlier.

Now I have a puzzle. Apparently, Red Star fakeclaimed. I am a supporter of Lynch All Liars, but I can't be held responsible for Red Star's actions.

ROLECLAIM: Vanilla Townie.
Nothing special here, folks.

I think I know what Excedrin is getting at here, and I'll post my thoughts. Sorry if I'm making a mistake for not waiting for Exilon and KageLord, but here it is:

There are three possibilities for this new development:

1. Red Star is VT and fake-claimed.
2. Red Star is doctor and damien is fake-claiming.
3. Red Star/damien is scum and damien is right now "correcting" a fake-claim.

Personally, I believe it is #2. I think damien is saying that he is VT when he really is the doctor to confuse the mafia and get a reaction. Though it is possible that #1 is the scenario, I think #2 has more ground. If Red Star did fake-claim, I would think damien would have stated so earlier. Maybe not, but I also can't imagine Red Star fakeclaiming at the end of day 1. Finally, #3 is just wacko. It throws the game into insanity. I don't know why damien would correct a fakeclaim if he's mafia.

I have a guess of everyone's roles. I will post if someone asks for them and if no one objects. If you ask, I will assign a role to every single person, including myself.

[Excedrin]

However, great post and analyisis. I hope I answered your questions.

AtE, anyone?

This isn't an example of AtE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion

The closest scumtell you could assign would be buddying. But it is kinda a weird reaction for someone to a case that's about themself.

---

Re: skerterg's 3 options, the sum of 1 and 3 are like 99% and 2 is like 1%, but before damien's post today, I didn't consider option 1 as a possibility at all. I find option 2 basically ridiculous (but option 1 was too, before now). Option 3 is

awesome

, Red Star claimed doctor without pressure on day 1, risking outing the real doctor, asked for cop to claim on day 2, fabricated 2 protect targets while coasting thru suspicion from everyone (even one small point from Exilon, and suspicion from 2 dead players) until day 3, then revokes his doc claim and claims VT, which is such an incredibly impossible action for scum that he must be town... so he coasts to a win?

Awesome

, I'd be happy to lose to Red Star/Damien777 if that slot is scum.

[KageLord]

Kage Lord/Kelikar: As pointed out, the former has been defending Razor, and tried to ignore that fact when Razor flipped scum. However, in Kage's most recent post, I found a paragraph that struck my Scumdar.

3. I know you must have stated them earlier, but I have forgotten in this long lull what exactly my motivation for killing horror would supposedly be. I mean, as opposed to any of the other major suspects from Day 2. And can you clarify what doubts you have about me so that I may address them? The only major one that I can recall was about kelikar possibly trying to help razor, which, as it turns out, is not the best thing to look at when trying to catch scum.

In this, he seems to be admitting partial blame for the most recent death. He also deflects some suspicion from him onto the other 'major suspects from Day 2.' He also is guilty of Furbishing; I realize that this is only used in my RL games, so I'll explain.

Furbishing: Asking for a review of all the points against them in a game of Mafia. Gives time to build an argument, and true town wouldn't have to ask this. Scummy.

People who suspected Red Star, can you lay the concerns about him out for me, so I can respond to the best of my ability?

Waiiiiiiiiit... what? How am I admitting partial blame?

Second, I don't get what's wrong with "furbishing". It seems like a perfectly reasonable thing for town or scum to do. Why would town not want to dispel suspicion on themselves by asking for the points against them?

Finally... isn't that last part of your post also "furbishing"? >>

I think I know what Excedrin is getting at here, and I'll post my thoughts. Sorry if I'm making a mistake for not waiting for Exilon and KageLord, but here it is:

There are three possibilities for this new development:

1. Red Star is VT and fake-claimed.
2. Red Star is doctor and damien is fake-claiming.
3. Red Star/damien is scum and damien is right now "correcting" a fake-claim.

Personally, I believe it is #2. I think damien is saying that he is VT when he really is the doctor to confuse the mafia and get a reaction. Though it is possible that #1 is the scenario, I think #2 has more ground. If Red Star did fake-claim, I would think damien would have stated so earlier. Maybe not, but I also can't imagine Red Star fakeclaiming at the end of day 1. Finally, #3 is just wacko. It throws the game into insanity. I don't know why damien would correct a fakeclaim if he's mafia.

Actually... as it turns out, when I read Damien's post, #2 immediately jumped into my head as a strong possibility. But thinking about it further, I still can't find a clear forerunner among those 3:

1. I can somewhat believe the first one just because, as we know, there are some very bad town players. Wasn't it you who mentioned some townie fake-claiming before? As for Damien correcting the fakeclaim in this case, I could understand why he might be reluctant. After all, it would be likely that we'd suspect majorly for fakeclaiming and we might just go with a Lynch All Liars thing against Red Star.

2. This is still an even possibility for me. I thought about posting something about this when I first read Damien's post, but decided against it because... well, if this is the case, aren't we just bringing this possibility to the scum's attention? Anyway, the cat's out of the bag now. So, yeah, it's possible that Damien is the one that's fakeclaiming to divert scum attention. If so... plan failed.

3. Another even possibility. On the one hand, I suspected Red Star earlier, so obviously this possibility holds some merit for me. On the other hand, it does seem a bit odd for Damien to change the claim now since he would just be gambling that we believe him and don't LAL. He could be counting on skert to save him there though. It's clear that skert had a strong notscum-read on Red Star for a while now, so this option probably wouldn't appeal to him.

[Exilon]

I think KageLord would have a pretty high chance of being a mislynch target, or so it seemed at the time. KageLord was my top suspect, so if you were hoping that I would push for his lynch then you might keep horror alive. To note: I've got quite a few town reads on KageLord. So, I don't suspect him as much now. Ever since my SOAP analysis, he hasn't given much of a scum read. I think Exilon is just trying to extend his time alive.

So, to note: you don't think Kagelord is an easy mislynch target. and you're kinda going in circles here. Why aren't you considering the opposite as well, that Excedrin would have pushed for Horror's lynch? Because, at the time, it seemed fairly obvious Horror was having much more of the "spotlight" than Kagelord.
Also, why would me stating an opinion about my supposed nightkill = trying to stay alive?

I didn't mean "follower;" you can be mainstream without being a follower. For example, if you believe player1 is pushing for player2 lynch, then you can post a case against player2. Because you post analysis, that doesn't make you a follower. However, I can see scum doing this; not following but seeing where the town winds blow and adding analysis as necessary. Also, it's very true that some opinions will overlap, but I feel throughout the game that you had the most in general accordance with town feeling. Let's have a look at some major points (feel free to mention any I may have overlooked):

"ahoda affair": In general, I'd say more people were against him. Red Star,

horror

,

myself

, and you posted cases against him; I think kelikar was the only one (maybe there was another) who defended ahoda.

"pops L-1 vote": I think

horror

, kelikar, and Exilon accused pops, with

me

defending him. Horror started this, kelikar FOS'd, and Exilon backed up with a case.

"razorback attack": Red Star, Leafsnail,

horror

, kelikar, and Exilon were for razor lynch; razor,

myself

, and Excedrin were for Red Star lynch. pops had voted for Red Star but switched to razor to hammer, and Exilon stated that would vote for razor. However, I think Exilon was one of the later ones (which wouldn't be that bad just by itself) but even then still seemed wavering and criticized Red Star. (

of course I criticized Red Star, his play was scummy. I had been criticizing him, actually, even before you voted for him, IIRC. It started right before Ahoda's affair. What's the problem in doing so? Expressing my views is scummy?

"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Exilon and

horror

were against Excedrin, and Excedrin against Exilon. This felt more like a 1 vs. 1, with horror (and

others

) chiming in. Not too much to be gained from here just be looking at the sides.

This one actually works in my favor, so interesting you didn't mention it in this post, even using it as part of your final paragraph which is supposed to support the suspicion's of me? The town's wind WAS CLEARLY BLOWING in Excedrin's direction at the time and I followed suit. Right?

"Case against pops": Red Star,

me

, Exilon, and kelikar were against him, and Excedrin (and pops) defended.

This is more or less when Horror was V/LA, IIRC.

"KageLord":

I

started this, Exilon viewed him as scummy but kept vote on pops, pops viewed KageLord as scummy. Excedrin went along at first but revealed that he thought KageLord was town.

Where was Horror at this point? Oh, right.

"horrordude0215": Excedrin and

I

pressured him, horror defended, don't remember too much otherwise.

Well, that's that. I think Exilon

was present in each one of these except for maybe the last one. I don't see anyone else like that.

So me being an active player with original analysis and fresh perspectives on various subjects (except for Kagelord, due to a little period of "busy-ness"), be them attacking or not, makes me scum? This seems a bit of a reach.
You don't see anyone else like that? Check the underlined. Also to note that Horror didn't exactly post much in each of the cases. ... Oh, and he's dead now. He was also not really suspicious of me IIRC, which means he would have defended me. ...Oh, can this be.. a motive, I see?

Oh look, there's yet another player who was also present in ALL of them, except maybe for one, like me. ... so, all in all, three players in the same situation.
You seem to be reaching for a case.

Jeebuz, I've convinced myself pretty well. Let's lynch this remaining scum.

Obviously you have to convice yourself so your position looks genuine.


Re: Red Star's fakeclaim
I have to grab Skertereg's post for this as he pretty much covers up all possibilities.

By Skerterg:
"1. Red Star is VT and fake-claimed.
2. Red Star is doctor and damien is fake-claiming.
3. Red Star/damien is scum and damien is right now "correcting" a fake-claim. "


I agree with Excedrin that number 3 would be purely awesome.But basically, if Red Star was VT, then that means we're back to square zero and we have no idea of what setup we're in. So much for forced wins, eh Skerterg?
In onky one of those cases is Red Star scum (and it would awesome), so as Excedrin said, red Star leans town. However, that doesn't change much as it basically leans the same way Red Star claiming doc did (and which now disappeared). So he's at about the same position.
(I think there's also another thing that one can deduce but for convenience I won't talk about it yet).

Still: Why would 1 or 2 work? What motivation would lead Red Star/Damien to do so?

1- He wanted to avoid a NK on both the real doc (if there was one) and "protect" a strong player. By acting as bait, scum would feel inclined to kill him and therefore rid town of a player who had acted scummy, clearing his slot, and avoiding the death of Skerterg or me. This actually makes lots of sense and I'm inclined to believe in this one.

2- Why would Damien fakeclaim? Essentially, he could be scanning for useful reactions and making tonight's protection unclear so scum would feel inclined to leave him alive and possibly hitting his protection. However, this is a bit of WIFOM interlink with 3.


-------

If there is anything I didn't comment or forgot to adress, tell me.
@Excedrin: Hum... *notes*. Ok.

Quote/URL tag fixed. ~Kitty

[Exilon]

PS: There's also another possibility out of those 3 I just realized, but it just seems to out-of-this town to even consider.

[Excedrin]

I have a guess of everyone's roles. I will post if someone asks for them and if no one objects. If you ask, I will assign a role to every single person, including myself.

I'd like to see this, as long as nobody responds with "I'm not X, I'm Y." or even posts a hint at whether his guess is right or wrong.

The alternative to that would be a massclaim (popcorn claim) where skerterg goes first and posts his role as well as his thoughts on other people's roles.

---

Exilon, yea, other options don't really make sense, and they fit into "currently lying town" which is basically skerterg's option 2.

---

Re: my unposted post, I think I figured out a way to "prove" that I wrote it now and not later:
There's N:M (36:201, 22:122, 12:60, 19:120, 62:349, 27:155, 10:85, 15:99, 15:94, 91:563, 48:257) words:characters on each of the lines I wrote.
Yes, I could reword stuff so it's still N:M words:characters, so there is some doubt.
Posting a crc32 of the entire message would make this easy but I think it falls into rule 1 in the mechanics section (no crypto).
Along those lines, I'm thinking it's probably silly to sit on it this long. Oh well.

[Damien777]

Oh god. This is a lot to respond to.
Skerterg's first post: You've pretty much convinced me that your town. Mainly because your arguements don't have any fallacies in them, and you seem pretty calm.
Scumdar rating:
2.5/10.

Unvote.

Skerteg's second [content] post:
Great analysis for the first part, I agree with him on his claims.
Now I'll explain my rather odd claim.
Option one is wrong.
Option two is correct.
Option three is wrong.
You may be asking, 'Why did you do this?' I mainly did this to generate discussion and get reactions from possible scum. The second reason was that maybe the Mafia would, on the off-chance, not off me tonight and rob the town of a, possibly the only, power role.


Excedrin's first post:
First part: I see. I must of misunderstood it (AtE.)
Second: As I said,

I

fakeclaimed to draw reactions, not Red Star. Also, I acted kinda selfish, because I didn't wnt to be NK'd my first night.


Kage Lord's first post:

Waiiiiiiiiit... what? How am I admitting partial blame?

Second, I don't get what's wrong with "furbishing". It seems like a perfectly reasonable thing for town or scum to do. Why would town not want to dispel suspicion on themselves by asking for the points against them?

Finally... isn't that last part of your post also "furbishing"? >>

You're admitting partial blame by acting as if you were Mafia. I misread that part though, so this point is invalid. Chalk up point for you. :p

Furbishing is scummy because, usually, a town player puts more effort into the daygame and voting/talking then Mafia players, who put effort into misdirecting people and the nightgame. So, by that, since Town wouldn't have anything to worry about other then defending themselves, they could dedicate themselves to finding information about their defence.

And the last part of my post is technically Furbishing, but since I replaced in, I have no idea of the true depth of Red Star's actions.


Exilon's first post:
First part is pretty good defence, second I've already answered.

Excedrin's second post:
Bottom part I don't understand. What are N:M words?
Middle part: Already answered that.
Top part: Massclaim is usually only good the day before LyLo, so Skerterg's analysis sounds good.

I think I just messed up as my first day on my first game of online mafia. :S

[skerterg]

So, to note: you don't think Kagelord is an easy mislynch target. and you're kinda going in circles here. Why aren't you considering the opposite as well, that Excedrin would have pushed for Horror's lynch? Because, at the time, it seemed fairly obvious Horror was having much more of the "spotlight" than Kagelord.
Also, why would me stating an opinion about my supposed nightkill = trying to stay alive?

I was quite clear that I stated KageLord was my top suspect. If you were hoping that I would be the main person leading a lynch, then you would perhaps kill horror so that I would go after KageLord. Only now do you learn that KageLord isn't viewed as scummy by me. At the time, I placed him at the top of the list, so the motives would have lined up at the time. Also, it is true that Excedrin may have pushed for horror lynch. But I would push for KageLord lynch. Thus, my point stands: it isn't that clear who the easier mislynch target would have been between KageLord and horror.

So me being an active player with original analysis and fresh perspectives on various subjects (except for Kagelord, due to a little period of "busy-ness"), be them attacking or not, makes me scum? This seems a bit of a reach.
You don't see anyone else like that? Check the underlined. Also to note that Horror didn't exactly post much in each of the cases. ... Oh, and he's dead now. He was also not really suspicious of me IIRC, which means he would have defended me. ...Oh, can this be.. a motive, I see?

Oh look, there's yet another player who was also present in ALL of them, except maybe for one, like me. ... so, all in all, three players in the same situation.
You seem to be reaching for a case.

You missed my point. I was saying how you seemed to go along with what the

majority

of the town was feeling. In each of these, I specified what I felt was the majority town feeling; you are on its side usually. No one else was except possibly horror. Now, horror also was, but he's dead now. Otherwise, I probably would have called him out for it; in fact, I did during day 2. He moved his vote/suspicion around quite a bit, which I felt wasn't too good. However, there is a difference: horror initiated a lot. I didn't feel this was town at first, since it seemed like he was just trying to start a bandwagon on often questionable evidence, but I guess it is a town tell, at least for him (his style, perhaps?). Let's look at the events again:

"ahoda affair": horror was the main fire starter here.

"pops L-1 vote": Again, horror was the first to place his vote here.

"razorback attack": horror was one of the later votes. But so were you, Exilon. So mostly equal here.

"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Even here, horror was the first to vote Excedrin, on the questionable basis of "misrepping." Your vote was second.

"Case against pops": I don't think horror said much (he was V/LA). You did mention your suspicion throughout, I think; however IIRC it was after I posted a lot of my case against pops that you voted.

"KageLord": horror didn't really say anything about it, and I don't remember exactly what you did. Your suspicion increased, I think. Not too much of a difference between horror and you here.

"horror": horror voted against Excedrin. Again, I don't exactly remember what you stated.

Overall, I'd say horror started more than you did.

Like I said, scum can easily offer fresh perspectives. I view this as neither a scum nor town tell.

Now, the final argument is about whether this is a good test for scum. We saw that horror came up town. I still feel that this should be considered against Exilon, and while it is not 100% correct it is at least some more evidence. There are other cases that I made against Exilon; this is just another argument.

Also, how does not suspecting you imply defending you? Horror, in my opinion, had a neutral read on you. He would neither defend nor attack you, assuming his views stayed the same.

---

I believe Damien777. Some other facts to look at in support of option 2: if you look at the context, he is saying that mafia don't know for sure what the game setup is. Then he fakeclaims. I really did feel that he was just throwing in a confuser to test mafia. For example, if remaining mafia is RB, then if Red Star fakeclaimed doctor and was really VT, mafia could be confident there is no cop. Similarly, if remaining mafia is goon then if there is no doctor there is a cop.

Another thing: Damien says "Now, I have a puzzle." This made me think that this could be something he could use later on to reclaim the role of doctor. He could say the whole thing was a "puzzle" intended for everyone else to solve. Something like that.

You may be asking, 'Why did you do this?' I mainly did this to generate discussion and get reactions from possible scum. The second reason was that maybe the Mafia would, on the off-chance, not off me tonight and rob the town of a, possibly the only, power role.

First reason is basically what I said. Second is plausible, I guess.

---

Alright, I'll give a list of my predictions. But I'll wait just a bit more to see if anyone objects. I'm fine with the popcorn role-claiming, and I'm wiling to go first. Which one will it be, Excedrin (and others)? Just my guesses or a massclaim?

Also, I'm very interested in Excedrin's post. I don't know why even now he doesn't want to post it. I do believe that he wrote the post and won't change it. However, I thought I already revealed damien777's plot, which I thought you were going to comment on. So, I don't really have a guess on what your post will be, and why you still didn't post it.

[KageLord]

Yeah... I'm also waiting for Excedrin's post.

On the topic of your claim thing, I would be fine with either. I don't have any experience with that sort of thing, so I'll just go with whatever you guys decide. I don't really understand the point though... unless someone is suddenly going to claim cop.

[KittyMo]

[1] Exilon - (skerterg)

[1] Excedrin - (Exilon)

[0] KageLord - ()
[0] Red Star - ()
[0] skerterg - ()

[3]

Not Voting

- (Damien777, Excedrin, KageLord)

With

5

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, June 14, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

Prods & Replacements

No prods! How fun!

"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning." ~ Albert Einstein

[Excedrin]

I believe Damien777. Some other facts to look at in support of option 2: if you look at the context, he is saying that mafia don't know for sure what the game setup is. Then he fakeclaims. I really did feel that he was just throwing in a confuser to test mafia. For example, if remaining mafia is RB, then if Red Star fakeclaimed doctor and was really VT, mafia could be confident there is no cop. Similarly, if remaining mafia is goon then if there is no doctor there is a cop.

Here's the 1st 2 lines of "the post:"

If you're town, then scum would still believe that you are doctor. Then he'd know which setup they're in. Obviously if scum is roleblocker, he would believe that there's a cop based on Red Star's lie.

If Red Star is town, then his gambit really sucks, he could have exposed the real doctor (lucky that there isn't one)...

But, I didn't make a connection between the idea that his "scum don't know the setup" mistake was intentional and then get to "this must be some kind of trick." I never would have considered that. I'll post the rest of it after we do whatever we're doing re: roles. I'm OK with either option (popcorn claim or just the list). Do whichever you like after Exilon (I think he's the only one who hasn't commented) sees this and throws in his 2c.

You may be asking, 'Why did you do this?' I mainly did this to generate discussion and get reactions from possible scum. The second reason was that maybe the Mafia would, on the off-chance, not off me tonight and rob the town of a, possibly the only, power role.

The 2nd reason isn't going to work if you reveal your lie before the end of the day. Also doesn't work if you get lynched for lying. So, what reactions did you observe? So far, it seems like you now conclude that a consistently protown player is town. Who's scum in your view now that skerterg isn't?

Since Damien777's deception and revelation, I have to re-evaluate again.

[Exilon]

Skerterg's first post: You've pretty much convinced me that your town. Mainly because your arguements don't have any fallacies in them, and you seem pretty calm.
Scumdar rating:
2.5/10.

How does a person fall 5 points in a rating by answering calmly and having a unflawed argument? That doesn't really make sense.

Also...
So you were fakeclaiming and Red Star was always a doc? Hum, okay. There's not really much I can say other than what I stated (Excedrin's delayed post also reflected what I said earlier about "being able to deduce something else from the fakeclaim.").

Anyway, Damien, why did you 'ruin' your own plan? You could have checked the reactions and still kept quiet about it (even seeing as how there wasn't much suspicion on you, which could have made the gambit more succesful).

Was there any reaction you found useful? And if yes, why?



----

You missed my point. I was saying how you

seemed

to go along with what the majority of the town was feeling. In each of these, I specified what I felt was the majority town feeling; you are on its side

usually

.

No one else was except possibly horror.

Now, horror also was, but he's dead now

"USUALLY on the side of town" is where EVERYONE is, and is quite different from the initial "MOSTLY sided with town feeling so far". Also, you're forgetting someone that I also underlined, and that fits the requisites for your accusation. Care to check it?

And what's the issue here? Is it me not starting enough cases (which doesn't really make me scum - Excedrin also pointed that out Day 2), or just being everywhere "town is"? Either way I'd like to know how that makes me scum.

Otherwise, I probably would have called him out for it; in fact, I did during day 2. He moved his vote/suspicion around quite a bit, which I felt wasn't too good. However, there is a difference: horror initiated a lot. I didn't feel this was town at first, since it seemed like he was just trying to start a bandwagon on often questionable evidence, but I guess it is a town tell, at least for him (his style, perhaps?). Let's look at the events again:

It is a town tell for him to "initiate" something based on little stuff? Interesting of you to say that after he's dead while also adding "I guess".

For me, I always thought reaching for cases was a little scummy.

"ahoda affair": horror was the main fire starter here.

On something a little controversial, which evolved into something more productive, and who were those people who made it productive?

"pops L-1 vote": Again, horror was the first to place his vote here.

And I kept questioning him and calling him up for several things even after that argument had been dropped. Also to note the difference from my case to Horror's case.

"razorback attack": horror was one of the later votes. But so were you, Exilon. So mostly equal here.

And he posted his case (which was very elaborate) and attack on Razorback waaay before I did.

"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Even here, horror was the first to vote Excedrin, on the questionable basis of "misrepping." Your vote was second.

Yes, and Horror was also the one who attacked him first, or Fos'd him. /sarcasm. You're the one who's misrepping. And it wasn't questionable, later on I showed how Excedrin had some blatant misreps in his posts.

"Case against pops":

I don't think horror said much (he was V/LA). You did mention your suspicion throughout, I think; however IIRC it was after I posted a lot of my case against pops that you voted.

I vote on PS349, to apply pressure because Pops behaviour was consitent with him being scum with Razorback . Where was your case then? Before or after the Excedrin vs Exilon? Good to see the IIRC there, it's always a nice excuse to misrep stuff while still looking town. Does this also make me scummier than Horror, which is what you are trying to prove?

"KageLord": horror didn't really say anything about it, and I don't remember exactly what you did. Your suspicion increased, I think. Not too much of a difference between horror and you here.

Oh yeah, he INITIATED a lot, which is what you are trying to show.

"horror": horror voted against Excedrin. Again, I don't exactly remember what you stated.

Thanks for not remebering yet still accusing me on that basis. Oh, and by the way, who initiated here?

Overall, I'd say horror started more than you did.

Like I said, scum can easily offer fresh perspectives. I view this as neither a scum nor town tell.

There are other cases that I made against Exilon; this is just another argument.

"I have this other case / cases about him in case this one fails, just so you know. Reason I don't post it is 1: I want to make it look like it's significant when it is not, or 2) I'm lying, or 3) I recall some stuff which I can use but I have to go seasch for it and don't want to "waste" time."

Is how I am actually reading it. Or is there some reason I am not seeing, like "there's cooler stuff to look at right now, there, there, LOOK!"

-----

Re: Roles
I'm ok with massclaim or anything of the sort.

[Excedrin]

I was re-reading some early day 1 posts and I noticed this discussion of purely random lynch vs nolynch. Purely random lynch is infinitely better than nolynch.

Proof:
Purely random lynch has a (number of scum) / (number alive) chance of lynching scum
Nolynch has zero chance of lynching scum
If there's scum alive, then nonzero chance of lynching scum / zero chance of lynching scum = infinitely better
QED

(btw, I'm not good at math, the math part there is a joke, but the point is the same, any lynch is better than nolynch (as long as town has a freelynch))

[KittyMo]

[1] Exilon - (skerterg)

[1] Excedrin - (Exilon)

[0] KageLord - ()
[0] Red Star - ()
[0] skerterg - ()

[3]

Not Voting

- (Damien777, Excedrin, KageLord)

With

5

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, June 14, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

Prods & Replacements

Nobody needs a prod~

“One of the truest tests of integrity is its blunt refusal to be compromised.” ~ Chinua Achebe

[Excedrin]

So, does anyone play Super Street Fighter 4?

I occasionally get interested in fighting games, so, I've been playing Soulcalibur (the original, on dreamcast) at work a bit (recently), and SSF4 at home. I'm not particularly good, but it's fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU5YZ2ECp8M

I found this on youtube recently, pretty entertaining match. I like how it's two characters who can spam fireballs and they basically spam the shit out of each other with fireballs (until they don't). Commentary is funny too.

Anyway, I've checked in, done stuff I needed to re: modding, checked for new posts in 937, aaaand going to sleep. Have a good night!

[KageLord]

Uh... okay. Not sure if that's relevant to our game, but...

Anyway, I think everyone other than Damien has said they'd be okay with massclaim.

[skerterg]

Skerterg: Vanilla Townie
Excedrin: Vanilla Townie
KageLord: Vanilla Townie
Exilon: Mafia Goon
Damien777: Doctor

It really isn't that surprising, actually. If you accept Damien/Red Star's claim of doctor, then you only need to consider two possible setups and decide whether there is a cop or not.

I decided that there is no cop. I was debating whether Excedrin might be cop for a while. He readily defended pops, and I thought there was a high chance he would have investigated him during night 1; I think I would have. However, I basically asked him here:

What is your defense of popsofctown? You say you're not convinced he is scum. Why?

His reply was:

I'm not convinced of anything about popsofctown. He usually pops in, drops some science, mentions his reads and disappears. He could be actually disinterested, but he could also be blatantly coasting or resigned since there's enough suspicion of him (somewhat misplaced in my opinion, re: the hammer stuff) that he figures there's no hope for a win (this theory goes, he had to hammer his scumbuddy because that's what any reasonably experienced player would do in that situation, now he's 1 scum vs everyone and hopeless etc). As a game (drags) goes on,

strong reads tend to get weaker, that's what I think is happening to my popsofctown read.

Also, his hammer post is funny, it seems like nobody noticed the fact that he's basically replaced the words from Red Star's post.

Previously, he defended pops quite strongly and he even said he would have changed his vote to KageLord to avoid pops lynch. However, I felt that if he were cop and investigated pops he would be more assertive in this particular response. The bolded portion is especially non-cop; a cop's read would never diminish. So, I don't think he is cop.

I don't think KageLord is cop either, because he was quite relaxed after my accusation (at L-1) and he hasn't really posted anything that would make me think otherwise.

And since I think Exilon is mafia and Damien the doctor, neither of them can be cop either.

I think that a mass claim would be best. I am vanilla townie. I would like Exilon to go next.

(In popcorn claim, you give your role when you are chosen and choose the next person to claim, until no one is left).

After the mass claim, I'll post my response to Exilon's post.

[Exilon]

Vanilla Townie here.
Excedrin, ACTIVATE!

[Excedrin]

Townie. KageLord next.

Below is the post I delayed. Basically, Damien777 pointed out some stuff that I thought was reasonable and worth examining skerterg. Since he's retracted his lie I'm not sure what to think.

Note that skerterg's post above confirmed that he thought I was cop. All of his role speculation and that he thought I was cop seems very scummy to me. Scum hunts power roles, town hunts scum.

Vote: skerterg

---

If you're town, then scum would still believe that you are doctor. Then he'd know which setup they're in. Obviously if scum is roleblocker, he would believe that there's a cop based on Red Star's lie.

If Red Star is town, then his gambit really sucks, he could have exposed the real doctor (lucky that there isn't one)...

In light of this new info, these two posts kinda stick out:

#313
if Red Star is doctor, which is likely, seeing that it would be bad for vanilla townie to claim

#336
One idea I had is that pops knew Red Star must be townie and thus doctor (since fake-claiming as townie is bad) because pops is mafia.

Nobody else even considered that Red Star was town and fake claiming. This really looks like scum perspective thinking.

#461
I will assume Red Star is confirmed doctor. The rest of the post accepts this fact.
...
Why? If Red Star was kept alive Night 1, what makes it any different from being kept alive Night 2?

This post seemed a bit weird to me at the time because thoughts around Red Star's claim don't seem right ("confirmed doctor", "[but] post some of your arguments") it looks like the fake claiming town part is gone. There's the hint that he thinks I'm cop, and there's the "why not keep Red Star alive?" which clearly applies if he's the roleblocker.

#470
KageLord: Can you think (try very hard) of any reason why Red Star was kept alive for Night 1 and Night 2? (Assume he is really doctor). In other words, answer your own question:

The implication here is "scum is roleblocker, who doesn't care about doctor protects since doctor will be blocked and scum will then try to kill the cop."

This could explain skerterg's shifting suspicion, and possibly horrordude nightkill.

Day 2, I opposed a popsofctown lynch. skerterg shifted his suspicion from popsofctown to KageLord.
Day 3, I've opposed a KageLord lynch. skerterg shifted his suspicion from KageLord to Exilon.

Horrordude also maintained a fairly low profile, I said he was scummy because of it, to scum, horrordude may have seemed like a potential cop trying to avoid attention. This doesn't contradict the idea that skerterg thought I was cop, the thought might be "well, either horrordude or Excedrin is cop, if it's Excedrin then he'll probably inspect horrordude, so killing horrordude looks like a win-win." Possibly falling back on Excedrin's Exilon suspicion to get Exilon lynched, wheras in the horrordude alive Excedrin dead scenario the "ez lynch" is less clear.

So, premise is that skerterg is scum rb who thought I was cop, therefore he stopped pushing for popsofctown lynch and KageLord lynches based on the idea that I had town results on both of them and that pushing harder would have made him obvious scum to me.

[Damien777]

V/LA until the eighteenth

Got it. ~KittyMo

[KageLord]

Vanilla Townie here! And... I guess I would tell Damien777 to go next, but he's V/LA and we know what he would probably say... unless he says he was lying about lying.

So, can someone explain to me what the purpose of the massclaim is/was? What else would have happened except for everyone except Damien777 claiming VT?