Mini 975 - Dirty Dirty South Mafia - game over

[TheButtonmen]

@SK:

Later when you have time or later as in when morning ends?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Well....it works.
Also, in my experience, people who attack the method is usually scum but my exp. is kinda limitted so far.

And you know that it works how?

I don't deny that there's a real effect underlying the notion, but I don't think it's a particularly strong one. And there's a tendency for people to dabble in fallacious probabilistic reasoning where they fail to take into account that if 4 of the 5 wagonners look townie, then that raises the likelihood that there isn't scum on the wagon considerably. And if there are two things I can't stand, it's mohawks and fallacious probabilistic reasoning (just kidding, I don't really mind mohawks all that much).

[SaintKerrigan]

@SK:

Later when you have time or later as in when morning ends?

Later as in when certain conditions are met. Morning's end is one of those conditions.

[Ellibereth]

Meh. I don't really care if you think it's fallacious and don't feel like discussing it now.
What do you think about Mae from last page?

[Hoopla]

Well....it works.
Also, in my experience, people who attack the method is usually scum but my exp. is kinda limitted so far.

And you know that it works how?

I don't deny that there's a real effect underlying the notion, but I don't think it's a particularly strong one. And there's a tendency for people to dabble in fallacious probabilistic reasoning where they fail to take into account that if 4 of the 5 wagonners look townie, then that raises the likelihood that there isn't scum on the wagon considerably. And if there are two things I can't stand, it's mohawks and fallacious probabilistic reasoning (just kidding, I don't really mind mohawks all that much).

It isn't fallacious reasoning - as far as psychological tells, it's quite efficient. Many scum players generally do have a subconcious bias toward distancing in wagon opinion and position. I've played/read a quite a lot of Mini's (mostly Normals), and it's a very rare circumstance for all three scum to be on the lynch wagon, and it's even rarer for all three to be off it. Unless scum deliberately set out to counter this specific tell, it will very rarely happen on it's own, because most scum players are generally

more

wary of being linked to partners via buddying tells, which is more commonly used than this tell. Block-voting and such tactics isn't always a bad idea as scum, but if wagon analysis doesn't get used, then you'll be caught out via buddying tells (even though most players that use these association tells suck at it), and won't reap any rewards of being in unlikely positions on lynches compared to your buddies.

The '2 off, 1 on' (and such variants) isn't a commonly enough used tell for scum teams to plan their play around. The more common a tell becomes, the less accurate is becomes as scum are likely to counter it. It doesn't mean all obscure tells are more accurate (there are a lot of poorly reasoned tells out there), but well-reasoned tells that scum don't expect are likelier to produce results because scum haven't preempted it. I deem this tell valid enough to be likelier than random.

[camn]

Wagon analysis is made of win.

@Mae
I don't really remember lovers... Remind me pls?

[Incognito]

Earlder1 (1) <-~ Kenman
Steam-Powered Shovel (2) <-~ Ellibereth, Hoopla
TheButtonmen (1) <-~ Steam-Powered Shovel
Maemuki (3) <-~ camn, SaintKerrigan, SerialClergyman

Not voting (4) <-~ Maemuki, bouncy.bouncy, TheButtonmen, Earlder1

11 alive; 6 votes will do it.

An asterisk by a player's name indicates said player would be lynched if deadline were to hit right this moment.

Morning Deadline:

Friday, May 21st at 9:00 P.M. EST

Day Deadline:

Monday, May 24th at 9:00 P.M. EST

[SaintKerrigan]

Kenman, I know you were online earlier and looking in Coney Island. If you're trying to avoid answering my question, you better just give it up. Your moment of truth is going to happen in 3-1/2 hours anyway.

[bouncy.bouncy]

Roleblockers resolve after hiding, so that doesn't interfere with the tracker result

That's only if Incog uses Natural Action Resolution or something like it.

That was already confirmed somewhere in the thread. Either Earlder or Kenman has to be lying. Or both

[SaintKerrigan]

Roleblockers resolve after hiding, so that doesn't interfere with the tracker result

That's only if Incog uses Natural Action Resolution or something like it.

That was already confirmed somewhere in the thread. Either Earlder or Kenman has to be lying. Or both

If Natural Action Resolution was confirmed to be in use, I never saw it. If Deep South mechanics run as stated on Page 1, then Natural Action Resolution is a direct conflict with that.

[Ellibereth]

NAR was confirmed to me via pm.
Doesn't contradict Deep South at all.

[SaintKerrigan]

NAR was confirmed to me via pm.
Doesn't contradict Deep South at all.

Ok.

Shit. There goes my wonderful idea.

[SaintKerrigan]

Actually, scratch that. My plan still works.

[SaintKerrigan]

And I just realized that because of this, I don't need to wait on Kenman's answer before revealing the plan.

We know either Kenman or Earlder1 is scum. Both of their claims can't be true. Kenman has already stated that he sent his hide PM, behind Earl, so that action should resolve at morning's end. Hiders obviously die if they hide behind mafia.

So, by morning's end, we'll know for sure which of Earl and Kenman is lying by whether Kenman dies or not. If he dies, he was telling the truth, and Earl is scum. If Kenman lives, Earl was telling the truth, and thus Kenman is scum.

Thus, if we wait to lynch until after morning, we'll know for sure which of those two is scum, and we'll lynch the lying scumbag.

Anything wrong that I missed?

[camn]

Scum bus driver or roleblocker.

Kennan dies before lylo. But no need for it to be now.
If you are scared of his vote, we can control it, on pain of death.

[SaintKerrigan]

Scum bus driver or roleblocker.

If Natural Action Resolution is being used, Kenman's hide should not be affected by either of those abilities.

One of those two guys is scum. By morning's end, we'll know who it is.

[camn]

No need to speculate on setup.
Kenman is nullified.

Plus, my gut says he is telling the truth.

[SaintKerrigan]

No need to speculate on setup.
Kenman is nullified.

Plus, my gut says he is telling the truth.

Then he'll die at morning's end and we can lynch Earl.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

What do you think about Mae from last page?

Weird mostly. I have trouble gleaning anything in terms of alignment from it.

Hoopla, I'm well aware that's there a genuine effect at the heart of it and the tell can, in principle, be applied responsibly. (Although I personally have no qualms being the third scum on or off a wagon.) But in practice it's very hard not to be influenced by a priori reasoning such as "it's a very rare circumstance for all three scum to be on the lynch wagon" when clearly this is not an unreasonable possibility if you've already determined 2 scum to be on the wagon.

[camn]

Yep. Or tomorrow morning when he targets some other scum, if we are wrong about the resolution.

[SaintKerrigan]

Yep. Or tomorrow morning when he targets some other scum, if we are wrong about the resolution.

If Kenman doesn't die at morning's end, he's scum, and we lynch him. Period.

Earl explicitly stated that his Tracking tells him if Kenman targeted someone, so even if Kenman somehow got roleblocked last night, he should've still registered to Earl has having had a target. Earl says Kenman didn't target anyone. Thus, one of them is lying scum, and by morning's end we'll know which one it is.

[Kenman]

Ive looked at my pm several times, but it doesnt state anywhere when my ability resolves. Is that the same with everybody else?

Kenman has already stated that he sent his hide PM, behind Earl, so that action should resolve at morning's end

-@SK- You checked to see if I was online! Im flattered, looks like i got a stalker! Sorry I didnt answer your question immediately, I didnt know a couple hours was a big deal to you. From now answering Saint Kerrigans questions are my TOP priority in life.
Im also worried about your logic. If my ability actually resolves at end day, then me surviving the morning is not idicative of anything. Your just gong to end up killing me on faulty logic.

[camn]

Can we get back to lynching Maemuki?

[SaintKerrigan]

Can we get back to lynching Maemuki?

We aren't lynching Maemuki today.

Unvote: Maemuki.

Why are you so determined that Kenman stay alive?

[SaintKerrigan]

Im also worried about your logic. If my ability actually resolves at end day, then me surviving the morning is not idicative of anything. Your just gong to end up killing me on faulty logic.

I highly doubt that a Hider's action would resolve at the end of the day.