Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)


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Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 4:29 am

Post by Col.Cathart »

Votecount 4.3


With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

SaintKerrigan (1):
Cyberbob
charter (1):
Saint Kerrigan

not voting (4): Thor665, Steam-Powered Shovel, charter, MichelSableheart


The current deadline is:

Sunday, May 23 at 8PM GMT +1 time.
Countdown


Deadline in a week
[b]Mini 934[/b] is [b]over![/b] Thanks to everyone participating.

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Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 3:50 pm

Post by charter »

Ok, finally able to catch up. I'm not responding to any of Kerrigan's WIFOM defenses or 'no u' quotes, since they are just weak and don't accomplish anything, in an effort to minimize clutter.
K wrote:If a townie think someone is scum, the townie votes them, regardless of the scenario. Scum, on the other hand, have a tendency to hang back, to wait and see what the town thinks about their lynch candidate before casting a vote.
Well, aside from townies vote people they think are scum regardless of scenario not being correct, this is really hypocritical since you didn't vote for so long after you replaced in. So, regardless of scenario (you replacing in) you never voted until less than 24 hours before deadline even though you had suspects at the time!
K wrote:Then you aren't applying your standard of scumhunting equally to everyone.
Yes, I'm not. And your point is?
K wrote:Why not Cyberbob? He was one of your suspects, wasn't he? If not that, why not SPS, or Michel? Even if I'm your top suspect, there's no reason not to push your other suspects, which you haven't even tried to do so far.
Cyberbob for the same reason as Thor. SPS because I don't think he's a buddy with Fate. I am suspicious of Michel, but that case is almost the same as yours, the claim.
K wrote:The first part was dealt with in Post #1271 (which you have not bothered replying to)
Hmm, I must have deleted it, but I said that I was mistaken with my thinking of who was suspicious of you at the time. I had looked at the votecount right after you claimed and then Copper's post after where he had changed his mind.
Thor wrote:This is a valid point SK has raised and I'd like to hear your reasoning for this shift.
I've explained this like three times. Yesterday, I thought Pie was scum and Cyberbob looked like a juicy choice for his buddy. With Pie not being scum, that was a huge blow to my thinking Cyberbob was scum. Cyberbob's case was bad, his handling of Kerrigan's response was scummy, but if I can't find a scumteam that includes Cyberbob, then I'm not going to keep attacking Cyberbob.
K wrote: Both are aspects of scum opportunism
Yes, tunneling early and hard is a classic example of A) scum behavior and B) opportunistic play for scum. :roll: No, this isn't true at all.
SPS wrote:I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.
Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?
Michel wrote:It may be worth noting that I consider Gunsmith + my role vs 3 vanilla goons unlikely.
It's entirely possible Kerrigan is a tracker, but I don't see how he's a town tracker.
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Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 5:45 pm

Post by Thor665 »

charter wrote:
thor wrote:If the scum team is Michel/SK then it suggests that either we only had one PR (or that 1-3 of us who claimed vanilla all lied) which doesn't seem likely. Thoughts?
I've been in a game where I was the sole power role as town and it was much worse than a gunsmith (3 scum, 9 town). So a one power role game is certainly possible.
Doing some re-reading (trying to pretend I'm gleaning info while I'm at it).

This one jumped out at me a bit again and I think it needs more consideration. charter is claiming innocence on Cyberbob, Socrates, and myself (which is appreciated), and that really is leaving him at a scumteam of Kerrigan/Michel. I'm at least mentally ruling out half of that team at any point on the basic concept of game balance. A Gunsmith/3 scum/8 town build just seems highly unlikely to me. To my mind charter is either wrong in his conclusions or is scum having to twist around a bit since possible scumpairs are disappearing at this point.

I'm going to do some more re-reading - I want to re-read the day of Kerrigan's rolefish/accusation on me now that I'm more withdrawn from any pressure over it so I can look at who else was pressuring me and how. I also think I want to re-read the Day 2 lynch of Fate. I'll definitely get all that done within the next three days at which point I'm going to force myself to vote as I'll doubt I'll get any smarter after that.
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Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 5:58 pm

Post by SaintKerrigan »

SaintKerrigan wrote:Btw, has anyone else noticed that Cyberbob has done practically no scumhunting today? He votes me for a case he made yesterday (which I rebutted twice and he hasn't supported it since) and names Michel as my partner solely for scumbuddying without proving why our buddying is scum-motivated. In other words, he isn't doing anything except trying to push my lynch with little to no sufficient reasoning. If anyone can give me a town motivation for doing this, please do so, because I'm hard-pressed to think of anything town about this behavior.
Got no comments on this so far, and nothing has changed about Cyberbob since I wrote this. I'm really interested in what other people think about his behavior of today.
Charter wrote:I'm not responding to any of Kerrigan's WIFOM defenses
If by this you mean the second section of my Post #1273, I would like to ask how my presenting the chain of events in a town light is considered WIFOM while you presenting those same chain of events in a scum light is not.
Charter wrote:Well, aside from townies vote people they think are scum regardless of scenario not being correct, this is really hypocritical since you didn't vote for so long after you replaced in. So, regardless of scenario (you replacing in) you never voted until less than 24 hours before deadline even though you had suspects at the time!
Show me examples where a townie is strongly convinced that someone is scum and yet doesn't vote for them. As for the alleged "hypocrisy," I didn't vote for any of my suspects for a good while because I was not sure enough that any of my suspects were scum. Your case is different. Your belief that I'm scum is strong enough that you've cleared your previous suspects because you don't think they're scum with me. If I'm that scummy in your eyes, there is absolutely no reason why you shouldn't be voting me.
Charter wrote:Yes, I'm not. And your point is?
It sounds like a cop-out for explaining why a slot you once said was town is now considered scum.
Charter wrote:Cyberbob for the same reason as Thor. SPS because I don't think he's a buddy with Fate. I am suspicious of Michel, but that case is almost the same as yours, the claim.
Where's the Michel pressure, then? And this doesn't excuse you not pursuing your other suspects. Because, you know, you could
possibly
be wrong about your top suspect.
Charter wrote:Hmm, I must have deleted it, but I said that I was mistaken with my thinking of who was suspicious of you at the time. I had looked at the votecount right after you claimed and then Copper's post after where he had changed his mind.
This answer has no relevance to the part in Post #1271 I mentioned, which was talking about the first part of your case against me (namely, the claim). It's the second-to-last paragraph before my vote change in that post. Hopefully you can now provide a relevant response.
Charter wrote:Yes, tunneling early and hard is a classic example of A) scum behavior and B) opportunistic play for scum. No, this isn't true at all.
It's called "bussing," Charter. It comes in many shapes and sizes, and not always in easily recognizable form.
Charter wrote:It's entirely possible Kerrigan is a tracker, but I don't see how he's a town tracker.
So you think Gunsmith + Michel's role vs 2 goons + scum Tracker is plausible?
MichelSableheart wrote:I am inclined to clear Socrates. It's not just Fate's push at the beginning of day 2, but also CSL unexplained vote halfway through day 1, near the original deadline.
I could see CSL trying to pick up town cred by bussing his seemingly doomed scumbuddy. It wasn't really until that vote that the TCC wagon was checked, iirc. Personally, I wouldn't clear SPS just yet.

@ SPS: Why aren't you liking Charterscum or Cyberbobscum?
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Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 6:04 pm

Post by Cyberbob »

Thor: game balance is a really really dumb reason to make decisions on, hope this helps you with your mafia gaming :)
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Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 6:06 pm

Post by Cyberbob »

(it's dumb chiefly because of how unreliable our information is and also because of its dumbness)
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Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 10:46 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

SK wrote:Btw, has anyone else noticed that Cyberbob has done practically no scumhunting today? He votes me for a case he made yesterday (which I rebutted twice and he hasn't supported it since) and names Michel as my partner solely for scumbuddying without proving why our buddying is scum-motivated. In other words, he isn't doing anything except trying to push my lynch with little to no sufficient reasoning. If anyone can give me a town motivation for doing this, please do so, because I'm hard-pressed to think of anything town about this behavior.
It seems to me more laziness then anything. He didn't really have a reason to expand on his suspicions, because the only players who have actually questioned his suspicions yesterday are you and me, who he is actually suspicious of. The other players may have made remarks that his case wasn't very convincing, but haven't actually tried to get him to make a serious case.



Time to actually start doing that reread. I'll be mainly looking at the living players and their predecessors minus Rayfrost/SK and at Fate and her predecessors.

The first part of day 1 does not seem to hold much information. Thor is heavily pushing Ythan, Troll/Cyberbob is the first to vote TCC. TCC/SPS is continually posting V/LA without actually contributing anything, and Inquisitor/charter isn't doing much better.

The TCC wagon is really the first interesting point in this game. Inquisitor/charter was already voting him, Troll/Cyberbob starts it, Thor is the second to support it, and CSL/Fate joins it without explanation. I find the latter in particular to be a towntell for TCC/SPS, simply because if CSL wanted to distance, he probably would have provided a bit more reasoning.

Charter's #608 is an interesting replacing in post. Townreads on confirmed/likely scum, scumreads on confirmed/likely town. Later in #642 attacks Copper for defending TCC and attacking CSL.

Looking at the Pom wagon, Thor is the only player out of the potential scumcandidates who was actually pushing it. TCC was inactive, and both Troll/Cyberbob and Charter hopped on late to prevent a no lynch. Interesting to note is that Troll/Cyberbob calls the Pom wagon scumbait, while also mildly proposing a CSL lynch.



Having read day 1, I'm getting a town read on SPS. Furthermore, Charter is starting to look slightly more suspicious then Cyberbob.
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Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Sun May 16, 2010 11:01 pm

Post by Steam-Powered Shovel »

charter wrote:
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.
Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?
Process of elimination. I don't particularly think you're scum (note that the other two pairings I mentioned don't include you) but Thor-charter is the pairing that would make me the least wrong out of all the pairings.
SaintKerrigan wrote:
SaintKerrigan wrote:Btw, has anyone else noticed that Cyberbob has done practically no scumhunting today? He votes me for a case he made yesterday (which I rebutted twice and he hasn't supported it since) and names Michel as my partner solely for scumbuddying without proving why our buddying is scum-motivated. In other words, he isn't doing anything except trying to push my lynch with little to no sufficient reasoning. If anyone can give me a town motivation for doing this, please do so, because I'm hard-pressed to think of anything town about this behavior.
Got no comments on this so far, and nothing has changed about Cyberbob since I wrote this. I'm really interested in what other people think about his behavior of today.
I'm fairly sure I've played similarly as town. If you're convinced you've found scum, you tend to do less scumhunting.

Do you have a tendency to be OMGUSy, SaintKerrigan?
SK wrote:@ SPS: Why aren't you liking Charterscum or Cyberbobscum?
Interactions with Fate and gut respectively, as I mentioned earlier.
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Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 5:20 am

Post by SaintKerrigan »

@ Michel: That was part of the point of asking people's opinions on Cyberbob's behavior, so I could see what other people think about it (because honestly I'm surprised there hasn't been any remarks about it).
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I'm fairly sure I've played similarly as town. If you're convinced you've found scum, you tend to do less scumhunting.
It's not just that he's not doing scumhunting. He's not doing scumhunting
and
he's intentionally not defending his single case against the counterpoints I have raised to it.
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:Do you have a tendency to be OMGUSy, SaintKerrigan?
This is the first game I've seriously been accused of OMGUSy play. However, I don't think any of my cases against people are OMGUS at all. If you want me to elaborate on something specific, I can.
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Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 6:02 am

Post by Cyberbob »

SaintKerrigan wrote:This is the first game I've seriously been accused of OMGUSy play. However, I don't think any of my cases against people are OMGUS at all. If you want me to elaborate on something specific, I can.
lol
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Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 9:56 am

Post by charter »

Thor, you're falling in to the setup speculation trap which almost always burns the town. You don't even know what Michel claims his role is. What if only one person of the mafia can make kills? What if the mafia has lovers or something or is crippled in some way. You're assuming three goons, but you don't know if that's the case or what.
Kerrigan wrote:If by this you mean the second section of my Post #1273, I would like to ask how my presenting the chain of events in a town light is considered WIFOM while you presenting those same chain of events in a scum light is not.
You're asking me why scum is acting how they are. If you don't see how that's WIFOM, then I can't help you. The WIFOM is you asking me what I think scum would do.
K wrote:Show me examples where a townie is strongly convinced that someone is scum and yet doesn't vote for them. As for the alleged "hypocrisy," I didn't vote for any of my suspects for a good while because I was not sure enough that any of my suspects were scum. Your case is different. Your belief that I'm scum is strong enough that you've cleared your previous suspects because you don't think they're scum with me. If I'm that scummy in your eyes, there is absolutely no reason why you shouldn't be voting me.
Any game in LYLO you will have townies not voting.
K wrote:So you think Gunsmith + Michel's role vs 2 goons + scum Tracker is plausible?
Well, without knowing MIchel's role, it's hard to say, but I don't think MIchel can be town, but I do think a gunsmith can be the only town power role.
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Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 10:25 am

Post by SaintKerrigan »

Charter wrote:You're asking me why scum is acting how they are. If you don't see how that's WIFOM, then I can't help you. The WIFOM is you asking me what I think scum would do.
So if it's WIFOM for me to speculate why scum would behave as they have with me as town, why isn't it WIFOM for you to speculate why scum would behave as they have with me as scum?
Charter wrote:Any game in LYLO you will have townies not voting.
Of course you'll find townies not voting in Lylo. That's not what I asked. Do you have examples of townies that are utterly convinced that someone is scum and still withhold their vote?
Charter wrote:but I don't think MIchel can be town
Does this mean you don't think Michel is town? If so, why haven't you been pressuring him?
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Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 12:17 pm

Post by Steam-Powered Shovel »

Remember that Newbie we played in briefly, SK? I went after your slot and then you replaced in and went after me. I'm getting a similar vibe from the way you behave towards Cyberbob and charter. I'm essentially thinking that you're OMGUSy but unaware of it, which would constitute weak evidence for you being town.
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Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 12:22 pm

Post by SaintKerrigan »

@ SPS: If you think my cases are OMGUS, then that means you disagree, at least mostly, with the issues I've raised against Charter and Cyberbob. I know you've spoken a bit about Cyberbob, but what is your perspective on the issues I have brought up with those two?
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Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Mon May 17, 2010 11:24 pm

Post by Steam-Powered Shovel »

It's not really that I disagree with them, it's more that I find them unconvincing and open to interpretation.
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Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:11 am

Post by SaintKerrigan »

@ SPS: How so?
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Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:48 am

Post by Thor665 »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:
charter wrote:
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.
Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?
Process of elimination. I don't particularly think you're scum (note that the other two pairings I mentioned don't include you) but Thor-charter is the pairing that would make me the least wrong out of all the pairings.
What is it that makes charter my partner and Cyberbob SK's partner. Why is it not likely for the pairs to be Thor/Cyberbob and SK/charter?
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Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 7:00 am

Post by Steam-Powered Shovel »

SaintKerrigan wrote:@ SPS: How so?
Take for example your point about him not voting. The argument is not unreasonable an sich, maybe he should be voting and maybe it is out of the ordinary, but I don't see how that makes him scum. I don't see the benefit of the action for scum and I don't believe townies are more likely to vote early in Lylo (although I could see them as being more likely to place the first vote). I think his non-voting tells us something about charter, not about his alignment.
Thor665 wrote:
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:
charter wrote:
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.
Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?
Process of elimination. I don't particularly think you're scum (note that the other two pairings I mentioned don't include you) but Thor-charter is the pairing that would make me the least wrong out of all the pairings.
What is it that makes charter my partner and Cyberbob SK's partner. Why is it not likely for the pairs to be Thor/Cyberbob and SK/charter?
I find Cyberbob townier than charter, so that's why I prefer charter in a scum pair. There were 2 quotes I brought up earlier in post 1294 which I felt constituted strong evidence against a SK-charter pairing.
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Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 7:43 am

Post by Thor665 »

@charter
@Cyberbob

How does your SK = scum case justify Fate's pressure on the SK wagon Day 2?

Here's where he hopped on

Third person on the bus. No real pressure on himself yet. Actually has to re-clarify himself that he didn't mean Pie but rather SK on some earlier stated suspicions.
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Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 9:26 am

Post by SaintKerrigan »

@ SPS: For that particular part of my case, the issue isn't that he's not voting. It's that he's not voting for me when he's pretty much declared that I'm scum (as evidenced by ruling out his previous suspects because he doesn't see them as my scumbuddies). When you're that sure you've found scum as town, there is absolutely no reason for withholding your vote. Scum, on the other hand, will sometimes refrain from voting on their false case in order to keep their options open and ensure that the town is comfortable with the false case. One of my responses to Charter included an example of this.
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Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 9:52 am

Post by Steam-Powered Shovel »

But it doesn't appear to me that he's keeping his options open. If charter were to vote for anyone other than you, he'd have to come up with some seriously good reasoning for me not to be suspicious of him. And he could still switch if he had voted for you. I agree with you that it's odd, but I disagree that there's a scum motive.

Can we drop this now? I can tell it's not going anywhere.
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Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 10:51 am

Post by SaintKerrigan »

The example I gave was in Post #1273. Other than suggesting you read the example, I don't know what else I can say to show you why I think the behavior is scummy rather than odd.
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Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 1:34 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

I'm terribly sorry, but I have run out of time again. It's 2.30 am for me now, and tomorrow will be just a normal day.

I realize that I am giving this game not nearly the amount of time it deserves. I hope to be able to finish my reread before the game day is over, though.
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Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 1:53 pm

Post by charter »

K wrote:So if it's WIFOM for me to speculate why scum would behave as they have with me as town, why isn't it WIFOM for you to speculate why scum would behave as they have with me as scum?
What the hell are you talking about? If you're scum then there's no WIFOM, what's happening is happening because you're scum. There's no option of guessing what scum would do. If you're scum, then obviously you're going to live through the night.
K wrote:Do you have examples of townies that are utterly convinced that someone is scum and still withhold their vote?
I'm sure I've seen it, but I'm not going to go looking through games to find examples. How the hell can it be scummy to be not voting? It's really obvious I think you're scum, so if I all of a sudden change and vote Cyberbob, then that's going to be scummy. Whether I was voting you before or not. That's basically what you did, after I said I was suspicious of you.
K wrote:Does this mean you don't think Michel is town? If so, why haven't you been pressuring him?
Because no one is interested in lynching him. This game is already a drain, I don't have the time/energy to reread and make another case when his fate is tied in with yours.
Thor665 wrote:@charter
@Cyberbob

How does your SK = scum case justify Fate's pressure on the SK wagon Day 2?

Here's where he hopped on

Third person on the bus. No real pressure on himself yet. Actually has to re-clarify himself that he didn't mean Pie but rather SK on some earlier stated suspicions.
It was a really weak vote. If you notice how much he pushed SK before he claimed when he was a viable target versus how much he pushed SK after when he wasn't a viable target, the difference is quite profound. In that post he even listed three people he'd be willing to lynch, so it's not like he didn't leave his options wide open. To me it just looks like a really crappy bus attempt.
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SaintKerrigan
SaintKerrigan
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SaintKerrigan
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Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 2:20 pm

Post by SaintKerrigan »

Charter wrote:What the hell are you talking about? If you're scum then there's no WIFOM, what's happening is happening because you're scum. There's no option of guessing what scum would do. If you're scum, then obviously you're going to live through the night.
This is getting jumbled up. Let me try to explain my point another way: How does my claim and it's associated actions make me scum?

Why aren't you voting me?
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