Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Thor, who are you most suspicious of?

if SK is telling the truth, then there's also a scum roleblocker, which means the no-result is fairly significant.

Wait, so you aren't talking the Night 1 track of Pie but rather the Night 2 roleblock claim of Kerrigan? I was discussing the current cases which were Cyberbob's on Kerrigan and Mine on Pie and also Pie's general outlook. I linked to the cases in question so you could read them in the original poster's language, why would I mention Kerrigan being roleblocked when I was listing my own case on Pie, and whether or not Cyberbob discussed Kerrigan's roleblock claim (which actually I think he did) would be inside his case on her, why should I mention it specifically when linking to his case?

No. I was talking about the Night 1 track. It's just that the amount of actions scum undertake is obviously relevant to the interpretation of said track result.

I have no trouble with Michel not claiming.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Also, I'm a little behind on reading due to some internet problems (this shouldn't be a problem for the future), so I only just reached the Fate-lynch. I tend to think post 979 (wherein Michel votes Fate and mongers support) is good evidence for Michel being town, but otherwise it's damn hard to get useful information out of this type of deadline lynch since reasoning becomes fairly irrelevant.

Next day, SK tries to get Thor to claim his night action. I like Thor's response here; SK has no business asking that question considering the amount of suspicion she's under. If Thor had told SK his action, SKscum could claim it to be truthful and then claim a guilty result Today, thereby avoiding having to claim to be roleblocked.

Additionally, if we assume SK is town, then what does SK expect to gain here? If Thor's scum, he would know about the roleblock (it would be a horrible play for a town roleblocker to block SK, so the roleblocker's scum. And 2 investigative roles does suggest scum roleblocker.), so wouldn't be fooled. If Thor's town, she potentially outs a power role.

[SaintKerrigan]

(sigh) So I try to do something to get some use out of my role other than claim I'm roleblocked, and it gets decried as a bad idea. Next time I'm just going to flat-out say I'm roleblocked, because trying to do something helpful is apparently not appreciated.

[Cyberbob]

Since when was lying and rolefishing ever remotely helpful?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

What he said.

I finished my read and my initial list (SK>Thor>chamber=Cyberbob>MichelSableheart) is still a fairly accurate representation of my suspicions, but chamber and Cyberbob I now slight town reads on. However, I don't like Thor-SK as a scum pair, which makes me pretty unsure about what to think.

[Thor665]

Could I ask where you're getting town reads on chamber and Cyberbob from?

[charter]

I'm trying to do these hypothetical setups in my head. Michel definitely needs to claim today so we have the final piece of the puzzle.

I still believe that the information gained by the town from me claiming at this time is not enough to outweigh the significant disadvantages of me claiming.

Well, I don't. If we don't lynch correctly today then it's game over and your role provides no information, so you need to claim today.

I'm Charter, I don't think Chamber is in this game...

I'm rereading right now, but the site is giving me lip.

[Thor665]

I'm Charter, I don't think Chamber is in this game..

...um...well he's in the wonderful game I'm playing in my head. Yes. (I covered that up pretty well)

What's your big deal about wanting Michel to claim? Theoretically if he had information to help us he would claim that info in lylo, and unless you think he's scum there's not much point to barking up that tree. Are you advancing a Michelscum theory? He wasn't on your previous top suspects.

[charter]

Alright, what I found in my reread.

Kerrigan comes in and doesn't say much. He has a fairly long back and forth with Pie about the in's and out's of massclaiming, mostly it looks like he's trying to argue with Pie.

877 is very interesting. Thor brings up the possibility of a roleblocker. Maybe Kerrigan ran with this when he was run up to a claim.

Judging by Cyberbob's thoughts after replacing in and how they meshed very similarly with mine and how as soon as Cyberbob votes Fate and Fate immediately OMGUSes him, I am pretty certain Cyberbob isn't scum with Fate.

Actually, Kerrigan really does very little scumhunting and seems to claim before it was really warranted. I am pretty sure that he was in zero danger of actually being lynched looking at 964 which is right after he claimed, now that I go back and look. I wasn't going to vote him, Michel wasn't, Copper wasn't, Socrates said he would only to prevent a no lynch.

Rereading day two, Kerrigan was voted because he was just doing back and forths with people. He didn't really look for scum, he looked like he was just posting to post. Then his claim.

As far as who is his buddy, I've ruled out Cyberbob. Thor actually looks like a pretty implausible Kerrigan buddy after rereading as well. I was about tied between whether it was Michel or Socrates. There were things that pointed towards both of them.

This ended up taking hours since I wasn't doing it straight through, so I'll elaborate more tomorrow.

[charter]

What's your big deal about wanting Michel to claim? Theoretically if he had information to help us he would claim that info in lylo, and unless you think he's scum there's not much point to barking up that tree. Are you advancing a Michelscum theory? He wasn't on your previous top suspects.

If there's three scum, then today is Lylo. Michel wasn't one of my suspects, but now I'm finding myself suspecting him because I've ruled out everyone else.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, I can't remember if I asked you about this before, but what is your opinion on the idea of Charterscum tunneling his scumbuddy Fate?

Fate didn't have any votes on him when Charter voted. I could see him make that vote as distancing, with the intention to switch away later. When he made post #965, a Fate lynch still didn't look extremely likely. I don't really see Charter tunneling on Fate (he was investigating others), so I think his vote of Fate could be distancing.

Well, I don't. If we don't lynch correctly today then it's game over and your role provides no information, so you need to claim today.

And give up our only chance of winning if we mislynch, when my claim doesn't do anything to help prevent said mislynch? I thought not. SK is town, therefore scum has a roleblocker. I'm not going to tell them how they should use it.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Could I ask where you're getting town reads on chamber and Cyberbob from?

Interactions with Fate and gut respectively.

I'm Charter, I don't think Chamber is in this game...

Which is a damn shame. chamber and I were scumchat buddies back in the day. At least I got your gender right.

I like charter's latest 2 posts.

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 4.2

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

Cyberbob (1):

Saint Kerrigan

SaintKerrigan (1):

Cyberbob

not voting (4): Thor665, Steam-Powered Shovel, charter, MichelSableheart


The current deadline is:

Sunday, May 23 at 8PM GMT +1 time.
Countdown

[Thor665]

If there's three scum, then today is Lylo. Michel wasn't one of my suspects, but now I'm finding myself suspecting him because I've ruled out everyone else.

Personally I'm going with a three scum setup since that is pretty normal for games this size and also because, personally, I think Col.Cathart basically said as much in his story post to start the day.

If you're going with Michelscum as a possibility then doesn't the rest of the scum team pretty much have to be SK, as otherwise I can't figure out why Michel would have led the charge on Fate Day 2.

If the scum team is Michel/SK then it suggests that either we only had one PR (or that 1-3 of us who claimed vanilla all lied) which doesn't seem likely. Thoughts?

[SaintKerrigan]

Charter, you didn't elaborate on your reads on Thor and Cyberbob, unless you ruling them out as my scumbuddies is doing that?

877 is very interesting. Thor brings up the possibility of a roleblocker. Maybe Kerrigan ran with this when he was run up to a claim.

Seriously, Charter?

Actually, Kerrigan really does very little scumhunting and seems to claim before it was really warranted. I am pretty sure that he was in zero danger of actually being lynched looking at 964 which is right after he claimed, now that I go back and look. I wasn't going to vote him, Michel wasn't, Copper wasn't, Socrates said he would only to prevent a no lynch.

I was still in the process of trying to catch up with the game, which makes it hard for me to do much pushing unless new information comes up. As for the claim, it was less than 24 hours before deadline, and the lynch wagon seemed to be rolling my way. Because of this, I decided to claim at L-2. If I wait until L-1 to claim, it'll likely be too late for anything good to come out of it. Respectfully, I feel that you are wrong, and that claiming when I did was warranted.

With regards to saying I wasn't in any danger of a lynch, I disagree. Of the people you listed, before my claim you did not have a stated opinion of me at that time (so I didn't know where you stood on me) and Copper listed me as one of his lynches. It was only after my claim that Copper decided against lynching me, and you stated that you found my claim suspicious, but would stick with a Fate-lynch. You also failed to mention Cyberbob, who had me as a second suspect to Fate

and who stated before my claim that he was willing to lynch me to prevent a no-lynch.

As for everyone else, well, they were voting me.

Thus, right before I claimed, I had four votes on me, someone who was willing to vote me to prevent a no-lynch, someone who had me as a lynch option, someone who didn't have a stated opinion on me, and only two people who were disinclined to lynch me. Add all that up, and we have at least two more potential votes in my direction, which makes six and a mislynch. And you think my claim was unwarranted?

What things point towards Michel or Socrates as scumbuddies with me and Fate?

Hmm, something's worrying me about you, Charter. You claimed you had town vibes from RayFrost on Day 1-2, and you stated no real opinion of me other than on my claim on Day 2. On Day 3 you took my side of the SK-Thor debate, said I wasn't likely a scumbuddy with Fate, and called Cyberbob's case against me crappy. All in all, this is looking like a pretty positive outlook on me. Now we're on Day 4 and in potential Lylo, and all of a sudden you come out with considerable suspicions against someone you only had one bad thing to say about before, who just happens to be drawing the most overall suspicion from the remaining players. I've somehow even made first on your suspect list. Despite arguing against Thor on Day 3, you've suddenly demoted him to a secondary place on your suspect list, and the person whose case on me you called "crappy" and his refusal to answer my rebuttal "ultra scummy," he is now third place on your suspect list. The reason why I beat out these people? "Kerrigan's claim is overshadowing a lot of other people's scumminess in my head right now." I mean, seriously? The possibility that I'm fakeclaiming scum is the only reason I'm more suspicious than everyone else? This just sounds fake and baloney. I dismantled your supporting reasons earlier in this post, and they were terrible as well.

I think I really need to reconsider my town stance on you, because this just looks way too opportunistic an argument to be coming from town.

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOP

Correcting a paragraph.

With regards to saying I wasn't in any danger of a lynch, I disagree. Of the people you listed, before my claim you did not have a stated opinion of me at that time (so I didn't know where you stood on me) and Copper listed me as one of his lynches. It was only after my claim that Copper decided against lynching me, and you stated that you found my claim suspicious, but would stick with a Fate-lynch. You also failed to mention Cyberbob, who had me as a second suspect to Fate and who stated before my claim that he was willing to lynch me to prevent a no-lynch. As for everyone else

(other than Michel and Socrates)

, well, they were voting me.

[SaintKerrigan]

Mod, please fix the quote tag in my last post and the first quote in the post before that, and then delete this post.

[Cyberbob]

The SK tradition of OMGUSing the hell out of all and sundry lives on~

[charter]

If you're going with Michelscum as a possibility then doesn't the rest of the scum team pretty much have to be SK, as otherwise I can't figure out why Michel would have led the charge on Fate Day 2.

Michel most definitely didn't lead any charge against Fate day two. He is always talking about Pie and barely mentions Fate until after Kerrigan's claim where he says

I would prefer not to lynch SK today. I'm willing to switch to Fate to guarantee a deadline lynch, but I'm not a fan of that. I still believe Pie is the best lynch for today.

The he switches to Fate pretty much to save Kerrigan.

If the scum team is Michel/SK then it suggests that either we only had one PR (or that 1-3 of us who claimed vanilla all lied) which doesn't seem likely. Thoughts?

I've been in a game where I was the sole power role as town and it was much worse than a gunsmith (3 scum, 9 town). So a one power role game is certainly possible.

Charter, you didn't elaborate on your reads on Thor and Cyberbob, unless you ruling them out as my scumbuddies is doing that?

Yeah. I think they're both probably town since I'm going with you as scum and I don't think either of them is likely to be your buddy. I don't see Cyberbob as being Fate's scumbuddy either, though I can see Thor as Fate's buddy for reasons mentioned previously.

Ok, I didn't realize that Copper was pro Kerrigan lynch before your claim and then switched after you claimed. I was looking at the votecount right after you claimed since it was right there, and Copper had a post where he said something like 'I'm not in favor of a Kerrigan lynch' or something similar. So I suppose you were in danger of being lynched, though the fact that you claimed when you thought you could be lynched really has nothing to do with why I suspect you. Odd that it's the thing you spend the most time defending.

What things point towards Michel or Socrates as scumbuddies with me and Fate?

I will be elaborating on this later tonight.

Hmm, something's worrying me about you, Charter. You claimed you had town vibes from RayFrost on Day 1-2, and you stated no real opinion of me other than on my claim on Day 2. On Day 3 you took my side of the SK-Thor debate, said I wasn't likely a scumbuddy with Fate, and called Cyberbob's case against me crappy.

Of like the five Rayfrost posts I read, one had legit scumhunting, which is something I'm not sure I've seen from him before, so I wrote him off as town based on that. I thought yesterday that scum was Pie and Thor, but that's obviously not true, so I had to go back and reevaluate. I'm not going to keep going 'Thor is scum, look at Pie!'. Cyberbob's case against you was crappy, but that doesn't mean you're not scum.

It's like I've been kept alive because I thought you were town, but now that I'm changing that, you all of a sudden don't like me any more. Now you're trying to tell me I'm supposed to be suspicious of Thor because I was before. Like Pie being town is supposed to have no bearing on my thoughts.

The possibility that I'm fakeclaiming scum is the only reason I'm more suspicious than everyone else?

I'm saying your claim is so unbelievably convenient that I don't believe it. Had you claimed vanilla, you would have been lynched and we wouldn't be having this debate, but your claim of Tracker saved you (and I think that's the sole reason you're still alive). Generally when someone claims a power role and they don't get NK'ed, guess what. They're scum.

[Col.Cathart]

Mod, please fix the quote tag in my last post

and the first quote in the post before that

, and then delete this post.

What's the problem with it? I don't see anything.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Mod: I accidentally hit enter in the middle of a quote from Charter, so instead of looking like this:

877 is very interesting. Thor brings up the possibility of a roleblocker. Maybe Kerrigan ran with this when he was run up to a claim.

-it looks like this:

877 is very interesting. Thor brings up the possibility of a r
oleblocker. Maybe Kerrigan ran with this when he was run up to a claim.

I'd like it fixed so the quote in that post resembles the first quote in this post.

K, fixed. - Cathart

[SaintKerrigan]

I've been in a game where I was the sole power role as town and it was much worse than a gunsmith (3 scum, 9 town). So a one power role game is certainly possible.

Ok, after reading Kerrigan's rebuttal to Cyberbob's case, I must say, his case is really poor.

Particularly Kerrigan's point about him or Michel is likely to be town just so the setup is balanced.

It kind of negates the scummatude of his shoddy claim.

Changing stories to fit your need, eh? The last sentence of the second quote is interesting, too.

Yeah. I think they're both probably town since I'm going with you as scum and I don't think either of them is likely to be your buddy. I don't see Cyberbob as being Fate's scumbuddy either, though I can see Thor as Fate's buddy for reasons mentioned previously.

So if I'm so positively scum that you're ruling people town because they aren't likely my buddies, then why don't I have your vote, yet? This is a

major

scumtell, in my opinion.

So I suppose you were in danger of being lynched, though the fact that you claimed when you thought you could be lynched really has nothing to do with why I suspect you. Odd that it's the thing you spend the most time defending.

Even though you tried to paint things as if I had no good town reason for claiming when I did? You said I had "zero reason" to claim when I did, I showed that I had very good reason to claim when I did. Now you're trying to imply that my defense against the accusation that my claim wasn't warranted is scummy by saying it was "odd" that I spent as much time defending it as I did.

Of like the five Rayfrost posts I read, one had legit scumhunting, which is something I'm not sure I've seen from him before, so I wrote him off as town based on that.

Sorry, but I don't buy this. If one single scumhunting post makes RayFrost town, all the things you said in favor of me yesterday should damn well make me town.

I thought yesterday that scum was Pie and Thor, but that's obviously not true, so I had to go back and reevaluate.

Yeah, but your reevaluation came back with a new top suspect and a pardoning for someone you thought was scum yesterday not because of anything new he'd posted, but because he couldn't be partners with your top suspect. In order for that to work, you need damn good evidence that your new suspect is scum.

Cyberbob's case against you was crappy, but that doesn't mean you're not scum.

You also called Cyberbob "ultra scummy" for not answering my rebuttal. Yesterday you have him scummier than me, and today you've pardoned him because he can't be my partner? Again, you need a damn good reason to call me scum.

t's like I've been kept alive because I thought you were town, but now that I'm changing that, you all of a sudden don't like me any more.

This

is so blatantly scummy it hurts my eyes to read it. Now that I'm turning the heat in your direction, you insinuate that I'm doing this solely because you're putting pressure on me and not because the issues I'm addressing are legitimate. In other words, you're trying to discredit me.

Now you're trying to tell me I'm supposed to be suspicious of Thor because I was before. Like Pie being town is supposed to have no bearing on my thoughts.

There's no reason for you to not suspect Thor, other than your claim that he can't be my scumpartner. Pie's flip does not suddenly mean all your thoughts about Thor were wrong.

I'm saying your claim is so unbelievably convenient that I don't believe it. Had you claimed vanilla, you would have been lynched and we wouldn't be having this debate, but your claim of Tracker saved you (and I think that's the sole reason you're still alive). Generally when someone claims a power role and they don't get NK'ed, guess what. They're scum.

This is your case for my scumhood. The idea that my actions

could

be interpreted from a scum point of view? Cases are not made out of speculation like this, Charter. Especially not cases that boost someone to the top of the suspect list without any other supporting evidence.

This opportunistic shift is certainly strong enough to negate my belief that you wouldn't tunnel on your scumbuddy. After all, if you can change your opinion on me like this, bussing a scumbuddy is hardly something you'd shy away from.

Unvote: Cyberbob. Vote: Charter.

I'm still highly suspicious of Cyberbob, but Charter is way too scummy right now for me to ignore.

[charter]

Well, your vote on me is just OMGUS. I said some things that you didn't like because they involved you being scum and you just spin that in to charter must be scum. It's laughable.

Changing stories to fit your need, eh? The last sentence of the second quote is interesting, too.

Changing my mind as you keep living through the night.

So if I'm so positively scum that you're ruling people town because they aren't likely my buddies, then why don't I have your vote, yet? This is a major scumtell, in my opinion.

How is not voting immediately in LYLO scummy? If you're accusing me of "major scumtells" that aren't obvious (or in this case made up) you generally explain why it's scummy.

Sorry, but I don't buy this. If one single scumhunting post makes RayFrost town, all the things you said in favor of me yesterday should damn well make me town.

You're not Rayfrost. I don't write off everyone who makes one good post.

Yeah, but your reevaluation came back with a new top suspect and a pardoning for someone you thought was scum yesterday not because of anything new he'd posted, but because he couldn't be partners with your top suspect. In order for that to work, you need damn good evidence that your new suspect is scum.

Ok, I already explained how Pie not being scum changed my thinking. Pie not being scum means that if Thor is, there's another scum out there. I don't see who that would be, so I rule Thor out.

You also called Cyberbob "ultra scummy" for not answering my rebuttal. Yesterday you have him scummier than me, and today you've pardoned him because he can't be my partner? Again, you need a damn good reason to call me scum.

Your claim.
How you spent most of day two arguing with people but not scumhunting.


Once again, your vote on me is laughable. I say I think you're scum and then YOU contradict a lot of what you've said to call me scum. The double standard you're applying here is ridiculous.

Basically you've OMGUSed Pie, then Cyberbob, now me. You claimed Tracker when pressured and you're not dying at night. Scum.

[SaintKerrigan]

Well, your vote on me is just OMGUS. I said some things that you didn't like because they involved you being scum and you just spin that in to charter must be scum. It's laughable.

Well, of course you'd claim it's OMGUS. That would make my case look bad, wouldn't it? If people look honestly at my case, however, they'll see that it is hardly OMGUS. (I'd try to convince you and Cyberbob, but I doubt you guys would listen.)

Changing my mind as you keep living through the night.

If scum has a roleblocker (and they do), why wouldn't they roleblock me and keep me alive? It just makes me an excellent mislynch opportunity.

How is not voting immediately in LYLO scummy? If you're accusing me of "major scumtells" that aren't obvious (or in this case made up) you generally explain why it's scummy.

It has nothing to do with this being Mylo. It has to do with considering someone to be scum and yet not voting them. If a townie think someone is scum, the townie votes them, regardless of the scenario. Scum, on the other hand, have a tendency to hang back, to wait and see what the town thinks about their lynch candidate before casting a vote. Need an example? Newbie #842, Day 4, Lylo, Archaebob. Classic example.

You're not Rayfrost. I don't write off everyone who makes one good post.

Then you aren't applying your standard of scumhunting equally to everyone.

Ok, I already explained how Pie not being scum changed my thinking. Pie not being scum means that if Thor is, there's another scum out there. I don't see who that would be, so I rule Thor out.

Why not Cyberbob? He was one of your suspects, wasn't he? If not that, why not SPS, or Michel? Even if I'm your top suspect, there's no reason not to push your other suspects, which you haven't even tried to do so far.

Your claim.
How you spent most of day two arguing with people but not scumhunting.

The first part was dealt with in Post #1271 (which you have not bothered replying to), and the second part was dealt with in Post #1264 (in the beginning of the third paragraph). I would like anyone who considers these two reasons a strong enough case to call me scum to explain why they think that way, because I just can't see a legitimate case in there.

Also, you didn't think I was OMGUSing Cyberbob yesterday when I was rebutting his case against me.

[Cyberbob]

So. Many. Quotes.