Left 4 Dead Mafia - Day 6?

[jmj3000]

Discuss.

[ReaperCharlie]

... I thought that Dizzy (supposedly) had them

already

and was able to GIVE them to someone else tomorrow morning.

I don't see your point jmj 0_o

[jmj3000]

She has to survive through the night to give them at the start of the day, correct? The pills make it where it takes an extra vote to lynch someone, which would make it harder for scum to secure that mislynch. Yet, Dizzy doesn't seem too worried about dying tonight.

[almightybob]

The person

[who receives the item]

is decided upon immediately after the 25% have gone for the item.

- Should scum destroy an item, it would resolve immediately, the same time that a town-aligned player would receive the item PM.

Please keep up jmj.

[jmj3000]

If she is scum, she would be told what that item does, so she could still fakeclaim getting the item if she was scum, and we wouldn't know.

[Amished]

I think Izzy is banking on the fact a medkit and? a defib dropped (maybe only the medkit, I haven't kept up with that); one of which would probably act as a doc protect.

Course, that draws a potential PR action; but it would also confirm a townie (like a one-shot cop at that point, so it'd be worth it in my opinion). Also, keep in mind that I have a strong town read on Izzy.

[ReaperCharlie]

FWIW I have a split read on Dizzy, either strong town or strong scum. lol I know this is of no help but I figured I'd throw it out there.

jmj, I still fail to see how your suggestion could break Dizzy's plan.

Amished, yes, there was a defibrillator dropped by the mod at some point. I don't recall who grabbed for it.

[crypto]

How can you have a strong read both ways?

[Amished]

Reaper, how do you feel about Starbuck?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Actually, after looking at how much time we have left until deadline, I am going to point out the flaw I have been talking about, using Dizzy's own posts to reinforce it. The first time I noticed the flaw was in post 1319:

Incidently... I noticed upon re-reading the PM in order to ensure I was claiming them correctly that according to the role PM,

they can be used at the start of each day.

I have PMed the mod to see if this means I would have to wait until the next day would start, because if so, it would mean there would be no concern with town losing them if I die tonight.

The next time I noticed the glaring flaw in her plan was in here next post, post 1323:

Ugh, apparently I'm not allowed to use them on myself, but the mod has confirmed that they're

used at the start of the day

, thus ensuring that using my plan, the town gets the back if I die tonight. So really, there's no reason to not attempt to pull of my plan to clear myself.

The next time, and final time I have noticed the flaw, is in post 1354:

Really now? There are two flaws: One, the one I mentioned, but I still don't feel comfortable flat out saying, and 2) the scum can kill the person you would be giving the pills to. If y'all still can't see it in a little while, then I will go ahead and say it.

I don't give them the pills until *after* the night phase

, so if there's a shortlist generated that's long enough to ensure that at least one of them will survive scum night kills, it's fine.

Bolding in all three quotes done by me to emphasize what I have seen. Dizzy is assuming a lot that she is going to survive through the night, especially considering she could screw up a scum mislynch if she is really town and can toughen someone up enough where it takes an extra vote to lynch. All three of those posts say the pills are given after the night phase, so why claim you got them now and not wait until after you have given the pills? Sounds like scum throwing out an item claim to stop a lynch on them.

...that's it? That's your fatal flaw?

a) If I die tonight, the pills can come back into play. There's no loss for the town in the situation other than a town player, when there'd likely be at least one townie killed by scum tonight anyway so the fact that it's me, when I don't have any power role other than the pills which will come back into play, doesn't adversely affect that town and may actually protect someone who has a powerole from being killed.

b) If I die tonight, there's a reasonable chance that both scum factions will target me, thus reducing the number of scum controlled kills by one.

c) Conversely, there's a chance that both scum factions may take the chance that the other will kill me, meaning I survive.

d) There's a medkit in play and a defibrilator, plus there are pro-town power-roles. If townies have those items or powers, then if the townies are smart, I'll be protected from NKs.

Really, the absolute worst case scenario is that the defibrilator grants the powers of a CPR Doctor (a Doc that kills the patient if they're not targeted by a killing action) which targets me and the two scum factions decide not to target me, meaning three townies die tonight, but that would be seriously unlucky (and would be easy to avoid...).

[DizzyIzzyB13]

FWIW I have a split read on Dizzy, either strong town or strong scum. lol I know this is of no help but I figured I'd throw it out there.

jmj, I still fail to see how your suggestion could break Dizzy's plan.

Amished, yes, there was a defibrillator dropped by the mod at some point. I don't recall who grabbed for it.

Dramonic, Starbuck and jmj.

[ReaperCharlie]

How can you have a strong read both ways?

My split read means that if she IS scum, she's really scummy and good at playing scum, because she

seems

pretty town. I have a gut scum read on her, but logic forces me to believe she's town. Take from this what you will; I'm just being honest that I don't have a definitive read on her at this point.

Reaper, how do you feel about Starbuck?

She seemed pretty eager to lynch Dizzy, and was extremely active at that point up until the events of thatguy00's lynch, but has since faded back into the woodwork.

This makes me believe she is either scum that was trying to pull a gambit and is now trying to fade back into the woodwork (I have done this myself, and it has worked rather nicely, since as I always say: "Once the seed of doubt is planted, tis mighty hard to uproot."), OR, she is town and thinks that having pushed that hard, she just made herself look guilty. And now she's trying not to get lynched for being too vehement in her attacks on Dizzy, and even though she

may

still want Dizzy dead, it is obvious that she doesn't want to

appear

like she still wants Dizzy dead. The events leading up to Starbuck's

post 1330

may have just been a good excuse for her to unvote.

I realize that most of my post is speculation and is practically useless, but I guess it's just my way of making my thought process known to everyone. That's normally what I do in games: think out loud and hope someone else thought the same thing as me.

Anyone see where I'm coming from?

[Starbuck]

I love how you don't take into account that maybe I'm not sure who could be scum now, if not Dizzy.

I am very skeptical of Dizzy, and I won't believe her until she shows us just what she can do. The only reason I unvoted is because I'm willing to trust those I have a town read on.

[ReaperCharlie]

I love

how

you

don't take into account that maybe I'm not sure who could be scum now, if not Dizzy.

Aww I love you too


Um, but seriously though, if you were tunneling that much on Dizzy and have no other suspects... *shakes head*

I realize you replaced in too, but that was on Day 1 and you only had 11 pages of RVS to catch up on. I replaced in on Day 2 and had to re-read like 40 pages. That wasn't fun.

I think the only excuse for not having any other possible scumreads is because you may not have been actively scumhunting throughout Day 1 and 2, and were only looking for reasons to lynch whoever seemed the most guilty at the time.

But I agree with your unvote on Dizzy, and for the most part I agree with the second paragraph of your above post.

[ReaperCharlie]

P.S. Can I have your old avatar? It was really cool. The one with like the space helmet or w/e

[Charlie]

Hmm. If DizzyIzzyB13's plan were to work, we need to name at least 3 candidates to receive the pills.

[Amished]

Reaper, how do you feel about Starbuck?

She seemed pretty eager to lynch Dizzy, and was extremely active at that point up until the events of thatguy00's lynch, but has since faded back into the woodwork.

This makes me believe she is either scum that was trying to pull a gambit and is now trying to fade back into the woodwork (I have done this myself, and it has worked rather nicely, since as I always say: "Once the seed of doubt is planted, tis mighty hard to uproot."),

OR,

she is town and thinks that having pushed that hard, she just made herself look guilty. And now she's trying not to get lynched for being too vehement in her attacks on Dizzy, and even though she

may

still want Dizzy dead, it is obvious that she doesn't want to

appear

like she still wants Dizzy dead.

The events leading up to Starbuck's

post 1330

may have just been a good excuse for her to unvote.

I realize that most of my post is speculation and is practically useless, but I guess it's just my way of making my thought process known to everyone. That's normally what I do in games: think out loud and hope someone else thought the same thing as me.

Anyone see where I'm coming from?

I understand the bolded; and it's relatively common for scum to do; but I've never heard of any townie do the italicized. They know they're town and therefore don't really have to worry about how they appear. They have their convictions/beliefs and follow through with them.

[Starbuck]

I think the only excuse for not having any other possible scumreads is because you may not have been actively scumhunting throughout Day 1 and 2, and were only looking for reasons to lynch whoever seemed the most guilty at the time.

You should go read me in iso, because I was all over jmj's ass like a fat kid loves cake on Day 1. I got the one-shot flashlight and investigated him that night and found him to be town.

The whole debacle about role PMs is what got me onto Dizzy. And when thatguy posted his PM and it mirrored mine to the "T" that's what made me suspect Dizzy more. I feel Dizzy's latest claim with the pills is a gambit, but I as I said, I am willing to lay off Dizzy until this can be proven.

[The AI Director]

"Something smells like... liquor!" someone yells excitedly. As the group nears an old table in an abandoned house, you all notice a bottle of liquor sitting nearby with a cloth stuck in the top, doused in gasoline.

The

molotov cocktail

is up for grabs!

3 players

are eligible to grab it! If someone wants to grab the item, just type

Grab: Molotov

!

[The AI Director]

The Fourth Vote Count of Day Three

Amished (3):

DizzyIzzyB13, Steam-Powered Shovel, Charlie

Steam-Powered Shovel (5):

Amished, ReaperCharlie, jmj3000, bv310, almightybob

dramonic (1):

crypto

Not voting (4):

nhammen, SaintKerrigan, dramonic, Starbuck

Deadline is in 2 days. With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[Starbuck]

Grab: Molotov

[Charlie]

Grab: Molotov

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Grab: Molotov

jmj, your "fatal flaw" is stupid.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

P.S. It's 2 days to deadline, so maybe we should get a lynch.

The case on Amished, for those who've forgotten.

[nhammen]

@jmj your flaw is not

@sps your amished case is crap. I don't follow gut. I don't follow dead gut. I don't follow sheep using dead gut. Try for an actual case.

@dizzy just because your ability is used during the day does not mean that it wont be affected by a roleblocker. Please confirm with the mod before making this statement.