Stars Aligned II - Game Over!

[Magua]

VP Baltar's new avatar scares me on a primal level.

That being said, I got to working things out for answering this question:

@Magua: How many mislynches do you reckon the town can afford?

And I don't like the answer I got.

We've got 12 people alive. Going by OP, cult is 6.25 people, 6-7, with 4 dead, leaving 2-3. Worst case scenario is 3 cult, 9 non-cult.

That makes it 9v3, which would in a normal game give us 2 mislynches. If it's 10v2, then we have 3 mislynches.

Dramonic reduces this by 1, if he's a murderer and not really cult. (I flip flop on believing that, but, again, worst case.) So, worst case scenario is, we have 3 cult, dramonic is a murderer, and so we have 1 mislynch.

Except for the insanities, which screw everything up. Sadism, Distraction, and Paranoid all reduce the town voting power, and we have enough of them (4 Sadism, not counting dramonic, 3 Paranoid, 4 Distraction) that this becomes a huge issue:

Sadism: If more than 2 townies have Sadism, we lose on lylo.
Paranoid: If a townie votes for a Paranoid townie, we lose on lylo.
Distraction: If a townie votes and then unvotes a cultist, we lose on lylo.

So if we mislynch today, the first wagon tomorrow -- perhaps even the first two votes -- *need* to be right or town loses.

Already, I think town is either at the point where it cannot hammer, or incredibly close to it. There's six of us not voting, and only one of us who can (Furcolow):

Animorpherv01: Paranoid(? - post #2905)
Dramonic: Not going to self vote.
Ellibereth: Sadism
Furcolow:
Kunkstar: Sadism
Magua: Sadism

Animorph's paranoia (his two failed votes) concerns me. I assumed that Paranoia only applied to activity that day (so that if no one has voted to lynch you *that day*, you are free to vote who you want.) No one has voted Animorph today, so I do not understand why his votes are failing.

[Percy]

Vote Count

dramonic - 5 (semioldguy, VP Baltar, iLord, rewq455, animorpherv1)

Magua - 1 (DrippingGoofball)
kunkstar7 - 1 (farside22)
Ellibereth - 1 (Furcolow)

Not Voting

- 5 (dramonic, Ellibereth, kunkstar7, Magua)

Deadline for today's lynch is

Friday May 14th at 1:00am (site time)

. You may view a countdown to the deadline

here.

The last two Insanity Infractions animorpherv1 accrued are cancelled; I apologise for the error.

The previous Vote Count has been edited to reflect the accurate count at the time.

(Which is good, because I just realised he would have had 8 Insanity Infractions...)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[kunkstar7]

By lynching dramonic today we will have 11 alive maximum, so it'll be 6 to lynch.

With iLord, VP, Furcolow, SOG, Farside, that's easily enough to swing any lynch on whoever is the next lynch target, and cult is probably at 2 left imo. We'll just be having long days as we have to wait for deadlines unless the lynch target/scum wants to cooperate.

[DrippingGoofball]

We need to lynch iLord... the engineer behind all the double-grave robbing and resulting insanities.

[kunkstar7]

We need to lynch iLord... the engineer behind all the double-grave robbing and resulting insanities.

Except for the fact that the graverobbing effectively shut down murderers like Dramonic.

[DrippingGoofball]

Except for the fact that the graverobbing effectively shut down murderers like Dramonic.

But if he wanted to murder, say, iLord, that would be a good thing.

[iLord]

But if he wanted to murder, say, iLord, that would be a good thing.

Yes, my brilliance has keenly prevented me from getting murdered. I'll be signing autographs after the game.

[farside22]

Continue the Dramlynching. DGB, Furcolow and Farside can finish up the lynch. (Farside, just finish off the confirmed murderer for now, you can continue your crusade against me tomorrow.)

You in a hurry to end the day before I can finish my reasoning to the town?

[dramonic]

Except for the fact that the graverobbing effectively shut down murderers like Dramonic.

But if he wanted to murder, say, iLord, that would be a good thing.

yeah, I tried doing that night 3

[VP Baltar]

We need to lynch iLord... the engineer behind all the double-grave robbing and resulting insanities.

That's actually one of the better ideas that came up in this game and is likely the reason why the town is so far ahead at this point. You're much more likely to be lynched than him. But keep pushing that rock.

[DrippingGoofball]

We need to lynch iLord... the engineer behind all the double-grave robbing and resulting insanities.

That's actually one of the better ideas that came up in this game and is likely the reason why the town is so far ahead at this point. You're much more likely to be lynched than him. But keep pushing that rock.

Did you follow Magua's calculations?

[rewq455]

Except for the fact that the graverobbing effectively shut down murderers like Dramonic.

But if he wanted to murder, say, iLord, that would be a good thing.

Why do you say that iLord is scum? Besides the fact that he wants to lynch you.

[VP Baltar]

We need to lynch iLord... the engineer behind all the double-grave robbing and resulting insanities.

That's actually one of the better ideas that came up in this game and is likely the reason why the town is so far ahead at this point. You're much more likely to be lynched than him. But keep pushing that rock.

Did you follow Magua's calculations?

No because they are grossly exaggerating the situation. There aren't more than six scum cult in this game. I'm simply stating that as a fact now. We've lynched correctly every single day this game, so to insist that we are close to being screwed by the number of cult is to assume that Percy is an incompetent mod, of which he is not.

Second, dramonic is CONFIRMED MURDERER, which Magua seems to ignore because he's not actually following the game. He claimed murderer. The mystery is gone. Furthermore, he is counting dramonic as a mislynch later in the game when he's getting lynched today.

Also, he is worried about all the town having their votes taken away by insanities, which isn't really the case. Most of the people who are voting dramonic right now are likely town people and we all still have our votes. I have mine and I don't plan to lose it any time soon due to insanities.

All in all, Magua's post just looks like scum trying to scare the town with hypotheticals into being much more paranoid than they need to be. It's much easier to get mislynches out of a paranoid town than it is out of a calm and logical one.

[Magua]

No because they are grossly exaggerating the situation. There aren't more than six scum cult in this game. I'm simply stating that as a fact now. We've lynched correctly every single day this game, so to insist that we are close to being screwed by the number of cult is to assume that Percy is an incompetent mod, of which he is not.

I'm not playing outguess the mod. Worst case scenario is we have two mislynches, best case is we have three. Where do I grossly exaggerate the situation?

Second, dramonic is CONFIRMED MURDERER, which Magua seems to ignore because he's not actually following the game. He claimed murderer. The mystery is gone. Furthermore, he is counting dramonic as a mislynch later in the game when he's getting lynched today.

Oh, I got that. You may recall me voicing displeasure when *you* were pushing *my* lynch over that of the claimed murderer.

But his status as murderer does not affect the number of days to lylo (which is just going to be non-cult vs cult). Yet, if he is a murderer, he must be dead for us to win. Therefore, he uses up a mislynch slot, because unless he's vigged, a day that we're lynching him is a day we're not lynching cult.

If dramonic *is* cult instead of murderer, that's *good* for us. Him being murderer instead of cult is the *worst case*.

Also, he is worried about all the town having their votes taken away by insanities, which isn't really the case. Most of the people who are voting dramonic right now are likely town people and we all still have our votes. I have mine and I don't plan to lose it any time soon due to insanities.

At the point when I wrote that and it looked like Percy was enforcing Paranoia across days, you had 5 -- out of 12, mind you -- people unable to vote. If you want to assume that there's only two cult, then even in the *best case* that would've been 3 townies who were unable to place a vote.

Reversing the insanity infractions on the Paranoid votes helps out a lot, but that was not how it was looking when I made that post.

All in all, Magua's post just looks like scum trying to scare the town with hypotheticals into being much more paranoid than they need to be. It's much easier to get mislynches out of a paranoid town than it is out of a calm and logical one.

I want town to be calm and logical. I want town to be *careful* with their votes.

You are reading words that are not there.

[rewq455]

If dramonic *is* cult instead of murderer, that's *good* for us. Him being murderer instead of cult is the *worst case*.

What advantage would his claiming murderer give the cultists? He IS murderer.

[iLord]

Magua gave the only answer he could, else we could've afforded mislynching on him and still won the game lol. He saw where I was going with that question.

[kunkstar7]

Continue the Dramlynching. DGB, Furcolow and Farside can finish up the lynch. (Farside, just finish off the confirmed murderer for now, you can continue your crusade against me tomorrow.)

You in a hurry to end the day before I can finish my reasoning to the town?

Yet you don't even finish your reasoning when you clearly have the time to post it?

[DrippingGoofball]

Alright, *twitch*

unvote, vote: Dramonic

[farside22]

Continue the Dramlynching. DGB, Furcolow and Farside can finish up the lynch. (Farside, just finish off the confirmed murderer for now, you can continue your crusade against me tomorrow.)

You in a hurry to end the day before I can finish my reasoning to the town?

Yet you don't even finish your reasoning when you clearly have the time to post it?

Because I'm behind in a few other games and I need to go back to yesterday and get a couple of notes in before a hammer.

*mutters about people being impatient*

[VP Baltar]

L-1

Someone hammer this fool. Good effort, dram. Time to hit the locker room.

[rewq455]

Hey Dram, I get the feeling that this will take a while if you don't self vote. If you read this post and have not been lynched yet, please do so.

[VP Baltar]

Which town players beside myself are able to carry out a kill still?

[DrippingGoofball]

What would the requirements be to be able to make a kill?

[Furcolow]

unvote
vote: dramonic
*twitch*y hammer*

i'll get u next time ellibereth :p

[Furcolow]

trying to be pro-town here, since people were requesting this.