Mini 962 - Mafia In Murrieta - Over!

[Hoopla]

That ISO thing you mentioned fitz doing on Espeonage was actually just him chopping up a single post in to different things to respond to. It was a pretty well laid out case that isn't terribly weak like you seem to suggest.

Not really, it was a collection of buzzwords that serve to impart suspicion without explaining the supposed scum-motivation behind them. Please read that post again, because it isn't a case - it's just a long way of saying he's been doing nothing.

Factually, it is relatively accurate, but I disagree with the conclusion he implies. I have provided my reasons why this information doesn't make him scum - havingfitz has not done that. He has just dropped this information under the guise of a case, and let people assume this information makes him scummy.

So, to havingfitz I say; provide the reasons behind

why

this information makes him scum, because I see more town motivation for his play here.

While I agree that you suggest Scott is active lurking, I only partially agree because of meta read. He's playing similarly to how he did in our last game together where he was town. However, if Scott really is town, then he would help us out a lot by giving us more opinions about players and what is going on. I currently have a neutral-ish read on him because his moderately anti-town play is somewhat evened out by my meta read on him. I'm really not feeling like he is deserving of a day 1 wagon.

Funny. How would you expect him to play as scum then? Better or worse play than his supposed town play? Meta runs both ways, you need to see town and scum games to have any chance of making accurate comparisons.

If your Scott wagon doesn't follow through very well, who would you be targeting for a lynch instead?

SaintKerrigan or havingfitz.

[ICEninja]

Funny. How would you expect him to play as scum then? Better or worse play than his supposed town play? Meta runs both ways, you need to see town and scum games to have any chance of making accurate comparisons.

I understand you point, but your entire case against him is an opportunistic vote and his play style. The way he is playing can not be interpreted as scum because he does the exact same thing as town. While his vote was indeed potentially opportunistic, and deserving of pressure, you said that you're comfortable lynching him today. That is going way too far.

it's just a long way of saying he's been doing nothing.

His point is that Espeonage is actively doing nothing, which is a lot more suspicious than simply doing nothing.

And good lord your avatar creeps me out.

[Scott Brosius]

Scott

, while you're here, can you give me your reasoning behind your Espeonage vote? Would you be prepared to lynch him now if the wagon grew? Who's your second choice?

I gave my reason (active lurking, refusing to read, asking others to ask him questions instead of just participating, anti-town tendencies) and I started the wagon. So I don't understand your opportunistic comment.

I also fail to see how all of the scum-tells Esp is giving off together make him town. Two negatives don't make a positive.

[Hoopla]

Scott

, while you're here, can you give me your reasoning behind your Espeonage vote? Would you be prepared to lynch him now if the wagon grew? Who's your second choice?

I gave my reason (active lurking, refusing to read, asking others to ask him questions instead of just participating, anti-town tendencies) and I started the wagon. So I don't understand your opportunistic comment.

In my mind you're the one that mostly fits the model of active lurking though. How do you feel about this? Would you like to enlighten me of all the information/scumhunting you've contributed so far?

I also fail to see how all of the scum-tells Esp is giving off together make him town. Two negatives don't make a positive.

The only crimes Espeonage is guilty of is fence sitting and refusing to read posts. These aren't scummy, because I don't think scum do this more than town. It is certainly anti-town play though, and I hope it stops. Why do you think these tells are more likely to come from scum than town? Or do you just see it as anti-town?

[Scott Brosius]

[

In my mind you're the one that mostly fits the model of active lurking though. How do you feel about this? Would you like to enlighten me of all the information/scumhunting you've contributed so far?


The only crimes Espeonage is guilty of is fence sitting and refusing to read posts. These aren't scummy, because I don't think scum do this more than town. It is certainly anti-town play though, and I hope it stops. Why do you think these tells are more likely to come from scum than town? Or do you just see it as anti-town?

I don't really have a reaction to it. I get accused of it often, doesn't bother me. I feel its due more to my concise posts than anything.

I guess we'll have to disagree about fence-sitting and refusing to read being scummy. Refusing to read is different than laziness. Laziness is a null tell to me, but an outright refusal to read is scummy to me.

[SaintKerrigan]

Kerrigan, whoa whoa, so now you're calling my hazy scum READ on you (yes you've been using the word read all game) a scum POINT. These are 2 entirely different things.

Ahem! The scum read

(or scum point, to be precise)

you had on me is the playstyle issue that made me a neutral read in the first place. This is hardly the same thing as a scum read overall. Let's not misrepresent what I'm saying, please.

And no, me second guessing myself that you are town is not a scum point.

Then why was I strictly a neutral read when I had town points? Neutral points don't influence scumminess one way or the other.

While I'm not going to use this as part of my case against Kerrigan, I would like to point out that this is usually the point in the game where scum tends to start jumping on to the leading mislynch wagon. The fact that kerrigan hasn't gotten any votes recently makes me feel good, because that means people are being hesitant about the case and need real convincing before they're willing to jump on.

So why point out a theory based on circumstance if you don't intend to use it? Because by saying "I'm not going to use this as part of my case, but..." you can suggest the theory to people, which makes me look even more scummy, without outright saying that it's actually valid (since it really isn't). That was a very, very scummy post, Ice. You finally managed to lose town points. Congratulations.

(By the way, I bet Ice is now going to take the above and say that I'm dissolving my town read on him in order to turn it into a scum read so I can vote him. That's tunneling for ya.)

@ Jack: Why are you voting Fitz?

[JackALope2323]

@ Kerrigan: It's an oldvote, left over from when I had wanted to put some pressure on Fitz.

It's on there now just because I don't feel comfortable not pressuring anybody at some point or another.

Anyways.

Also, what is with this semantic back-and-forth between you and Ice on this whole scum read/scum point/neutral read/neutral point/etc. bullcrap?

I may just be being paranoid, but it almost seems to me like scum fighting each other (over something rather silly) to push suspicion off of both.

@ Hoopla: Your defense of Espeonage is a bit shaky, in my opinion, as is your attack on Scott, but it seems that both your and my opinion on both of them is based on meta and theory. So I'll leave it at that.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Jack: So if your vote is on Fitz merely to provide pressure, why haven't you moved it to me, someone you've considered scummy for quite awhile? Or did your read of me change?

[JackALope2323]

Because I believe you already have enough pressure on you. Any more would be superfluous.

[Hoopla]

Because I believe you already have enough pressure on you. Any more would be superfluous.

As if. SaintKerrigan is the perfect candidate for pressure-based wagons. More is more, I say.

---

Something else I want to talk about - the deadline is 6 days away, I know that seems like plenty of time, but with the weekend coming up, and without a wagon strong enough to force a claim on someone, some of us start needing to make compromises. I don't want to end up in a situation where we wait until 2-3 days before deadline only to get a PR claim, and either taking a gamble on that wagon, or scrambling elsewhere. Scrambling never works in the town's favour.

A related issue is the length of the game already. Many people spew ideals about the importance of information and prolonging the day, but we can never use this information properly if we have to sift through a 400+ post Day 1. Lets get on with it now please. Day 1 has low enough odds of hitting scum as it is, we don't need to minimise tomorrow's odds by watering down the information we have already.

I'm currently prepared to lynch Scott, SaintKerrigan or havingfitz.

I'd like everyone in their next post to give their back-up choices too, so we have a clearer idea of realistic lynch candidates.

[Espeonage]

fitz and scott and cruelty.

Now to Hoopla's question. Yeah I read the last page. You should all be thankful my current tutor can't teach.

Well we had RVS and I have already shown my opinion on that. Then came the long arguements which I skimmed over so sadly I can't comment there.
Then came the StK thing. Now I skimmed over the early stuff and have been trying to wade through the later stuff. Now the way I see it scum are sitting back and letting those guys argue. Pretty hypocritical of me but I am leaning towards the quieter people as the scummy people.

[Scott Brosius]

So you don't mention me in any previous posts and now I have leapfrogged onto your back-up lynch list. You keep making me more and more confident in my vote.

[Espeonage]

Ok honestly i have a full scum read on 1 person. Hoopla asked for backups so i was forced to give a couple of weaker neutral reads.

[ICEninja]

My apologies Kerrigan, you referred to it as a scum point once. Most of the time you kept saying I had a scum read on you (a "hazy" one) when in fact I had a neutral read. You keep saying you had all these town points, but they were pretty minuscule. I mean, they came from the first couple pages where you seemed to be putting forth rational thought. I said I didn't know what to think of you because you seemed sort of town, but I was second guessing myself because you resembled your last game. That isn't a scum point, its a hesitation point. It would take a scum point to negate a town case for you, but there never was one. My townish read on you was just as gut as my meta read. Neither really held any water to me. Thus the "I don't know what to think about Kerrigan".

So why point out a theory based on circumstance if you don't intend to use it? Because by saying "I'm not going to use this as part of my case, but..." you can suggest the theory to people, which makes me look even more scummy, without outright saying that it's actually valid (since it really isn't).

Just because I'm not using it as another point in my case doesn't mean it isn't a valid point. It makes me more comfortable with the case I have, is all. It isn't meant to persuade others that you're scum, only to make them feel more confident that my existing posts about you being scummy are accurate. Lets call it a supporting point, where my aforementioned case included my main points.

(By the way, I bet Ice is now going to take the above and say that I'm dissolving my town read on him in order to turn it into a scum read so I can vote him. That's tunneling for ya.)

Did you just preemptively strike me? Are you so worried about getting called out on OMGUS that you have to throw in a comment like that?

I am one of those people that likes as much day 1 content as possible, but I agree with Hoopla in saying we should start thinking about wrapping the day up. I've seen situations where a PR is claimed too close to the deadline and bad things happen as a result. Lets make sure that if we force a claim, that we do it with at very minimum 3 real days left.

As for alternate lynches, I'm no longer feeling good on a fitz lynch. I'd be tolerant of an Espeonage lynch, but that's really the only other person I can see myself lynching at the moment without some further pressure and a case built. Hoopla your predecessor was scummy, but your contributions have been very good for town so I can't see you lynched day 1.

If it came between lynching Scott or no lynching, I'd lynch Scott. But other than that, Its really Kerrigan or at worst Espeonage. There are a handful of other players that haven't been analyzed as much, however, such as cruelty, charter, and AMG. Should a solid case be presented on one of them, I might change my mind on this.

[ICEninja]

I did an ISO read of charter, and I can't possibly see a case coming up against him as today's lynch. His case on Scott was pretty bad, but he has a decent case on Espeonage, and has made it clear he finds Kerrigan scummy too. I'm not ready to declare this guy town yet, but he seems pretty straight forward so far.

The same thing with cruelty, for the most part. Actually, we tend to follow a similar mindset on a lot of things. Going through again, I'm not sure how I could have possibly thought cruelty found Kerrigan's early unvote suspect. He made it fairly clear that he never felt this way. I think I must have mistaken cruelty and charter at some point. Anyways, cruelty looks pretty good to me at the moment. I can't really see any case that could go up on him at the moment either.

Almaster absolutely needed some pressure put on him today. He's gone days without posting on multiple occasions, and hasn't contributed to much of the real discussion that's happened, or discussed anything that is currently relevant. I need this post that's coming later today.

I also feel like SAMP hasn't commented on much that has happened on the current situation. His vote was made in his ISO 6 for a weak early game tell, and hasn't changed it since. I haven't seen SAMP add anything to this weak case, and should either move his vote or make a stronger case. I need to see a new post from SAMP that discusses things that have happened in the past week that don't involve charter.

I've found Jack fairly townish for most of the game, but we'll need to see with the results of day 1 and night 1.

I like Magna so far. Scott is definitely quieter than I'd like, though I'm far from convinced he's scum. He's also been posting more actively as of late. I used to find fitz on the scummy side, but lately he's been improving.

tl;dr of my overall opinions of day 1:

Lynch Kerrigan, though if there isn't any desire for that, I'll settle for Espeonage. I doubt today's lynch will be anyone else, but I'll be open to persuasion for a lynch of Scott, SAMP, or Almaster if someone comes up with really good reasons why to lynch one of them and why to not lynch Kerrigan.

[SaintKerrigan]

Okay, new plan. People are making way too many mountains out of molehills, and I've tried almost every way I know how to explain why my actions aren't scummy. I'm at my wit's end, so I'm going to try the only sure-fire way I know to convince you that I'm not scum.

Unvote: Espeonage. Vote: SaintKerrigan.

All right, everyone. Have at it. I'm a Vanilla Townie, so my loss shouldn't hinder the town much, right? Once I flip, hopefully you can finally see just how ridiculous the case on me really was, and hopefully gain something useful out of it.

[wolframnhart]

Vote Count #9

Havingfitz - Espeonage, Jack,
TheGekoJ - AGM
Charter - SAMP
SaintKerrigan - Cruelty, ICEninja, Magna, SaintK (L-3)
Espeonage - Scott, Charter, Havingfitz
Scott Brosius - Hoopla

Not Voting: No one

Deadline is May 12th at 12 pm PDT
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[ICEninja]

I'm at my wit's end, so I'm going to try the only sure-fire way I know to convince you that I'm not scum.

Or, you know, you could try showing us who is a better lynch candidate?

[SaintKerrigan]

I'm at my wit's end, so I'm going to try the only sure-fire way I know to convince you that I'm not scum.

Or, you know, you could try showing us who is a better lynch candidate?

My better lynch candidate is Espeonage, and you've already made it clear how you feel about lynching him over me.

Look, you and the others forced me to go this far to prove my innocence. I'd really appreciate it if you wouldn't patronize me in the process.

[Scott Brosius]

Gambits are so useless and rarely help the town. Why couldn't you do this as scum? It's not like you put yourself at L-1, L-3 is still safe. If you are town, you are presenting yourself as an easy target for scum.

[Espeonage]

I don't really think this is a scum act. A scum would only do that in dire circumstances as far as I see it.

[SaintKerrigan]

If I'm going to get mislynched, I'd much rather have it happen now than in lylo. I've tried every way other than self-lynching that I know how to get people to stop seeing my actions as scummy, but multiple pages and craptons of posts later, I'm only drawing more people onto my wagon. When you're that scummy in other people's eyes, it's better off for the town if you get rid of yourself so you don't become a risk to the town later in the game.

Also, doing this as scum is suicidal under any circumstances. Just so it's out there.

[Scott Brosius]

I don't think scum would do this either, but that is up to us to decide and not SK.

[ICEninja]

I'm not sure you've ever been the leading wagon. You've been at L-4 for days now, when Espeonage has been at L-3. You aren't at risk of anything so long that you can prove to us that Espeonage is a better lynch than you.

You can't rely on a case that you've already presented to convince those on your bandwagon. You've been so flustered and upset over the people on your wagon, and this whole time you've had fewer than half the votes required for a lynch.

It isn't time to prove your innocence. You've tried and people aren't buying it. It's time to prove another's guilt.

[charter]

Did you read my post. There is a little subheading there for your convenience.

In short. Yes and I already said it.

Sorry, I meant response to the reasons I was voting you. I misspoke.

Oh my god Hoopla is town. Glad you replaced in since Gecko wasn't doing much.

I'll lynch Espionage, Scott, or Kerrigan.

Lol Kerrigan.

unvote, vote Kerrigan

Got a claim of scum here folks. As for those saying "scum wouldn't do this", that's baloney.