Left 4 Dead Mafia - Day 6?

[ReaperCharlie]

P.S. Thank you in advance

*love and kisses*

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Am I the onlty person who is get increasingly irritated by SPS's refusal to type Glork's name properly?

Stop it. Now.

I'm not going to stop, sorry. It's just something I do.

Deliberately trying to irritate other players is not a pro-town action.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I'm not deliberately trying to irritate. It's just an unfortunate side effect of how I spell certain things. Would you start using British spelling if I asked you to? (And seriously, how annoying can it be that I switch 2 letters around?)

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Very.

[Amished]

@Dizzy: I understand that people die for a reason, but I'm most.. up in arms I guess.. that SPS ignores other valid reasons for a death and only attributes one of them to me without saying what the other reasons could possibly be or saying why this one is most likely.

[bv310]

Currently in the middle of catching up. SPS, I'd like to add my name to the list of people who would like you to use real names. I should have a catch-up post for you guys tomorrow night after work.

[Charlie]

ReaperCharlie, I'm pretty sure that you'll find one quite recently made by almightybob. I've also made one further back. Contents differ. Just search posts made by us in newest to oldest if you're that lazy.

[almightybob]

I would appreciate if one of you could give me and SaintKerrigan a list of these things:

As it happens, I did almost exactly that earlier, when SK asked. Here you go. Note: I mistakenly refer to Starbuck as "he" in the first paragraph. Starbuck is, in fact, a lady.

[almightybob]

Whoops, didn't mean to post quite so soon.

Anyway, it doesn't seem I've missed a whole lot. Plenty of NK WIFOM along the lines of -

"But Mafia would kill people who suspect them!"
To which the obvious reply is
"But then they'd know you would think that, so they WOULDN'T kill people who suspect them!"
Aaand WIFOMspiral.

If Glork has such a fearsome reputation as a scumhunter, then perhaps he was killed early because of that, regardless of who he was concentrating his suspicions on?


I've already stated why I think Amished is less likely to be scum than others - Tar's push on him during the D1 chaos smacks of mislynch attempt. IMO there's no way Tar and Amished are scum together. Of course, with 2 scum factions it's possible Amished is in the other, but even if he is that makes him less likely to be scum overall than a random person.


And I've already made my case against Izzy. There are more things pointing to her as scum than the rolePM discrepancy.
SPS looks like lazy scum. He's done very little scumhunting of his own that I can see, instead just lurking and riding Glork's coattails for 2 Days. This is another thing that makes me think that Amished is more likely to be Town.

This rather pointless bickering over name typos between SPS and Izzy could easily be an attempt at distancing - a completely unrelated and trivial matter which they can both get aggressive and confrontational about, leaving Town with the impression "Oh no, Izzy and SPS were really going for each other! No way could they be scumbuddies".

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

"But Mafia would kill people who suspect them!"
To which the obvious reply is
"But then they'd know you would think that, so they WOULDN'T kill people who suspect them!"
Aaand WIFOMspiral.

NK analysis is sufficiently uncommon that scum are better off just killing who they want. Taking out someone who suspects you more than compensates for the added suspicion from other players.

If Glork has such a fearsome reputation as a scumhunter, then perhaps he was killed early because of that, regardless of who he was concentrating his suspicions on?

Sure, that probably played a part in the decision. All I'm saying is that Amished would be somewhat more likely to go for either of the two.

I've already stated why I think Amished is less likely to be scum than others - Tar's push on him during the D1 chaos smacks of mislynch attempt. IMO there's no way Tar and Amished are scum together.

At the time of Tar's vote an Amishedlynch was looking very remote. And it wasn't a push; he didn't provide any reasons to vote for Amished. IIRC, Socrates was mostly responsible for the Amishedwagon taking off, which happened later.

SPS looks like lazy scum.

I'm lazier as town than as scum, just fyi.

name typos

It's not a typo; it's a nickname.

[jmj3000]

I apologize for my sudden V/LA, I had to make an unexpected trip to see family and had no access to a computer. I will read what's been posted since I lasted posted and post any observations I come up with.

[jmj3000]

I apologize for my sudden V/LA, I had to make an unexpected trip to see family and had no access to a computer. I will read what's been posted since I lasted posted and post any observations I come up with.

[almightybob]

NK analysis is sufficiently uncommon that scum are better off just killing who they want. Taking out someone who suspects you more than compensates for the added suspicion from other players.

Not when everyone then goes "Oh but dead Townie X suspected living scum Y! That's probably why they were NKed! Lynch lynch lynch".

If your statement is true, then the correct scum play then becomes to kill people who

don't

suspect you, because then you will attract less suspicion overall. So then your statement is untrue. So then the correct scum play is to do what you said. So then your statement IS true.

Don't you see the WIFOM spiral here?


This is exactly why I don't trust this wagon. A case built on WIFOM is no case at all.

At the time of Tar's vote an Amishedlynch was looking very remote. And it wasn't a push; he didn't provide any reasons to vote for Amished. IIRC, Socrates was mostly responsible for the Amishedwagon taking off, which happened later.

At the time of Tar's vote,

every

lynch was looking remote. That's why I don't like it. People were looking for anyone to wagon with the deadline looming. Perfect opportunity for scum to throw out a name and hope people jump on in the rush to avoid a D1 no lynch.

I'm lazier as town than as scum, just fyi.

So that fairly prompt reply is indicative of you being scum?
Not really gonna trust your own evaluation of your meta. Never having played with you, I don't know whether this laziness is on a level with your Town play or not.

This just seems like a scum cop-out. If you're Town, scumhunt on your own. Play to your win condition or replace out.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Not when everyone then goes "Oh but dead Townie X suspected living scum Y! That's probably why they were NKed! Lynch lynch lynch".

If your statement is true, then the correct scum play then becomes to kill people who don't suspect you, because then you will attract less suspicion overall. So then your statement is untrue. So then the correct scum play is to do what you said. So then your statement IS true.

Don't you see the WIFOM spiral here?

I see the WIFOM spiral, but it is simply an empirical fact that people don't attach sufficient significance to NK targets for it to be worth to refrain from killing based on suspicion. The potential for WIFOM is almost certainly a part of why people ignore it.

This is exactly why I don't trust this wagon. A case built on WIFOM is no case at all.

My case isn't built on NK analysis.

At the time of Tar's vote,

every

lynch was looking remote. That's why I don't like it. People were looking for anyone to wagon with the deadline looming. Perfect opportunity for scum to throw out a name and hope people jump on in the rush to avoid a D1 no lynch.

There were a couple of people with a number of votes on them. You don't avoid a no-lynch by voting for someone with very few votes on him (as evidenced by the fact that Amished didn't get lynched; there wasn't enough time). That's just not what happens in deadline situations.

Actually your reply to the vote perfectly encapsulates why I think Tar wasn't gunning for an Amished-lynch.

I don't rate the chances of this town running up a lynch from a standing start in 24 hours. That's 2, when it's 10 to lynch. jmj is a far more feasible wagon.
Plus, I honestly can't remember anyone posting a case on Amished or saying why they think he's a good lynch. Did I just not see it? If someone did post one, please link me.

The fact that Amished nearly got lynched has very little to do with Tar and a lot to do with Socrates' post 653.

So that fairly prompt reply is indicative of you being scum?
Not really gonna trust your own evaluation of your meta. Never having played with you, I don't know whether this laziness is on a level with your Town play or not.

I have very little motivation to lie about my meta. It would just be an unnecessary risk.

This just seems like a scum cop-out. If you're Town, scumhunt on your own. Play to your win condition or replace out.

I'm not a particularly analytic player, but I am looking for scum. I am aware that using dead townie's suspicions looks lazy, but I don't care precisely because I'm playing to my win condition.

Cause he knows exactly why those kills were made cause he was in on them.

I just noticed this. For all your complaints yesterday you seem to have no problem implying I was somehow responsible for both NKs.

[Amished]

Uhh, both N1 and N2..... not both N2 *headdesk*

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I should've re-read the entire post instead of just that paragraph:

He's also ignoring a full half of the NK's. You wanna know why? Cause he knows exactly why those kills were made cause he was in on them.

I didn't post any analysis of either N2-kill. I considered both N1 kills. So when you said "full half", I thought you referred to the N2 kills.

The rest of the post does make it clear which kills you're talking about, my bad.

[crypto]

Self-discipline level is subzero. Must . . . not . . . lurk . . .

Anyway. A couple things of note while I reread at a pace of about 0.67 posts per day.

Almightybob spews crap about night kill WIFOM. There was some huge MD thread condemning this, and rightly so. Town points to SPS for laying down the law.

Dizzy is spending way too much energy grumbling about "Glrok." Very needless distraction as far as I'm concerned, but I'm not sure what to make of it insofar as scum active lurking versus general irritation non-indicative of alignment.

ReaperCharlie I find weirdly pro-town. Primarily instinctual, but I'll have to reread his iso. and stuff to remind myself. Evidently I didn't make any specific notes about his play during my most recent read/skim. At least this jibes with my DocPotter read despite DocPotter flaking out of this game while remaining active in another.

Have to leave. More later. Sorry for mangled rushed manner.

[almightybob]

it is simply an empirical fact that people don't attach sufficient significance to NK targets for it to be worth to refrain from killing based on suspicion

This 'empirical fact' is completely discredited when you observe that right now, in this very game, people

are

attaching sufficient significance to NK targets.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Dizzy is spending way too much energy grumbling about "Glrok." Very needless distraction as far as I'm concerned, but I'm not sure what to make of it insofar as scum active lurking versus general irritation non-indicative of alignment.

It's an irritation that negatively affects my ability to read him properly, so hardly a needless distraction. The needless distraction is SPS's insistence on attempting to irritate the town.

[crypto]

It's not an attempt at irritation. Furthermore, it shouldn't cause so much irritation as to warrant this sort of reaction. You're either over-analyzing or you're contriving over-analysis. Stawp it!

[dramonic]

ive been away for the weekend, getting done with my reading.
also, its Glork, not Golrk

[Amished]

@crypto: largely what bob has said, but add in what I mentioned about N1.

I'm aware of the MD thread, and the OTHER reasons besides level 1 (or even a level 0) reason for a night kill have been ignored for some unknown reason. Without addressing any of the other possibilities and blindly following one option without backing up supposition is ridiculous and what SPS has been doing since the start of D2.

With that clear NK analysis being present, bob's logic comes more into play where SPS's analysis is known and can be manipulated (as SPS-town) or perpetuated (as scum). At this time, I believe SPS to be part of Tar's "mauled" grouping due to the selective scumhunting of only looking at the "om nommed" motivations, but I could see him being part of the "om nommed" group and using NK wifom to coast through days on a weak position without really being called out on it.

[SaintKerrigan]

So I know y'all are sick of hearing me say "I'm still catching up," but yeah, I'm still catching up. I did a quick summary of where I stand on issues that caught my eye from the first five pages. I'll continue to put those comments up as I reread.

Anyway, here goes:

Page 1

- Mostly confirms and lighthearted fun.

DeathNote's request for a Townie PM is scuzzy, what's the point of asking for something if it's not required and you don't need it?

Page 2 (Random votes, moving on)

Page 3

- Socrates' plan is interesting. Unless there's day items, though, what's stopping scum from NKing people who pick up items? PMing for items is an issue as well if it's allowed.

- Hmm, Socrates' rule-quoting at the end may clear up DeathNote's Townie PM request, if correct.

Page 4

- Dislike Fongoid's vote for Bv310 for bandwagoning, when it was clearly random.

- DeathNote provides an explanation for requesting a Townie PM. Not sure I buy it.

- Not seeing what Socrates or Amished is saying about Ifrinn.

- DeathNote urges people who grab items to claim. Trying to help the scum out, eh?

Page 5

- Almightybob's 101 does as good a job as any trying to figure out what induced people to vote for Ifrinn.

Totally

agree that the manner in which the Ifrinn wagon was formed was suspect.

- Fongoid asks people to ISO Bv310. I did so and only found minimal postage to be of concern.

If you think there's something from this area that I should've addressed but didn't, please let me know.

[The AI Director]

DeathNote has requested replacement.

[Charlie]

Just a quick skim today.

Uh bob, you don't sound convincing at all in #1212. It is hard to describe... it is like reading a politician post good stuff about reducing taxes and advocating green technology.

Perhaps something rings a bell...like you using "never attribute to stupidity what can be attributed to malice"? Reverse someguy's razor?