mini 943- Greek Mythology! (And the winner is... ?)

[Shadow Dancer]

Some thoughts...

I think Alma claiming Ares is genuine. Ares is a role that is almost certainly in this game.

At first glance that makes it a good choice for a fake claim, of course. How ever, a fake claim of an existingrole provokes a counter claim - that is unless Alma is Scum and Ares is scum but nor Alma is not Ares...

Ares being some kind of killing role makes perfectly sense (him being kind of the god of bloodshed...). So if Alma is really Ares, which I am as good as sure about, he is either really vig or he is SK that chose to claim a role that would disguise his true identity very well...

He would have needed to predict Oobas later claim how ever, which is not impossible but still makes him a bit more trustworthy in my eyes.

All that does not makie him a good lynch candidate for me right now.

There is no reason to doubt Ooobas claim, unless some one comes up with a good reasoning why Athene might not be town...

Flava keeps lurking, interupted only by active lurking, contributing next to nothing substantial at all. The only things that made me insert a "next to" into the previous sentence are his "last minute suspicions" that he throws in (namely against Iec at the end of D1), while still voting other players, namely VV, Plum, for reasons that are either not there or very thin at best...

I am quite comfortable with my vote, still I am wondering if it is just because I do not like/understand his style...

Flava, if you have anything substantial to say, please do it at least

before

we lynch you, OK (I am not refering to a role claim, that is totally up to you).

Maybe I have to revise my opinion about Jack... Notice to self: Needs a reread.

If any one has a solid case against Iec, please bring it up, because right now I feel as if I might trust him too much and that makes my skin crawl... This game has so many degrees of freedom, I am really paranoid right now...

Somehow LC is still a white piece of paper for me... It alomst seems as if the both of us agree about every thing. I should give him a town read for that, but then again my paranoia....

I also need to reread Joh, but that may take a while. He made some really long posts

Of topic question to Joh: Could you please give me the code you use to generate those neat links to other posts? I really like those.

[Shadow Dancer]

What ever I tried to write there...

"that is unless Alma is Scum and Ares is scum but Alma is not Ares... "

Now it's correct...

[Iecerint]

Well, FF should certain claim before he's lynched, too. I guess he's already said his ability is crap, though.

[Shadow Dancer]

[...] And no, just because there's a good chance I'll be lynched doesn't mean I'm not going to keep pushing what I believe.

So

what

is it you believe in, Flava? Please tell us!

[Shadow Dancer]

I want him to contribute more than just claim...

If he is town, he certainly has some thoughts in his head that, given the low quantity

and

qualoty of his posts, he did not get rid of, yet.

If he is in fact mafia, well, then I do not care, but what's he gotta lose, eh?

[Iecerint]

Oh, I agree. I was disputing your "(I am not refering to a role claim, that is totally up to you)" bit.

[Jack]

I want him to answer Joh's question. It's not as if Joh asked him to claim or something.

He asked me to reread one of the most prolific posters without giving a reason for wanting it.

SD, what do you mean by "he would have had to have predicted ooba's claim later"?

[Iecerint]

I didn't reread you. I just expressed what I thought about you.

[Iecerint]

(Point being that you can share your feelings without rereading me.)

[Shadow Dancer]

SD, what do you mean by "he would have had to have predicted ooba's claim later"?

It is pretty much a WIFOM argument:

D1 Alma claimed vig.

D2 Ooba claimed to know Alma in deed had a not specified kill ability.

If Alma had claimed a non killing role, he would have risked being exposed by such a claim, hence, if he wasn't Vig but in fact SK, he would have needed to predict that such a claim would or could happen and accordingly chose Vig as the only possible disguise claim.

Therefore the question how suspicious Alma still is directly correlates with the question, how probale it is he predicted what might and evenuattly would happen.

As stated before I am almost sure that his Ares claim is genuine which basically eliminates the possibility that he is Hades GF.

[Shadow Dancer]

SD, what do you mean by "he would have had to have predicted ooba's claim later"?

It is pretty much a WIFOM argument:

D1 Alma claimed vig.

D2 Ooba claimed to know Alma in deed had a not specified kill ability.

If Alma had claimed a non killing role, he would have risked being exposed by such a claim, hence, if he wasn't Vig but in fact SK, he would have needed to predict that such a claim would or could happen and accordingly chose Vig as the only possible disguise claim.

Therefore the question how suspicious Alma still is directly correlates with the question, how probale it is he predicted what might and evenuattly would happen.

As stated before I am almost sure that his Ares claim is genuine which basically eliminates the possibility that he is Hades GF.

[ooba]

I have started on the re-read .. Think I have a good grasp on both the setup and possible scum .. Posting thoughts on both as soon as I am done ..

[ooba]

Ok. Think I have got the setup and all the scum. But before that, there's something I have to clarify..

@Iece, SD: Are you both Masons? Your soft claiming and following each other is neither here nor there. Any good scum would have been able to spot this on Day 1. Is your alignment confirmed to each other?

Asking this because it would dramatically change my read of the entire game otherwise ..

[LordChronos]

Guys, I am really, really sorry about my inactivity. For the last week or so I have been busy with AP exam work. I will try to re-read and post more either later today or sometime tomorrow.

[ooba]

Let me start with setup speculation

Claim 1: Neither Poseidon nor Hades can be town

Hades is dead and ONE town person controls all three counters of Hades, Zeus, and Poseidon.

When they die, they pass on a counter. Whomever receives Zeus' Power day 0 also receives Zeus' counter.

Will prove by converse. Assume Poseidon is town. There is a chance that he might receive the Zeus counter - since the process is random and decided by players. Therefore a player who was Poseidon could have both counters at the start of D1. If the town lynches Hades and this player hammers, then the town wins right there.

Two key assumptions of him receiving the counter and him hammering; the first is random; the second has a probability of happening since a town player with two tokens might claim and want the hammer.

There is no way I can see a mod designing a setup where the game can end on D1. Hence Poseidon is scum. (This applies to Hades too, but I thought it was obvious that he was scum)

Claim 2: The setup is 2:2:8

Now with the earlier claim that both of them are scum, lets assume both are a part of a three member team. The win condition does not make much sense here if its three member; So we win if a guy with a token lynches two specific scum in a three member team - sounds odd.

However it makes perfect sense if you take the case of two competing two member scum teams. It's still debated in the MD forum if 2:2:8 is fair to the town since they have to lynch 4 scum (assuming no X-kills). I think the additional win condition is for us to have another out. If we manage to hunt down the two heads of both the groups, we win.

OP flavor of Poseidon vs. Hades and the entire dialogue also supports my theory of them being in opposite teams.

Claim 3: Both of them have a GF type role

Most mods give the scum teams a one-shot protection or night cross kill immunity. This claim is slightly weak but is supported by both the lack of Night kills on N1 and Ares's unstoppable kill special (to get through a GF's protection).

Anyway thats it for setup speculation. Would like to see if my mason call is correct before I post my scum list ..

[Iecerint]

Sorta begs the question of why they apparently didn't, innit. ^^

No use hiding it now that you've gone so far as ask outright. Yeah, SD and I are alignment-confirmed masons.

[ooba]

Sorta begs the question of why they apparently didn't, innit. ^^

I think I know why:
VV was dead (-1)
AlGm's claim made sense if you had a GF role in your team (-1)
You being masons was obvious (-2)
I was Athena (and cleared in most people's eyes) (-1)

So they had a chance of hitting opposite scum of 2 in a set of 5 which I think was good odds for them.

Anyway my thoughts on town\scum:
a) VV,SB are dead and confirmed town
b) I am town
c) Iece\SD are town
d) AlGm's claim is believable (even without Iece's confirmation) - is town

Which means our scum is in the list of LC, Joh, Andruis, FF, Jack, Plum. I re-read the game keeping the above 4 points in mind - I'd suggest you give it a go too. This is what I got:

a) Strong town read on Plum
b) Get a VI feeling on FF; shouldn't say VI - rather a person who does not have any additional secret info about the game. Also FF cannot be paired with LC. LC has been behind FF for most of the game; right off the bat. However I could be mistaken here as "Is he at L-2?" sounds concerned.
c) Jack cannot be paired with Andruis

So I would say that FF is town in the set of 5 and the scum teams are {LC, Andruis} and {Joh, Jack}.

P.S: I would also venture to say that Jack is prob-GF role because of the AlGm paranoia.

[Iecerint]

Why do you think there are 2 scum teams of equal size as such? That seems highly bizarre, especially inasmuch as both scum kills would have to have been blocked given Almatown.

[Iecerint]

Oh, I missed your earlier post. I'd assumed that Poseidon was town.

[Iecerint]

Hmm. Both teams cross-killing the opposite GF is a little bit of a stretch. I guess there's also role-blocking and doctoring that may've come into play, but it's still probably lower-probability than one scumteam or AlmaGF (even if your setup is slightly more elegant). He could always have built-in hidden conditions where Poseidon can't start with the token or whatever.

Another possible problem with your theory is that Poseidon's team is at an a priori advantage, because Poseidon is less scummy than Hades via flavor.

I want other players to reflect on this possibility, though.

[Jack]

unvote

I'm too busy right now to do this. But assuming SD and Iec are masons is very weird. The fact that they are both majorly protecting alma is looking bad right now.

I will check ooba's setup speculation more thoroughly, but I'm pretty sure it's wrong.

[Jack]

At least SD-Iec is a confirmed pair. Glad I wasn't swinging at windmills with that.

[Jack]

I am trying to determine whether I have perceived selective brilliance on your part.

What did you mean by this post Iec?

[Iecerint]

But assuming SD and Iec are masons is very weird. The fact that they are both majorly protecting alma is looking bad right now.

Huh x2? O.o

[Iecerint]

Because you were like OMG THERE IS CLEARLY A CXN BETWEEN THE TWO OF YOU I CAN SEE IT and I was like Christ take a hint bro.