Open 209: The Invasion of Liten (Game Over)

[Slaxx]

any particular reasoning?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

No. It's a gut read.

[xRECKONERx]

Why is SPS scum?

I don't know, why is anyone scum in this game?

See, this is the kind of bullshit that makes me suggest you retire from the game of mafia.

[Slaxx]

I would agree that Deathnote's playstyle is...frustrating.

[Alduskkel]

Tired right now, have a bit of a headache. Any post I make now will be kind of lame. I'll get to this game soon, promise (unless a bunch of walls pop up, but I hope not).

I can answer something right now though -- I have a slight Town read on SPS. Basically I don't buy the case on him, and I haven't really spotted anything significant from him, although speaking of which I'd like to see more content from him (yes this is a bit hypocritical coming from me).

[Furry]

I think Pul is the best bet for scum A, and little below the halfway point for scum B. Not the ideal lynch for today since im more happy with a top B pick, but if it was going to be Pul or DN, it should be obvious where my vote is going to be.

Eh... what's the case? You unvoted me after my defensive post, and have yet to make any new points. The only point I saw was

Its why im not voting you hun. I still think you are a better bet for A than Sniper though so am fine with just leaving that there for now.

You work as a partner to Nik, almost purely for the fact that you were not a part of that wagon. Yes I fully conced that I also work for that reason, but I see no way the partner to Nik is NOT in one of the players voting not-nik, which is [you/me/SPS/Sniper].

I don't agree with that attack for two reasons. (which I've already stated) One, I would have sealed the the Max lynch to defend Nika. (which SFG thought I would do anyway) and Two. I believe in Bussing so while I think Sniper spot is Scum A, I believe enough in bussing that I'm not writing others off as possibilities.

It would have been an eyebrow raise for you to have hammered Max there. Not that it was the worst move possible, but Max-town and Nik-scum would have led to a very quick lynch of you. Also unless Nik partner was 100% convinced that Max was town, they would never have bussed. Max-scum lynch give a bit of a breather to Nik, and credits Nik-partner with a scum lynch. Its not impossible, but its improbable.

Back to other stuff now

I would agree that Deathnote's playstyle is...frustrating.

Agreed, but he still ends up being town in this situation. We just have to keep him on the right track

[Furry]

Like most of the posts, it seems that Adul just wants sniper dead to get him out of the way

No shit. I desperately wanted him out of the way. I still do. I don't know if you support policy lynches, but I do, and we don't agree that doesn't make me scummy. Also, Sniper was scummy anyway. I can reiterate points I've said before... or you can do some homework and find them yourself. Pulindar has provided evidence against Sniper as well.

Do you support a policy lynch of him at this point in time? If you still want that lynch reitterating the points would be nice.

also is setting himself up for a town [Nicodemus] and prob-town [Haylen] wagon the next day.

Okay, Haylen/DN is not prob-town. I'd put him as neutral right now, and Haylen was DEFINITELY scummy due to active lurking. As for Nicodemus, you have to view this with the knowledge of Day 1. Namely, there was none, at least there were no flips. A bunch of people thought Nicodemus were scum. That's why he was lynched. Do you suspect those people?

To an extent, yes it is a tell on the wagon. It doesnt detract from the fact that you were visably setting up for getting on two wagons, one which is proven town and one which is my second strongest town read at this juncture.

[2) Early D2 again centers around policy as opposed to scumhunting.

Haylen, it's Day 2 and the Scummies are over. I DEMAND CONTENT. Until then, Vote: Haylen.
---
I'm also curious to see whether Sniper will be replaced.

Odd that haylen is chosen over sniper, but again we are paying attention to lurkers.

Haylen was chosen because, as I said, I wanted to see improvement in play from Haylen as IIRC she said she played better later on and the scummies were over.

So it was a pressure vote? Sniper was the "better" lynch?

3) Insistant lurker hunting - I have zero clue if this is meta, but you have done nothing but try and get the lurkers lynched as opposed to actually forming a case.

Accusing someone of lurking is a case.

More of a supplement then anything else really, some players will always lurk, although on some occasions it is a tell. Is it meta for you to lurker hunt?

4) Adul day three fits scum B motive.

I'm hopefully going to do (or at least work on) a reread/skimming looking for Nikanor connections. For all of you who are trying to figure out whether we should be lynching Rebels or Arkons, well, I'll just settle for lynching any scum at all. The remaining Rebel might become clear if we just do some hunting. If anyone has any good theories for Arkon scum though, I'll hear them, I just think they're less likely to be caught at the moment.

This is very likely coming from scum B. Remember what I said about if we decide to lynch A there are going to be a couple people who we dont pay any attention too? Remember who is one of those people? Yep.

Yeah I don't really follow you at all. How is the quoted post relevant?

"We should lynch scum. Im going to look for who is A, that should be easier to get after doing research. If someone wants to give theory on B ok, but lynching B is more likely to be a mislynch"

Personally, I'd PREFER to lynch scum B (arkons) since then we can hope for cross kills. On the other hand I think we have a better chance of lynching the remaining scum A by supplementing our suspicions with Nikanor links. It's a toss-up really, but like I've said before, I'd prefer to just lynch any scum at all and not worry so much about the type.

Suddenly there is a clear interest in B lynch, even though it continues to be stressed that an A lynch is the safer option of the two.

Scum A is not "safer." It's easier. And we SHOULD lynch Scum B today, if we can. Do you disagree? If we lynch Scum A today we're headed for MYLO tomorrow.

Most of your early day attention seems to be fixated on A. Also im still not of the boat "B is obviously the better lynch". I would be perfectly fine with an A lynch today, since with a B one its not a cakewalk if crosskills dont pan out, and I dont think scum will try to crosskill with B lynch.

The case [on haylen] literally is "not contributing, active lurking". Thats it, in a position where if there isnt a scum lynch town cant win without help from scum. This does not fit the bill of how town would go about it.

But lack of content late in the game is even worse. It means that you've squandered a bunch of posts but still haven't given much analysis, and haven't given others something to analyze. Just as an example: Has Sniper ever analyzed anything? Have we ever analyzed him? We never quote Sniper and argue with him. We just let him be, annoyingly enough.

There are other ways to catch lurker scum, like ties to dead scum, and PoE of other players. I just really dont like how every case not related to activity has been ignored by you for the most part.

[SaintKerrigan]

The Mod Has a Wicked Idea for the Ultimate Bastard Setup Vote Count

(2) Pulindar: xRECKONERx, Steam-Powered Shovel
(1) Slaxx: DeathNote
(1) xRECKONERx: Alduskkel

(2) Alduskkel: SFG, Furry

Not Voting: Pulindar, Slaxx

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Deadline is on Friday, April 30th, 2010, at 8:00 p.m. CST.

[SFG]

k the definite deadline for my last mega-essay of doom is on Saturday at midnight (between sat. and sun.) I know that's after deadline but theres nothing I can do other than rapidly pull enough text out of my ass to write the longest two papers I've ever written in my entire life and pray to God that it ends up okay. I'm sorry to have disrupted my playing so much at such an important time in the game X_X

[Slaxx]

Right now I'm fighting to keep a scholarship, so I understand. School>Mafia. Sometimes.

[DeathNote]

ok out of Ald and Puli, I would rather lynch Ald.

unvote

Vote: Alduskkel

Especially since SPS is voting the other person.

[Slaxx]

Interesting how Deathnote votes Al when there are competing wagons on Puli and Al.

Why Al>Puli?

[Alduskkel]

Do you support a policy lynch of [Reckoner] at this point in time? If you still want that lynch reitterating the points would be nice.

Probably not a policy lynch. As it stands I think I will

Unvote

.

also is setting himself up for a town [Nicodemus] and prob-town [Haylen] wagon the next day.

Okay, Haylen/DN is not prob-town. I'd put him as neutral right now, and Haylen was DEFINITELY scummy due to active lurking. As for Nicodemus, you have to view this with the knowledge of Day 1. Namely, there was none, at least there were no flips. A bunch of people thought Nicodemus were scum. That's why he was lynched. Do you suspect those people?

To an extent, yes it is a tell on the wagon. It doesnt detract from the fact that you were visably setting up for getting on two wagons, one which is proven town and one which is my second strongest town read at this juncture.

I don't see how you can call DN your second strongest town read. And yes, I was basically fueling Nico/Haylen lynches. That's a fact, I can't dispute that. I've given my town spin to it, and if you think it's unlikely I'd like to hear why.

[2) Early D2 again centers around policy as opposed to scumhunting.

Haylen, it's Day 2 and the Scummies are over. I DEMAND CONTENT. Until then, Vote: Haylen.
---
I'm also curious to see whether Sniper will be replaced.

Odd that haylen is chosen over sniper, but again we are paying attention to lurkers.

Haylen was chosen because, as I said, I wanted to see improvement in play from Haylen as IIRC she said she played better later on and the scummies were over.

So it was a pressure vote? Sniper was the "better" lynch?

It was definitely for pressure. Didn't work though, and unfortunately some people are just very annoying about never posting much content. I think you have to try, though.

3) Insistant lurker hunting - I have zero clue if this is meta, but you have done nothing but try and get the lurkers lynched as opposed to actually forming a case.

Accusing someone of lurking is a case.

More of a supplement then anything else really, some players will always lurk, although on some occasions it is a tell. Is it meta for you to lurker hunt?

Well, let's dig around a bit. It's been a while since I've been Town in a normal game, but here are some examples:

Unvote, Vote: VertFire. Of all the players you are contributing the least to discussion (purple princess is excused because she can't be doing it as a strategy; she is getting replaced after all) and you're setting yourself up to pile onto YankCane, who probably just can't express himself that well.

In short, I think VertFire is lurker scum who's poised to bandwagon.

I'd like to see how he's going to follow up on 139 though.

(Vertfire was Town).

Vote: YankCane151. He basically claimed Vanilla, that's all I was waiting for. He's not contributing, and that's anti-Town.

Kind of similar to what was happening with Sniper IIRC, although YankCane was better. He was also Town, though.

Socrates: I like his posts, but he's also lurking.

Zhero: Like Socrates except I don't like his posts as much. They're less substantial IMO.

Socrates and Zhero were the scum team.

Aaaaand Snow_Bunny apparently browsed this very section of the forum and then decided to NOT POST because she is not in the active users list.

FoS: Snow_Bunny.

Active lurker hunting. Snow_Bunny was Town.

However, I will Vote: gocanucksgo for what d3x said in the post right above this (lurking and bandwagoning). I'd much rather off inactive players than active players, as long as they have similar amounts of scumminess. Finally, FoS: Zeofar for lurking. Consider this removed if he gets replaced.

gocanucksgo was scum, Zeofar was Town.

That should be plenty! I have a whole wiki entry with links to all of my games, feel free to go crazy with the meta.

Come to think of it, not a terrible hit rate. That's what, 3/7 scum there accused of lurking? Small sample size but that's kind of interesting.

There are other ways to catch lurker scum, like ties to dead scum, and PoE of other players.

Well, right now I think trying to tie people to Nikanor will result in Sniper or Pulindar coming up as scum, at least that's my guess. I don't really feel comfortable crossing people out to do PoE right now.
---
Right now SFG and DN really need to explain why my defense is inadequate. DN hasn't even accused me of anything.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Most of your early day attention seems to be fixated on A. Also im still not of the boat "B is obviously the better lynch". I would be perfectly fine with an A lynch today, since with a B one its not a cakewalk if crosskills dont pan out, and I dont think scum will try to crosskill with B lynch.

Not the first Night, no. But it does leave open the possibility. It's essentially pretty simple. If we lynch perfectly, then the order doesn't matter and we'll win. Lynching A means we have to lynch perfectly, not doing so means we have alternative ways of winning. (For example, if we mislynch today, the town can't afford to lynch xReck unless there's a crosskill, so xReck won't shoot scum B that Night, but scum B may well decide to take out xReck thereby ensuring they only need one mislynch to win. (Assuming xReck is scum A here.))

ok out of Ald and Puli, I would rather lynch Ald.

unvote

Vote: Alduskkel

Especially since

SPS is voting the other person.

Pulindar is my partner.

Fixed!

[SFG]

I think DN thinks you are scum, SPS.
Also can someone tell me what PoE means real quick?

[xRECKONERx]

Ald doesn't scream scum to me.
More votes on Pulindar plz.

[Furry]

This is going to be short because im posting in between classes

Most of your early day attention seems to be fixated on A. Also im still not of the boat "B is obviously the better lynch". I would be perfectly fine with an A lynch today, since with a B one its not a cakewalk if crosskills dont pan out, and I dont think scum will try to crosskill with B lynch.

Not the first Night, no. But it does leave open the possibility. It's essentially pretty simple. If we lynch perfectly, then the order doesn't matter and we'll win. Lynching A means we have to lynch perfectly, not doing so means we have alternative ways of winning. (For example, if we mislynch today, the town can't afford to lynch xReck unless there's a crosskill, so xReck won't shoot scum B that Night, but scum B may well decide to take out xReck thereby ensuring they only need one mislynch to win. (Assuming xReck is scum A here.))

Yes, lynch of A (followed by no lynch) puts us in a 3:2 endgame, where what happens on the first lynch likely decides the game. Lynching B followed by no cross kill puts us at 3:1:1, where we still need two successful lynches. Scum shooting for crosskill makes its 4:1 with a B lynch, meaning they would need two mislynches. Even if we lynch B, chances are scum arent going to intentionally help us.

Ive played as scum in a 8:2:2 open, I know a little more about the thought process as scum than most in this.

Also can someone tell me what PoE means real quick?

Process of elimination. Saying "scum cant be X or Y, so Z is scum"

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I think DN thinks you are scum, SPS.

That's what he claims, sure, I got that. I was merely suggesting that wasn't the real reason for his vote.

Yes, lynch of A (followed by no lynch) puts us in a 3:2 endgame, where what happens on the first lynch likely decides the game. Lynching B followed by no cross kill puts us at 3:1:1, where we still need two successful lynches. Scum shooting for crosskill makes its 4:1 with a B lynch, meaning they would need two mislynches. Even if we lynch B, chances are scum arent going to intentionally help us.

I agreed with you that the scum won't go for a crosskill if we lynch scum B the first Night. As long as the town keeps lynching correctly, scum have very little motive to go after the other group. If, on the other hand, we mislynch, then still having 2 scum groups could save our bacon.

[SaintKerrigan]

Deadline is two days away. There will be no further deadline extensions. You have been reminded.

The What the Hell, I Might as Well Do a Vote Count

(2) Pulindar: xRECKONERx, Steam-Powered Shovel

(3) Alduskkel: SFG, Furry, DeathNote

Not Voting: Pulindar, Slaxx, Alduskkel

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Deadline is on Friday, April 30th, 2010, at 8:00 p.m. CST.

[Alduskkel]

We all know how this is gonna go down. Pulindar will vote for me based only on gut and the fact that he doesn't want to be lynched, and I'll get lynched instead.

Meanwhile, two of my attackers (SFG and Furry) are too damn busy to respond to my defenses in time for them to realize they should unvote, especially SFG. DN is just doing whatever.

[SaintKerrigan]

Pulindar has received his second prod.

[Haylen]

Oooooh I'm gonna do a Vote Count too Vote Count

(2) Pulindar: xRECKONERx, Steam-Powered Shovel
(3) Alduskkel: SFG, Furry, DeathNote

Not Voting: Pulindar, Slaxx, Alduskkel

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Deadline is on Friday, April 30th, 2010, at 8:00 p.m. CST.

[xRECKONERx]

Hey DeathNote, if you're town, vote Pulindar.

and WTF HAYLEN

You do realise I'm the co-mod, right:? ~ Hayl

[SFG]

Ald I still believe that the only person more likely to be scum is reck and I already discussed why i would prefer your lynch to his. I'm sorry that I'm too busy dying over here to give you a definitive "why" but there isn't anything I can do (other than miss my deadlines for my projects).

[xRECKONERx]

You posted the same votecount, Haylen.

BAD COMOD. BAD.

PS this tunneling on me is bullshit stop now pl0x