Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[Ellibereth]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 9

Sando

- 2 -

mb53

,

PranaDevil

- (L-7)

mb53

- 1 -

Sando

- (L-8)

Zoiaum

- 1 -

Parama

- (L-8)

Players not voting:12keyblade, CryMeARiver, Dramonic, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Socrates, Zang, Zoiaum

I stand by the previously stated Zoai, Dram, Sando scum I stated waaaay previously.

Ok. I shouldn't take a break into between writing a sentence. >.<

[DrippingGoofball]

I think there's going to be more bus'ing on the Day 1 lynch than the Day 2 lynch. Scum likes to get town cred early, but if they think they got it on Day 1, there' not going to sacrifice a buddy Day 2 if they can avoid it at all.

Look at those simplified colors. This is one heck of a green wagon.

Porkens

-

Pomegranate

,

Parama

, Socrates,

Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

, PranaDevil,

Ellibereth

, mb53,

manho

, 12keyblade,

DrippingGoofball

Now, Socrates wouldn't be the third voter on this wagon if he were scum.

I think there's one scum among Prana, mb53, and 12keyblade. Which one, depends on when and how they hopped on. Probably AFTER it looked like a done deal and a hopeless situation. NOT BEFORE.

[Parama]

Para: I missed why you said Sando was town.

His behavior + his placement on the draft.
I don't think scum would crowd three of there members into the top 4 if they could avoid it. Really, it benefits them to have a few scum farther down the list.
DGB, 12keyblade is town. Do not argue this with me. If I am wrong then I deserve to lose because of it.

[DrippingGoofball]

Here's another theory. It's possible that no scum member was on BOTH wagons. One of the other.

[DrippingGoofball]

Para: I missed why you said Sando was town.

His behavior + his placement on the draft.
I don't think scum would crowd three of there members into the top 4 if they could avoid it. Really, it benefits them to have a few scum farther down the list.
DGB, 12keyblade is town. Do not argue this with me. If I am wrong then I deserve to lose because of it.

That leaves PranaDevil who claimed vig or mb53.

[Parama]

So by your theory:

sorasgoof

- CryMeARiver, Zoiaum,

Pomegranate

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Parama

,

12keyblade

, Zang,

Porkens

, Fate,

PranaDevil

,

Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

, Dramonic

Porkens

-

Pomegranate

,

Parama

, Socrates,

Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

,

PranaDevil

, Ellibereth, mb53,

manho

,

12keyblade

,

DrippingGoofball

Leaves us a lot of lynching room.
And tbh I think both mb and Prana are town.

[DrippingGoofball]

Ellibereth is town. You can take that to the bank for cash.

I'll eat my hat if Socrates is scum and early-bus'ed his buddy after a Day 1 scum lynch.

[DrippingGoofball]

Of all the players on the sorasgoof wagon, the player most likely to be bus'ing is Dramonic. His insistence on lynching sorasgoof bordered on the irrational.

There are 5 unreavealed players on this wagon. I bet 2 are scum. One at least.

[Ellibereth]

LOOK AT THIS MY WAY

sorasgoof

-

CryMeARiver

,

Zoiaum

,

Pomegranate, DrippingGoofball, Parama, 12keyblade, Zang

,

Porkens

,

Fate, PranaDevil, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

,

Dramonic

Porkens

-

Pomegranate, Parama, Socrates, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, PranaDevil, Ellibereth, mb53, manho, 12keyblade, DrippingGoofball

[DrippingGoofball]

B

E

A

U

T

I

F

U

L

[Socrates]

Obviously I shouldn't be trusted to make my own decisions with the track record I have had so far this game.

Who should I vote?

[DrippingGoofball]

Iso Zoiaum.

He knew soras was scum. Read carefully. Do you see what I see?

[Socrates]

I think so. He never even considered the possibility of a Sorastown and was setting you up to be Sora's scumbuddy from his first post. I'd be willing to vote there.

[Hoopla]

At least I know Socrates is town.

Pom, who did you track last night?

[Fate]

HOLY *** GUYS

I WAS SECOND ON THE PORKENS WAGON! I UNVOTED LATER TO AVOID QUICKHAMMER. I DEMAND SPYREX EDIT ALL THESE POSTS WITH FALSE WAGON INFORMATION! MY TOWNINESS MUST BE HEARD

In other news Ellie and DGB need to stop being obv mason buddies, cause then I have to lynch Elli when DGB flips scum.

*waits for Pom some more*

[Hoopla]

Those trying to glean information from yesterday's wagon are silly - we had confirmed scum. There is little to no credit dished out for players on/off the wagon.

Fate, what are the chances of Sando or dramonic being scum?

[Fate]

Well that too Hoopla, but if they were going to be silly and analyze it, they may as well have their facts straight.

Sando is more likely scum than DGB and Dramonic right now.

Somewhere around 70%.

Speaking of wagon analysis, I want my vote on here early regardless of what Pom has to say (besides that Sando is scum.)

##Vote: Sando

You did track Sando, right Pom?

[Hoopla]

You think scum got 3 of the top 4 picks?

[Fate]

1. If Zoiaum is town, Socrates is likely scum.
2. If Socrates is scum, the die rolls done were setup by scum
3. If scum had an even

better

chance than they normally did, with a bit of magic and luck:

Yes scum could have. It isn't likely, but hey we're bound to mislynch one of these days...

[Hoopla]

DGB, what was the role you were trying to get?

[Hoopla]

2,12 sorasgoof (Even-Night-Vig)

10,1 Pomegranate (Tracker)

11,7 Sando

12,3 Porkens (Odd-Night-Vig)

13,7 Dramonic

1,1 SerialClergyman (Watcher)
1,1 manho (Redirector)

3,6 Socrates

*

3,6 Zoiaum
5,4 Ellibereth

*

5,15 Drippinggoofball (Vanilla)

6,1 superawesomemegapimp (Vanilla)
6,2 Budja (Vanilla)

7,3 Fate
7,11 Parama (Vanilla Janitor)
4,5 PranaDevil
4,7 CryMeARiver (Vanilla Gunsmith)
4,8 12keyblade
9,2 Zang
9,4 Faraday

*

9,9 Hoopla

*

9,15 mb53 (Vanilla Backup)

*

*

Asterix denotes dice rollers. Fate, Keyblade and Parama were not counted as dice rollers, as they either changed their roll or left themself the option to change.

Interestingly we've whittled down the neighbourhoods (X numbers) to 7, after eliminating the 6's and 1's. So, I think we're almost at the stage where we can guess with a decent amount of accuracy what sort of number combination scum picked. Here are my conclusions;

- At most there is one scum in the 9 group. Zang is very likely to be town, for if he was scum he had no incentive to choose 9, and surely his scumteam would have told him to change if he wasn't paying attention himself.
- Fate rolled 9 and then bailed, changing his number to 7. This is likelier to be a scum move concerned about self interest, rather than upholding something he committed himself to. If true, it paints the 9 group in a townier light.
- At most there is one scum in the 4 group, due to none of them being dice rollers. It is highly likely the last 3 scum are in separate groups.
- If none of the 9's is scum, one of Sando/dramonic or the 7's is highly likely to be scum. This is due to scum quite likely wanting to spread their numbers out, rather than putting them all together. This is also the same reasoning against a dramonic/Sando scumteam because I doubt scum would choose 2, 11, 12, 13 as their numbers. At most they would have chosen two high numbers.
- Socrates probably isn't scum, because I think he wouldn't have gone for both vigs with the high draft picks. He is a dominant character (just look at the sign-up thread), he is very likely to lead his team if he was scum, and I think he genuinely believed massclaim could break the game.
- The gunsmith, whoever that is, is almost certainly town. Scum have no incentive to take gunsmith if they're going for the vigs. It could be a useful role-cop type role if they decided not to take the vigs, but they didn't.
- The janitor not claiming means whoever it is, is scum.
- Scum probably chose at least one (but probably two) of 3, 4, 5 so they had a decent chance of winning the draft.

Here is my scumteam predictions;

One of Sando/dramonic, One of Zoiaum/12Keyblade/Prana (probably Zoiaum). I could see one of DGB/Elli being scum, but I'm not sure about either yet. I also have my eye on the 7's group, but I'm thinking town/town. Parama probably isn't scum, because if everyone above him dies without there being a Janitor, it is curtains for him (unless he is scum with whoever the Janitor is, but I doubt it).

If there is only one point you take away from this post, make it this;

It looks very likely at this point that the remaining scum are on 3 different numbers, and if true, we should be eliminating entire neighbourhoods (ie; single numbers) to minimise the amount of possible scumteams.

[DrippingGoofball]

HOLY *** GUYS

I WAS SECOND ON THE PORKENS WAGON! I UNVOTED LATER TO AVOID QUICKHAMMER. I DEMAND SPYREX EDIT ALL THESE POSTS WITH FALSE WAGON INFORMATION! MY TOWNINESS MUST BE HEARD

In other news Ellie and DGB need to stop being obv mason buddies, cause then I have to lynch Elli when DGB flips scum.

*waits for Pom some more*

Who said you were scum???

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, what was the role you were trying to get?

Watcher. I really like Watcher. More than Tracker. I thought it wouldn't be uber-popular.

[Hoopla]

DGB, what was the role you were trying to get?

Watcher. I really like Watcher. More than Tracker. I thought it wouldn't be uber-popular.

I think I know what's going on...

Hey DGB, is Sando scum? Rank these players in terms of scumminess; Sando, dramonic, Zoiaum.

[DrippingGoofball]

I think so. He never even considered the possibility of a Sorastown and was setting you up to be Sora's scumbuddy from his first post. I'd be willing to vote there.

That's EXACTLY what I saw, so it's not my imagination.

Also if Zoium flips scum, it clears Socrates as town because they can't be buddies picking the same numbers.

His numbers (3.6) also fit with Hoopla's theory.

I'm going to take a look at Sando in iso now, he's been flying under my radar.