Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[Sando]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 1 - Ellibereth - (L-11)

Fate

- 1 - Sando - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 1 - Socrates - (L-11)

manho

- 1 - Parama - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Faraday, Hoopla, SerialClergyman, Porkens - (L-8)

sorasgoof

- 7 - Fate, Dramonic, PranaDevil, CryMeARiver, DrippingGoofball, Pomegranate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-5)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, mb53, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum

No, each townie has a 23.5% chance of noone else choosing their number, putting them into the top ranks.

[manho]

Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.

the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.

[Sando]

the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.

Oh, I'm not trying to argue with you, you're completely right, there are more scum in the solo-numbers than average, on average.

I was merely pointing out that people were wrong in saying that the top spot is more likely to be scum than town. Comparing it to other spots, sure, but town are still nearly 3 times more likely to be in the slot.

[manho]

P(scum|no one choosing their number)=1.55/(1.55+0.5+3.52)=0.28
P(scum)=5/22=0.23

so we are actually more likely to find scum in the top 5 spots than a random spot.

we get a 28% chance to catch scum in the top 5 spots, which is higher than the 23% chance when we are considering all players.

[manho]

I was merely pointing out that people were wrong in saying that the top spot is more likely to be scum than town.

who is saying that? i think i've missed it.

[manho]

Here's the plan: Fate goes "I GOTZ ROLE INFO LYNCH PLOX." Soras flips town. Fate goes "OH GEE I MESSED UP." Town goes "Oh you rascal, you, Fate! You're too crazy to actually be scum!" and muss his hair up "Why don't you go sit in the corner while the grown ups find the real scum!"

Seriously. That's what he has been doing this entire game.

And it has been working apparently. =_=

that's interesting.

[Sando]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

[Porkens]

My instinct tells me that something is off with your math, either in the initial calculation or interpretation of the results.

Sadly, I can't show my work at this time, so for now I bow to your numbers for now.

[SpyreX]

God you guys were busy - Please let me know if anything seems TRULY off in the votecounts

[Socrates]

Your parser is reading votes that have been quoted.

I have not voted Manho, nor do I plan to, but I DID quote Parama's post where HE did.

[Zoiaum]

Sorry again guys, had trouble reading everything.
Ill keep it short, my thoughts:

1) Faraday looks scummy as hell, he jumped the initial wagon to lynch Prana right away w/o justfying or saying anything. Then he jumped the wagon to lynch Pomegranate just after hoopla w/o any reasoning.

2) DrippingGoofball is scum for defending soras with all his forces, which imo make soras even more scummier.

So i hope we are right.

##vote sorasgoof

And SpyreX what Socrates said is true, your parser is reading votes on quotes, see post 528 and 531 for example.

[SerialClergyman]

So much maths for such a little conclusion. People at the top are more likely to be power roles and scum, but notn ecesasrily by much. Gg'd.

I think the soras wagon is decent.

I personally think it's definitely time for Fate to stop playing whatever game he's playing and spit out everything. Because it's a huge distraction for me and probably everybody else that he keeps using that trigger word 'role-based' when I doubt he should be.

[SerialClergyman]

Zoiaum - what's with finding two people scummy, one of them specifically for not providing reasons with his vote, then joining the leading wagon without a reason?

[Budja]

Back from V/LA and will read/catch up soon.

(I'm tired ATM so I may not get a post out until tomorrow).

[Fate]

Because it's a huge distraction for me and probably everybody else that he keeps using that trigger word 'role-based' when I doubt he should be.

Just changed 'role-based' out for 'knows more than the rest of the general popluace' if that makes you happy.

Can't we all just read between the lines?

ReSomebody: Yes I'm scum with soras, now please follow through with the plan, let me bus the #1 scum PR and look awesome D2.
ReSocrates: Wrong. Soras is going to flip scum.

[Zoiaum]

Zoiaum - what's with finding two people scummy, one of them specifically for not providing reasons with his vote, then joining the leading wagon without a reason?

Read my post again.

I may be wrong but i think the Dgb attitude of super-protecting sorasgoof suspicious as i stated on my post.

And if think both of them are scum i might as well vote on the one that has more votes even if it means jumping on a wagon. And as you said, i think the soras wagon is decent.

[Parama]

just ios'ed sorasgoof, and he is town.

.
Soras is scum.
Manho is scum. DGB doesn't understand why by DGB doesn't want to read a

Hey look! Manho calls soras town without providing any reason!

[SerialClergyman]

And the logic is the wrong way round. If you think DGB is hyper-defending someone because she's scum with them, why would you vote the person she's defending rather than her? It's logically more sound (because scum can defend townies in a scummy way too) and while soras is a guranteed power role, dgb has claimed vanilla.

I think that, and therefore you, are very suspicious.

[Fate]

Serial you got it all wrong. Just look at Zoiaum's join date.

Anyway yeah manho is probscum out of the 1,1 pair Parama, but we're not lynching him today.

Join a real wagon pl0x.

[Zang]

I thought I was voting soras

Vote: SorasGoof

[SerialClergyman]

The fact that Fate plays the newbie card for him is not a point in his favour.

[Fate]

I thought I was voting soras

Vote: SorasGoof

The VC is all sorts of wrong, Spyrex needs to wake up. (DGB is voting for soras? lulz)

And also it is ##.

Lol ok SC now its Zoiaum+Me as a scumteam?

Who are you voting again?

[SerialClergyman]

Nope, it's a bad excuse from a player with suspect reasoning. I'm not saying you're scum together, I'm saying I completely reject your proxy defense for him.

[Fate]

I'm just saying I think it is a newbtown tell to think "wow he's defending that guy soo much! They must be scum together!" instead of considering the possibility of DGB being scum trying to look good by defending Soras.

And then I look at his join date and I get confirmation bias. *shrug*

[Hoopla]

What's the soras case beyond winning the draft?