Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[manho]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 1 - Ellibereth - (L-11)

Fate

- 1 - Sando - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 1 - Socrates - (L-11)

manho

- 1 - Parama - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Faraday, Hoopla, SerialClergyman, Porkens - (L-8)

sorasgoof

- 7 - Fate, Dramonic, PranaDevil, CryMeARiver, DrippingGoofball, Pomegranate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-5)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, mb53, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum

just ios'ed sorasgoof, and he is town.

[manho]

Numberfail

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye

(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate

nay

(9): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama, 12Keyblade

Not voting (3): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11

[Sando]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

[dramonic]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

first, 3,5 when compared to 1,5 is 233%
second, its clear not everyone randomly picked.

[Pomegranate]

But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.

[Sando]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

first, 3,5 when compared to 1,5 is 233%
second, its clear not everyone randomly picked.

Mason aren't town now?

[dramonic]

more like 15 with the "brilliant" strategy in the queue.

[manho]

fate is claiming role-related info that sorasgoof is scum, and i bet he will be asked to claim sooner or later. and with all the vanilla claim, lynched, killed, vigged person's flip, we will have already know more than a third of the role. it will be super easy for scum to fake claim then. so why not have a massclaim first, before asking fate to claim?

[dramonic]

@Sando: Erm... riiiight. You didn't have to split them X_X
@Manho: The only type of role-related infor that could indicate Soras is scum to Fate is if he's his scumbuddy.

[manho]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

but town are more likely to be in any other spot than scum, as we have more town than scum. the point matters is that the top spot has a higher chance to be scum

than other spot

.

[Sando]

But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.

This is taken into account.

Each scum has a (14/15)^17 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each mason has a (14/15)^20 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each town has a (14/15)^21 chance of noone choosing their number.

Scum - 30.95%
Mason - 25.16%
Town - 23.48%

5 scum x 30.95% = 1.55
2 Mason x 25.16% = 0.5
15 Townie x 23.48 = 3.52

There, you have my complete reasoning. Now can we lynch Fate please.

[dramonic]

where do you get the (14/15)^21 exactly?
Because I am pretty sure your conclusion is incorrect

[Socrates]

@Manho: The only type of role-related infor that could indicate Soras is scum to Fate is if he's his scumbuddy.

Then why are you voting Soras and not Fate?

[dramonic]

ah, got it, nvm
It still sound wrong, but the math is fine.

[dramonic]

@Manho: The only type of role-related infor that could indicate Soras is scum to Fate is if he's his scumbuddy.

Then why are you voting Soras and not Fate?

because if they're scumbuddies we might as well lynch the one at the top of the draft <<
Alternatively, there is something that I'm not getting that make Fate have info (unlikely)
third option is he just wants us all the STHU and lynch Soras so stuff can develop.

I think option 3 is the likelier one and am not against it.

[manho]

P(scum|no one choosing their number)=1.55/(1.55+0.5+3.52)=0.28
P(scum)=5/22=0.23

so we are actually more likely to find scum in the top 5 spots than a random spot.

[Socrates]

@Manho: The only type of role-related infor that could indicate Soras is scum to Fate is if he's his scumbuddy.

Then why are you voting Soras and not Fate?

because if they're scumbuddies we might as well lynch the one at the top of the draft <<
Alternatively, there is something that I'm not getting that make Fate have info (unlikely)
third option is he just wants us all the STHU and lynch Soras so stuff can develop.

I think option 3 is the likelier one and am not against it.

Wait, so you think Fate - as

town

- is lying about role related info just to get someone lynched he has no business trying to get lynched ('cause, you know, without said role related info there's no real reason to think he is scum) AND you are fine with this?

Are you Fate's scumbuddy?

[manho]

i think the 3rd option is that Fate is scum and hoping to get the first spot town lynched.

[dramonic]

No, I just expect this kind of behaviour from town-Fate.

[manho]

but why would a town-fate lie to get an unknown-sorasgoof lynched?

[dramonic]

because a town-fate is convinced he has scum-soras pinned?
We should really just ask him to clear this up <<

[Socrates]

Here's the plan: Fate goes "I GOTZ ROLE INFO LYNCH PLOX." Soras flips town. Fate goes "OH GEE I MESSED UP." Town goes "Oh you rascal, you, Fate! You're too crazy to actually be scum!" and muss his hair up "Why don't you go sit in the corner while the grown ups find the real scum!"

Seriously. That's what he has been doing this entire game.

And it has been working apparently. =_=

[Porkens]

But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.

This is taken into account.

Each scum has a (14/15)^17 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each mason has a (14/15)^20 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each town has a (14/15)^21 chance of noone choosing their number.

Scum - 30.95%
Mason - 25.16%
Town - 23.48%

5 scum x 30.95% = 1.55
2 Mason x 25.16% = 0.5
15 Townie x 23.48 = 3.52

There, you have my complete reasoning. Now can we lynch Fate please.

There is no need to multiply, is there? You've already shown that the scum, as a group, have a 30.95% chance to pick the lowest unique number, while masons have 25.16, and town have a 23.48.

I think you also mean to divide, here.

30.95% / 5= 6.19% (each individual scum has a 6% chance to pick the LUN)
25.16% / 2= 12.58% (each individual mason has a 13% chance to pick the LUN)
23.48% / 15= 1.57% (each individual townsperson has a 1.57% chance to pick the LUN)

[Sando]

Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.

[Porkens]

Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.

Each townie has a 23.5% chance to get the top spot? There's a serious flaw there, somewhere. It can't be more than 1/22 (4.54%) for any

individual

, regardless of alignment.