Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[Zang]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 1 - Ellibereth - (L-11)

Fate

- 1 - Sando - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 2 - DrippingGoofball, Socrates - (L-10)

manho

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

mb53

- 1 - CryMeARiver - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - SerialClergyman, Porkens, Hoopla, Faraday - (L-8)

sorasgoof

- 6 - Dramonic, PranaDevil, Zang, Fate, Parama, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-6)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, mb53, sorasgoof, Zoiaum

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,

the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.

Man, these laces are never going to get done up.

Yeah, scum have a better chance of noone else choosing their number. My napkin maths puts each scum at around 31% chance of that. Napkin maths puts Masons at ~25% and Town at ~23.5%. So yes, you're right, scum individually have better odds.

However, there's 3 times as many townies compared to scum... and then you've got masons on top of that...

The top spot is most likely to be a townie. But then I'm pretty sure every slot is most likely to be a townie.

PS, my napkin maths is (14/15)^(number people who could choose the same number). So it's:

Scum = (14/15)^17
Mason = (14/15)^20
Townie = (14/15)^21

This only works out the chance of noone else choosing your number though.

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

[Fate]

Zang you have it right on.

Now bold your vote for soras, it never counted.

[Sando]

Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.

Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?

Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?

[Parama]

I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.

[Socrates]

You should join the Hoopla wagon. Its got none of that.

[Parama]

## unvote
## vote: manho

[sorasgoof]

This was my course of action upon seeing this game:

1. Look in thread
2. Post /in
3. Send in (2,12)

I never changed my numbers or even gave them a second thought.

@SAMP- what exactly are your accusations that I'm supposed to be addressing?

[CryMeARiver]

I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.

I agree, I am bored with it. But I like my vote and I still think you and soras are scumbuddies.

[Parama]

I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.

I agree, I am bored with it. But I like my vote and I still think you and soras are scumbuddies.

lolololololololololol

[sorasgoof]

@CMAR- I just sorta-ISOed you, and you've never said anything about me and Parama being scumbuddies ever.

Explain?

[sorasgoof]

EBWOP: I bring this up because you said "still."

[Socrates]

## unvote
## vote: manho

Boo.

[CryMeARiver]

I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.

Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddy

You must be blind then.

[Fate]

Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.

Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?

Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?

The maths were real. And the scum plan, (brilliantly, I'll add once more) was to get me lynched, and then town would be afraid of touching number analysis ever again. AND/OR bus Hoopla, so that when she flipped scum town would go "# ANALYSIS IS ALL LIEZ!" When in fact it was true, and if we had used it at LyLo and lynched Jack instead one of the doubled up numbers, we would have likely won.

Soras choose his numbers then never looked at thread again, apparently. So how did you choose your role?

Random.org?

[dramonic]

"Oh fuck, soras is going down! I thought Fate was too stupid to follow my numbers theory!"-Hoopla
"Let's just have a few of us keep softdefending him"-DGB
"I'm bussing this dumbass! He's a liability!"-Dram
"What should we have him claim so they leave him alive? Vig right? That way we can just redirect his kills and he'll have a few more days to live"-???
"Yeah sounds good."

At least make me polite if you're going to make me scum

[Fate]

"I'll be taking soras out with the trash, to put myself in better standing with the town, chipchip cheerio my good fellow."-politeDramscum

[dramonic]

Thank you Fate, I feel much better now

[Zang]

Zang you have it right on.

Now bold your vote for soras, it never counted.

##Vote: Sorasgoof

[Pomegranate]

"Oh fuck, soras is going down! I thought Fate was too stupid to follow my numbers theory!"-Hoopla
"Let's just have a few of us keep softdefending him"-DGB
"I'm bussing this dumbass! He's a liability!"-Dram
"What should we have him claim so they leave him alive? Vig right? That way we can just redirect his kills and he'll have a few more days to live"-???
"Yeah sounds good."

This sounds about right.

Maybe manho could be the question marks though.

[Parama]

I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.

Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddy

You must be blind then.

I still lololololololol

[CryMeARiver]

I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.

Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddy

You must be blind then.

I still lololololololol

Be more scummy please.

[DrippingGoofball]

Soras is town.

Post 456 smells very truthy.

This wagon must stop immediately.

Now I'm going to look at his wagon and name to the scum riding first class.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

@SAMP- what exactly are your accusations that I'm supposed to be addressing?

that you haven't posted anything meaningful

[PranaDevil]

I be doubting that Parama be scum.

I definitely agree with the Hoopla/Dram feel of scum alongside soras tho'.

[DrippingGoofball]

@SAMP- what exactly are your accusations that I'm supposed to be addressing?

that you haven't posted anything meaningful

He's town.