Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[CryMeARiver]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 2 - Ellibereth, mb53 - (L-10)

Fate

- 1 - Sando - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 2 - DrippingGoofball, Socrates - (L-10)

manho

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

mb53

- 1 - CryMeARiver - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Porkens, Faraday, Hoopla, SerialClergyman - (L-8)

sorasgoof

- 6 - Zang, Fate, Parama, PranaDevil, Dramonic, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-6)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, sorasgoof, Zoiaum

##Unvote

##Vote: sorasgoof

don't have to talk now

I meant that I didn't have time to talk then.

You might want to look up "sarcasm" in the dictionary.

Soras-404 doesn't look like sarcasm to me. It looks like frustrated scum who lost his temper.

And being #1 on the draft doesnt make you scum, but i would think that it is more likely.

That is hilarious Someone did not pass their statistics class.

[CryMeARiver]

##Unvote

##Vote: sorasgoof

don't have to talk now

I meant that I didn't have time to talk then.

You might want to look up "sarcasm" in the dictionary.

Soras-404 doesn't look like sarcasm to me. It looks like frustrated scum who lost his temper.

And being #1 on the draft doesnt make you scum, but i would think that it is more likely.

That is hilarious Someone did not pass their statistics class.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

Guys, you want content? Here you go:

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp

unvote

Vote: Fate

unvote

Vote: CMAR

unvote

Vote: Parama

unvote

Vote: PranaDevil

unvote

Vote: Dramonic

unvote

Look guys, I just contributed A LOT of content!

Major >______________>

Right back at you. Obviously fake votes are lame and meaningless, that says nothing about real votes.

You're still not refuting my accusation against you, and I'm still not unvoting unless you do.

[dramonic]

@DrippingGoofball: If you're asking me why I said what I did in my previous post, this about sums it up.

We can't really be lynching a townie, he's first in the draft order.

I'm referring to vanilla vs PR, not town vs scum.

@Elli: Not really no.

[DrippingGoofball]

And I'm interested in town vs. scum, not vanilla vs PR in a scenario where we lynch PRs going systematically down the list.

[mb53]

I also just learned that there is a "dice" function for posting. How long has that been there? >___> I was wondering where you guys were getting those results. I still don't even know how to use it, really.

Why don't you qoute someone to figure it out like I did? And if you are delivering all the content you claim are, why don't you tell us which posts are good? I'm not seeing much (accurate) content at all.

FoS on you.

##unvote

[DrippingGoofball]

I wonder if Dramonic isn't bus'sing sorasgoof. His sora hate borders on the illogical.

[Zang]

##Unvote

##Vote: sorasgoof

don't have to talk now

I meant that I didn't have time to talk then.

You might want to look up "sarcasm" in the dictionary.

Soras-404 doesn't look like sarcasm to me. It looks like frustrated scum who lost his temper.

And being #1 on the draft doesnt make you scum, but i would think that it is more likely.

what?
That is hilarious Someone did not pass their statistics class.

[Zang]

I put it inside the quotes

I said "What?"

[CryMeARiver]

##Unvote

##Vote: sorasgoof

don't have to talk now

I meant that I didn't have time to talk then.

You might want to look up "sarcasm" in the dictionary.

Soras-404 doesn't look like sarcasm to me. It looks like frustrated scum who lost his temper.

And being #1 on the draft doesnt make you scum, but i would think that it is more likely.

what?
That is hilarious Someone did not pass their statistics class.

Explain how it's "more likely" to be scum just because you have the first pick of the draft.

[Porkens]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

[Zang]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

This is what I meant

[PranaDevil]

That still doesn't compute, there's 5 scum, the only people who could even consider their number picks with others were the two masons, and the 5 scum, everyone else had even chance.

Scum could only co-ordinate with other scum, so while it's "possible" they would get the top spot, it's not 100%, it's also unlikely ALL 5 scum picked different first numbers, purely because that would stand out like a sore thumb.

I'm going to consider everyone saying the top spot is automatically scummy, as scummy myself.

[CryMeARiver]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

This is what I meant

No it doesn't make more sense. The draft picks were completely random. Is it not more likely for town to have gotten the number 1 draft pick no matter what, or am I missing something?

[Porkens]

The picks were not completely random. The scum had more knowledge than the town or masons, so they could ensure (WIFOM aside) that they didn't pick the same numbers as each other.

Of course it isn't 100%, but they certainly had a better chance to pick better numbers.

Thus, a scum had a better chance to get the #1 draft pick than a non-scum individual.

[PranaDevil]

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not, the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

[CryMeARiver]

The picks were not completely random. The scum had more knowledge than the town or masons, so they could ensure (WIFOM aside) that they didn't pick the same numbers as each other.

Of course it isn't 100%, but they certainly had a better chance to pick better numbers.

Thus, a scum had a better chance to get the #1 draft pick than a non-scum individual.

Wow, I have no idea why I didn't think of this before. Thanks for the clear up.

[Porkens]

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,

the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.

[PranaDevil]

But why does that mean that they couldn't collide with the other 17 players as far as the first number goes?

Not that I'm defending soras here, I just think it's bad logic.

[dramonic]

And I'm interested in town vs. scum, not vanilla vs PR in a scenario where we lynch PRs going systematically down the list.

Yeah, I didnt get that earlier. ^_^;
And systematically going down the list will just have us turning this game mostly mountainous <<

I wonder if Dramonic isn't bus'sing sorasgoof. His sora hate borders on the illogical.

Soras ISO:
2 is a thinly veiled pseudo-attack on Parama
3 is a heavy backpedal after previous attack (if you think he plays differently, it probably means
his alignment is different)
4-6 is setup speculation
10 is fluff
11 is an attack (which is kinda decent I admit) ended with a... FoS?
12 is AtE
15 sounds like giving up
16-17 is a misrep, though he's not the only on who's done it so that is okay.

Additionally he hasn't put a single vote down since the beginning of the game and really, he's stated no strong opinion on anyone (except SMAP)
I dont hate Sora, I love him for being so obvscum ;P

[Sando]

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,

the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.

Man, these laces are never going to get done up.

Yeah, scum have a better chance of noone else choosing their number. My napkin maths puts each scum at around 31% chance of that. Napkin maths puts Masons at ~25% and Town at ~23.5%. So yes, you're right, scum individually have better odds.

However, there's 3 times as many townies compared to scum... and then you've got masons on top of that...

The top spot is most likely to be a townie. But then I'm pretty sure every slot is most likely to be a townie.

PS, my napkin maths is (14/15)^(number people who could choose the same number). So it's:

Scum = (14/15)^17
Mason = (14/15)^20
Townie = (14/15)^21

This only works out the chance of noone else choosing your number though.

[Fate]

##Unvote

##Vote: Dram

Yeah. 404 looks more like frustrated town now.

Scum can be frustrated too. He still isn't scumhunting.

[Fate]

Oh lord math again.... here PYPII ISO Hoopla:

viewtopic.php?p=2141910#2141910 We already went over this.

The worrying thing is that Hoopla isn't pushing it this game,

FoS: Hoopla

[Socrates]

So, question for all interested parties:

Say Soras is scum right now. What do you think his scum buddies are saying in the scum quicktopic right now? (Remember, this is deepsouth, scum can daytalk.)

[Fate]

"Oh fuck, soras is going down! I thought Fate was too stupid to follow my numbers theory!"-Hoopla
"Let's just have a few of us keep softdefending him"-DGB
"I'm bussing this dumbass! He's a liability!"-Dram
"What should we have him claim so they leave him alive? Vig right? That way we can just redirect his kills and he'll have a few more days to live"-???
"Yeah sounds good."