Open 213 -- Mini Love (Over)

[TheLoneWolf]

Lazy ass Chrono, you posted the numbers yourself.


2 goons
1 trech. lover
3 lovers
4 town

It will take 6 to lynch.

We're at 8:3,

mislynch 7:3

Town lovers die


D3-5:3.

Lynch Scum lover
5:2
Town lover dies, town NK

D4-3:2 LyLo.

We're safe to lynch DLA. The above is the worst case scenario with no doc saves.

#2:
8:3

Lynch Lookerscum
8:2
Town Lover dies, Town Lovers NK

D3- 5:2

Mislynch, Townie NK

3:2

D4-LyLo

Doesn't really matter to me, but I'm sure town would be happier lynching the scummy DLA rather than trusting that Yankee and I are town and lynching Lookerscum.

[Chronopie]

Deal, we can deal with lurker lover scum later.

Unvote, Vote: DLA

[Yankee]

Can we get some more input from the inactives please?

My top suspect right now is still Yankee. Although DLA is doing his damndest to make me rethink my stance.

We need more conversation people.

LOL @ this post

How many times have you said I was your top suspect? I think we get that I am your top suspect already after the what, 4th or 5th time you have said it. Not quite sure why but thats your opinion so ok. By the way guys, I decided not to get modkilled since there was a no-lynch yesterday. I thought Wolf would be lynched because he had the most votes at the end of the day. But seriously guys, go read Ksen in ISO and can someone fill me in to why he finds me suspicious and feels the need to say it every other post by him it seems....

/back to real life for a while

[Chronopie]

Summing up the day so far: We aren't lynching a lover today, and we

hope

that it's Looker-lover-inactive that's the treacherous.

Assuming that Looker is the treacherous, Wolf/Yankee are confirmed town.

Ksen keeps on saying that Yankee-Lover is prime suspect, broken record.

DLA looks scummy.

DiR has disappeared
As have Easjo and Scorpion. (Easjo has posted minimal fluff.)

Henry has been inactive the entire game.

Did I miss anyone?

[Chronopie]

@MOD: Votecount please

[dramonic]

Hey all, I'm replacing... someone, dont know who yet but anyways.
I've done my read-up and here are my thoughts:

The lover claims: Lover claiming is not a stupid thing to do, it's basically the wiser maneuver town could make in this setup, weither you like it or not. HOWEVER, anyone who even hinted at supporting a lover lynch day 1 is antitown.

XScorpion is scum, his play has been purely against the town since the beginning of day 1, makes me wonder why he hasn't garnered more votes yet.

Not lynching day 1 was terrible. We're already basically in LyLo, whatever we do.

[XScorpion]

I want to hear why you think lover claiming makes any sense in the first place. Especially if you don't plan on lynching them.
Here's my argument: Suppose no one claimed (best solution). If the town lovers die, the town lover paired with the scum lover immediately claims and then we know who is scum. Knowing this, what are the benefits to have lovers claim?

I will also point out that every player (with the exception of our two lurkers, Looker and Henry) has at one point supported a lover lynch, so I guess according to you everyone is anti town. Good analysis.

[Chronopie]

Hey Dram, your options for replacement are someone that never picked up their role pm, or an outed lover (mine).

so who would you pick as Xscorpion's scumbuddy?

[dramonic]

I want to hear why you think lover claiming makes any sense in the first place. Especially if you don't plan on lynching them.
Here's my argument: Suppose no one claimed (best solution). If the town lovers die, the town lover paired with the scum lover immediately claims and then we know who is scum. Knowing this, what are the benefits to have lovers claim?

1- Reduce the pool of people to protect for the doc by 4 for early game and by everyone but 2 for late game (assuming the doc is decent at scumhunting)
2- Prevents a surprise scum-victory (since we can predict how things will develop)
3- Helps prevent No-Lynch due to L-1 claims that we shouldnt lynch if we care for town win.
4- It's statistically easier to catch 2 scum in 7 players than 3 in 11, with a potential mislynch having a less adverse effect
5- Your "best solution" only reduce the amount of lost townies by 1, which in itself is insignificant when compared to the advantages in earlier points.

And yes, that means everyone barring the two lurkers have been anti-town at some point, however if you read the game (and I hope you did, you've been playing since the beginning) you'll notice that some have fought against a lover lynch later on. DLA, for example.

XS-Riley-Wolf sounds possible. Also if Yankee self-votes again I'm flinging a brick at his skull.

Unvote
Vote: XScorpion

[TheLoneWolf]

Voting before you read your role pm.

Awesome.

So what about my self-voting makes me the scum lover again? Oh right because you might replaced into the scum lover slot and you can't really say that pair is scum...

Also we're not in Lylo. Look at the math above.

[dramonic]

Voting before you read your role pm.

Awesome.

So what about my self-voting makes me the scum lover again? Oh right because you might replaced into the scum lover slot and you can't really say that pair is scum...

Also we're not in Lylo. Look at the math above.

We're not in LyLo yet, but we're headed there unless a miracle occurs. That's what "whatever we do" means.
Also, is your name Yankee? No, no it's not.
Did I call you out for self-voting? Nope
Are you planning to continue failing to read my post correctly? Let's hope so.

[TheLoneWolf]

So why am I scum then?

[dramonic]

And voting before I get my PM isn't actually a bad thing. If it turns out I'm the treacherous lover Im stuck with my prestated beliefs and will have to lynch XS even if I'm lynching my buddy.

Either way, you are not the play today, so I don't believe I need to make a huge case why you are prob treacherous.

[XScorpion]

1- Reduce the pool of people to protect for the doc by 4 for early game and by everyone but 2 for late game (assuming the doc is decent at scumhunting)
2- Prevents a surprise scum-victory (since we can predict how things will develop)
3- Helps prevent No-Lynch due to L-1 claims that we shouldnt lynch if we care for town win.
4- It's statistically easier to catch 2 scum in 7 players than 3 in 11, with a potential mislynch having a less adverse effect
5- Your "best solution" only reduce the amount of lost townies by 1, which in itself is insignificant when compared to the advantages in earlier points.

1. I don't understand this. How are you "reducing the pool" exactly? Last time I checked, scum can target anyone.
2. A surprise scum victory isn't any worse than a predicted scum victory.
3. Yes, because we totally prevented no lynch yesterday. </sarcasm>
4. Perhaps true, but there is no downside that I see to simply playing as normal, and letting people claim lover at L-1. A scum false-claiming lover won't last long.
5. At this point, my "best solution" would have reduced the number of lost townies by 2 since we wouldn't have been stupid enough to no lynch yesterday.

Remind me exactly why you "have to lynch" me again?

[Chronopie]

And voting before I get my PM isn't actually a bad thing.

This, we're getting an unbiased read by a player not currently motivated either way.

[Nikanor]

Well, posting before knowing his role isn't very smart, but I'm not going to hold it against dramonic.
That said, I don't really want to lynch XScorpion today.

[TheLoneWolf]

I'd like to point out that Dram's theory of Xscoprscum+Me required this:

"Xscorps' play has been wholly anti-town, he should be lynched."
I.e. he wanted to lynch lovers D1 (me).
But that means he wanted to lynch his treach buddy really badly? Therefore his play was pro-town, wasn't it?

Yeah Dram, you are going to need to make the case on me, since if im treach I'm scum with Xscorp and I doubt anyone else sees that pairing.

That said it is between Looker/DLA for me today, barring new replacements (*cough*) acting even more scummy.

[ksen]

I want to hear why you think lover claiming makes any sense in the first place. Especially if you don't plan on lynching them.
Here's my argument: Suppose no one claimed (best solution). If the town lovers die, the town lover paired with the scum lover immediately claims and then we know who is scum. Knowing this, what are the benefits to have lovers claim?

I will also point out that every player (with the exception of our two lurkers, Looker and Henry) has at one point supported a lover lynch, so I guess according to you everyone is anti town. Good analysis.

I have not supported a lover lynch. I think it was a terrible idea. The majority of other players thought it was a bad idea.

All Day 1 was was one big distraction that didn't even end up with a lynch.

[ksen]

And voting before I get my PM isn't actually a bad thing.

This, we're getting an unbiased read by a player not currently motivated either way.

Um, how do you know he hasn't read his role PM? Because he said so?

[Chronopie]

Cynical much?

But yes, I'm choosing to believe that dram was in fact truthful in his statement. After all, he's got a sitewide rep to maintain, and I'm fairly sure that he doesn't want to be targeted by a meta policy-lynch all liars D1 in future.

[ksen]

Cynical much?

Yeah, I tend to be. How can you

not

be cynical while playing mafia?

[dramonic]

@wolf: haven't you heard of bussing? It is not even that disadvantageous for scum to lynch their treacherous anyways.
Also, for having seen both Yankee and chrinopie's play I feel very strongly they are town. Leaves you and Looker and he's still neutral unlike you who've made some scummy posts (more about this when I'm not on my iPod)

@Ksen: Youll know I have my pm when the mod posts my replacing in.

@XScorpion:
1-Scum wants to keep the lovers alive as long as possible since their death can reverse the tide of the game really fast (like lylo tomorrow if we mislynch) as such there is no specific value in protecting the lovers day 1-2. Once we get to lover LyLo the only person scum want to lynch are the lovers, so we don't need to protect the others.
2- Unless scum are complete idiots in this game, they won't false claim since it's entirely verifiable. If we bring someone to l-1 and they claim lover we'd be stuck unvoting and mounting another wagon, even if it's the treacherous lover. Actually: The treacherous lover is the last scum we want to lynch.
3-Well if you hadn't argued for like 10 pages before doing anything there would probably have been a lynch.
4-Show me your math why we "save" two townies, because that makes no sense whatsoever.

Dla is not getting lynched today, he's among the more protown players in the game.

[dramonic]

Erm, point 2 is 4 and 4 is 5
As for the actual 2, Id rather know where we're headed than hope scum doesn't get lucky

[XScorpion]

1-Scum wants to keep the lovers alive as long as possible since their death can reverse the tide of the game really fast (like lylo tomorrow if we mislynch) as such there is no specific value in protecting the lovers day 1-2. Once we get to lover LyLo the only person scum want to lynch are the lovers, so we don't need to protect the others.
2- Unless scum are complete idiots in this game, they won't false claim since it's entirely verifiable. If we bring someone to l-1 and they claim lover we'd be stuck unvoting and mounting another wagon, even if it's the treacherous lover. Actually: The treacherous lover is the last scum we want to lynch.
3-Well if you hadn't argued for like 10 pages before doing anything there would probably have been a lynch.
4-Show me your math why we "save" two townies, because that makes no sense whatsoever.

1. You don't know what scum

want

unless you are scum. Are you?
2. Again, I don't care where we're headed as long as we win.
3. Well seeing as how we had 2 lurkers and how I was trying my best NOT to get town into the mess it's in now, I don't see how you have any right to complain.
4. So...what's the downside to playing normally there? Last time I checked, forcing someone to claim lover at L-1 and forcing them to complain at 0 votes does the same thing.
5. If we actually scumhunted properly rather than go about this lover claim farce, we could have had a decent chance to lynch a scum yesterday, rather than waste a day with the no lynch. This means we wouldn't have lost robocopter for nothing, and assuming we actually hit scum, we'd be a day ahead which means the scum have 1 less day to NK people = 1 less townie dead.

And I would love to hear how you think DLA is town despite the fact that he let the no lynch go through and came up with the brilliant idea to get town in this mess.

[dramonic]

1. You don't know what scum

want

unless you are scum. Are you?
2. Again, I don't care where we're headed as long as we win.
3. Well seeing as how we had 2 lurkers and how I was trying my best NOT to get town into the mess it's in now, I don't see how you have any right to complain.
4. So...what's the downside to playing normally there? Last time I checked, forcing someone to claim lover at L-1 and forcing them to complain at 0 votes does the same thing.
5. If we actually scumhunted properly rather than go about this lover claim farce, we could have had a decent chance to lynch a scum yesterday, rather than waste a day with the no lynch. This means we wouldn't have lost robocopter for nothing, and assuming we actually hit scum, we'd be a day ahead which means the scum have 1 less day to NK people = 1 less townie dead.

And I would love to hear how you think DLA is town despite the fact that he let the no lynch go through and came up with the brilliant idea to get town in this mess.

1. I'm assuming scum wants to win.
2. That's a sure way to lose
3. You = second person plural, its the players as a whole I'm accusing here
4. The wagon has to be brought down and someone else has to get a wagon built on them, takes longer, much longer.
5. Considering your reads in the game, I don't think with you leading we'd have lynched anyone close to being scum, but that's just me. Also, day 1 lynch are more often than not on townies, we'd have at MOST lynched 1 scum, saved no townie.

And again, DLA didnt provoke the no lynch by himself and this "mess" the town is in is more a result of your anti-town, reticent play that his plea for lover claims.