Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[manho]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 2 - Ellibereth, mb53 - (L-10)

manho

- 4 - PranaDevil, Budja, Pomegranate, Parama - (L-8)

Pomegranate

- 1 - Hoopla - (L-11)

PranaDevil

- 3 - Dramonic, Socrates, Faraday - (L-9)

sorasgoof

- 4 - Fate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, Porkens, CryMeARiver - (L-8)

Players not voting:12keyblade, DrippingGoofball, manho, Sando, SerialClergyman, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum

@mod, i think i've unvoted

but nevermind,

##unvote

[Fate]

Vanilla for WHAT?

Try again.

Hoopla next

Fuck off, I am not claiming. I refuse to turn this game into a logic puzzle on Day 1 when half this town isn't in any way logical.[/quote

*sigh*

Hoopla's scum again.

[Fate]

I honestly think this game is vulnerable to a day 1 massclaim, working from the bottom up. Supplanting the number analysis with a massclaim would leave the town with a very good idea of where the scum will be located. Consider what would have happened if we had done it this game.

For the sake of the argument, lets assume that I truthfully claim Cop, jack fakeclaims vengeful, fifi claimes vanilla the tried to get vengeful, Hoopla truthfully claims failed governor, Faraday fakeclaims Doctor. This is about what we were thinking we would do if we had to claim.

We would be left with this:

Socrates claim Cop Cop
Fate claim Bomb Bomb
bouncy.bouncy claim Role Cop Role Cop
Cobalt claim Watcher Watcher
RayFrost claim Tracker Tracker
Redcoyote claim Bomb Vanilla
Jack claim vengeful vengeful (actually vig)
FeFiFoFum claim Universal Backup Universal Backup
StrangerCoug claim Bomb Vanilla
The1fifi claim Vengeful vanilla (actually vengeful)
wolframnhart claim Neighborizer Neighborizer
Devotress claim Role Cop Vanilla
Porkens claim Bomb Vanilla
DocPotter claim Vengeful Lynchee Vanilla
Ellibereth claim one-Shot Governor One-Shot Governor
Dramonic claim Universal Backup Vanilla
Hoopla claim One-Shot Governor Vanilla
TonyMontana claim Bomb Vanilla
Farside claim Vengeful Lynchee Vanilla
curiouskarmadog claim Watcher Vanilla
Pomegranate claim Universal Backup Vanilla
Faraday claim Doctor Vanilla (actually empowerer)

First things first: Faraday would be outed as scum. Cobalt, and Rayfrost would essentially be cleared as town. Scum have little motivation to take these roles and we have other claims to corroborate that those roles are actually in the game. No vig claim means that the vig is scum if he exists (obv). This by itself makes me VERY likely scum, even if I am not the vig, because a scum vig would only know to try for vig if they knew I wasn't going to take the role. So on a cursory glance, we have two town and 2 scum, with the knowledge to look out for the vig.

Now another thing, while roles have no correlation with alignment, telling the truth about one's role is still makes someone slightly more likely to be town. This is because the scum are busy trying to hide the vig, so at least 1 scum and probably more are lieing about their role.



Now, lets look at the universal backups:

FeFiFoFum, Dramonic, and Pomegranate. If FeFiFoFum is town, then Dramonic and Pomegranate are very likely telling the truth about their claim. If FeFiFoFum is lieing about his role, then Dramonic (or someone between them) is scum. Pomegranate is likely town in this scenario unless both FeFi and Dramonic are scum, which is unlikely. (remember, we went bottom up, and universal backup itsn't guaranteed to be drafted like the bomb)

Conclusion:

Pom is probably town.
If FeFi is scum and lieing, then there is another scum below him.

We can draw similar conclusions about the Bomb group and the vengeful group.

For all of the doubles: if one of them lied, they both probably lied. if one of them told the truth, they both probably told the truth.

Wolf would very probably be telling the truth.

I haven't thought this out perfectly so I might be wrong about some of this, and there are probably more conclusions that I could draw from this, but I am too lazy right now.

Now cross reference this with number analysis and an increasing pool of town flips as the game goes on, along with good old scum hunting, and the scum would need to play absolutely brilliantly in order to win.

Thoughts?

Here's Socrates post from last game.

Let's gogo. Policy lynches to be had for all nay-sayers!

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

^sounds good to me!

[SerialClergyman]

Or everyone tells the truth, and we gain little-nothing.

[Fate]

Scum can only claim what their partners have, or their actual role (in which case they can't really use it), or take a gamble and claim a role a townie might have above them.

Hoopla says it makes this game less fun, makes it like smalltown, etc. She also says that scum only has to hide the vig for a few days, and then they get to pick off all the power roles.

That said, we don't have to do it. Like Hoopla said, after a few key town members are offed I don't know if we can leave the FATE of the game in the hands of...

>_>'
<_<;

Good thing Zang's on the bottom of the list.

[SerialClergyman]

I get that Fate. What I don't get is why having a smalltown setup would be better for us.

[Fate]

It isn't the same as smalltown though, it is the fact that we are claiming from the bottom up. Smalltown is just what we would be changing into

Scum have to say, "vanilla to scum role above me" OR "vanilla to X town role above me" and hope that X is in the game. Therefore scum would be narrowed to certain roles. And theoretically easy to pick off.

It'd be interesting to see in practice, but if we can't get support for there's always the Sorasgoof wagon and whoever said it was scum-driven.

[Fate]

"Smalltown is just what we would be changing into"

EDWOP should read: -changing into, but the process in which we do it is what is important.

[SerialClergyman]

..

Smalltown is everyone knows everyone's role.

If the scum just claim EXACTLY WHAT THEY HAVE PICKED, it will be identical to smallville.

The situation you are describing is if the scum feel like they have to lie about their role, and I have no idea why they'd do that.

[PranaDevil]

The only flaw I see with a mass claim is it only needs clever scum to break it easily. Plus it would mean we lose our more important people early on (cop and doc for instance) who can give us some great information.

[Fate]

Of course scum would lie. They'll try to hide the vig so that they can get more nights of killing with it. They'll try to guess at a role above them and say "vanilla for cop" for instance if they are in fact one of the vigs, so it would take longer for us to find them. Of course that's a gambit hoping the cop is above them, etc.

Also if scum real claim a role such as the Janitor, for instance, then we know they're scum if they start using it.

Etc. etc.

@Prana: We just have to out clever scum, that's all.

Meh I'm not good explainer/convincer. It's Socrates plan anyway, let him push for it more if he wants. Just put me in the pro-MC category (and since we have 3 claims already... it just looks better and better).

[Budja]

We have a great deal of an advantage waiting a day for claims at very little cost. We can also out vanilla-lies using, for example, watcher/tracker results.
I can't see why there is this pressing need to claim today. I mean, what advantage does today have over tomorrow.

[PranaDevil]

I actually feel waiting at least a day would be better, it gives (as is said) the watcher and tracker chance to check people, it gives our masons chance to get some info if they've planned right, and the cop and doc can find some info too. If we claim today, the doc goes tonight, and the cop goes tomorrow.

Also, I don't get the whole "scum will have the vigs" stuff. If I was right near the top, it's one of the roles I'd take purely to prevent scum having 2 kills a night.

[SerialClergyman]

Am I blind or the only one that can see???

Of course scum would lie. They'll try to hide the vig so that they can get more nights of killing with it. They'll try to guess at a role above them and say "vanilla for cop" for instance if they are in fact one of the vigs, so it would take longer for us to find them. Of course that's a gambit hoping the cop is above them, etc.

WHY WOULD THEY DO ANY OF THIS?? Say manho claims vig. Does that make him scum or town? If the scum have a vig, they have no reason not to admit it. In fact, it probably makes them less likely to be lynched....

><

If I were scum, I wouln't try to guess at anything. I'd just SAY MY ROLE. And then kill all of the juiciest ones above me.

[manho]

i got it fate. scum will defintely lie if they got a "scummy role", as they can't use that role to do anti-town things.

another example is that claimed vig can't kill a pro-town player. and i think the vig kills are pretty under control by the town. all we need to worry is a hidden redirector, or scum claimed to be redirected.

so a massclaim effectively takes away all scum's "scummy" role.

[SerialClergyman]

Vig was the first role taken by the number 1 town pick in PYP 1.

I'd do the same thing. Vig is very powerful (plus you don't actually have to argue about your suspects, you can just snipe them. Saves much wear and tear on keyboard).

[Fate]

With what? The vig? The night kill?

If the scumvig realclaim we get to direct the scums kill. I.e. they get to shoot themselves if we are right on target.

Also if the doctor is guaranteed to go tonight, THEN HOPE WE HAVE A WATCHER. Watcher+Doc is a powerful combo.

Of course I forgot about the redirector though.. which screws any town claimed vigs/PRs and is a role scum will definitely try to hide/real claim.

Meh we can put MCing off

[manho]

i would definately pick vig if i'm on the top, as a scum vig is too dangerous. but the scum vig can't kill everyone they want. that should be planned by the town on first hand.

[manho]

a scum redirector is actually more powerful than 2 every-other-night-vig. as the redirector can redirect both vig kills and get an extra kills every night.

[Budja]

Actually, I'm not even sure a day 2 MC is the best idea with SC's comments. The threat of a massclaim is more important than a massclaim itself to stop janitors, scum-vigs killing obv-town.
Day 1 MC is bad anyway regardless.

In any case, I say we table this conversation for later.
---

@Fate, you don't really seem that strongly convinced towards massclaiming so why label people who disagree as scum?

Also,

##unvote

.
Given a proper look at manho, I don't see scum. He explained himself ok.

I don't like the way that manho is playing this game, not-really-paying-attention. He doesn't make a ton of sense, and goes back on his word (IIRC).

Now here's the thing. I don't like this post but I feel hypercritical for attacking it given my own skim-reading.
Elaborate on this, Pom.

[Budja]

EDWOP: hypocritical!

[PranaDevil]

manho's explanations were terrible, and he managed to either successfully not work out any of what I said, or had an idea and wanted to push to see if it's worth NK'ing me tonight.

Also, to the person asking why I'm town, it has a little to do with something someone else said in the sign up thread, and a little as to why Neighborizor would be much stronger in my hands than anyone other town player.

[manho]

I'm Prana.

and people are honestly willing to lynch me for using my head, absolutely amazing.

A prize pillock is basically an idiot.

Incidentally, for the record, in case people want to know why I said we either have a stupid townie, or clever scum, is I went for Neighborizor.

If you have a brain you'll work it out, if you haven't, the town is doomed anyway.

i really don't know what you are trying to say then. explain it clearly to someone like me who have no brain please.

[Zang]

So I'm supposed to claim?