Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[PaltryExcuse]

@Furcolow: What is your opinion on the case against myself? Anyone else's case in general?

@inHim: You asked what mine and Yos2's suspicions were but you didn't really follow up on it. What is your opinion on either of us?

[inHimshallibe]

Alright, so re-reading sorasgoof, I'm just going to assume that's a vig kill/SK trying to look like a vig.

[inHimshallibe]

@Furcolow: What is your opinion on the case against myself? Anyone else's case in general?

@inHim: You asked what mine and Yos2's suspicions were but you didn't really follow up on it. What is your opinion on either of us?

Hold your horses, bub, I'm working on it.

[inHimshallibe]

Bah, time to go eat. Be back later.

[Yosarian2]

His play reminds me of the play that he had in the Space Monkey Mafia, in which he flipped mafia.

I'm... I'm not sure this is your best case.

Hahaha.

Furcolow, I really appreciate the effort you must have gone to read up on old games in order to get meta reads on people, but you should probably know that Space Monkey Mafia is probably not a good source of meta information. Looking at the game to confirm; InHim was a gorilla, which means he was actually pro-town in that game, although the mod deliberately confused the issue during the game itself as part of the theme of the game. For that matter, Inhim might not have KNOWN he was town at the time.

...yeah. You might be better off getting meta information elsewhere.

On a side note, after this (rather awesome) misunderstanding, and his posting in general, I think the odds of Furcolow being scum go way, way down. The odds of this being fake scumhunting, of Furcolow as scum going to all the trouble to search for old games with inhim in them and then do an iso read on Inhim in that game just in order to launch a secondary attack against a player who'd been pretty lurky, seem incredibly small, unless Furcolow is just absolutely brilliant newb scum.

[Furcolow]

@Furcolow: What is your opinion on the case against myself? Anyone else's case in general?

@inHim: You asked what mine and Yos2's suspicions were but you didn't really follow up on it. What is your opinion on either of us?

Well, I wasn't for your case, but as you spammed the shit out of my amazing points off the thread... IDK.

[Furcolow]

I'm going to a friends, i'll be back later tonight.

[dahill1]

What's your case for Furcolow, Izzy? I don't really see it and in fact I find myself agreeing with the majority of his sum-up post. Much better than FFFF.

unvote

Btw Anon/Richard wagons have much more merit than Paltrywagon. Yos can you explain paltry's case to me in a summed up, condensed form?

[VasudeVa]

I like Furcolow. I lol'd at Yos' explanation. (Bastard Modding ftw!)

I like how Fur saw the connection between ksun/Anon/Richard with the requests for replacement though. Players don't PM mods for replacements, and town couldn't care less about ksun's shitty play. Scum do since ksun was a power role hence the requests. Good call, good call. Richard completely had me fooled though, he was a town read for me because I empathized with all the newbie bashing going his way but not anymore so I think I'mma ride the bandwagon thataway.

vote Richard

I can't help but feel that I'm a good choice for competing wagon so here's to discourage scum. Don't do it.

[RichardGHP]

VasudeVa: It's not like I knew ksun was scum. I thought at best he was a really really anti-town player who would only hurt us on later days. Him flipping scum was a bonus, doubled by the fact that he was a scum PR. My read on him was terribad town, and since the wagons were going that way, I jumped on.

Also, if I recall correctly, I said "prod OR replace the following players", and ksun was only one of about 4 or 5. It's not fair to isolate only the "replace" and ksun's name out of that post.

[Furcolow]

Richard is behaving differently than he has in the games I have him labeled as town.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Richard is behaving differently than he has in the games I have him labeled as town.

And yet he's behaving exactly the same way as games where he's definitevely confirmed town.

[mipe]

* INSERT LONG ANALYSIS POST HERE*

Why nothing about me?

[Shanba]

I got two working hypotheses for day 1. Suppose that a lot of the wagonny group I identified on day 1 were scum: in that case, the dahill wagon was almost entirely scum driven and dahill is v. likely town. The dahill wagon was not particularly strong, so scum can't drum up much support for lynching him from townies. Then mipe comes along and plays in a way that makes a lot of townies suspect him. That wagon then looks very much like a wagon on a townie that the scum suspect will be lynched, so they pile in on him. The difference in speed and size compared to dahill is because both scum and town are on the mipewagon and only scum are on the dahill wagon.

Then we have an issue when the ksun wagon sprouts up. In this hypothesis, the scum don't just bus him, they are the driving force that turns him into a leading wagon. Why would they do that? I guess the explanation that makes the most sense in that case is that they wanted to protect a more valuable Richardscum.

I'm a little confused by this assumption, Shanba. Why does "the scum were pushing the mipe wagon" imply "the scum drove the ksun lynch wagon"? Who would be scum in this case? And why is that more likely then the hypothesis I was talking about, which is "most of the scum stayed on the mipe wagon, went into lurk-mode for the last week or so before deadline, and hoped that mipe would be deadline-lynched"?

That's not my actual assumption. My assumption is that the group of wagonny players I isolated yesterday were scum. They were on the mipe wagon and swapped over to the ksun wagon en masse.

Your assumption fails because there were only 4 players on the mipe wagon at the end of the day and 1 of them is dead town.

This post feels very much like mafia trying to spam The Fonz's good post off the page. He also disagree with him within this post, and I feel that his goal here is to take away from The Fonz and Yosarian developing a sort of "town circle". He is also, through doing this, sort of saving Richard. I am apt to believe that Richard, inhimshallibe and shanba are mafia.

I can definitively assure you that I was not trying to spam the fonz' post off the page. I mean, what? The mind boggles...

As for your other accusation...

surely it would be easier to disrupt such a circle by killing one of them at night? In general, scum try and lynch people that are easy to get lynched. Otherwise they risk town ignoring them and starting to think for themselves.

Also Izzy is not a bad player. Disengaged atm though. Speaking of which, we need TheStatusQuo replaced. I don't see him coming back any time soon. Also, scotmany12 needs prodding. Badly.

[iamausername]

I'm gonna take a look at some other players next

Well, first I want to put a stop to the people taking my valid point against Anon and twisting it into a completely invalid case against Richard.

Asking for several players, including ksun, to be prodded/replaced when they hadn't posted for a while is not remotely the same thing as asking for ksun, and only ksun, to be forcibly replaced immediately after he'd just posted something dumb.

It's the contrast between his reactions to ksun and mipe for more or less the same behaviour that makes Anon's replacement request suspicious, and there's no such contrast with Richard.

[Anon]

So why does ksun not get the same treatment?

First, screwing around, specially in early pages, is not a scumtell in my book. Second, mipe did something that caught my attention. In my iso 10, I posted this.

- Mipe. I strongly suspect his strange vote on me was a strategy for posteriorirty, aka framing me. His vote and quick unvote just dont make any sense. Posterior "why are you not looking at me" is wifomy but sounds fake.

For obvious reasons, these players albeit similiar playstyles, did not get the same treatment from my pov. I had a null read on ksun while I had a scum read on mipe.

If he wants ksun lynched, why is he grilling dahill about his vote?

Because first, dahill is still in my scum spectrum and his ksun voting looked suspicious to me, and when I voted ksun I still had a null, useless read on him. I still maintain what I said in my iso24:

Its interesting to notice that despite ksun being pretty much a "die useless player die" lynch, there are a lot of decent reasoners on it.

So, his reason for voting ksun is that everyone voting mipe is suspect, wheras everyone voting ksun is good, but then after ksun flips scum, he turns around and says "definitely some bussing going on there". I really have trouble seeing that as a product of good intentions.

Yep, there was some bussing there and I never said EVERYONE voting ksun was good and everyone voting mipe is suspect. Yes, my reason to vote ksun was that the mipe wagon was generally stinking and that the wagon I felt more comfortable joining was the ksun wagon despite me having a null read on him. I still maintain that despite the overall townie feeling of the wagon, there is one experienced scumbag hidden in the ksun wagon.

I dont get what are the bad intentions here, when "one scum in the wagon" its just a logical conclusion of a day 1 wagon that lynched scum based on non conclusive scumtells.

In other news:
Why exactly is Paltry still alive?

[Furcolow]

How is him obviously pushing for a lynch wagon when behaving as what he believed to be scum NOT a good case... Are you kidding me? He is behaving exactly like he does when he's mafia! If Richard/inHimshallibe both flip town i offer myself up to be lynched

[Furcolow]

Yos is worrying me. It feels like he's playing as if he were Sherlock Holmes or something. He has his pet theory (that richard is scum) and he's basing his interpretation of the facts around that rather than around the circumstances of the ksun wagon.

What do I mean? Well, look at the way he dismisses me as a possible scum because he thinks Richard is scum. I would expect a player looking for associative tells to go something like "here paltry excuse does an action that makes him look like ksun's partner, and here Shanba does an action that make him look like ksun's partner etc." But for Yos right now he is staring through the lens of Richardscum so that even though he thinks my actions look scummy, he doesn't think I'm scum.

Sure, he could say "well I think Richard is still scummy despite being the leading counterwagon and thus I don't think Shanba's actions are that scummy" but that's not what he's doing.

Also I don't really get the fact that he's voting Paltry over Richard (here's his stated reasons for that; his paltryexcuse case is further back in his iso).

Again, I have to say that you're just wrong here; the reasons I gave on day 1 for suspecting RichardG were and are 100% valid. Only reason I'm not voting him now is because I think the connection between PaltryExcuse and the dead scum are a stronger tell, but Richard is my #2 suspect, and if I had to guess I'd say they're probably both scum together.

I dunno. Everything he's saying is coherent, it just feels like the picture he is drawing up is stretched, dependent on too many things being just so.

There's something else that bugs me, too. He brings up a single example to show why we shouldn't assume that Ricky is town just because he was the counterwagon to scum. Okey doke, that's all fine and dandy, but a single counterexample doesn't stop something being a useful tell. And what's more, given Yos' playstyle, this should be doubly obvious/important to him. He's basically dismissing the tell on the basis of one piece of anecdotal evidence.

I see Fonz' WIFOM but in my experience with trying to read Yos, a Yos I find it hard to agree with is often a scumYos.

When I'm looking at the players, the vote counts and etc, I think FFFF is a good fallback wagon who is slightly more likely than average to be scum, but I think we have enough info from day 1 that we ought to be able to do better. Paltryexcuse is scummy, but I think Yos' case on him is somewhat overblown.

Basically, the way PaltryExcuse attacks me over swapping wagons feels town. It's like, I jump off mipe and onto ksun and he thinks "hrm, from one lurker to another? That's odd. I wonder what his reasons are," then asks me for my reasons, finds them insufficient and says it makes me likely scum. I mean, he does the same thing to Korts earlier on, so it's clearly something that he's looking for.

If he's scum trying to derail the ksun wagon, surely he would not be giving an explanation for attacking me where his possibility of attacking me is dependent on giving him a particular answer? The anatomy of the attack, the way he gives me an opportunity to defend myself, just seems town.

I think Yos is likely to be scum.

Vote: Yosarian2

Anon and Vas were two of the players I fingered yesterday in my wagon analysis. Given how that turned out, I'm a wee bit leery of assuming they're bussing scum. (A side note - all the players who jumped on every wagon that day also jumped on the ksun wagon rather than the Ricky wagon. One scenario in which the scum would rush to bus one of their members that would make sense is if they thought Ricky was a more valuable member of their scumteam than ksun, which is entirely possible given ksun's play yesterday. But ksun was a mafia power role, so yeah.)

SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM
LYNCH A TOWNIE
SCUM SCUM
DEFENDS RICHARDGHP
SCUM SCUM

[Furcolow]

This guy seems the most active of the scummers
Lets get him out of the way, so they'll just give up on the thread.
Get this game over with, we got this in the bag, baby.

unvote
vote: shanba

[DeathNote]

~Prodded thestatusquo. Will probably be searching for a replacement. Vote count tomorrow.~

[RichardGHP]

Congratulations Furcolow, you have provided more than enough comic relief for one game, now will you please start playing this game.

[Furcolow]

Sounds like the squirms of a man whose whole team is about to die

[RichardGHP]

*applauds slowly*

You didn't need to give an encore, but thanks anyway.

[The Fonz]

Mod: Why are you prodding someone who was banned weeks ago and hasn't returned from said ban yet?

Grrr, scumhunting time.

[The Fonz]

Right, scummy mipewagon.

Korts and Soras are dead, confirmed town.

Ksun is dead, confirmed scum. That leaves Paltry, Vasude, Richard, inHim, (Furcolow).


Paltry appears to be the one player who actually is convinced mipe is scum.

Furcolow appears town as a result of his own actions mitigating his predecessor's.

Richardwagon is horrible.

Vasude or inHim, then. Meh, both of them jumped the ksun wagon at times that looked unbuslike.

(SEE, this is why I'm struggling right now. The mipe wagon stank as a collective, and I'm convinced that there's at least one more scum there. But I see reason to think every player on that wagon, individually, has something which makes them appear town).

Vasude: Yos is right on the huge *BADTHEORY* vibes coming from him, but that doesn't mean he's town. I find it hard to see how having read lots of games fits with wanting to ride to claim repeatedly on day one, since presumably reading games would tell you that this is a bad idea. I mean, ISO 12 where he shamelessly proposes possibly the most antitown thing imaginable- he just feels, i dunno, guileless. Hard to read.

A fair bit of playing the newbie card on his own behalf, which I don't like. However, attacking the ksun wagon WHILST JOINING IT suggests scum if ksun had flipped town, however, since ksun flipped scum it looks noobtown. If he were bussing as scum, i'd expect him to sound a bit more enthusiastic about the vote.

InHim: Jumps mipe wagon at L-2 with no reasoning whatsoever, in a post where he attacks three or four other people. Directs a possible vig to a town player. His choice of ksun over Richard seems odd, since his list of five players he'd consider lynching didn't include ksun- in fact, he didn't mention him prior to this vote. His stated reason for staying on ksun after that is because 'A couple of people voted RGHP after [myself] and [he] put our votes on ksun. I'd kinda have expected him to have followed through on this today.

unvote, Vote: InHimShallIBe

@Everyone: What do you make of Quagmire's claim that he didn't notice ksun at all on day one?