Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[mipe]

Secondly, a mipe flip would tell us A HELL of a lot. We'd get information on nigh every person in the game I'd think (beyond Zoraster who replaced in for a nobody and has since done little).

Well, shouldn't you then lynch me? If it gives information on every person still alive in the game, I would sacrifice 1 townie.

[RichardGHP]

vote mipe

[The Fonz]

Firstly, about mipe and ksun having the same play? They didn't.
Mipe played the game and did more than vote initially (though stumbling). Ksun was mindless and just voted and parrotted. A Ksun-lynch was a response to some not liking the mipe lynch and stagnation in the game and has little to do with how he played. I'll admit I found him scummy initially... until it became obvious he didn't DO anything except vote. Then it became a matter of how could ANYONE know.

Well, there was a definite 'Any counterwagon is better than a default lynch' element, certainly. But, you know, he gave us no reason what so ever to believe he was trying to help the town at all, and the fact that he was clearly as bad or worse than mipe but getting much less heat for it indicates more likely scum.

Really, you got called out for tunnelling by Fonz, saw that he pointed at me and that there was a case elsewhere, and thought you'd join the club.

This is VERY weak.

Secondly, a mipe flip would tell us A HELL of a lot. We'd get information on nigh every person in the game I'd think (beyond Zoraster who replaced in for a nobody and has since done little).

Lynching for information = BAD BAD BAD.

[VasudeVa]

Fuck, so many things to read and I'm busy as hell(on the verge of replacing out, actually.). Argh, I'll only be replying to those that I have immediate thoughts on. I really don't know where I stand with all the fingers pointed and long walls'o'text everywhere.

@Fonz: Why is lynching for information bad? I know it isn't optimal play, but it's a good enough argument. That and it's a three in one combo since it's also a good policy lynch in this case and Paltry's case is legit to me(I find behavioral changes as tells too, I'm a psych major 8D) Mipe is as useless as ever and is probably NK-immune.

@Shanba: I'd like to hear what you think of the major wagons D1. Which ones were scum driven and which ones were town driven?

@Paltry: Why me over mipe? And the FeFiFo post was me thinking I caught him online. Playing other game -> stop for a while to surf the net -> Saw FeFi new post and immediately set to posting something that will let me get a read on him. (The timestamps are slightly farther from what I remember though, but this is what I thought at the time and I will be honest with that.)

@Yos: You replaced in and hardcore tunneled Richard. That, to me, was ridiculously scummy.

[The Fonz]

@Fonz: Why is lynching for information bad? I know it isn't optimal play, but it's a good enough argument. That and it's a three in one combo since it's also a good policy lynch in this case and Paltry's case is legit to me(I find behavioral changes as tells too, I'm a psych major 8D) Mipe is as useless as ever and is probably NK-immune.

If lynching for information is an acceptable town action, then anyone on a given wagon can say they were lynching for information. That means you don't actually get any information, as opposed to where everyone is at least pretending to be lynching someone they find scummy. There's obvious cognitive dissonance involved in running someone up to lynch, then if they flip town claiming that whoever ELSE was pushing them, or whoever was pushing them PREVIOUSLY, was doing so from scummy motives.

If, on the other hand, a player flips scum, i suppose you could claim someone defending them was scummy. But I think you're more likely to get a scum flip, and therefore better information, by wagoning someone you think

is actually likely to be scum

.

By all means, attack based on Paltry's case if you wish (I think it's bad, and i'll elaborate on why after i've delivered my next batch of leaflets) but citing informational reasons just makes the attack look scummy- like you're trying to get him lynched without the inconvenience of giving a reason for him being scum.

Incidentally, FFFF is both scummier, and a better policy lynch, than mipe.

@Yos: You replaced in and hardcore tunneled Richard. That, to me, was ridiculously scummy.

Tunnelling is not, and never will be, scummy. It's optimal town play if you feel with a high degree of certainty you've caught scum.

[mipe]

Mipe is as useless as ever and is probably NK-immune.

!!

Vote: VasudeVa

I'm not NK-immune, btw. I'm not useless, either!

Yes, that is all.

[zoraster]

Hi guys. Sorry for my low activity. As some of you may have seen, I'm fostering a couple of kittens. They seemed healthy at first but have been a series of fairly rare problems which has meant seeing specialists many miles away (I'm on my bb in a vet office at the moment). In any event, I plan to catch up with this thread soon, but I wanted to let you all know that I'm not just flaking. I don't need a replacement at this point -- just a little patience.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos: You replaced in and hardcore tunneled Richard. That, to me, was ridiculously scummy.

I replaced in, read the game, gave an analysis of everything in the game, came to the conclusion that RichardG was scum for logical reasons I carefully laid out in some detail, and voted for him. I kept voting for him, and kept attacking him, because I continued to think his behavior was more likely scum then town.

Where did this whole bizarre "attacking just one person is tunneling and that's scummy!" bs come from, anyway? If I'm town, and I think someone is scum, I'm going to attack them, I'm going to try to get the rest of the town to focus on them, and I'm going to keep attacking them until they convince me I was wrong, or until someone else looks scummier then they do, or until they're dead. Why is that scummy, exactly? That's clearly how a pro-town person who believes he's caught scum should act, isn't it?

[scotmany12]

Hey guys. Sorry about not posting yesterday. I had work and then I had to do a project for school. And tonight I have to write a paper for another class. So I don't think I'll get anything up tonight either. Tomorrow though definitely, before I have work.

I agree with Yos about the whole tunneling thing. Tunneling, at least the definition that is being used against yos, isn't scummy.

[DeathNote]

~Furcolow replaces FeFiFoFum. Thanks Furcolow!~

[PaltryExcuse]

You defended a dead, confirmed scum. Honestly, that right there is more then enough reason to lynch you, pretty much regardless of context.

I said the case on him read like a policy lynch. You disagree?

You also attacked Shanba for attacking that scum, using what I think is bad logic.

My thoughts were that Shanba's case on mipe echoed his new one on ksun and yet he left the wagon at its highest peak. What is bad about that?

You also pushed the mipe wagon all day, and based on my other suspicions and ksun's actions, I'm pretty sure that's where most of the scum were. I also don't think the reasons you gave for pushing the mipe wagon justified you staying on the wagon all day, never moving, never really scumhunting anywhere else, and attacking other people for daring to leave the wagon.

That's not how I saw it, or what I meant. I pushed the mipe wagon because I thought he was scum. Still do in fact. It retrospect it would lower my suspicions of Shanba simply do to he started a case on both mipe and ksun and left both at critical vote counts. And your accusation that I attacked people for simply leaving the wagon is preposterous. Anon and Korts both left the wagon and in that Post 620 I didn't attack them.

[PaltryExcuse]

Really, you got called out for tunnelling by Fonz, saw that he pointed at me and that there was a case elsewhere, and thought you'd join the club.

Also, this is fail. "Tunneling" isn't at all a scum tell, not even a little bit, and Fonz never said that it was. Town who think they've caught a scum will obviously focus on that person a great deal, and they should. The idea that I would change my suspicion just because I was "called out for tunneling" is a pretty lame defense on your part.

True enough, but it still looked weird.

How I see it:
The Fonz stepped in and basically pronounced the mipe wagon wrong and pushed for a different one. Everyone jumped off. TheFonz has some sway in this game. He points at you, saying you're tunnelling, and your next post points at me at the end. Before hand, my name wasn't mentioned by you at all (even after Anon puts out his case). So no, I don't think your tunnelling is a scum tell but the sudden accomadation to The Fonz is.

[PaltryExcuse]

Secondly, a mipe flip would tell us A HELL of a lot. We'd get information on nigh every person in the game I'd think (beyond Zoraster who replaced in for a nobody and has since done little).

Well, shouldn't you then lynch me? If it gives information on every person still alive in the game, I would sacrifice 1 townie.

I'm not voting you because the ksun flip does put a little doubt in my eyes as to your scumminess. If I thought a person was not scummy I wouldn't vote for them based on 'gaining information' alone. I'd prefer a flip of scum which would also provide information. Secondly, beyond RichardGHP's vote without any explanation, I doubt a wagon would start nevermind a lynch at this point. I don't think it'd be productive in the slightest to vote you.

Well, there was a definite 'Any counterwagon is better than a default lynch' element, certainly. But, you know, he gave us no reason what so ever to believe he was trying to help the town at all, and the fact that he was clearly as bad or worse than mipe but getting much less heat for it indicates more likely scum.

There's the counter argument that mipe was being bussed. It fits with his fatalistic behaviour for me.

I explain your last two comments better above hopefully.

@The Fonz: Why iamausername? Their initial post read townie in my eyes so I'm curious where you got that impression.

[PaltryExcuse]

@Paltry: Why me over mipe? And the FeFiFo post was me thinking I caught him online. Playing other game -> stop for a while to surf the net -> Saw FeFi new post and immediately set to posting something that will let me get a read on him. (The timestamps are slightly farther from what I remember though, but this is what I thought at the time and I will be honest with that.)

So you were prodding FeFi for content or did you think he a legitimate scum?

[Furcolow]

I'm here. Can someone give me a synopsis? I will catch up on the thread eventually, but I can't tonight, as I have 2/5 pages done on a paper that is due Friday, and I want to get it finished.

If you all want to ask me anything, or have a plan that I need to help with, let me know.

[Furcolow]

oh, well, I just Iso'd FFFF, and it appears that he was both inactive and not helpful to the town. I can assure you this is not a result of scumminess, and I will try to rectify this situation through actively scumhunting and being overall helpful to the town.

[Shanba]

@Shanba: I'd like to hear what you think of the major wagons D1. Which ones were scum driven and which ones were town driven?

Izzywagon is null. dahillwagon... I dunno. ksun was on it. But then ksun was on every wagon that wasn't ksun. In general I don't like the people who were on it, so I'm going to say scumdriven.

Interesting, though, that it had so much difficulty taking off. Compare it to the mipe wagon which simply skyrocketed in comparison.

I still maintain that the mipewagon was at least partially scum driven. He was an easy target to justify a vote on and I suppose that the scum therefore found him an easier target than dahill, or perhaps a less controversial one, particularly after his reaction under pressure.

The ksun wagon was probably town driven, as is the case with any scumwagon. However, I think it's more likely than normal to have a few scumbags on - ksun was a prime target for bussing.

Ricky was a wagon I really liked and I can't blame people for supporting it. At least two players I know to be town who are relatively strong players (WOOOH EGO - me and korts) supported it, so it's hardly inconceivable that there were more town on that wagon.

I got two working hypotheses for day 1. Suppose that a lot of the wagonny group I identified on day 1 were scum: in that case, the dahill wagon was almost entirely scum driven and dahill is v. likely town. The dahill wagon was not particularly strong, so scum can't drum up much support for lynching him from townies. Then mipe comes along and plays in a way that makes a lot of townies suspect him. That wagon then looks very much like a wagon on a townie that the scum suspect will be lynched, so they pile in on him. The difference in speed and size compared to dahill is because both scum and town are on the mipewagon and only scum are on the dahill wagon.

Then we have an issue when the ksun wagon sprouts up. In this hypothesis, the scum don't just bus him, they are the driving force that turns him into a leading wagon. Why would they do that? I guess the explanation that makes the most sense in that case is that they wanted to protect a more valuable Richardscum.

If the wagonny people are mostly town, then stuff changes. Richard almost certainly is town in this case, and the people voting him when the voting was tight (notably yos and quag, as well as myself switching wagons, I suppose) are very likey to be scum. In this situation, dahill becomes much more likely scum again (though given his pushing of the ksun wagon, I'm inclined to believe he's town either way), though mipe still looks town.

At the moment I'm running with the second hypothesis, hence the Yos vote.

[RichardGHP]

oh, well, I just Iso'd FFFF, and it appears that he was both inactive and not helpful to the town. I can assure you this is not a result of scumminess, and I will try to rectify this situation through actively scumhunting and being overall helpful to the town.

Using "town" and "mafia" instead of "green" and "red" would be a good start to improving your slot and your play in general.

[Yosarian2]

You defended a dead, confirmed scum. Honestly, that right there is more then enough reason to lynch you, pretty much regardless of context.

I said the case on him read like a policy lynch. You disagree?

Well, the reason I said "pretty much regardless of context" is this; no matter what reason given for it, trying to discourage the wagon on ksun is just something a scumbuddy is more likely to do then a town. Even if I agreed with you, it would STILL be a scum tell for you.

Beyond that, though, I find it kind of odd you were opposed to a "policy lynch" (I assume you mean lurker lynch?) ksun wagon when you were voting mipe all day for largely policy reasons. I mean, I know some people don't like the idea of policy lynches and oppose them consistantly (I don't really agree, especally for lurkers, but I don't want to get sidetracked into a theory argument here), but you didn't oppose "policy lynches" consistnatly; you only did so when it was a scum who was getting wagoned.

You also attacked Shanba for attacking that scum, using what I think is bad logic.

My thoughts were that Shanba's case on mipe echoed his new one on ksun and yet he left the wagon at its highest peak. What is bad about that?

Eh. If you thought the ksun and mipe wagon were similarly justified, then why were you so opposed to the ksun wagon while supporting the mipe wagon?

Beyond that, Shanba was starting to talk about being uncomfortable with the mipe wagon a while before he changed votes; you even asked him about that earlier.

You also pushed the mipe wagon all day, and based on my other suspicions and ksun's actions, I'm pretty sure that's where most of the scum were. I also don't think the reasons you gave for pushing the mipe wagon justified you staying on the wagon all day, never moving, never really scumhunting anywhere else, and attacking other people for daring to leave the wagon.

That's not how I saw it, or what I meant. I pushed the mipe wagon because I thought he was scum. Still do in fact. It retrospect it would lower my suspicions of Shanba simply do to he started a case on both mipe and ksun and left both at critical vote counts. And your accusation that I attacked people for simply leaving the wagon is preposterous. Anon and Korts both left the wagon and in that Post 620 I didn't attack them.

Wasn't that why you attacked Shanba, was because he left the wagon?

Anyway, I'd like to hear this. Why do you think mipe is scum? I find your inital vote for him pretty weak, considering you then kept your vote on him all day:

mipe:

He just seems to like voting... and now has jumped off of dahill1 for a rather odd reason. If town comes to a decision (after hearing their defense), they should lynch the person.

unvote

Unvote for now. I don't want a potential lynch when there still is 2 and half weeks to the day deadline.

This just seems like you're trying to win free town points.
Any information from mipe has to be gotten by asking him directly, and his finding Anon suspicious because he didn't give a reason for his initial vote seems ridiculous.

...

Vote: mipe

ANd then, later, you said this:

mipe

- Played bandwagon-y and scummy, and participated more before he was targetted and then lost all interest in playing afterwards. His attempt to scumhunt against Richard seems foolhardy, and a bit town. However, his early play still convinces me to keep my vote where it is.

So, to get this straight; it sounds like you voted mipe because "he seemed to like voting" and was"bandwagon-y" (I don't think that's any kind of scumtell), because you don't like his unvote for dahill (which I find kind of an odd, since you never really showed any signs of wanting dahill lynched yourself), because he wasn't answering question, and because he looked like he lost interest in the game. The second two points are the only ones that sound reasonable to me, and they sound like a policy lynch; you wanted to lynch mipe because he didn't seem to care much much the game anymore. That's why I thought your mipe vote was an attempt to policy lynch him, because policy-lynch type reasons are really the only reasons you gave that make sense to me.

So, did you have some other reasons for suspecting mipe, and for pushing his wagon all day over both the ksun wagon and the richard wagon? If so, what were they?

[Yosarian2]

I got two working hypotheses for day 1. Suppose that a lot of the wagonny group I identified on day 1 were scum: in that case, the dahill wagon was almost entirely scum driven and dahill is v. likely town. The dahill wagon was not particularly strong, so scum can't drum up much support for lynching him from townies. Then mipe comes along and plays in a way that makes a lot of townies suspect him. That wagon then looks very much like a wagon on a townie that the scum suspect will be lynched, so they pile in on him. The difference in speed and size compared to dahill is because both scum and town are on the mipewagon and only scum are on the dahill wagon.

Then we have an issue when the ksun wagon sprouts up. In this hypothesis, the scum don't just bus him, they are the driving force that turns him into a leading wagon. Why would they do that? I guess the explanation that makes the most sense in that case is that they wanted to protect a more valuable Richardscum.

I'm a little confused by this assumption, Shanba. Why does "the scum were pushing the mipe wagon" imply "the scum drove the ksun lynch wagon"? Who would be scum in this case? And why is that more likely then the hypothesis I was talking about, which is "most of the scum stayed on the mipe wagon, went into lurk-mode for the last week or so before deadline, and hoped that mipe would be deadline-lynched"?

[RichardGHP]

Hey look, Yosarian went two whole posts without mentioning me. Maybe there's a dayguiser...

[Furcolow]

oh, well, I just Iso'd FFFF, and it appears that he was both inactive and not helpful to the town. I can assure you this is not a result of scumminess, and I will try to rectify this situation through actively scumhunting and being overall helpful to the town.

Using "town" and "mafia" instead of "green" and "red" would be a good start to improving your slot and your play in general.

Can you refrain from referencing an ongoing game?
Especially one we're both alive in. I think that's against the rules...

[Quagmire]

I know I've been away a couple days and I apologize, but I'll also be V/LA through this weekend (busy tonight, going to Shea's place this weekend)

[Furcolow]

Vote: RichardGHP

Reasons:

1)He is letting meta ruin his opinion of me in his reference of another game we're in together.

2)dahill1- Thestatusquo (L-10)
mipe - PaltryExcuse, ksun482, sorasagoof, FeFiFoFum (L-7)
RichardGHP- scotmany12, Mipe, Yosarian2, Quagmire, korts, Shanba (L-5)
ksun482- dahill1, The Fonz, inHimshallibe, iamausername, Anon, RichardGHP, DizzyIzzyB13, VasudeVad, Zoraster (L-2)

Wouldn't it have been logical for ksun482 to be voting for Richard at the end? I know that it wouldn't change much, in that it would only put it at 7 in relation to 9, but 7 is a lot better than 4. I feel like ksun482 would have voted for Richard if Richard wasn't his mafia buddy.

3) I don't really like him
4) I feel like he is a relatively weak player

Lets Lynch RichardGHP, but take your time, we don't need to rush into anything.

[The Fonz]

The combo of scumhunting and personal vendetta present in the above post says town to me.

Vote: Paltry

I'll give Yos2 his head on this one. I know I said I'd explain why Paltry's mipe arguments suck, but i'm gonna have to put it off again. Spending a lot of time on the UK election atm.