Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[Quagmire]

vote: Yosarian2

[Quagmire]

I'm also going to reread scotmany, I recall him catching my eye earlier on day one as well.

[scotmany12]

Going to get something up tomorrow. Been having a bad day and dont have any motivation to do something tonight.

[Yosarian2]

You know, I really can't get over Yosarian with the obvious tunneling issues (as Fonz pointed out earlier, to which Yos didn't respond to) and the pushing of the 'easy-hard' case I outlined in day one.

Hmm? Fonz said I was tunneling and that that was a town tell for me. How would you like me to respond to that?

I don't really think I have been tunneling; I'm looking at multiple people. Unless by "tunneling" you mean "explaining my case on someone" in which case, yes, I've done that.

And that whole "easy-hard" thing is garbage. I hate it when people are like "Oh, person X is going after an easy wagon". Usually when a wagon is "easy", when there's a lot of good reasons to suspect person X, it means person X is scum.

[inHimshallibe]

Oh, duh.

vote: Quagmire

[Quagmire]

You know, I really can't get over Yosarian with the obvious tunneling issues (as Fonz pointed out earlier, to which Yos didn't respond to) and the pushing of the 'easy-hard' case I outlined in day one.

Hmm? Fonz said I was tunneling and that that was a town tell for me. How would you like me to respond to that?

I don't really think I have been tunneling; I'm looking at multiple people. Unless by "tunneling" you mean "explaining my case on someone" in which case, yes, I've done that.

And that whole "easy-hard" thing is garbage. I hate it when people are like "Oh, person X is going after an easy wagon". Usually when a wagon is "easy", when there's a lot of good reasons to suspect person X, it means person X is scum.

He put up this good wall of logic and said, "Oh, I just don't think this is true," which is why I referenced it, and I see it as the opposite; it's something I see you doing as scum.

Also, the 'easy' word was a little bit of a misnomer - the easy 'part' is actually that the case is pretty elementary and built on a house of cards... meaning that the reasons you gave weren't good reasons to suspect person X. They were obvious and blatant 'wiki'-style mafia tells.

[Yosarian2]

Also, the 'easy' word was a little bit of a misnomer - the easy 'part' is actually that the case is pretty elementary and built on a house of cards... meaning that the reasons you gave weren't good reasons to suspect person X.

Again, I have to say that you're just wrong here; the reasons I gave on day 1 for suspecting RichardG were and are 100% valid. Only reason I'm not voting him now is because I think the connection between PaltryExcuse and the dead scum are a stronger tell, but Richard is my #2 suspect, and if I had to guess I'd say they're probably both scum together.

They were obvious and blatant 'wiki'-style mafia tells.

This is just horrible logic. None of the reasons I gave for thinking RichardG are scum are "on the wiki", as far as I know. Now, they are scum tells I look for all the time, but that's because they work consistently well. And, frankly, I hate the whole "Oh, that's a wiki-tell so we can ignore it" logic; it's the new magic wand to make valid arguments that you don't like go away.

[mipe]

Not really; I think mipescum is a more likely prospect than mipeSK.

Sorry if I'm being dumb, but:

Since I started, I have always thought that

SK = Serialkiller (duh)

Scum = Baddie, basically. Scum could be mafia, SK, Wolf...

So are you saying that me being SK/mafia/etc. is more likely than me being just SK?

If yes, then, Congratulations, we have new Sherlock Holmes in here!

Before you all go "baww what do you mean", is that, well:
There were 2 kills last night. If there was a town killer, then nothing about that, but if there wasn't any sort of vig, that would mean there is mafia (1 or more on the same team) and a SK. Yes, me being 2/17 scum IS more likely than 1/17 of being scum.

[The Fonz]

The thing is, on my reading of the day, I see almost no one who really looks like they were pushing the Richardg wagon as a counterwagon to the ksun wagon. In fact, almost everyone on the Richard wagon was already on it when the ksun wagon got stated. I'm really not sure why you're calling the Richardg wagon a counterwagon; by any reasonable defintion of the word, it really wasn't.

Yos, this is just flat-out untrue. While the mipe wagon was technically in the lead for a very long time, it had kinda stalled at L-3 when I replaced in. Then inHim and I vote ksun, and ksun is the wagon with the momentum. No new arguments are being advanced in favor of a mipe lynch, no-one new is even thinking about joining the mipewagon, etc. Then you kick off the Richard wagon as an alternative counterwagon.

If you look at Mod ISO 13, mipe has fallen to third place, and the other two are tied, with IAAUN having jumped the ksun wagon, and Quag and Korts jumping the GHP wagon. At that point, clearly, the ksun wagons and Richard wagons are competing. After that, Anon votes ksun to put that wagon ahead (strongly protown timing) and then Richard does. When Richard votes ksun, ksun

is only one vote ahead of Richard

so your claim that he went later on when the lynch was basically decided is

factually inaccurate.

Izzy then votes ksun, and given her repeatedly stated conviction that Richard is town, and that mipe now appears to have fallen out of the running, that makes perfect sense. THEN Vasude and zoraster jump the ksun wagon, and those are the ones that really look like buses to me. I think one of those two is pretty damn likely to be scum.

After that, Shanba moves from ksun to Richard on the multiple-wagoning theory, and you do your damnedest to rally support for a GHP lynch. So at the very least, there's the pair of you who were clearly counterwagoning.

Also note: Yos, I did not say that tunnelling was a towntell for you, in general. What I said in this particular occasion I have a gut feeling you are town, based largely on the fact that your desperate, headlong and last minute rush to get a Richard lynch feels very much like the sort of thing a town Yos does, and very much not the sort of thing a Yos aligned with ksun would do, WIFOM acknowledged.

[iamausername]

If you look at Mod ISO 13, mipe has fallen to third place, and the other two are tied, with IAAUN having jumped the ksun wagon, and Quag and Korts jumping the GHP wagon. At that point, clearly, the ksun wagons and Richard wagons are competing. After that, Anon votes ksun to put that wagon ahead (strongly protown timing) and then Richard does. When Richard votes ksun, ksun

is only one vote ahead of Richard

so your claim that he went later on when the lynch was basically decided is

factually inaccurate.

Izzy then votes ksun, and given her repeatedly stated conviction that Richard is town, and that mipe now appears to have fallen out of the running, that makes perfect sense. THEN Vasude and zoraster jump the ksun wagon, and those are the ones that really look like buses to me. I think one of those two is pretty damn likely to be scum.

I've been rereading and just got to the part where the ksun votes start to pile up. I assume you're going off the mod's vote counts, but the order in those is wrong. ksun votes after mine went Dizzy -> Vas -> Richard -> Anon -> zoraster.

So basically, switch Anon and Vas in your analysis, because Vas is town, and Anon was bussing. On that note:

Vote: Anon

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Not really; I think mipescum is a more likely prospect than mipeSK.

Sorry if I'm being dumb, but:

Since I started, I have always thought that

SK = Serialkiller (duh)

Scum = Baddie, basically. Scum could be mafia, SK, Wolf...

So are you saying that me being SK/mafia/etc. is more likely than me being just SK?

If yes, then, Congratulations, we have new Sherlock Holmes in here!

Before you all go "baww what do you mean", is that, well:
There were 2 kills last night. If there was a town killer, then nothing about that, but if there wasn't any sort of vig, that would mean there is mafia (1 or more on the same team) and a SK. Yes, me being 2/17 scum IS more likely than 1/17 of being scum.

That's a stupidly picky point and oddly specific numbers.

[Shanba]

Yos is worrying me. It feels like he's playing as if he were Sherlock Holmes or something. He has his pet theory (that richard is scum) and he's basing his interpretation of the facts around that rather than around the circumstances of the ksun wagon.

What do I mean? Well, look at the way he dismisses me as a possible scum because he thinks Richard is scum. I would expect a player looking for associative tells to go something like "here paltry excuse does an action that makes him look like ksun's partner, and here Shanba does an action that make him look like ksun's partner etc." But for Yos right now he is staring through the lens of Richardscum so that even though he thinks my actions look scummy, he doesn't think I'm scum.

Sure, he could say "well I think Richard is still scummy despite being the leading counterwagon and thus I don't think Shanba's actions are that scummy" but that's not what he's doing.

Also I don't really get the fact that he's voting Paltry over Richard (here's his stated reasons for that; his paltryexcuse case is further back in his iso).

Again, I have to say that you're just wrong here; the reasons I gave on day 1 for suspecting RichardG were and are 100% valid. Only reason I'm not voting him now is because I think the connection between PaltryExcuse and the dead scum are a stronger tell, but Richard is my #2 suspect, and if I had to guess I'd say they're probably both scum together.

I dunno. Everything he's saying is coherent, it just feels like the picture he is drawing up is stretched, dependent on too many things being just so.

There's something else that bugs me, too. He brings up a single example to show why we shouldn't assume that Ricky is town just because he was the counterwagon to scum. Okey doke, that's all fine and dandy, but a single counterexample doesn't stop something being a useful tell. And what's more, given Yos' playstyle, this should be doubly obvious/important to him. He's basically dismissing the tell on the basis of one piece of anecdotal evidence.

I see Fonz' WIFOM but in my experience with trying to read Yos, a Yos I find it hard to agree with is often a scumYos.

When I'm looking at the players, the vote counts and etc, I think FFFF is a good fallback wagon who is slightly more likely than average to be scum, but I think we have enough info from day 1 that we ought to be able to do better. Paltryexcuse is scummy, but I think Yos' case on him is somewhat overblown.

Basically, the way PaltryExcuse attacks me over swapping wagons feels town. It's like, I jump off mipe and onto ksun and he thinks "hrm, from one lurker to another? That's odd. I wonder what his reasons are," then asks me for my reasons, finds them insufficient and says it makes me likely scum. I mean, he does the same thing to Korts earlier on, so it's clearly something that he's looking for.

If he's scum trying to derail the ksun wagon, surely he would not be giving an explanation for attacking me where his possibility of attacking me is dependent on giving him a particular answer? The anatomy of the attack, the way he gives me an opportunity to defend myself, just seems town.

I think Yos is likely to be scum.

Vote: Yosarian2

Anon and Vas were two of the players I fingered yesterday in my wagon analysis. Given how that turned out, I'm a wee bit leery of assuming they're bussing scum. (A side note - all the players who jumped on every wagon that day also jumped on the ksun wagon rather than the Ricky wagon. One scenario in which the scum would rush to bus one of their members that would make sense is if they thought Ricky was a more valuable member of their scumteam than ksun, which is entirely possible given ksun's play yesterday. But ksun was a mafia power role, so yeah.)

[VasudeVa]

Still here, be catching up soon. My other game took up most of my short mafia time in these busy days of mine. I like the Yos case, but I'm going to be following up with someone else who I've been suspicious of D1.

[DeathNote]

Vote Count

PaltryExcuse- Anon, Yos (L-7
FeFiFoFum- dahill1 (L-8)
Yosarian2- Quagmire, Shanba (L-7)
Quagmire- inHimshallibe (L-8)
Anon- iamausername (L-8)

Not Voting:

RichardGHP, Thestatusquo, VasudeVa, DizzyIzzyB13, Scotmany12, PaltryExcuse, Mipe, FeFiFoFum, zoraster, The Fonz

With 17 alive, its 9 to lynch.

Prods going out today for anyone who has not posted day 2. FeFiFoFum is being replaced.

~Forwards, I am heavy... but backwards, I am not. What am I?~

[mipe]

Not really; I think mipescum is a more likely prospect than mipeSK.

Sorry if I'm being dumb, but:

Since I started, I have always thought that

SK = Serialkiller (duh)

Scum = Baddie, basically. Scum could be mafia, SK, Wolf...

So are you saying that me being SK/mafia/etc. is more likely than me being just SK?

If yes, then, Congratulations, we have new Sherlock Holmes in here!

Before you all go "baww what do you mean", is that, well:
There were 2 kills last night. If there was a town killer, then nothing about that, but if there wasn't any sort of vig, that would mean there is mafia (1 or more on the same team) and a SK. Yes, me being 2/17 scum IS more likely than 1/17 of being scum.

That's a stupidly picky point and oddly specific numbers.

I have *never* seen a team of Serial Killers. Ever. Because that, I assume that this being a normal game, if there is a serial killer, it is alone.

Notice the '1 or more on the same team' part. Seeing as this is 20 players, 2 teams of scum, I would totally see 2mafia/1sk or 3mafia/1sk. 4mafia/1sk seems kind of iffy, 25% of scum at the start of the game sounds too unbalanced for me.

[mipe]

~Forwards, I am heavy... but backwards, I am not. What am I?~

Oh, double post, but, meh. Now that I'm more active, might as well.

'Ton'

[Shanba]

Mafiascum balancers typically put 3 scum in a twelve player game, mipe. Why would you expect so few scum in a large game? Even 3:1:8 is not unheard of.

(It's interesting to note that these games are unbalanced in mountainous, but largely irrelevant, as most games feature seriously powerful roles such as cop, which in the ms meta is almost always sane.)

[Yosarian2]

Yos is worrying me. It feels like he's playing as if he were Sherlock Holmes or something. He has his pet theory (that richard is scum) and he's basing his interpretation of the facts around that rather than around the circumstances of the ksun wagon.

No, not really. My suspicion for and vote on Paltry Excuse are largely independent of Richard's alignment. No matter if I'm right or wrong about Richard, the fact stands that PaltryExcuse defended a scum (at the risk of being accused of "using wikitells" or whatever again, it really looks like a chainsaw defense to me, attacking you because you were attacking his buddy ksun) while pushing the mipe wagon all day. Also, I don't really see much that he's done that was pro-town.



The fact that PaltryExcuse being scum also fits well into a Richard-scum theory is a bonus, but not really a big deal; I more talked about likely partners as something to take note of after we lynch PaltryExcuse and he, presumably, flip scum.

What do I mean? Well, look at the way he dismisses me as a possible scum because he thinks Richard is scum. I would expect a player looking for associative tells to go something like "here paltry excuse does an action that makes him look like ksun's partner, and here Shanba does an action that make him look like ksun's partner etc." But for Yos right now he is staring through the lens of Richardscum so that even though he thinks my actions look scummy, he doesn't think I'm scum.

No, that's not what I said.

If Richard is town and Ksun is scum, then that action of your swould be scummy there, yes. We don't have enough information yet to know that, though; and until we know Richard's alignment it would be foolish to count that as a tell against you (since if Richard is scum, the way you switched wagons there is null at worst). It's foolish to attack person A based on unproven assumptions about person B's alignment, especially when person B's alignment is in significant doubt.

On a side note, I don't really have a problem with any of your other actions on day 1, which is another reason I'm not willing to attack you for your wagon switch at this point. It's also worth mentioning that if PaltryExcuse flips scum, that would also make you pretty close to confirmed town in my eyes, since I think that whole thing where he attacked you for attacking ksun is very unlikely to have been one scum faking an attack on another for voting for a third scum; that's just too convoluted to make sense.

Sure, he could say "well I think Richard is still scummy despite being the leading counterwagon and thus I don't think Shanba's actions are that scummy" but that's not what he's doing.

I think Richard is scummy, and I think he wasn't a "counterwagon" at all. I don't have enough information yet to judge your action there, and I won't until we know Richard's alignment.

There's something else that bugs me, too. He brings up a single example to show why we shouldn't assume that Ricky is town just because he was the counterwagon to scum. Okey doke, that's all fine and dandy, but a single counterexample doesn't stop something being a useful tell. And what's more, given Yos' playstyle, this should be doubly obvious/important to him. He's basically dismissing the tell on the basis of one piece of anecdotal evidence.

(shrug) If you make an assumption, and it burns you badly, you tend to stop making that assumption for a while.

In any case, the whole "counterwagon" argument assumes that one wagon was pushed in order to derail a different wagon, and that's not really how I see the Richard wagon unfolding on day 1.

Basically, the way PaltryExcuse attacks me over swapping wagons feels town. It's like, I jump off mipe and onto ksun and he thinks "hrm, from one lurker to another? That's odd. I wonder what his reasons are," then asks me for my reasons, finds them insufficient and says it makes me likely scum. I mean, he does the same thing to Korts earlier on, so it's clearly something that he's looking for.

If he's scum trying to derail the ksun wagon, surely he would not be giving an explanation for attacking me where his possibility of attacking me is dependent on giving him a particular answer? The anatomy of the attack, the way he gives me an opportunity to defend myself, just seems town.

Meh. The thing is, the timing of the attack feels off to me. He's attacking you for "going after one lurker instead of another", but yet, while he's attacking mipe for lurking, he never even seems to look at ksun for lurking.

Also, looking at that post, it really seems like he's going out of his way to defend the mipe wagon, in a way that fits what I'd expect if he's scum and his buddies were also on the wagon (we know for a fact that ksun was).

[Yosarian2]

Yos, this is just flat-out untrue. While the mipe wagon was technically in the lead for a very long time, it had kinda stalled at L-3 when I replaced in. Then inHim and I vote ksun, and ksun is the wagon with the momentum. No new arguments are being advanced in favor of a mipe lynch, no-one new is even thinking about joining the mipewagon, etc. Then you kick off the Richard wagon as an alternative counterwagon.

At the point I voted for Richard, there were only 4 votes for ksun, and there were still 8 votes sitting on mipe.

The thing you seem to be forgetting is, this is a plurality game. Scum didn't need to get a "real lynch" on anyone; whoever has the most votes at deadline dies. It dosn't really matter if new arguments were being made for the mipewagon or not; if the game just stagnated and drifted through to deadline in that state, mipe would have been lynched. Notice also that many of the people on the mipe wagon basically lurked for most of the rest of the day from this point; I strongly suspect that most of the scum were there, and that they just decided to sit tight, shut up, and hope to coast through to a mipe mislynch.

If you look at Mod ISO 13, mipe has fallen to third place, and the other two are tied, with IAAUN having jumped the ksun wagon, and Quag and Korts jumping the GHP wagon.

Well, this is the way I see it.

-Up until post 602, mipe was still the leading bandwagon. It was only up by one vote, but that's enough in a plurality lynch game, and at this point, it's only about 48 hours until deadline.

-In post 602, Izzy jumpes to the Ksun wagon. This is quickly followed by Va and then by Richard.

-From this point on, ksun is by far the leading bandwagon. Also note that, from this point on, almost no one joins the Richard wagon; the only person who does, as I pointed out, is Shanba.

So, no, I don't think the Richard wagon was a "counterwagon" at all, in the normal sense of the word, which is "a wagon driven by scum to try to prevent a scum buddy from being lynched". The main wagon, the one that would have been a deadline lynch, up until 2 days before the deadline, was the mipe wagon. I suspect that scum trying to prevent a ksun lynch would have mostly been pushing that wagon up until that point. And after the Ksun wagon becomes the predominant wagon, there was no real new movement onto the Richard wagon, except Shanba.

[dahill1]

mipe replace out now.

[PaltryExcuse]

Firstly, about mipe and ksun having the same play? They didn't.
Mipe played the game and did more than vote initially (though stumbling). Ksun was mindless and just voted and parrotted. A Ksun-lynch was a response to some not liking the mipe lynch and stagnation in the game and has little to do with how he played. I'll admit I found him scummy initially... until it became obvious he didn't DO anything except vote. Then it became a matter of how could ANYONE know.

mipe - Played bandwagon-y and scummy, and participated more before he was targetted and then lost all interest in playing afterwards. His attempt to scumhunt against Richard seems foolhardy, and a bit town. However, his early play still convinces me to keep my vote where it is.

too.weak.stance is not logical with him being so sure about mipe being scum. Gogogogo scumlynch.

Vote: PaltryExcuse.

It actually went like this:
- mipe was trying to play early on
- a wagon is built upon him so he becomes intentionally useless
- bandwagon dies for someone I see as having never played the game and is essentially useless (Overall, a null tell)
- Now that the pressure is no longer on him he goes back to playing 'town'
- mipe did nothing by himself to sway anything and the wagon DIES
- I saw that as a scummy swing of things and cemented my belief of newbscum on mipe
It isn't weak in my eyesm and is perfectly logical. The slight town tell is overtaken by his change of behaviour.

Especally of note, look at PaltryExcuse's post 620. He attacks Shanba for leaving the mipe wagon for the ksun wagon, saying you were just "jumping from one lurker to the next". Also, if you read that post, he seems especally sensitive to suggestions from you that there are scum on the mipe wagon. I think they're all there.

Anyway, reading Paltry in iso, I think he's probably the best suspect right now. Along with otherwise scummy behavior, he's got the strongest link to ksun, with his post in 620. And he never moved his vote off of the mipe wagon.

Vote:PaltryExcuse

Likely scumbuddies: FeFiFi, RichardG.

I do point at those whom left the wagon as I thought mipe was scum and watched people abandon it relatively close to the deadline in favour of the weaker argument of the two that could be attributed to mipe. Mipe's change in behaviour still makes no sense to me from a town perspective. Could you explain it? Along with that, explain my otherwise scummy behaviour, and my strong link to ksun. Might as well throw in my suspicions of sorasgoof and RichardG despite being on the wagon with me that I express in Post 620.

Really, you got called out for tunnelling by Fonz, saw that he pointed at me and that there was a case elsewhere, and thought you'd join the club.

---

Mipe's behaviour still concerns me. He's suddenly become more active than he was when lynching seemed imminent. He only really scumhunts in my eyes whenever he's no longer in trouble. A behavioural change is a tell for me. Secondly, a mipe flip would tell us A HELL of a lot. We'd get information on nigh every person in the game I'd think (beyond Zoraster who replaced in for a nobody and has since done little).

VasudeVa is the other who still bothers me. VasudeVa jumped from wagon to wagon yesterday, finally finishing on the scumlynch after the mipe wagon was taking A LOT of flak. Vas's movements were ridiculous early on, and my concerns about him leaving the mipe wagon are individual based and completely separate from anything I have on mipe. His NK analysis and his accusation at Yos today remain unexplained.
His play is just a series of buzz words and agreeing with others' cases.
See this post and this post:
- attacking Fx4 is useless; it is ridiculously easy and the lazy scum accusation is crazy talk
- early in the day he says he finds him to be lazy townie... what exactly changed that opinion on him? Is it something in his ISO?
- his defense is to post three insults at the argument, ask a confusing question and finish with an accusatory question

Vote: VasudeVa

[inHimshallibe]

I've not had the time to give to this game what it deserves from me in the form of a post. Will be back later.

For now:
@PE - Three reasonable, possible living partners of VaVa?
@Yos - ^^ but with PE?

[PaltryExcuse]

mipe, Yosarian2, and either Shanba/Shea.

Yosarian2's accusation of me seems timely rather than legitimate. If he can explain his case against me beyond 'he is acting scummy' that'd be great.

Shanba is a continuation of the confusion I felt from him near the end of Day 1, but his ideas on Shea made me feel much better about him and convinced me slightly. Makes my mind go one or the other.

RichardGHP is a fourth, but I'm doubting a bus from Yosarian unless RichardGHP is a weak mafia member (just a goon or something).

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2's accusation of me seems timely rather than legitimate. If he can explain his case against me beyond 'he is acting scummy' that'd be great.

You defended a dead, confirmed scum. Honestly, that right there is more then enough reason to lynch you, pretty much regardless of context.

You also attacked Shanba for attacking that scum, using what I think is bad logic.

You also pushed the mipe wagon all day, and based on my other suspicions and ksun's actions, I'm pretty sure that's where most of the scum were. I also don't think the reasons you gave for pushing the mipe wagon justified you staying on the wagon all day, never moving, never really scumhunting anywhere else, and attacking other people for daring to leave the wagon.

Basically, looking at vote patterns and general patterns of behavior, you show a stronger connection to the dead scum (ksun) then anyone else in the game, as far as I can tell.

[Yosarian2]

Really, you got called out for tunnelling by Fonz, saw that he pointed at me and that there was a case elsewhere, and thought you'd join the club.

Also, this is fail. "Tunneling" isn't at all a scum tell, not even a little bit, and Fonz never said that it was. Town who think they've caught a scum will obviously focus on that person a great deal, and they should. The idea that I would change my suspicion just because I was "called out for tunneling" is a pretty lame defense on your part.

@Yos - ^^ but with PE?

I already said that I think RichardG and FeFiFo are likely scumbuddies of PE. I'm not sure who a fourth one would be; most likely there's someone on the scum group who wasn't on the mipe wagon yesterday, but it could be any one of a number of people.