Open 215 - Gurgi EC8 - Game Show Mafia, Over

[farside22]

vote: Cirno

for flaking on another game. Shame on you.

[farside22]

I played most recently in a game with yos2 for pyp with a weak doctor (same idea). He basically talked about a weak doc protecting someone he thought was the most town and also made points in his post sharing who he thought was most town. (As others did as well)
This worked out to the town's advantage as he in regards for a weak cop as well. We all talk about who we find most town in some regards or another. This leaves room for the weak cop as well to discuss it and then start confirming.

[farside22]

The game I played was 12 players with 3 mafia.
The reason I think a weak cop should just check out someone they believe to be town is so there is less death
IE: weak cop checks player X who they find to be the most town. They live and they verified the player to be town.
If the cop dies and no one else does it's typically a mafia kill. I could see a bit of WIFOM but only if scum is smart.

Sadly in the game where Yosi talked about who he found most town he stated it was me and died and I was thusly lynched and found as scum the next day.

[farside22]

The one thing i find not good about the cop or cops if we even have any is that if they claim who they are going to investigate that doesn't mean the mafia won't use that to their advantage.

EX:
Say Farside is a cop, and she says she is going to invstigate MrSandman because she thinks he is town.
Option 1:
MrSandman is town, the mafia knows this and kills Farside to make it seem like Sandman is mafia, quick lynch next day, if there are no other cops that would be mafia's game (8 alive, lynch town unless we get lucky, 7 at night, Far dies, 6 alive, sand dies, 5 left, mafia knight kills and wins)
Option 2:
MrSandman is mafia, lets farside investigate him and kills off a different person. That leave 5 the next morning, and using WIFOM mafia could maybe, just maybe, get people to not lynch mrsandman and instead lynch a townie and they win.

Either way it doesn't seem like a clear way to win.

Option 1

If one player dies why would anyone believe that the cop that died found scum? It's more WIFOM then confirmed scum.

Option 2

2 people dead and one is a weak cop. 99% the cop investigated scum (1% is mod screw up) and that player should be lynched post haste.
This is what got me lynched in pyp2 was 2 deaths one being the weak doc.

[farside22]

Mod: I sent you a PM can you please respond to it.

[farside22]

@Farside
Ok i gotcha on option one and two. To me it seems to benefit scum with the WIFOM argument.

Option 1 could but again scum would have to suspect which player they think could be (if any). I'm not going to expand on how to WIFOM the town until or if we get to this point.

unvote:
vote: wolf

I'm not liking so far that he seems to already want to smeer the weak cop information with WIFOM.

[farside22]

I'm not trying to smeer weak cop info with WIFOM, i'm just saying WIFOM is going to play a big part in this set up, but go ahead and vote me if you want.

How is option 2 going to cause WIFOM?

[farside22]

Like I said I can see some WIFOM with option 1 but I'm not going there and I don't like the implications to do so. This isn't lets help scum try and WIFOM the town, this is how do we use a possible weak cop to the town advantage.

[farside22]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.
Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.


chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

[farside22]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

unvote:
vote: Chnorok

@Sens that is a good point but if everyone just claims who they will target and it's not the same person we might as well almost do a circle hypocheck claim.
Then there is Vel's idea of having the most townie person saying who they would check and doing popcorn. I would suggest maybe doing this idea closer to the end of the day. I would rather force those who are scummiest to pick last on who they would check.

[farside22]

I agree that cops should investigate town. We're in LyLo tomorrow if all we do is mislynch Town today. If cops investigate scum we're that much closer to a loss.

But you then run into the issue of believing any cop claims tomorrow. Someone who comes out on Day 2 and says "I'm a cop, and yesterday I hypo'd X as stated and I"m still here, so X must be Town" - you can't trust that right off the bat. It could easily be scum fake claiming it.

The game's not going to be as simple as "follow the cop". We're going to have to temper any claims with a lot of careful analysis.

This is why I ask about 20 questions to people if there is a claim and it depends on how the player acted day 1 and variable other things that a smart town player should do in case of a claim.

[farside22]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

I didn't think of there being more then one weak cop. So I retract my thought on the claims and do where each person claims a seperate person.

[farside22]

If we go with everyone saying who they think is most town at the end of the day, I still think it should take into consideration whatever the lynchee flips. I think this is important because if the flip is unexpected, the player that the cop initially thought looked town now looks scummy, do they still investigate? If they don't, they will likely lose credibility if they claim at a later stage in the game

Valid point and this may be where one person will have to say they will check a player that someone else claimed they would check.

So basically near the end as we get closer to lynch who ever was assigned to the player that will be lynched can pick another player they would hypothetically check.
This could lead if 2 weak cops checking the same person. So ti's a thought in progress right now.

Mr. Sandman why did you agree that the cops outting themselves was a good idea?

[farside22]

farside, can you better explain 70 please?

I'm still thinking things out and I have my brain in too many games at the same time so bare with me a sec.

So lets say we hypoclaim who we investigate. We decide the most town person to claim and so forth. However there is one person who will who will be forced into hypoclaiming that they are going to investigate the player that is lynched today. If that last person is the actual cop then that hypoclaim does no good. Or even if that player is town that hypoclaim does not good to confuse the mafia. So my proposal is the last person to hypoclaim should be alloud to pick anyone they want.

[farside22]

Some people I notice are talking about lylo tomorrow possiblity. If we have a weak cop and they lived and checked someone town that increases the chances in town's favor.

Start with 6 town 2 scum
Say we mislynch today
5 town, 2 scum.
Scum kills a VT
4 town, 2 scum
cop claims who he checked.
The mafia can of course try to counter claim at this point but again for me it will depend on the player, what they said, how they acted and answers to questions. hypoclaim also forces players we find scummy to not get a first pick. We have to watch out for those who could be killed by the scum team. Scum will know for instance that if someone hypoclaiming says they will check them and lives the next day that the player is not a cop.

Ugh my head it's not liking the odds on this now.

[farside22]

Ok this is probably gonna sound bad but i'm gonna say it anyways, what about no lynching today?

6 town two scum
no lynch tonight, hypo claim
either 1 person dies to mafia kill and we get 0-3claims next day leaving us with
5 town two scum and either claims to help narrow down field, or no claims and we are back to square one.

Of course there is always the possibility that there is an extra 1-2 kills at night depending on how many, if any, cops we have and who they investigate, they could unfortunately depending on how many cops we have (lets say three) chances are slim but they might accidently target a mafia each, leaving us with three deaths at night, waking up to a 3 town two scum next morning, but if that happened i think that would wrap the game up from there. I dunno if I am thinking this out correctly though. Any thoughts?

I was thinking about this to honestly. I know people hate the idea of no lynch. There is 2 problems with this. Lying scum and if the scum kill a weak cop (if one exist). Remember 1 death is WIFOM, 2 deaths means weak cop found scum.

[farside22]

popcorn is fine, but we still need to think who should go first.
my thought would be wolf.

People I would like to hear more from Sens, Cirno and mavsfan. I feel these three have been the quietist this game.

unvote:

[farside22]

@farside: What exactly do you want to hear about?

Also, no way I'm going for a no lynch.

What is with the gut reads? Where is the post that is supposed to give more info? What plan to you like best if there is a weak cop in the set up?

[farside22]

The gut read came from your vote on wolf for attempting to "smear the weak cop information with WIFOM. ".

I like the idea of everyone stating who they will investigate before the day ends.

Where is the post that is supposed to give more info?

What about your gut call on Wolf?

[farside22]

Vel I think we should just have one player we feel is more town and let them pick who goes next. I know there is 2 scum's in this set up based on the front page but I can still see manipulation from the scum if we list our top 3 or 4 town people of them trying to get one of them as town.

[farside22]

Reading back i probably gut my feeling from farside's vote on wolf in 48.

I'll leave the strategy discussion to you all.

Gut and post 48 is mine soooo why would you want to vote wolf?

[farside22]

I don't want to vote wolf. I wanted to and did vote for you.

Ah you didn't like my vote on wolf. Now I understand. So you still think I'm scummy if so why?

[farside22]

FoS: farside

for trying to build fake case on Cirno

Yay she's being real clear what she meant in her post there and oh so more informative.

How did you know when you RVS'ed me that I was talking about a current game Chnorek?

[farside22]

i didnt know. i just assumed you did to bring any reason for my random vote. why do you ask?

Just looking for connections. Found it a bit odd like you seem to know it as fact. Something I'm going to ponder for a bit.

[farside22]

Does anyone else think if we're going for a no lynch today, which makes sense, we should all vote as normal just now and unvote nearer the lynch in order to obtain the no lynch? I think the lack of votes will stunt discussion and make it harder to get either scum or townie readings

This is a good idea.

[farside22]

I'm not sure there's time for much more discussion - it'll probably take 4-5 days at least to get through a popcorn hypocop with this many people.

I'll 'officially'

Pseudovote: Wolf

as the first to claim. Then he can pick the person he thinks most likely to be Town to claim next, and so on.

It's only 8 people. Just having the majority agreeing on who they wish to claim first may take a day or 2. (depending on those who post and how often).
I

Pseudovote: Wolf to claim first

After that I think those lurking (nontalkers) are going to be the ones that will be the hardest to get something from.

[farside22]

Sorry I have been really busy at work lately. I will be investigating Vel tonight.

Next up to claim is Sandman.

[farside22]

Note to all game:
I got swarmed at work. Will be on tempory leave for the next 2 days.

[farside22]

I would vote on Cirno. She hasn't commented much about the game itself. Finds everyone suspicious with no reasoning. I could see with our talks scum wanting to lynch more then town at this point.
Tomorrow once we have some results scum will know (since 2 of them will be targets tonight) who is not a cop(s).
I see no issue with having discussion on our views of people.
Wolf any reason you picked Sens to chose next?
@everyone who is the player(s) you find scummy at this point?

[farside22]

@wolf: I had a town read on Vel during the discussion.

So Cirno: With the idea that maybe there could be 2 weak cops.
8 players
1 mislynch
night 2 cops investigate scum
scum kills vt player

there is no day 2. That is 4 players alive. This is the worse case obviously but I would rather take a chance at a no lynch in something like that happens then have 3 town 2 scum and some info based on the hypoclaim for a town win.

[farside22]

And how likely is that to happen? Odds wise, It is more likely that the no lynch will benefit scum. I would rather risk it and have something to go on in the following days than no lynch and go in with nothing but claims that may or may not even be forthcoming and that are destined to be wifomed to death if they do.

*looks in crystal ball*

I see in the future if a Vt is put at L-1 claiming truthful and lynched.
I see more but it's fuzzy and not helpful to the town.

In short the best I see if we chose to lynch today is a mislynch.

[farside22]

My mother is a psychic and she says that crystal balls are for chumps and swindlers.

But can you clarify that last post? Are you saying that we shouldn't lynch because there is a chance we could mislynch?

We will more likely mislynch. I'm not helping the scum on my reason's further. I most likely see someone being run up to L-1 claiming VT (just saying) and then being lynched and flipping VT.
I already can predict the chaos of putting a scum member to L-1.

[farside22]

So you

are

saying that we shouldn't lynch because we might mislynch? I'm saying that lynch

or

mislynch we will have more useful information for dealing with whatever may occur during the night or tomorrow. As it is, we are headed towards day 2 with extremely weak suspicions and very little to hold anyone to.

What type of information do you suspect will occur with a mislynch? This to me isn't maybe I will hit scum. I'm expecting a mislynch at this point.
Worse case with voting is we hit a power role and out a weak cop. Oh good we just helped the scum more on who to target. I would like to keep the scum uninformed thanks very much.

[farside22]

We would gain the same information we would gain from a mislynch in any other game. We get votes and reasoning to analyze, we get a flip, and we get a chance to kill scum. We would have a opportunity to form a better opinion of each player than 'I would vote this player because they aren't contributing'. People will actually be forced to voice their opinion and explain where they stand and why.

Why exactly do you believe we are more likely to mislynch in this game than any other game? Yes, scum may learn something from it, but so will

town

. It is more important for town to gain information than to prevent scum from doing so.

Difference with most games I at least have a hope I will hit scum. This one no such hope is in me. But knock yourself out I'm not going to agree and will just point to my prediction for the remaining part of the day.

I notice no one else seems to have formed an oppinion on the subject.

[farside22]

But why don't you have any hope in this game? This is a pretty small game, so the odds are actually higher than most other games.

Stupid questions. Scum gets to L-1 what do you think they will claim?
Would you hammer said person after the claim?

[farside22]

I don't remember anyone claiming cop in that game. I remember someone claiming doc and that was Kmd who was the doc Cirno

[farside22]

You absolutely did not play in that game. I just read the whole fucking thread.

Yes she did. She's an alt.

[farside22]

...is anyone going to bother telling who she's claiming to be, so I can tell why I was linked to that game in response to asking if she would lynched a claimed WC?

She asked me not to tell. I will leave it up to her. Though why she would share a link with her other name in there makes little sense to me.

[farside22]

That was more of a question to Farside, but i will let it pass, will also be trying to find this ongoing game.

Cirno asked in Hell here she sent me a pm with a bribe not to tell anyone who she really was.

[farside22]

Not sure why you think Sens is coming off scummy there Vel. This is the most sensible I have seen Sens act in a game in some time. Usually I don't see him being that way. And I think the back and forth between Sens and Cirno is just stupid. Cirno if your going to give info of a game that you are an alt in then tell people who you are in the game and stop with the take a guess here or 4 games to look at.
You always have a tendancy to make me want to drink.

That said I didn't realize the deadline was today but I like the no lynch.

vote: No Lynch

[farside22]

Not sure why you think Sens is coming off scummy there Vel.

Why do you think I thought Sens was coming off scummy? Not at all what I intended. I was merely commenting on the bickering as that's what's taken up the majority of the last two pages.

man I'm lossing it I swore I saw you call Sens scummy.

Sorry about that.

[farside22]

fos: Chronek

I have to see if mavsfan was paying attention enough to check on who he was assigned to investigate

[farside22]

Alright just looked at when mavsfan41 last posted and when we had the list of who was checking who. He did post after the list was completed but didn't say anything on following thru.

I would like others views on this.

[farside22]

@Sens and Farside: What specifically made you think that Wolf is Town? I believe that on Day 1 both of you explicitly stated that Wolf was Town. I would like to hear your reasoning please. Be as specific as possible.

More later.

For me it was particle him discussion the game but my real town view was when he was the first to mention doing no lynch. Typically something like that is met with scorn and suspicion and I can't see scum being the first to mention something like that and be under suspicion for the idea.
Also just vibes/gut reading Wolf.

As for mavs I'm going on the assumption he read what was going on and checked out the player he was assigned to check.
I also think chnorek and Cirno are scum together at this point.

For those wondering why it comes from the first vote and question I asked. chnorek voted me for talking about an ongoing game. I asked him why he thought I was talking about an ongoing game. This was his response when I asked him about his RVS vote:

i didnt know. i just assumed you did to bring any reason for my random vote. why do you ask?

Now he had a shot in the dark on being right and I know as a mod I allow the scum team to communicate pre-game. Pretty sure with the thread closed yawetag allowed communication between the scum team as well.
I wondered if Cirno may have brought up that we were in a game together still on going.
Plus I noticed another time where Chnorek was quick to come to Cirno's defense.

FoS: farside

for trying to build fake case on Cirno

[farside22]

I'm for the the massclaim. This seems as good a time as any, especially seeing as we have nothing but

speculation

scum hunting to go on (as farside demonstrates)..

Fixed

I also don't believe in coincidences but I do have another theory on all this of who could be chnorek's scum partner.
However that is speculation. Now I find it most fasinating that your talking about a mass claim when in essence there is either 1 or 2 more weak cops, 2 scum (and hey if you want to claim scum be my guess) and the rest is vt so how does a mass claim help when there may not be another weak cop?

[farside22]

Just for clarification, you agree that chnorek is scum, yes?

90% sure on this based on mavs death. the 10% concerned he was not reading the thread.
There is a chance we do not have another weak cop. What are you expecting with a mass claim?

............

I actually may be supporting a mass claim for another reason but let me see what Cirno say's first to the question.

[farside22]

This is all really fasinating stuff people but lets remember a few things at this stage with 6 people left
we have 2 scum
4 town

After yesterday and a dead cop we know as town who the cop was checking. However the scum know at least one play (possible unless we got lucky and scum was forced to investigate scum) that the scum knows of one player that is not a weak cop.
So the scum in more informed then the town on things in my view.

Also a hypoclaim does no good if there is not another cop. Scum will continue to hid and try for a fake claim tomorrow unless there is another cop.
Now think of this for a moment.
We have another cop lets just say. That investigated a player and they are a live.
That means we have 2 players semi confirmed.
(I say semi because the "cop" claim could be a fake). 1 confirmed town (I say confirmed town do to the cop death today)
If I missed anything in this let me know.

[farside22]

Sens chose Vel to select after him in popcorn not Chrnorek.

[farside22]

Is it really any surprise to anyone that Cirno is tunelling on me?

No but I did note that sandman was the one to die and he was the one that hypoclaimed to investigate you. It was the part were I speculate that you could be scum do to that and thinking he was a weak cop but it's more speculation. I still like Cirno as partners with chnorek right now.

[farside22]

vote: chnorek

If we do hypo claiming we should get it out of the way now.

I personally would investigate Cirno if I was the cop.

[farside22]

@farside, wolf, & Cirno:

how do you feel about Sensfan?

Sens feels town in this game but I have that little voice in my head that never trust him.

[farside22]

VRK is making absolutely no sense here.

If he is Town:
1) He thinks I am possibly/likely Scum, and yet is choosing to hypoclaim me
2) He's broadcasting to the world to leave Cirno/Me alive tonight, regardless of who the last Scum is
3) He's still talking to chronek like there's any chance at all chronek isn't Scum, and won't be lynched today

1) I see cirno as scummy and hypoclaimed him as a target why is it scummy to VRK and not me?
2) there's one scum left (I believe chro is scum so theory for tonight one scum left) why broadcast?
3) I agree with.

[farside22]

Why would you hypocop someone you think is Scum? There's a reason I picked wolf this time: I think he's almost certainly Town, and I don't want to die. A Weak Cop who dies only gives us information if there is also a Townie that died. If no one else dies, we get no real info; if 2 WCs die, it only narrows it down to 2 people. If a WC survives, that's a confirmed innocent, which becomes very strong tomorrow.

My thought process on this. 6 players left. 2 scum.
Today we lynch most assurely scum. That means 1 scum 4 town. Scum kills vt, cop investigates scum.
Town wins with 2 town and 1 scum. GG

[farside22]

That's only if:
1) The Scum kill a VT
2) A WC investigates Scum

1. true enough
2. true enough

Also there is the theory there may not be another weak cop in the game as well. It's all in keeping an open mind.

[farside22]

This I know, but the whole point of the hypocop is that everyone 'pretends' to be a Weak Cop. It gives the Scum

far

too much power if they know if they are actually being investigated or not.

Anyways, it was just one of three things I noted from VRK.

I'm more curious to see why he thought only 3 people would be alive tomorrow.

[farside22]

That's actually something I hadn't thought of - his stated scenario means he cannot be Town and have to decide. If only 3 people are left, 2 people died. That means a WC has died. To avoid the last Scum being obvious, 2 WC must have died. Therefore, farside and wolf both died overnight and were revealed as Weak Cops. This means either VRK or Cirno is Scum.

Now that you bring it to my attention, farside, I find it interesting that his proposed scenario involves me having to decide between him and Cirno, the latter of which I've been rather vocal against.

I'm leaning on VRK at this point based on his last post. Also my meta of Cirno leaves me to lean town. The WIFOM Cirno kills me because I had it in my head too but I go back and forth on the issue.
Sorry if this isn't clear I just see too many different things between cirno, VRK and yourself. I have been going round and round in my head on the possible scum partner. VRK seeming to believe there will only be 3 alive leaves a bad taste in my mouth more. It seems like a bit of inside knowelegde if one of myself or wolf were wc.

[farside22]

I tend to fight more with Cirno when she is town. I'm going back and forth because she is being logical which I noted when she was scum that she was far more logical so it's fence again.

VRK: Why would you ask chnorek to hypoclaim before Cirno considering he would be lynched?

I don't believe chnorek

[farside22]

Sens: Did you notice who I hypoclaimed during the time?

[farside22]

Bah??

[farside22]

Cirno definetly looked scummy. I started to feel very mild suspicion towards Sens with the kill on Sandman and thinking that scum killing someone they feel concerned may be a cop would be a risk they could not take.

I actually liked the idea of no lynch. Since there seems to be a good chance of a wc if he lives past the first night then he confirms the person he checked by being alive. The only thing you have to think about is scum fake claiming.

Also I played this as if I was really a weak cop and what I would do. I thought it might put a target on me.

[farside22]

I wasn't trying to side step to help VRK when I awnsered the question but I did find it odd that you question him when I hypoclaimed someone that I had a case on and obviously found scummy and was the first to hypoclaim.
But I'm glad to have helped the town by stepping in like that and creating a target. I do think in my view after sandman was killed and if VRK died I would have looked more seriously at Sens but cirno really was making my scumdar going back and forth.