Open 215 - Gurgi EC8 - Game Show Mafia, Over

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Vote: yawetag

for not changing the game title to reflect the fact that the topic has been unlocked.

and since that doesn't count:

vote: chnorek

for thinking that farside is talking about an ongoing game.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Effective immediately, SensFan replaces The1fifi.

Cirno's mom is batting 0.500

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

to get this game going you guys have any ideas how shoud we play this setup?

Sure. Do you?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

???

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm thinking of a combination of sens and farside's suggestions.

As of now, I don't see an issue with hypercop-ing the setup. I'm trying to think if there's a way the scum can take advantage of hypercop claims, but I don't see one.

I think we have to have some mechanism for finger pointing, and the hypercop suggestion seems to fit the bill nicely. Since the cop will end up dead if he investigates a scum, hypercop claims will allow the cop to essentially tell us whether his investigation is guilty or innocent.

Now that I've written that out, at least one hypercop claim is going to be "false". If everyone hypercops a different person tonight, the Mafia can just kill one of the "hypercops" in hopes of hitting a real cop. If the Mafia hit a real cop with the night kill, and the person the cop hyper claimed was Town, it's going to look like the cop died due to hitting scum, making us think that the Town player is actually Mafia.

So this is where farside's suggestion comes in. I think we need to be really careful about discussion, and really try to get a handle on who we think is likely to be innocent and guilty. We can then get a good idea of who should be the focus of investigations.

Tomorrow is LyLo if we mislynch today, so I think any cops almost have to investigate tonight. It also means that we have to be super extra careful about believing a Cop claim tomorrow.

What size was the game that you played with yos, farside?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

chnorek, how do you feel about hypercop claims?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

idea behind investigating most town people works best in my opinion.
cops claim at some point (close to end of day) and say who they are going to investigate during night.

If we are unlucky we will loose only cop we had.
If we have more than one cop it will probably benefit us.


Im curious about Crino, Sandman and mavsfan opinion.

I don't agree with this. Why should the cops out themselves when we have a mechanism to keep the cops hidden?

All

players at the end of the day should hyper claim who they'd investigate if they were a cop. That keeps any cops hidden so that the Mafia don't have any extra information.

I also think that any cops should all investigate tonight. The only possible way we lose the game today is if we have 3 cops (which is only a 12.5% chance) and we have to then mislynch Town, and 2 of our 3 cops investigate Mafia. That would make it 5/2 tonight after the lynch, the cops would both die, making it 3/2, and the Mafia kill would make it 2/2, which is a Mafia win. But that doesn't take into account the fact that the Mafia might target one of the cops targeting a Mafia so their kill would be wasted in that case.

More likely than not we're going to have either one or two cops based on the weighting for the setup. And since tonight is more likely than not the only night we're going to get, I think that any cops should investigate tonight to maximize our information tomorrow. Some of it could very well be WIFOM'd to death, as farside pointed out, but I think that the trade off of extra information is worth it. It's not like all we have to go off of is the Night kills and claims. We have all the day talk available for analysis as well.

I don't think there's any way we can "break" the setup, but we can take steps to ensure we get max info out of it.

Does anyone see anything wrong with everyone hyper copping tonight and any cops actually going ahead and investigating their declared targets?

We should also come up with a logical way to decide who hypercops who, because we don't want two people "investigating" the same person. My instinct is that the most pro-town player should choose first and then declare who is next and so on.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.

Right. That would prevent any other variables from cropping up. If only 1 person "investigates" player X, then we know that anything that happens to that 1 person is either because of his ''investigation" or because of Mafia actions. If two or 3 people "investigate" player X, then you start getting too many scenarios cropping up as to why things happened the way they did once Day 2 rolls around.

I'm having some thought here that actually having

more

people investigate player X could be good for us by giving us more info, although I need to think through it.

Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.

I agree that cops should investigate town. We're in LyLo tomorrow if all we do is mislynch Town today. If cops investigate scum we're that much closer to a loss.

But you then run into the issue of believing any cop claims tomorrow. Someone who comes out on Day 2 and says "I'm a cop, and yesterday I hypo'd X as stated and I"m still here, so X must be Town" - you can't trust that right off the bat. It could easily be scum fake claiming it.

The game's not going to be as simple as "follow the cop". We're going to have to temper any claims with a lot of careful analysis.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

Interesting.

But how do you tell if the one cop died because he investigated Mafia or because he was killed by the Mafia as the kill choice?

If the cop claims and declares who he's going to target, the Mafia can engineer the night to make it look any way they want.

With 2 cops the Mafia can only engineer 1 of the investigations. The other one would be clear.

None of that still prevents the Mafia from fake-claiming.

I think cops outright claiming introduces WIFOM. hypocopping doesn't introduce the WIFOM as much, but its drawback is that we can't be sure of results.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

farside, can you better explain 70 please?

mavsfan, anything to add to the discussion besides the NHL?

Cirno, why do you feel that you don't need to participate in the strategy discussion?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Farside, post 76: We probably should do two rounds of "investigation claims" then. For instance, "I will investigate wolf tonight, but if he gets lynched then I'll investigate sensfan".

Theoretically, this shouldn't be an issue because we won't set up hypocop investigations until the last day or two, and if we're still fighting over who we're going to lynch at that point we're in trouble.

The person who would investigate the person most likely to be lynched may be better off doubling up on the first person, who is going to be our most Townie person.

Ok reading on further:

I actually like the idea of No Lynching today. If we have 3 cops, No Lynch today prevents the case where we auto-lose if two of the 3 cops hit Mafia.

The way the game is set up is that we have an 87.5% chance of having at least one cop. We have a 50% chance of having 2 or 3 cops. And the only way one death is WIFOM is if the death is a cop death. A Townie death is automatically attributable to Mafia.

I'm all for a No Lynch with hypoclaims at the end of the day, scummiest players (bottom 3) go last. Towniest player picks first and chooses next player of the remaining 4.

But first, we need to decide who is scummiest.

mavsfan, do you plan on actually playing the game, or sitting around lurking your way through?

unvote; FoS: mavsfan

Assume the FoS here is equivalent to a vote, since we're No Lynching today.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Can someone explain the No Lynch to me a bit more? I realize it's a huge long shot, but after the kill, if 3 Cops hit Scum, that's it. Game over before we get a lynch off. I'm not sure why we're taking that risk.

No lynch today with 3 cops, Night 1 looks like this:

T T T C C C M M

Worst case scenario, 2 of the 3 cops investigate Mafia and die, and the Mafia hit either a Townie or the other cop gives us the following for Day 2:

T T T M M

or

T T C M M

which is not an auto-lose. We won't have 3 cops all investigating Mafia because everyone will have one person to investigate. We're not doubling up.

Cirno, why would you not be OK with a strategy that gives Town a large chance for information while completely eliminating the possibility for losing the game on Night 1?

FoS: Cirno

Isn't this popcorn:

Towniest player picks first and chooses next player of the remaining 4.

?

I was saying that we figure out who is the Towniest player, and also figure out who are the 3 scummiest. The Towniest hypoclaims first, and then picks person number 2, with the stipulation that he can't pick from the bottom 3. Keep going like this until only the bottom 3 are left, then they get to pick. Sorry if that didn't come across clearly.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@Mod: I shouldn't have a vote on anyone, I unvoted here.

Busy at work, will try to post something intelligent in the next 24 hours.

Hey cirno, how about you answer my question please.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

EBWOP (to add bold tags for the Mod):

@Mod: I shouldn't have a vote on anyone, I unvoted here.

Busy at work, will try to post something intelligent in the next 24 hours.

Hey cirno, how about you answer my question please.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'll investigate wolf tonight. Farside next please.


wolf: Do you view cirno as pro-Town? why?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm responding as I read, so sorry if it's been covered. And I haven't been posting because I've been sick and had company over this past weekend:

@ farside: My two scummiest right now are Cirno and mavsfan.

There a few reasons I don't like a no lynch. There is the obvious reason that it guarantees all scum live to the next day and that there will be scum on day 3, which in turn guarantee at least 2 night kills.

How have you not run the numbers yet and realized that, if we lynch today, there is no such thing as a Day 3?

Vote: No Lynch

Although according to the deadline rules we don't really need to vote at all, since no one will be lynched if we don't have a majority.

I see a lot of bickering between Sens and Cirno.

I'm not getting great vibes from Cirno for the simple fact that she hasn't bothered to run the numbers on when a possible loss could occur, and initially was not going to participate in the discussion of the best way to play the game within the confines of the setup, yet is now in a huge huff that we want to No Lynch. Both of these are anti-Town. I don't know whether they're necessarily scummy or not, but considering that I hyperfocused in my last game I'm rather gun shy about doing it again.

mavsfan has been next to useless in a game in which the Town can ill-afford to waste debate time scumhunting. We don't have a Day 3, which makes everyone speaking all the more important.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

But she's not a Noob Sens, she's an alt. Or did you forget what you spent most of the last page arguing about

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I could be wrong, but I believe its a reference to the Virginia Tech Massacre.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Not sure why you think Sens is coming off scummy there Vel.

Why do you think I thought Sens was coming off scummy? Not at all what I intended. I was merely commenting on the bickering as that's what's taken up the majority of the last two pages.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I think that we have to assume that mavsfan, as a Town player, followed the list. Not that he was all that helpful yesterday, and I did list him as a possible scum, but the lurky behavior could be attributed to a Cop trying to fly under the radar. Now we need to go back and look at Chnorek and find his buddy.

On a different tack: how does everyone feel about any other "Cops" claiming today? Can we take the chance that any other Cops revealing now will give us more information than keeping quiet until tomorrow?

Everyone take a look at the breakdown for tomorrow. Night 2, we'll have T T T T M. Theoretically, with no other Cops, we have T T T M for Day 3. That would be a normal game LyLo situation.

If we have one more Cop in the game, we have T T T C M for Night 2. Day 3 we'll either have T T C M, with either an innocent on one of the remaining Town, or the scum will kill the cop's investigation. Or, we could wind up with T T M for Day 3, with the Mafia killing a Townie, and the Cop dying because he investigated the other Maifa.

If we have 2 more Cops in the game, we have T T C C M for Night 2. Only one of the Cops could die from investigating a Mafia (assuming we popcorn again). That would leave T C M for Day 3 worst case scenario.

I think our best bet is to do another popcorn. And we should do as much scum hunting today as possible. I'm not going to vote for Chnorek until we're ready to end the day.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@Sens and Farside: What specifically made you think that Wolf is Town? I believe that on Day 1 both of you explicitly stated that Wolf was Town. I would like to hear your reasoning please. Be as specific as possible.

More later.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Massclaim no. As wolf says that's just going to sow confusion. Popcorn definitely. And why are we in a pinch? We're going to lynch chnorek today, that guarantees us a day 3. And no one is talking about ending the day now.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@VRK:You want all the cops to claim, but not a massclaim? If all the cops claim, then everyone else must be assumed to be vanilla townies or scum, right? What is the difference?

Where did I say I want all the cops to claim?

@Farside: Don't you understand my talking points by now? Naturally, I'm going to say "I'm expecting information".

I don't know what farside is looking for, but how about you paint me a picture? How do YOU envision us undergoing a massclaim giving us more information? What information do you expect to get?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@farside, wolf, & Cirno:

how do you feel about Sensfan?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

On a different tack: how does everyone feel about any other "Cops" claiming today?

Please explain to me how ^ is the same as this:

@VRK:

You want all the cops to claim

, but not a massclaim? If all the cops claim, then everyone else must be assumed to be vanilla townies or scum, right? What is the difference?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

If you are not suggesting having the cops claim, then what are you suggesting?

I wanted to know what others thought of the idea. I was not advocating the idea. In fact, in the same post you pulled this from, I explicitly stated later on that I think we should popcorn again:

On a different tack: how does everyone feel about any other "Cops" claiming today? Can we take the chance that any other Cops revealing now will give us more information than keeping quiet until tomorrow?

...SNIP...

I think our best bet is to do another popcorn.

And we should do as much scum hunting today as possible. I'm not going to vote for Chnorek until we're ready to end the day.

So I'm not suggesting anything. I'm gathering information.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Mod: V/LA until Monday. I'm going to try to continue to post as much as possible.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm back! I am going to hypoclaim Sensfan.

So far we have the following hypoclaims:

[mrow]"Cop"[col]Investigates farside[col]Cirno wolf[col]VRK SensFan[col]wolf VRK[col]SensFan chnorek[col]??? Cirno[col]???

I'd be interested in hearing chnorek's hypoclaim before we go any further, TBH. And I really agree with farside's sentiment expressed in 249. I don't know if I think that Sens' helpfulness during Day 1 is honest or not. And he was a bit quick from what I saw to want to move the day along on Day 1. If Cirno, Sens and I are alive tomorrow in LyLo I'm going to have a hell of a time deciding who to vote for.

Those are the only two out of the remaining players I'd consider as scum right now. I think farside is Town, as well as wolf. Both based on their forthright play so far. But I've not actually played a game with any of the latter 3 players, and only 1 game with Cirno. Her playstyle this game is very different from the last game, although that could be due to the mechanics of this game.

So chnorek, would you choose Cirno or farside to investigate, and why?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Real quick before I go to work:

I don't believe the claim at all. It's far too late in the day and there's no way, if chnorek is a cop. that mav would have died last night. If mav was the only death last night the claim is possible. But we had a VT flip last night. The only way a VT flips at night is due to a scum kill. That means that mav HAD to have investigated scum. The only other explanation is that the Mafia get one kill for each scum member.

Mod: Do the scum get a kill for each living member, or are the rules for Mafia night kills normal in this game?

That will clear up any possible doubts.

@Cirno: how has Sensfan suddenly dropped on your radar? I've only done a quick skim so far since I posted yesterday, but you had a pretty comprehensive scum list. What caused Sens to drop down suddenly?

I'm not ready to end the day yet guys. Please relax a bit with the votes.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

To answer the 3 people left scenario:

It doesn't matter who the 4th is. If it's either me, sens, cirno, and wolf -or- me, sens, cirno, and farside has no bearing. I stated in that post that wolf and farside are almost assuredly town, so either one of them being alive will not affect my personal issues deciding between sens or cirno. I'm ignoring the possibility of there being more discussion for tomorrow. It was just something I saw and mentioned it. Broadcast = bad, yes, so sorry for that.

farside, how can you be so adamant against Cirno for most of the day today but now you're suddenly seeing Town-Cirno in meta reads?

@Sens: not sure if you're scum or not. It may be possible and it's something I've had in my head since you started organizing the town on Day 1. It seemed too helpful. I know that's walking the Too Townie line, but that's what I have. I'm much more convinced of a Cirno pairing with Chnorek. There's just enough doubt that I wanted to express it for completeness sake. It's what prompted me to ask farside, wolf, and Cirno what they thought of you.

And in your stated scenario with two people dying tonight, that will mean that we either lose a WC and a Townie, or we lose 2 WCs. Either way, one of the 2 WCs investigated scum. The one VT, 1 WC is a no brainer, auto win for town. It should be a straigtforward matter tomorrow, based on interactions from today, to decide in the case of 2 WCs dying.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I tend to fight more with Cirno when she is town. I'm going back and forth because she is being logical which I noted when she was scum that she was far more logical so it's fence again.

VRK: Why would you ask chnorek to hypoclaim before Cirno considering he would be lynched?

I don't believe chnorek

He's 99.9% guaranteed scum (unless mavsfan didn't investigate who he was supposed to) and I was curious what the "known" scum would say. BUT, Cirno basically overrode my question with her post 264. Looks a lot to me like a buddy trying to keep her scum partner from saying anything he shouldn't. Another point against her. Now she wants to go ahead and hurry up and end the day.

I'm really trying hard not to tunnel on Cirno considering what happened last game we were in together (and I've started to realize that I have a very bad habit of tunneling in general), but her behavior is not pro-Town. My only other possible suspect right now is SensFan. farside's understanding about how badly wolf asking for a no lynch would look, and not blasting him for it, then mentioning it to everyone, says Town to me. Wolf's entire behavior this game has been Town. That only leaves Sens and Cirno.

@Cirno: Please don't forget to answer my question in 267.

@Chnorek: why do you think farside would turn up Town?

@Sens: you didn't answer farside's point 1) in post 255.



[mrow]"Cop"[col]Investigates farside[col]Cirno wolf[col]VRK SensFan[col]wolf VRK[col]SensFan Cirno[col]farside

chnorek

[col]

???

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

1) I see cirno as scummy and hypoclaimed him as a target

why is it scummy to VRK and not me?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm explaining why its scummy in general.

kk

I didn't that she was also

hypocopping someone she views as fairly suspicious.

Huh?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

kk.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@VRK: I'm sorry for ruining your clever plan. Chnorek surely wouldn't have come to the same conclusion after reading the big table in the center of your post with an eye-catching yellow heading. I regret doing such a scummy thing as stating the obvious.

:drip, drip: sarcasm :drip, drip:

As for your question, though SensFan does seem more town lately, it is really that my opinion of others has changed and he looks better relatively. Not by much though.

Great! Who's gone down then? You know, in case you die tonight we should have your suspicions for tomorrow.


See what I did there

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Unfortunately, I was being vague intentionally. You don't need my suspicions. Make due with your own.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Is it bad I'm starting to think its plausible that Cirno is a better lynch than chronek?

Yes it's bad. Chnorek is all but confirmed scum. I'd rather not take any chances, however glaringly obvious it may seem.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

If Cirno's not going to answer any more questions do we need to keep the day going? I'm happy to end it now as I don't see how we're going to get anything else out of anyone.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I mean, I'll be the first to admit I wasn't fantastic in this one, and as of D2 I was probably most people's #2 choice for a lynch. But had VRK not happened to be a Cop, you wouldn't even have had that chance; I would have secured an easy mislynch of Cirno, and the game would be over.

Exactly. No one would have considered you as a possible target considering how horrible Cirno's play was.

GG Town, I think we got really really lucky with both WCs hitting scum with investigations and the scum not cross-killing them to confuse things.

I was hoping that I would live through the night if Sens was not scum, because it was either him or Cirno, since I had an innocent on Wolf and farside's play was very pro-Town.

Sens the only thing that gave me any inclination you might be scum was your too-helpful attitude. And that's not anything someone could use as "proof" of scuminess. There's no way Town would have won if I wasn't a 2nd cop. She was pretty much an auto-lynch for today.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I think that I pretty much would have said what she did, as that's what popped into my head when I saw you point a finger at me. I started typing it up and after reading the rest of the thread deleted it since she had already answered it in the same way.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

That means absolutely nothing. At any time, she could claim WC and clear him automatically. If she died and flipped WC, he would also be cleared automatically.

So no. farside had just as much chance as being a WC as anyone else.

In fact, that sounds like a great strategy for getting reactions out of people.