Open 215 - Gurgi EC8 - Game Show Mafia, Over

[SensFan]

You could almost say that Cirno's mom has got it goin' on

Anyways, I'll

Vote: VRK

for old time's sake.

[SensFan]

to get this game going you guys have any ideas how shoud we play this setup?

Sure. Do you?

im wondering how helpful can be suicidal cops.

There's two schools of thought here, and I'm not sure which would be best.

Either the Cops don't investigate every night, only when quite sure they can clear someone.
Or else the Cops claim (either hypocop or otherwise) who they will target the following night during every day.

If anyone else has any other paths that I haven't thought of, be my guest to mention them.

[SensFan]

Technically it's the Kanata Senators, but yes. Why do you ask?

[SensFan]

Wait a second. It's absolutely crucial that we hypercop or massclaim. 8 people alive, once we lynch that's down to seven. After a NK that drops to 6. If 2 Cops investigate Mafia, that's game.

Am I missing something?

[SensFan]

That's exactly what I said. If two Cops investigate Mafia, that's game over. It's down to 4 players left, 2 of which are scum.

[SensFan]

Wolf, do you plan on removing the reidiculous vote you placed on me, given I did indeed understand the set-up and it was you who didn't read what I said?

[SensFan]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.
Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.


chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

If two players are both Cops and target the same player, then we lose if that person is Scum.

[SensFan]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

The obvious benefit is that if 1 person investigates VRK, and VRK is town, then Scum can kill them to frame VRK. If 2 people investigate VRK, VRK can't be framed (but can just be killed).

I don't think it's quite worth it.

[SensFan]

If we're going to hypocop, I'd prefer it be done popcorn. Is that acceptable?

[SensFan]

Can someone explain the No Lynch to me a bit more? I realize it's a huge long shot, but after the kill, if 3 Cops hit Scum, that's it. Game over before we get a lynch off. I'm not sure why we're taking that risk.

[SensFan]

Oh, right. Knew I was missing something. Thanks.

[SensFan]

I did understand that. I don't like the bottom 3 thing. Just full popcorn, in my opinion.

[SensFan]

I'm not sure there's time for much more discussion - it'll probably take 4-5 days at least to get through a popcorn hypocop with this many people.

I'll 'officially'

Pseudovote: Wolf

as the first to claim. Then he can pick the person he thinks most likely to be Town to claim next, and so on.

[SensFan]

8 people, but we need them to come on one at a time. If the order happens to come in with conflicting timezones, it could (theoretically) take 23 hours per person, even if everyone checks everyday.

[SensFan]

Ideally, ASAP. If you want to wait a bit more, go ahead, but it you don't particularily object, I think its best we get this moving to make sure we have time to round up everyone.

[SensFan]

Targetting farside.

VRK's next.

[SensFan]

[mrow]'Cop'[col]Target[col]Result wolf[col]Cirno[col]TBD Sens[col]Farside[col]TBD VRK[col]wolf[col]TBD Farside[col]VRK[col]TBD Sandman[col]Sens[col]TBD Chronek[col]X[col]TBD X[col]X[col]TBD X[col]X[col]TBD
People left to claim: Cirno, Mavsfan
People left to check: Chronek, Mavsfan, Sandman

[SensFan]

[mrow]'Cop'[col]Target[col]Result wolf[col]Cirno[col]TBD Sens[col]Farside[col]TBD VRK[col]wolf[col]TBD Farside[col]VRK[col]TBD Sandman[col]Sens[col]TBD Chronek[col]Sandman[col]TBD Cirno[col]Mavsfan[col]TBD Mavsfan[col]Chronek[col]TBD

I went ahead and filled in the last two rows, since Cirno has to investigate Mavsfan or else Mavsfan will be left investigating himself, which is impossible.

[SensFan]

I am strongly against a lynch today, since I think any chance of losing tonight is unacceptable. The only way I would think a lynch makes sense is if we massclaimed and there was only 1 Cop. But not only is it very likely we have multiples, but the Scum might also claim Cop. So we'll almost certainly have a chance of losing tonight if we lynch. Therefore, I'd rather not risk the game that we can blindly lynch correctly.

Vote: No Lynch

[SensFan]

The deadline's in two days anyways. I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and voting NL.

[SensFan]

He's the person I was most comfortable assuming was pro-Town, other than myself.

Questions for Cirno I expect answers to:
Assuming a random lynch today (no claim), what are the odds we lose tonight?
Are you willing to lynch a claimed Weak Cop today?
Assuming that Scum A claimed a target before ScumB was picked as a target, how likely do you think it is that ScumA chose to claim ScumB to 'investigate'?
Why did you pick to investigate who you did?

[SensFan]

I need hardly mention that I expect no one else to comment on or discuss the questions until she has answered. I will be willing, of course, to explain the reasoning behind them after they have been answered.

[SensFan]

Why did you feel comfortable assuming he was pro-town?

I don't feel comfortable assuming he's pro-Town. We had to pick SOMEONE that, in our opinion, was most likely to be pro-Town. Other than myself, wolf looked rather pro-Town, and already had some popular support. As I trust you can tell, my biggest priority was getting the process moving as soon as possible.

I don't feel like doing math.

This is bad. You shouldn't be advocating a path that involves a possible N1 loss if you don't even (apparently) have a ballpark figure for how likely that is, let alone exact numbers.

I am perfectly willing to lynch a claimed cop.

That's rather silly, probably stupid, but at least supports your idea of lynching.

I'm not going to bother with speculation.

Should we also not bother speculating who are and are not Scum?

I didn't get to pick anyone to investigate, as you should know considering you were the one who assigned me my target.

Good answer. I would have lynched you on the spot had you fabricated a reason.

Now, the reasoning behind those questions?

Done.

[SensFan]

So, I just checked that link.
It links to a postgame post in a game in which you didn't play. It was also an Open set-up that had no Cop.

What the hell?

[SensFan]

You absolutely did not play in that game. I just read the whole fucking thread.

[SensFan]

...is anyone going to bother telling who she's claiming to be, so I can tell why I was linked to that game in response to asking if she would lynched a claimed WC?

[SensFan]

The only one I can think of that would be at all relevant is if she turns out to be the complete idiot that wanted to lynch the claimed Doc in an open set-up. And that proves nothing, other than said idiocy.

[SensFan]

Sensfan, I already explained why I linked it. Please calm down and use the little scroll wheel on your mouse.

You can't link me to a game in which I have no way of knowing who you were (or indeed if you played in the game) as an explanation.

I'm going to work on the assumption from here on out that you're the idiot that wanted to lynch KMD. If I'm mistaken, I'll leave it up to you (and only you) to correct me.

[SensFan]

Can I ask you what your opinion is of Farside and myself?

Sorry, missed that this was directed at me.

Farside:
Seems to be acting rather logically, and what I have come to expect of farside. Playing quite strongly to the Town meta I have on her. Staying plenty active and making sense when discussing theory. Leaning Town on her right now.

Cirno:
Basically the opposite of farside: not making much sense at all from a logic/theory perspective. Without any form of a meta to base anything off of, I'm leaning that this is scum-fueled. Almost certainly VI-ish. Leaning Scum.

[SensFan]

What is it that doesn't make sense? Now is as good a time as any to ask for clarification.

Wanting a non-zero chance of losing tonight. Especially since you (apparently) don't have a clue just how high that chance is.

[SensFan]

Also, there is a list of around 15 games that I've played on my wiki page. If you want meta, you can certainly find it.

Are you trying to be thick? Just did a quick check of 3 of those Newb Games, and I don't think any of NG210/NG912/NG865/OG203 share a single player, at a quick glance.

You can't just point to a random game and claim it gives me a meta of you, without telling me (supposedly) who you claim to be in those games.

[SensFan]

I scanned the playerlist of those games. It's possible I missed a player in common. NG201 is a total crapshot, though.

[SensFan]

I see a lot of bickering between Sens and Cirno.

I admit, I lol'd at reading this.

Check Cirno's join date, VRK. You of all people should know how cheerful and sweet I am when playing with newer players to MS

[SensFan]

The alt I assume she is is still fairly new.

Besides, I like to be so warm and fuzzy to all people here

[SensFan]

I could be wrong, but I believe its a reference to the Virginia Tech Massacre.

[SensFan]

@Sens and Farside: What specifically made you think that Wolf is Town? I believe that on Day 1 both of you explicitly stated that Wolf was Town. I would like to hear your reasoning please. Be as specific as possible.

This is not true, for me at least. What I said (and Cirno was the one who put words in my mouth) was that if I had to pick someone I thought was most likely to be Town, it would be wolf. I don't remember exactly why - I can check back later - but I think it was just a general gut feeling. Don't forget, the context was for someone to start the popcorn claim, and I was trying to get us started as soon as possible, its not like I did a full PBPA and decided wolf was most likely pro-Town.

[SensFan]

This is not true, for me at least. What I said (and Cirno was the one who put words in my mouth)

Please show me where I put any words into your mouth, sir.

He's the person I was most comfortable assuming was pro-Town, other than myself.

Cirno comes back with

Why did you feel comfortable assuming he was pro-town?

When exactly did you stop beating your wife, Sir?

[SensFan]

Is it really any surprise to anyone that Cirno is tunelling on me?

[SensFan]

I'll hypoclaim Wolf.

Cirno, it's obvious you're tunnelling on me; I don't need to spell it out for anyone else.

[SensFan]

VRK is making absolutely no sense here.

If he is Town:
1) He thinks I am possibly/likely Scum, and yet is choosing to hypoclaim me
2) He's broadcasting to the world to leave Cirno/Me alive tonight, regardless of who the last Scum is
3) He's still talking to chronek like there's any chance at all chronek isn't Scum, and won't be lynched today

[SensFan]

Why would you hypocop someone you think is Scum? There's a reason I picked wolf this time: I think he's almost certainly Town, and I don't want to die. A Weak Cop who dies only gives us information if there is also a Townie that died. If no one else dies, we get no real info; if 2 WCs die, it only narrows it down to 2 people. If a WC survives, that's a confirmed innocent, which becomes very strong tomorrow.

[SensFan]

That's only if:
1) The Scum kill a VT
2) A WC investigates Scum

[SensFan]

This I know, but the whole point of the hypocop is that everyone 'pretends' to be a Weak Cop. It gives the Scum

far

too much power if they know if they are actually being investigated or not.

Anyways, it was just one of three things I noted from VRK.

[SensFan]

That's actually something I hadn't thought of - his stated scenario means he cannot be Town and have to decide. If only 3 people are left, 2 people died. That means a WC has died. To avoid the last Scum being obvious, 2 WC must have died. Therefore, farside and wolf both died overnight and were revealed as Weak Cops. This means either VRK or Cirno is Scum.

Now that you bring it to my attention, farside, I find it interesting that his proposed scenario involves me having to decide between him and Cirno, the latter of which I've been rather vocal against.

[SensFan]

chronek; who is your buddy?

[SensFan]

@Sens: you didn't answer farside's point 1) in post 255.

Why would you hypocop someone you think is Scum? There's a reason I picked wolf this time: I think he's almost certainly Town, and I don't want to die. A Weak Cop who dies only gives us information if there is also a Townie that died. If no one else dies, we get no real info; if 2 WCs die, it only narrows it down to 2 people. If a WC survives, that's a confirmed innocent, which becomes very strong tomorrow.

[SensFan]

I'm explaining why its scummy in general. I didn't that she was also hypocopping someone she views as fairly suspicious.

[SensFan]

*didn't realize

Sorry.

[SensFan]

Not particularily, I admit. I didn't make the chart this time.

[SensFan]

Is it bad I'm starting to think its plausible that Cirno is a better lynch than chronek?

[SensFan]

Vote: chronek

L-1

[SensFan]

Goddamnit.

Vote: SensFan

[SensFan]

There's a decent monologue I posted in the QT last night. Basically, it came down to risk vs reward. If I kill someone other than VRK, and VRK isn't a WC, Cirno is a gimme mislynch and I win. I chose a farside kill for the off-chance that you were also a WC.

[SensFan]

Not at all; I think it was pretty terrible. It only worked because of the incredible luck involved. Town gave themselves no margin for error at all.

[SensFan]

I mean, I'll be the first to admit I wasn't fantastic in this one, and as of D2 I was probably most people's #2 choice for a lynch. But had VRK not happened to be a Cop, you wouldn't even have had that chance; I would have secured an easy mislynch of Cirno, and the game would be over.

[SensFan]

I didn't have any WC tells on you, but I knew I had to kill you. If you happened to be a WC, there was no way in hell I wanted Cirno cleared.

[SensFan]

That means absolutely nothing. At any time, she could claim WC and clear him automatically. If she died and flipped WC, he would also be cleared automatically.

So no. farside had just as much chance as being a WC as anyone else.

[SensFan]

As much as I hate admitting it, I do think better play won this game. wolf and farside in particular played extremely well, and it made it very difficult to plan kills that left enough possible mislynches.

GG Town.

[SensFan]

That reminds me; I was extremely frustrated when farside came to your defense about hypocopping me before you could answer. I was desperately trying to get a read on if you were a Weak Cop, and her response allowed to you not have to give the reactions I was digging for.

[SensFan]

That means absolutely nothing. At any time, she could claim WC and clear him automatically. If she died and flipped WC, he would also be cleared automatically.

So no. farside had just as much chance as being a WC as anyone else.

In fact, that sounds like a great strategy for getting reactions out of people.

Mhmm.

The key is that its a 2-Scum set-up, and chronek was outed as Scum by D2. That means that if anyone claims an Innocent result, the target is confirmed Town. It doesn't matter how hard to believe farside's claim might have been, if she claims to be a WC, either she is one (and you're Town) or she's Scum (and therefore you're Town). Since we hypocopped N1, if she ever died you'd be revealed as Town, too, if she were a WC.

I'd be very interested in playing this sort of set-up again. I think it really does reward good play.

[SensFan]

I do think in my view after sandman was killed and if VRK died I would have looked more seriously at Sens

That was basically it. I knew it was a risk leaving VRK alive, but didn't want the WIFOM of killing Sand and VRK.