Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[Shanba]

Ok. I'll do a more detailed read-through later. At the moment, I'd really like to hear exactally why RichardGHP joined the ksun wagon in post 604. The timing looks odd to me; with the deadline coming up, Izzy and Va join the wagon, pushing it into the #1 wagon and the likely deadline lynch. At this point, now that it looks like ksun-scum is about to get lynched, Richard joins the wagon giving no reason at all, and he never explaned it for the entire rest of the day. This looks like a bussing move to me, based on the timing. It could also be a simple self-preservaton vote, which would be null, but I don't think so, considering he only joined the wagon AFTER it appeared ksun was about to be lynched, not when they were tied at 6.

Richard, could you explain why you voted ksun here?

What do you think ksun coming up scum says about Richard's alignment, Yos?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Why are you wishing for anti-town things to happen, Yos?

:eyebrow: How is lynching Richard anti-town? Do you really think he's likely town here, Izzy?

Yes.

[Anon]

Back from losing my internets, seems I didnt miss much. Still need a deep reread trying to understand why korts and soras were killed but...

This.

Interesting facts

mipe - PaltryExcuse, VasudeVad, ksun482, sorasagoof, RichardGHP, FeFiFoFum (L-5)
RichardGHP- scotmany12, Mipe, Yosarian2, Quagmire, korts (L-6)
ksun482- Shanba, dahill1, The Fonz, inHimshallibe, iamausername (L-6)

...I think this is an extremely important votecount, before I voted ksun and the wagon that lynched him grew inmediately.

Some interesting points:

- Im pretty sure there one busser in the ksun482 wagon, which is bad news because that means we prob have one comptetent scumbag to hunt in the mix. (Shanba, dahill1, The Fonz, inHimshallibe, iamausername).

- The rest of scumbags are dispersed in the counterwagons, probably not voting together. Specially in the mipe wagon that was dismantled after deadline extension:

mipe - PaltryExcuse, Anon, VasudeVad, Korts, ksun482, sorasagoof, RichardGHP, inHimshallibe (L-3)

- Since there wasnt a really solid case against ksun, I think some scumbags were stuck in the mipe wagon since they voted him early. That is, one or two of (PaltryExcuse, VasudeVad, ksun482, sorasagoof, RichardGHP, FeFiFoFum). Ksun is already dead scum so we have prob one more scum to hunt in this list.

I still want to lynch PaltryExcuse. All his day 1 before I attack him is scummy as hell. I mean, look at the security he has to vote mipe for these reasons:

mipe - Played bandwagon-y and scummy, and participated more before he was targetted and then lost all interest in playing afterwards. His attempt to scumhunt against Richard seems foolhardy, and a bit town. However, his early play still convinces me to keep my vote where it is.

too.weak.stance is not logical with him being so sure about mipe being scum. Gogogogo scumlynch.

Vote: PaltryExcuse.

[Yosarian2]

What do you think ksun coming up scum says about Richard's alignment, Yos?

I don't see how it says anything about his alignment, specifically. Why?

[Yosarian2]

Yos is definitely scummy. His post here feels like it's grasping, and I disliked how he handled D1.

What do you mean "grasping"? I went back, re-read my main suspect on day 1 with the new info of now knowing that ksun is scum, to see if the way he acted cleared him (I had a vauge memory that Richard had voted ksun at one point, and wanted to look at the details), but rather then clear Richard, the way he voted for him and the way he acted looked more like a bus then anything else. Do you disagree?

[The Fonz]

Yos is clearly tunnelling, or faking tunnelling. I don't think his 'looks like a bus' argument is particularly compelling, since if you're the second wagon, self-preservation is always sufficient to make you want the leading one as far ahead of your own as possible. He's also ignoring something he usually picks up as town- being the main counterwagon to a scum lynch always makes you at least somewhat more likely to be town. That said, instinctively, this does not feel like Yosscum. Specifically, his forlorn cavalry charge to lynch Richard feels like the sort of thing town Yos does.

As for nightkill wifom, I do think the following:

A) I don't think the Korts kill was the work of a scum Quag. After all, most of the heat in the Quag-Korts exchange came from Quag's direction, and Korts only really started attacking Quag later in what looks like quite an instinctive countervote. I think the most plausible explanations are (A) Protect FFFF, etc and B) Frame Quag. C) Hunt for power is possible, since he was one, though I don't recall any obvious crumbs- then again, i wasn't on the lookout for 'em.

B) Sorasgoof is most likely the work of a pie disciple, SK trying to look like a vig, or rival scumteam attempting a crosskill.

I'm a lot more comfortable with Izzy now- her actions around the lynch really do feel like she preferred a mipe lynch to a ksun lynch, and genuinely considers richard townish.

Anon's first post today feels like the sort of thing I do a lot to open a day as town, so I'm fairly comfortable with him as well.

Now to go do my own VC mining and see if i can come up with a top susp.

[The Fonz]

I think I want to lynch within this group today: Vasude, Fefi, Paltry, inHim, IAAUN and possibily <Shea Replacement.>

My read on Shanba is a little muddled right now. He certainly started having a great impact on the game, and his wagon analysis at the time looks very good. But I can't entirely ignore the fact that it would, if it succeeded, derail the ksun wagon which HE STARTED, and which I thought looked like distancing rather than a sincere attempt to get a lynch when I entered. I think I need more time here.

I'm also really hoping mipe starts contributing- since i clearly don't think he's that likely scum, it's a bit pointless trying to 'pressure' him, as that will look obviously hollow. At least, unless he gets so antitown he starts pressing on my policy lynch nerve.

[Yosarian2]

He's also ignoring something he usually picks up as town- being the main counterwagon to a scum lynch always makes you at least somewhat more likely to be town.

I used to assume that, that if there were two wagons on day 1 and if one of them was on scum, the other wagon was probably on town. That assumption went horribly, horribly wrong last time I made it (weren't you in that game, Fonz?) so I no longer make it.

[RichardGHP]

Mod: Thank you for that.

Well, with flavour like "cut to pieces", I think our second killing faction is probably an SK (or a second scumteam [unlikely due to small playerlist]). If we have a vig my guess would be that he's even-night.

[The Fonz]

Yos: Are you referring to Ye Olde Tymes? That's the last game I was in with you, although I wouldn't say anything went horribly wrong there, what with us never mislynching and all.

[Shanba]

He's also ignoring something he usually picks up as town- being the main counterwagon to a scum lynch always makes you at least somewhat more likely to be town.

This was what I was trying to get at with the question I just asked yos, but there are a couple of factors that are complicating the situation in my mind at the minute.

The first is the presence of the mipewagon. While it was dying, it was still a significant presence at the time of the lynch. If Rickyghp is also scum, wouldn't it have made sense for the scum to have pushed mipe as the counterwagon to the ksun wagon instead of ricky? This makes me think that Ricky is even more likely town than normal.

Secondly, there was very little late movement in the wagons. The only movement there was was me off ksun and onto Ricky and zoraster onto ksun. In a twenty player game, that's almost nothing. While bussing is possible (and even fairly likely given the way ksun played on day 1) surely there must have been some scum who were not on the wagon - and what were they doing? Looking at the players who were not on the ksun wagon - tsq is inactive and probably needs replacement, Yos2 was pushing hard, mipe didn't post that whole time and neither did paltry or FFFF. Scot dropped his previously high posting rate about a week before deadline an basically stopped posting at all. So basically, everyone who was on the counterwagons dropped off the face of the planet at the crucial point.

I think it's likely there's a significant number of scum in that group. The disparity between the wagons of the two players was not so great that a couple of switches wouldn't have saved ksun (either through consolidation of the mipe/richard wagons into one wagon or through swaps off the ksun wagon); hence it's likely that some percentage of the scum missed that opportunity. People like FeFiFoFum were always posting very little, but people like scotmany and paltry excuse dropped their posting significantly at a significant point in the game, greatly hampering our ability to read them.

Paltry accused me of being scum for moving off mipe on to ksun, and then attacked the ksun wagon generally. Yet this "I find his wagon to be a mixture of policy / deadline lynching" is giving me a gut townread.

I need more time to think this over. These are some initial thoughts.

[Quagmire]

Damn, I was totally convinced on Korts.

I'll have to reread and gather my thoughts.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Are you referring to Ye Olde Tymes? That's the last game I was in with you, although I wouldn't say anything went horribly wrong there, what with us never mislynching and all.

No, sorry. My mistake, you weren't in Mafia With the Quickness.

viewtopic.php?t=13108

Anyway, suffice to say that after that game, I don't think I'm going to use the "The two big wagons of the day were on X and Y, and X flipped scum, so Y must be town" argument anymore; I tried to use it there, it was wrong, both main bandwagons of day 1 were on scum (until I replaced in and screwed it up at the last second ) and I no longer trust that argument.

[Yosarian2]

The first is the presence of the mipewagon. While it was dying, it was still a significant presence at the time of the lynch. If Rickyghp is also scum, wouldn't it have made sense for the scum to have pushed mipe as the counterwagon to the ksun wagon instead of ricky?

It was clear mipe wasn't going to be lynched by that point; there were too many people defending mipe, and attacking people for voting mipe.

It's also worth noting that one of the people who was pushing the mipe wagon up until the point when it was clearly doomed was Richardg.

Secondly, there was very little late movement in the wagons. The only movement there was was me off ksun and onto Ricky and zoraster onto ksun. In a twenty player game, that's almost nothing. While bussing is possible (and even fairly likely given the way ksun played on day 1) surely there must have been some scum who were not on the wagon - and what were they doing? Looking at the players who were not on the ksun wagon - tsq is inactive and probably needs replacement, Yos2 was pushing hard, mipe didn't post that whole time and neither did paltry or FFFF. Scot dropped his previously high posting rate about a week before deadline an basically stopped posting at all. So basically, everyone who was on the counterwagons dropped off the face of the planet at the crucial point.

The thing is, on my reading of the day, I see almost no one who really looks like they were pushing the Richardg wagon as a counterwagon to the ksun wagon. In fact, almost everyone on the Richard wagon was already on it when the ksun wagon got stated. I'm really not sure why you're calling the Richardg wagon a counterwagon; by any reasonable defintion of the word, it really wasn't.

In fact, the only person who really fits the "someone who may pushed have pushed the Richardg wagon after the ksun wagon really took off, possibly in order to get him lynched instead of ksun" would be you. And, honestly, if Richardg does flip town, you would go way up in my list of suspects. However, at the moment, my best guess is that Richardg and ksun are both scum, which makes your vote jump null.

mipe came really, really close to a lynch at one point. He was by far the biggest wagon is mod post 563, on page 23, and still had steam on page 24. The ksun and Richard wagons really both grew based in large part on people unhappy with the mipe wagon. By mod post 596, both wagons had grown, but mipe was still the largest wagon.

It was right after this point that Izzy and Va pushed the ksun wagon over the top (Richard followed soon afterwards, leaving the mipe wagon). After that point, ksun was 3 votes ahead for the rest of the day.

So, I think the scum were primarily pushing the mipe wagon. They were pushing it for most of the day, I think. Note that ksun was one of the people doing this, and I think most of his buddies were on the mipe wagon too. Look at the people on the mipe wagon at this point; along with ksun, there's richard, paltryexcuse, and FeFiFo.

So, no, I don't think that Richardg is at all cleared by the way the wagons went down yesterday. I think the scum weren't pushing either the Richardg or the ksun wagon, although there's always the chance for a bus of course; I think most of the scum were pushing the mipe wagon.

Especally of note, look at PaltryExcuse's post 620. He attacks Shanba for leaving the mipe wagon for the ksun wagon, saying you were just "jumping from one lurker to the next". Also, if you read that post, he seems especally sensitive to suggestions from you that there are scum on the mipe wagon. I think they're all there.

Anyway, reading Paltry in iso, I think he's probably the best suspect right now. Along with otherwise scummy behavior, he's got the strongest link to ksun, with his post in 620. And he never moved his vote off of the mipe wagon.

Vote:PaltryExcuse

Likely scumbuddies: FeFiFi, RichardG.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Given the nature of the two kills last night raising the possibility of a SK being amongst us... does this affect anyone's read of mipe?

[inHimshallibe]

scotmany12- springlullaby (L-10)
Springlullaby- DizzyIzzyB13 (L-10)
dahill1- Thestatusquo (L-10)
Richard Massive- theopor_COD (L-10)

Korts

- Quagmire (L-10)
RichardGHP- scotmany12, Mipe (L-9)

ksun482

- Shanba, dahill1 (L-9)

sorasagoof

- iamausername (L-10)
Paltry Excuse- Anon (L-10)
mipe - PaltryExcuse, VasudeVad,

Korts

,

ksun482

,

sorasagoof

, RichardGHP, inHimshallibe, FeFiFoFum (L-3)

dahill1- Thestatusquo (L-10)
mipe - PaltryExcuse,

ksun482

,

sorasagoof

, FeFiFoFum (L-7)
RichardGHP- scotmany12, Mipe, Yosarian2, Quagmire,

korts

, Shanba (L-5)

ksun482

- dahill1, The Fonz, inHimshallibe, iamausername, Anon, RichardGHP, DizzyIzzyB13, VasudeVad, Zoraster (L-2)

[RichardGHP]

Not really; I think mipescum is a more likely prospect than mipeSK.

[inHimshallibe]

Someone accidentally doing something wrong is NOT scumhunting.

There seems to be an overall misunderstanding of what scumhunting is in this game. Also, Ksun, original observations please.

+town points for the shea-slot.

Well, scumhunting is good, because is they accidentally do something wrong, we know who the scum is. So Richard?

This kinda seems like ksun just wanted something to write, so he put an obvious statement (albeit incorrect as TSQ pointed out). At least write something to make us think you're not blatantly piggybacking.

I could vote ksun right now, but I wanna hear from Izzy still. And DickGHP

+town points for dahill. -town points as he didn't vote. Wash.

^Yeahhe ^{does look scummy}, and anti-town ^peopleare bad but dahill? ^That'sobvious.

Unvote Vote: Dahill

[/sup]

+town points for dahill. Not a partner with ksun. SK still possible with the Day 1 weirdness.

I'll pick back up after work.

[Yosarian2]

Given the nature of the two kills last night raising the possibility of a SK being amongst us... does this affect anyone's read of mipe?

Neah. Mipe looks very town-ish to me. Neither mipe-scum or mipe-SK appear at all likely to me.

[Yosarian2]

Not really; I think mipescum is a more likely prospect than mipeSK.

Why do you think mipe is scum, Richard?

You've still never explained this, and I and other have asked you multiple times now. The only thing you said about him is the post where you voted him, called him "lazy", and said "if you're town you're not doing a good job of it." Can you explain why you think he's scum, instead of just "lazy town" like you seemed to imply earlier?

[PaltryExcuse]

I realize I seem to be under some pressure now, and I'll post tomorrow after re-reading. Life is making things difficult (I've already replaced out of another game).

[dahill1]

Initially throughout the game Paltry didn't really catch my attention as being that scummy, but I think that with this recent lynch and a read in his ISO brings up new info. Like his consistent null-reads on ksun even though he voted for mipe for virtually the same behavior. Also I noticed that literally the one time he mentions FeFiFoFum is only in defense of him when he asks Korts why he singled Fx4 out. That being said I'd like to lynch FeFiFoFum as I think that'd be an all-around beneficial lynch.

@InHim: Wishy-washiness isn't scummy.

[inHimshallibe]

@InHim: Wishy-washiness isn't scummy.

Not what I meant when I said "Wash." btw.

[dahill1]

Okay..

Forgot to

vote FeFiFoFum

[Quagmire]

You know, I really can't get over Yosarian with the obvious tunneling issues (as Fonz pointed out earlier, to which Yos didn't respond to) and the pushing of the 'easy-hard' case I outlined in day one.

Vasuveda has conveniently fallen off the face of the earth too since losing pressure d1, and combine that with a gut scum read.

Bandwagon analysis on day two is usually stupid.

Also, people who are town include: Fonz, Izzy, mipe.