Left 4 Dead Mafia - Day 6?

[Pomegranate]

I can not stress enough how BADLY this game needs a wagon going right now. People need to start voting dram or thatguy now, or give some very good reasons as to why they are not voting.

We all saw good and well what stalling does to a game, it leads to massive clusterfucks and deadline no lynches. That isnt happening twice. Start something

If this is how you feel, why don't you attempt to start a BW with your own vote and voice? If you feel that something needs to be done, why don't you spur it?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Mix of being on the awful early DN wagon,

It wasn't an awful wagon. It achieved exactly what it was started to do.

and being one of the people to stick on the jmj wagon yesterday, yet did not get back on it today.

Mmm, I would like an exmplanation of that from Amished.

He is far more concerned with defending himself then pushing a case.

Defensiveness is not a scumtell.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

I can not stress enough how BADLY this game needs a wagon going right now. People need to start voting dram or thatguy now, or give some very good reasons as to why they are not voting.

We all saw good and well what stalling does to a game, it leads to massive clusterfucks and deadline no lynches. That isnt happening twice. Start something

Don't misattribute the deadline no lynch to stalling. The deadline no lynch was caused by aq viable wagon being derealied by certain people flipping over to start a new wagon at a point that was too late for the new wagon to gain sufficient traction for a lynch. Don't pin this on people who aren't you, because you're the only person alive who was primarily responsible for the aforementioned no lynch.

Why do you feel people need to vote for dramonic or thatguy now? I find it interesting that you single these two "wagons" out, considering they do not have wagons. It can't be that you want to push discussion along by starting a wagon on anybody, because then you would have included Amished and Starbuck, one who has 2 vote sna thus the most in the game so far and one who has an equal number of votes to the two you singled out. If it is because you believe that dramonic and thatguy are scum, instead of just telling people they need to wagon those people, you should be trying to persuade them WHY they should be voting for these people.

Even so, why have you gone off an Amished lynch? You were for it yesterday, even when it was too late to really get an Amished wagon started. What's changed? The night phase didn't do him any favours, since it's clear that whichever of the NKs weas made by scum (or both, since I guess we can't rule out the slight possibility based on the flavour) benefitted him and the MS site meta is currently to ignore such kills because of WIFOM, meaning in the current climate, it is easily possible that scum could kill one or both and expect to get away with it. Nothing he has done today has really changed much. Yet... you've mostly ignored him, which is curious considering you were willing to help derail yesterday's possible lynch in order to push for him at the last second.

Blah. I'm not happy with your play today at all.

vote: Furry

[Furry]

Why do you feel people need to vote for dramonic or thatguy now? I find it interesting that you single these two "wagons" out, considering they do not have wagons. It can't be that you want to push discussion along by starting a wagon on anybody, because then you would have included Amished and Starbuck, one who has 2 vote sna thus the most in the game so far and one who has an equal number of votes to the two you singled out. If it is because you believe that dramonic and thatguy are scum, instead of just telling people they need to wagon those people, you should be trying to persuade them WHY they should be voting for these people.

They are some of the only people getting pressure, so yeah they are technically wagons at this point. I dont want an Amish or SB lynch, so im not saying wagon them. I have laid out reasoning to vote dram and thatguy multiple times, if you want me to go quote myself I gladly will.

Even so, why have you gone off an Amished lynch? You were for it yesterday, even when it was too late to really get an Amished wagon started. What's changed? The night phase didn't do him any favours, since it's clear that whichever of the NKs weas made by scum (or both, since I guess we can't rule out the slight possibility based on the flavour) benefitted him and the MS site meta is currently to ignore such kills because of WIFOM, meaning in the current climate, it is easily possible that scum could kill one or both and expect to get away with it. Nothing he has done today has really changed much. Yet... you've mostly ignored him, which is curious considering you were willing to help derail yesterday's possible lynch in order to push for him at the last second.

Amish lynch was in large part an anti-jmj wagon. Upon examination of it and bob wagon, it was more of a disagreement over the jmj wagon that I was even on bob to start, while I could slightly argue Amish-scum. Thats why im not back on it today. Glork was obviously town, I dont think many if any people would have had a good reason to keep him around as scum. Socrates I dont know why anyone made that kill.

Also ive suddenly realized Charlie is town, who gets to join the ranks of DN, Starbuck and jmj as "dont get lynched".

[Furry]

Mix of being on the awful early DN wagon,

It wasn't an awful wagon. It achieved exactly what it was started to do.

Which was? It was started on a really stupid tell as far as I am concerned.

and being one of the people to stick on the jmj wagon yesterday, yet did not get back on it today.

Mmm, I would like an exmplanation of that from Amished.

That was also DP, thatguy and bob. Lets not forget them.

He is far more concerned with defending himself then pushing a case.

Defensiveness is not a scumtell.

I did not say defensiveness is a scumtell. I actually am a big fan of lynch players who claim overdefensive is a scumtell.

What is scummy here is that he is doing absolutely nothing to scumhunt. Even if you are getting attacked by someone its fairly simple to push a wagon at the same time.

Now conspiracy theory makes me want to get a dram lynch before a thatguy lynch, as there are people whos alignments become much more obvious from that flip then tg one.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Why do you feel people need to vote for dramonic or thatguy now? I find it interesting that you single these two "wagons" out, considering they do not have wagons. It can't be that you want to push discussion along by starting a wagon on anybody, because then you would have included Amished and Starbuck, one who has 2 vote sna thus the most in the game so far and one who has an equal number of votes to the two you singled out. If it is because you believe that dramonic and thatguy are scum, instead of just telling people they need to wagon those people, you should be trying to persuade them WHY they should be voting for these people.

They are some of the only people getting pressure, so yeah they are technically wagons at this point. I dont want an Amish or SB lynch, so im not saying wagon them. I have laid out reasoning to vote dram and thatguy multiple times, if you want me to go quote myself I gladly will.

And yet they gather no votes. I find it interesting how you failed to make your dramonic case until after you'd voted for him and that when asked to make your case against thatguy (which you've done once), it was horrifically weak and entirely unconvincing.You're not making compelling, convincing cases. If you believe they sare scum, try harder.

Even so, why have you gone off an Amished lynch? You were for it yesterday, even when it was too late to really get an Amished wagon started. What's changed? The night phase didn't do him any favours, since it's clear that whichever of the NKs weas made by scum (or both, since I guess we can't rule out the slight possibility based on the flavour) benefitted him and the MS site meta is currently to ignore such kills because of WIFOM, meaning in the current climate, it is easily possible that scum could kill one or both and expect to get away with it. Nothing he has done today has really changed much. Yet... you've mostly ignored him, which is curious considering you were willing to help derail yesterday's possible lynch in order to push for him at the last second.

Amish lynch was in large part an anti-jmj wagon. Upon examination of it and bob wagon, it was more of a disagreement over the jmj wagon that I was even on bob to start, while I could slightly argue Amish-scum. Thats why im not back on it today. Glork was obviously town, I dont think many if any people would have had a good reason to keep him around as scum. Socrates I dont know why anyone made that kill.

Socrates is easy. There are a number of Socrates posts that indicate he may have had a power role that he turned out to have, which a scum team could pick up on in order to decide he is a good kill. On the other hand, he was the first person to jump to the Amished wagon that prevented a lynch yesterday, which I assume would have attracted a Vig's attention attention. I know if I had vig powers, I'd have probably killed Socrates last night.

As for your statements on the Amished wagon...

Deadline is tomorrow not today

unvote
vote almightybob

Last ditch not-jmj wagon, and a decent one either way

Nine and a half hours later (or, 16 hours and 10 minutes before deadline):

I will also submit that if Bob is town, JMJ is definitely town. JMJ as scum would have voted for Bob, no questions asked. Instead, he went after someone with virtually no heat on him -- Charlie. This tells me that JMJ is following his suspicions, not trying to merely save his own ass.

Oh wow, look at that. Another reason jmj is town, he isnt just trying to save himself. I think bob-scum would have still resulted in a bob vote from him too.

*continues to beat this into the stubborn folks*

I am completely willing to vote Amish over jmj. I am also willing to vote just about every other player in the game then jmj though. Actually heck with it.

unvote
Vote Amished

You're very into going with votes over expressed opinions. Your expressed opinion at that point in the game was "anyone but jmj". This is pretty much a townie opinion, since lynch is better than no lynch and you stated that you believed jmj is town. Pro-town opinions is good.

However... then, with just over SIXTEEN HOURS to go until the deadline, you participated in the derailment of the Bob wagon in order to hop onto the failed Amished wagon. You did this with 16 hours to go until thee deadline, to a wagon that lacked the strength and time to work its way from wagon to lynch, based on play in the game.

And now you're backing off from that decision. I don't like this. At all.

Also ive suddenly realized Charlie is town, who gets to join the ranks of DN, Starbuck and jmj as "dont get lynched".

And yet again you don't even explain why you hold an opinion.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Mix of being on the awful early DN wagon,

It wasn't an awful wagon. It achieved exactly what it was started to do.

Which was? It was started on a really stupid tell as far as I am concerned.

I made the initial vote in order to get DeathNote to explain his request for the sample PM, which he eventually did. (Although, I was off that wagon at that point because I went v/la and didn't want to leave a pressure vote unattended in case of quick lynch). I can't speak for anyone else who followed me, but they made it easier to get the answer I wanted.

and being one of the people to stick on the jmj wagon yesterday, yet did not get back on it today.

Mmm, I would like an exmplanation of that from Amished.

That was also DP, thatguy and bob. Lets not forget them.

Also true, but you only mentioned Amished in teh post I was responding to.

He is far more concerned with defending himself then pushing a case.

Defensiveness is not a scumtell.

I did not say defensiveness is a scumtell. I actually am a big fan of lynch players who claim overdefensive is a scumtell.

What is scummy here is that he is doing absolutely nothing to scumhunt. Even if you are getting attacked by someone its fairly simple to push a wagon at the same time.

That's frankly bullshit. When someone is being attacked, the natural inclination is to move to a defensive mindset, to interpreted everything as if it were an attack. Under those circumstance, it can be incredibly difficult to scum hunt, because all your effort goes towards defending yourself. Just because it might be easy for you does not mean it is the same for everybody else, and is an example of an "everybody reacts the same way" approach that is bad for town in this game and bad for the game of mafia in general.

Now conspiracy theory makes me want to get a dram lynch before a thatguy lynch, as there are people whos alignments become much more obvious from that flip then tg one.

I find your tendency to make pronouncements without explanation or backing irritating, as the statement itself is less content than the reasoning behind it, which you refuse to reveal.

[Furry]

And yet they gather no votes. I find it interesting how you failed to make your dramonic case until after you'd voted for him and that when asked to make your case against thatguy (which you've done once), it was horrifically weak and entirely unconvincing.You're not making compelling, convincing cases. If you believe they sare scum, try harder.

Well half the game is refusing to contribute anything at this point so that is making things harder to start with. Dram and thatguy also have contributed next to nothing in this game so there isnt going to be too much on them simply due to lack of things to pull from. I still think the dram lynch is a very strong one, and I wouldnt do anything to detract from the thatguy one if it suddenly was the popular opinion.

You're very into going with votes over expressed opinions. Your expressed opinion at that point in the game was "anyone but jmj". This is pretty much a townie opinion, since lynch is better than no lynch and you stated that you believed jmj is town. Pro-town opinions is good.

However... then, with just over SIXTEEN HOURS to go until the deadline, you participated in the derailment of the Bob wagon in order to hop onto the failed Amished wagon. You did this with 16 hours to go until thee deadline, to a wagon that lacked the strength and time to work its way from wagon to lynch, based on play in the game.

It was the wrong wagon. It just took me that long to realize it was the wrong one. I started to go through to write up some comparison on bob and amish to show why we should be lynching bob, but in the process of doing so I convinced myself otherwise. I really do not like going against my reads, and will fight tooth and nail to get the wagon over to where I think it should be.

The wagon almost went through, when you add on Starbuck posting and not jumping, and dram having posts around that time (another reason to lynch!) and not jumping, it shows it was a possible wagon.

Also ive suddenly realized Charlie is town, who gets to join the ranks of DN, Starbuck and jmj as "dont get lynched".

And yet again you don't even explain why you hold an opinion.

jmj... is very obviously town from what happened yesterday. DN from early day one stuff, starbuck is harder to explain but its a predicessor/gut thing, then charlie im not going to elaborate on.

Also for the saying "I was dram over thatguy" lynch, im not going to elaborate much on it because if I lay out the reasons as to why I want this order, the reads I hope to gain off it are going to be tainted due to scum knowing more or less what I am trying to accomplish.

[Starbuck]

Mods: Can we can prods on those who haven't shown up since the start of day?

JMJ is one, but I know there are a few others too.

[almightybob]

Right, sorry this took longer than expected.
Thoughts on D2 so far:

dram - why did you vote for Izzy in 709 when you were expressing suspicion of Starbuck? The vote against Izzy seems to just come from nowhere.

I'm interested in a name claim as I believe it would be more helpful to town than to scum.

[...]

almightybob, what do you think?

Why me specifically?
Anyway, considering that we now know there is a theme link between Socrates' role and his name - Keith being a Jack of All Trades fits the character of Keith in L4D2, who seems capable of anything according to Ellis - I would be more reluctant to have a mass nameclaim now. It could lead a scum with theme knowledge to any other PRs we may have.
As Amished later points out, you seem to realise this, so I'm not sure why you would still want a nameclaim.


SPS - you're talking out your ass here. If you're just going to blindly trust Glork because he's Town, I take it you now think I'm Town because he did (in complete opposition to your view on D1)?
As far as I can see, not once have you addressed Glork's actual case on Amished. You've not said which parts you agree with, which parts you disagree with. You didn't say anything of your own about why Amished is likely to be scum other than some nice night-kill WIFOM in your vote and a few subsequent posts.
Yesterday you said you found Glork's arguments unconvincing, and that you thought Socrates' were better. Glork's argument hasn't changed since he flipped. If it was unconvincing then, it should still be unconvincing now.
In fact, you don't even seem to care about the merits or otherwise of Glork's case. You admit here that it's not his case that made you suspect Amished, but purely the fact that it was Glork making it.

That's weak scumhunting on your part.

We need flavor experts in here since what the item does fails to make sense to me.

Redirect was one of the possibilities I mentioned when we were discussing it. If you are being attacked by the horde, the Boomer Bile will redirect them away from you. So yes, it does make some sense theory-wise.


Charlie - in post 769 you manage to talk for ages without actually saying much.

Your statement that bv is telling the truth either way doesn't hold up. Sure, scum are told what the item does. But if scum-bv got the Boomer Bile and it was a Cop investigation, they could easily lie and say it was something else, so that they don't have to provide solid evidence which can later be used to expose their lies.
In your "nameclaims won't out Town PRs" example scenario, you list 3 different Town PRs that Keith could be. Even if a nameclaim doesn't tell the scum

exactly

what PR a player has, it would still lead them to the likely PRs to target for their kills.
And again, your idea that the 8 core survivors are a more trustworthy claim makes no sense. In a theory game, if a nameclaim makes it obvious who is Town and who is scum, the game setup is broken. They should be largely unrelated. I think it's likely that at least one of the 8 Survivors is a fakeclaim.


Not really seeing the fake-buddying dramonic is accusing Starbuck of.

Grab: Medkit

Also, I am rereading from the start of day 2, I will post comments on what has happened so far afterwards.

GODDAMNIT >.<

See,

this

is the kind of bullshit that makes me think jmj is scum. He does absolutely nothing, no scumhunting of any form. But he conveniently pops up for

his

first

ONLY post of D2

to go in for the Medkit within half an hour of it becoming available. Come

on

. This is shocking active lurking.


Izzy-Furry debate is interesting. I will need to reread it a couple of times to see any emerging reads.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS - you're talking out your ass here. If you're just going to blindly trust Glork because he's Town, I take it you now think I'm Town because he did (in complete opposition to your view on D1)?

I trust Glrok because he's a good scumhunter and now I don't have to worry about his alignment. I still suspect you, although less so. It's clear to me why Glrok didn't take my case seriously and I don't agree with his assessment.

As far as I can see, not once have you addressed Glork's actual case on Amished. You've not said which parts you agree with, which parts you disagree with. You didn't say anything of your own about why Amished is likely to be scum other than some nice night-kill WIFOM in your vote and a few subsequent posts.
Yesterday you said you found Glork's arguments unconvincing, and that you thought Socrates' were better. Glork's argument hasn't changed since he flipped. If it was unconvincing then, it should still be unconvincing now.
In fact, you don't even seem to care about the merits or otherwise of Glork's case. You admit here that it's not his case that made you suspect Amished, but purely the fact that it was Glork making it.

Glrok's case on Amished was very subjective, about the "language and timing of the post".

Amished's play just doesn't sit well with me.

Gut reads and the like are by their very nature not convincing. Now that I don't have to worry about Glrok's alignment, I'm quite willing to take him at face value.

Also, nightkill WIFOM, really? The problem with NK analysis is that's hard to reverse- engineer the scum's motivations, not WIFOM. I don't believe I've seen a single instance of the latter in all the games I've played.

[Charlie]

Why me specifically?

Because I know that you know both games (online mafia & L4D2) well. This means that you-town would provide valuable input and you-scum would presumably provide misdirection.

almightybob, it doesn't make sense that scum would fake claim what the item does. With a little logical thinking anyone can roughly tell what the item does; what is more believable than others. For example, you once mentioned that one of the probable effect of the boomer bile is a roleblock, since it blinds. This scenario is far fetched if compared to a more likely effect of a redirect.

In your "nameclaims won't out Town PRs" example scenario, you list 3 different Town PRs that Keith could be. Even if a nameclaim doesn't tell the scum exactly what PR a player has, it would still lead them to the likely PRs to target for their kills.

Did you even think about the possibility of Keith being a plain Survivor when you typed that out?

I think it's likely that at least one of the 8 Survivors is a fakeclaim.

Well, I am of the opinion that AT MOST one survivor is a fakeclaim. If all 8 claimed, we can discuss stuff, match behaviour with claim, rule out probable Survivors and what is left is likely scum (in addition to those who did not claim at all)

Yeah it is kinda speculation on my part. Still, I'm sticking to it.
So almightybob does not seem too interested in a nameclaim, Furry is opposed to it and bv310 is okay with it.

Anyway, did anyone else notice thatguy00 is behaving like "if there is an item, I'm gonna grab it and I could not care less about contributing to the discussion" lately?

And another thing: Whoever is still talking stuff along the lines of "maybe scum destroying items is a night action" please please stop. The correct assumption is scum destroy items AS SOON AS they manage to grab it. I stand by this 100%.

[Pomegranate]

Weekly V/LA.

[Amished]

I just skimmed up to the current thing and I followed pretty much everything Dizzy said until this part

Socrates is easy.

There are a number of Socrates posts that indicate he may have had a power role that he turned out to have

, which a scum team could pick up on in order to decide he is a good kill. On the other hand, he was the first person to jump to the Amished wagon that prevented a lynch yesterday, which I assume would have attracted a Vig's attention attention. I know if I had vig powers,

I'd have probably killed Socrates last night.

Ok, this rubs be wrong for two reasons: you'd vig somebody that you thought hinted at a power role; and isn't the Soc kill getting mobbed/mauled or something? That doesn't sound like a vig at all. Kill flavor is one of the easiest things to keep from a video game to a MS game. Hopefully I can catch up more.

[Amished]

Keith is a good buddy of Ellis. They may be masons.
Keith is described as one who took a lot of abuse and punishment. He may be a tough person to kill. He may be a survivor with a disadvantage, having been weakened with so much past abuse.
Keith made it through a lot of crap (like horrific accidents, drowning, etc.) but learnt to survive through it. He may be a jack of all trades.

See what I did there? Scum can only vaguely guess at a role with name claims. Anyway, with Glork silenced, I think I'm the only one who is keen on a name claim. Everyone else does not seem interested. Can we please discuss this?

Two thirds of your examples give scum either a mason (why the hell do you want to out them?) or a JOAT (same question). There's no logical reason to push for a name claim.

and being one of the people to stick on the jmj wagon yesterday, yet did not get back on it today.

Mmm, I would like an exmplanation of that from Amished.

jmj is easily in my top three, but with me staying alive/no shot flavor or anything like that I believe that the pistols were destroyed. I've still got a town read on Furry; Starbuck would've killed somebody else, bv got the bile and would've used one of his items if he got the guns I believe (and it's provable since if he dies we'll; which leaves thatguy who I had a strong scum read from yesterday as well.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

I just skimmed up to the current thing and I followed pretty much everything Dizzy said until this part

Socrates is easy.

There are a number of Socrates posts that indicate he may have had a power role that he turned out to have

, which a scum team could pick up on in order to decide he is a good kill. On the other hand, he was the first person to jump to the Amished wagon that prevented a lynch yesterday, which I assume would have attracted a Vig's attention attention. I know if I had vig powers,

I'd have probably killed Socrates last night.

Ok, this rubs be wrong for two reasons: you'd vig somebody that you thought hinted at a power role; and isn't the Soc kill getting mobbed/mauled or something? That doesn't sound like a vig at all. Kill flavor is one of the easiest things to keep from a video game to a MS game. Hopefully I can catch up more.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Based on what was known by the point we no lynched yesterday, I absolutely would have vigged Socrates. He was playing scummily, prevented us from lynching yesterday, and the available information with regards the set-up lead me to conclude that any possible hints of his having a power role were simply a set-up for a future fake-claim.

Scum, however, have access to more knowledge of the set-up on account of knowing the strength of the scum team and consideration of what would be necessary to balance the game out. Thus, they could read the same things and come to an alternate, and ultimately correct, interpretation of his posting.

[Amished]

Still, you don't vig somebody that you claim to have had a PR read on. If necessary you attack them and force them to claim if you don't believe them. Then if they're telling the truth you get PR information.

On a related note, why are/were you looking for PR tells at all in the first place?

That's never something that I associate with a town alignment. It just doesn't make sense.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

I wasn't looking. They are simply there.

[dramonic]

unvote
vote: Starbuck

mixing em up females x_x

answers your question AMB?

[The AI Director]

The Third Vote Count of Day Two

Amished (2): Steam-Powered Shovel, Pomegranate
thatguy00 (1): Amished
Starbuck (1): dramonic
dramonic (1): Furry
Furry (1): DizzyIzzyB13

Not voting (11): almightybob, DeathNote, jmj3000, DocPotter, DizzyIzzyB13, bv310,

Ifrinn

, Charlie, Starbuck, Tarhalindur, thatguy00

Still searching for an Ifrinn replacement. I'll get to the prods today sometime. Activity level for D2 has been fucking atrocious.

[The AI Director]

crypto replaces Ifrinn effective immediately.

[crypto]

Unfortunately for everyone involved.

[almightybob]

I still suspect you, although less so.

Gut reads and the like are by their very nature not convincing. Now that I don't have to worry about Glrok's alignment, I'm quite willing to take him at face value.

I trust Glrok because he's a good scumhunter and now I don't have to worry about his alignment.

I have liked bob's posting so far. Not the activity thing (which never hurts, but isn't really a protown tell), but something resonates well with his posts so far. "

Protown by gut

," I suppose.

Now explain why you still suspect me despite Glork's gut, but are using the opposite logic to push a case on Amished.
You're ignoring his gut when it suits you to maintain suspicion on me, but using it as the centrepiece of your suspicion on Amished when that's more convenient.

The problem with NK analysis is that's hard to reverse- engineer the scum's motivations, not WIFOM. I don't believe I've seen a single instance of the latter in all the games I've played.

Here.

almightybob, it doesn't make sense that scum would fake claim what the item does

Eh, it absolutely does.
Scenario: scum-bv gets the Boomer Bile. It acts as a Cop investigation (flavour reason - the Bile turns enemies Purple and they show up clearly on the HUD if they are hit with it). Scum-bv destroys the Bile. Town ask what it does.
Option 1) scum-bv chooses to tell the truth and say "It's a cop investigation", and is thereafter committed to either clearing a Townie each Night, outing scumbuddies, or being discovered for lying.
Option 2) scum-bv chooses to lie and say "It's a redirect", and then is free to never produce evidence of it again.

Did you even think about the possibility of Keith being a plain Survivor when you typed that out?

Two out of the three examples you provided were PRs for Keith. Anyway, I'm not saying a nameclaim would

definitely

lead scum to

every

PR. But it could well help narrow the field.

answers your question AMB?

Ah. Yes, thanks.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I still suspect you, although less so.

Gut reads and the like are by their very nature not convincing. Now that I don't have to worry about Glrok's alignment, I'm quite willing to take him at face value.

I trust Glrok because he's a good scumhunter and now I don't have to worry about his alignment.

I have liked bob's posting so far. Not the activity thing (which never hurts, but isn't really a protown tell), but something resonates well with his posts so far. "

Protown by gut

," I suppose.

Now explain why you still suspect me despite Glork's gut, but are using the opposite logic to push a case on Amished.
You're ignoring his gut when it suits you to maintain suspicion on me, but using it as the centrepiece of your suspicion on Amished when that's more convenient.

1) I don't think his town vibe on you is as strong as his scum vibe on Amished.
2) I'm not entirely sure how accurate his town reads are in comparison to his scum reads. As a player who relies upon gut to a significant extent, I can assure you that they're not perfectly correlated.
3) I'm less suspicious of you now to the extent that I'm not actively pursuing your lynch. I'm not entirely sure how maintaining suspicion on you is supposed to be convenient for me.

The problem with NK analysis is that's hard to reverse- engineer the scum's motivations, not WIFOM. I don't believe I've seen a single instance of the latter in all the games I've played.

Here.

I meant WIFOM being a problem with NK analysis. So an instance of scum killing to frame someone, not an instance of someone being bad at NK analysis.

Did you even think about the possibility of Keith being a plain Survivor when you typed that out?

Two out of the three examples you provided were PRs for Keith. Anyway, I'm not saying a nameclaim would

definitely

lead scum to

every

PR. But it could well help narrow the field.

Agreed.

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

Note to mods: I'm honestly not sure I can handle playing this game at the moment - Mind Screw Mafia 4 is proving FAR more mod-intensive than even I expected, and as such I'm finding it nearly impossible to concentrate on a game I was already behind in.

If this doesn't clear up in a few days, I'll have to request replacement. I'd rather not - I don't like to flake and want to continue playing this game - but I don't know if I can avoid it. (This isn't a replacement request yet, but it is a heads-up that one may be coming in the near future.)

More later tonight or tomorrow, when I get a chance to read through the thread.