Mini 946 The new Zachtown (Game Over!)

[Zachrulez]

1st vote count of day 2:

Jeromus- 3 (DeathRowKitty, Vi, Lacey)

Not voting (JasonT1981, VP Baltar, Maemuki, Col.Cathart, Alexithymia, Jeromus)

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

If I made any mistakes, let me know asap.

DL is May 6th at 1pm CST.

[Lacey]

By well documented, you mean linked, correct? I don't find it suspicious that you're discussing the game setups, so much as your prose - I find it suspicious to be dropping such bombs as "I'm not an idiot".

Yes, linked. Read the games, form your own opinion.

And my comment was not AtE. It was appeal to common sense. Any scum player would know what set up we were playing with from Day 1 due to the size of their scum team. A scum team of 3 or 4 is too big for their to be two teams, as scum would make up 50%+ of the players. A scum team of 1 or 2 suggests multiple scum teams. And no, 1 scum team + serial killer is not, IMO, different from 2 scum teams. A serial killer is a scum team of one person.

It's an appeal to emotion right there, and that's what bothers me

Wait, wait, wait... AtE's bother you? What about:

Because - Last I checked, either the sarcasm tags aren't working, or "Gem" in every single one of its uses in his post justifying his vote on me was used with the heaviest of sarcasm, which offends me. *Cries*

Goddammit, I'm good at emphasising the wrong points in my posts...

Or making excuses for switching your focus.

I'd like to see everyone take positions on folks. I still like jeromus/Alex for scum. I could see Jasper/Maemuki as scum too, but I'd like to hear more from the slot first. Just a note Maemuki, it's tomorrow. Are your thoughts organized yet?

I like DRK's posts so far today. In line with yesterday.

VP Baltar, what are your thoughts? You were probably one of the two top leaders from yesterday along with Vi. But you've gone silent today. Your input would be appreciated.

Jason, can you give us some more substance? You've been lurking a lot, and in general not contributing to the discussion as much as you could. Vi's already accused you of coasting. Can you respond to the accusation and take strong positions on cases today?

Col.Cathart gets a big

FoS

from me for lurking here while active in other threads. (http://www.msutils.net/search.php?poste ... h_forum=-1)

Alexithymia/Haylen has also been very active under the Haylen alt (http://www.msutils.net/search.php?poste ... h_forum=-1), which adds to my growing suspicion of jeromus/Alexithymia.

[Vi]

This wagon's going up just a little quickly...

...and someone hasn't posted yet, which I find very surprising given how much she has been around onsite.

Unvote: jeromus
Vote: Maemuki

(L-4)

[Lacey]

I'd like someone to check my work. But I believe with symmetric two scum teams, it puts us into potential lylo today.

Assumption: 5 town remaining, 2 scum Team A, 2 scum Team B.

Assume we mislynch today, we go into night with 4 town, 2 Scum A, 2 Scum B.

P(two town killed) = 0.41667
P(one town killed) = 0.47222 (includes the chance both scum target the same townie)
P(no town killed) = 0.11111

So there is a 88.888% chance of losing at least one town during the next night.

So a mislynch today sends us into tomorrow with:

3 town, 1 or 2 Scum A, 1 or 2 Scum B (P = 0.47222)
2 town, 2 Scum A, 2 Scum B (P = 0.41667)

The second case is clearly a town loss.
The first case I'm not sure on, based on the rules.

[Vi]

Lacey, there are two problems with what you said.

1) 2-2-2 is not necessarily a Town loss.
If there's only one scum group, then 3-3 IS a Town loss, but etc.

2) Scum don't kill randomly. In fact, they have good reason to shoot each other at this point. 3-2-1 is pretty nice for the 2 group (if only one group hits scum overnight).

[Vi]

Oh right, a third problem.

Most people

can only control the lynch (not the kills). Therefore, the best that

most people

can do is lynch scum... which is what

most people

would be trying to do anyway.

Do you claim to not be one of

most people

?

[VP Baltar]

Time for the Doctor of Truth to come in and set a few things straight.

Fact #1 - Alex continues her lurkingfest even though I'm pretty sure she's been online.

Fact #2 - Maemuki still hasn't answered my simple question of whether or not she read the game even though I'm pretty sure she's been online.

Fact #3 - Oh Hai Col. Cathart, how's the war in lurkerville going. You know, from the one game I played with you when you were town I definitely don't remember you being a non-entity in the thread. In fact, I remember you as quite an active player. What's the dealio?

Fact #4 - DRK's "case" on jeromus doesn't move me in the slightest. Let's look at it closely.

I've already given my opinions on jeromus's post at the start of this post, so just read it there.

You mean the reasoning that you said Vi already stated in the thread before you? How is that your opinion and not just basic repeating of others?

He decides to tell us about how he thinks the vote-hopping going on is interesting....only to finish up by saying that he doesn't find votehopping to be worth commenting on!

This makes no sense in spite of your exclamation point!

But seriously, it doesn't look to me like you're even really reading what he wrote. He said he found it odd, but not really vote worthy or significant enough to focus on. You appear to be trying to get in a semantics war because he used the words "comment on", which is unnecessary at best. Additionally he was defending someone you claimed to have a town read on...so I don't see whatever you think the scum motivation behind this move was. Exclamation points! make! everything! so! much! more! enthusiastic!!!!

We then get another gem from jeromus. There's actual content in this one! Praise the lord! Let's look at the content:

Don't know which post you're linking too here, because the one you provided goes to the start of the game. Little help please.

Yes, he did just vote Alex for being hard to read. Yes, this was while the Cirdua wagon was gaining strength. Yes, this was a convenient way to stay off the Cirdua mislynch wagon. Oh wait, did I assume too much?

Considering how you've painted jeromus as some lost scum who can't find enough druthers to actually post content in the thread, I'd say yes, if that is what you really believe of him, you're assuming far to much.

My basic problem with your entire case is 1) you're just repeating crap from yesterday with no real attention being paid to the flips we just had and 2) your main point (which is repeated several times) is that jeromus is lacking content. Well, whoop dee doo, so are a majority of the players in this game. What makes him different than Alex, Jason, Maemuki/Jasper, Col. Cathart, etc?

Speaking of useless, Jason's first post of the day is scraping new lows of active lurking. Hey, Jason, I don't think I've ever seen you be quite so useless in a game. Are you not having fun this game? Is life too busy? If you don't have time to contribute something worthwhile, why are you sticking around and posting the bare minimum?

DRK is correct that we're likely dealing with two scumgroups - likely either 2:1 or 2:2 - and being so brazen about it screams Town.

I don't see what screams town from stating obvious facts. I'd like you to elaborate on this.



Ok, so for the page of posts, there wasn't a whole lot there to comment on. My general feeling is that the jeromus wagon is mostly poo poo and I'm sort of curious why Vi thought it was vote worthy. Why was that exactly?

Lacey is very much obvtown still and I would appreciate if jeromus quit being reactionary and started scumhunting.

Jason, Maemuki and Alex all look like lurker scum at this point. I can't decide if DRK is scum or just really clueless town. His case looks pretty contrived either way.

Vote: Maemuki

[Vi]

DRK is correct that we're likely dealing with two scumgroups - likely either 2:1 or 2:2 - and being so brazen about it screams Town.

I don't see what screams town from stating obvious facts. I'd like you to elaborate on this.

It seems like the sort of thing a Townie would latch onto first thing. Information, glorious information! and not the speculative kind like Lacey is putting out. Scum try not to act like they know too much, unless they're like Hoopla in PYP2 and try to direct the Town into one avenue of speculation (like what Lacey is doing).
Or if you want another example, take me and Trollblag from F&E. I specifically avoided having anything to do with Masons during the Day throughout the game, never mind that they were kind of Town's best weapon in that game. Troll actually came out D5 and laid out his thoughts and speculations on the Masons at great length, more than everyone else. The Troll comparison is a bit off because he talked about it after the fact but etc.

I'm not getting the obvTown vibes you are from Lacey, but she's not getting lynched Today anyway.

Ok, so for the page of posts, there wasn't a whole lot there to comment on. My general feeling is that the jeromus wagon is mostly poo poo and I'm sort of curious why Vi thought it was vote worthy. Why was that exactly?

I don't think I actually read DRK 289 much. But I hated 292 and thought all of his posts up until then were equally useless, including that goshawful policy vote on Alex D1.

Jason, Maemuki and Alex all look like lurker scum at this point.

Quoting for truth; bandwagons plz

[Lacey]

Oh right, a third problem.

Most people

can only control the lynch (not the kills). Therefore, the best that

most people

can do is lynch scum... which is what

most people

would be trying to do anyway.

Do you claim to not be one of

most people

?

No claims being made. I'm just trying to get a handle on how dire the situation actually is, so I know how careful I ought to be. Cirdua not flipping scum surprised me. I've got a bad record my last few games with being correct on my scum cases, and I'm worried. This is also the first game I've played where I lived to see Day 2, so I'm shaky on my strategy from here on out.

[VP Baltar]

@Lacey - for someone shaky on strategy, you certainly seem confident in your jeromus read. What do you think about me calling the case on him poo poo?

[Lacey]

@Lacey - for someone shaky on strategy, you certainly seem confident in your jeromus read. What do you think about me calling the case on him poo poo?

I think it's still the best one I've seen, barring possibly the jasper/Maimuki slot, but I'm unwilling to commit there until we hear something from Maimuki. Note I'm not voting jeromus for the reasons DRK has outlined, but rather the reasons I outlined yesterday.

[Vi]

I'm not completely up for doing the mass bandwagoning from yesterday, but it's not like Maemuki isn't elsewhere onsite.

[Vi]

EBWOP: "bandwagoning" should be "tubthumping"

[Lacey]

I'm not completely up for doing the mass bandwagoning from yesterday, but it's not like Maemuki isn't elsewhere onsite.

Oh believe me, I know. I'm keeping tabs on lurker activity in other threads. Maemuki currently has the following activity for today, and the last two days:

Thursday - 6
Wednesday - 21
Tuesday - 40
Monday - 42

I'm cutting her some initial slack due to the fact she has to read 13 or so pages from this game. Replacing in can be daunting. But she is beginning to push the limits.

She is definitely more active on the site than our other lurkers.

Col.Cathart
Thursday - None yet
Wednesday - 2
Tuesday - 0
Monday - 4

Alexithymia/Haylen (All activity under the Haylen alt)
Thursday - None yet
Wednesday - 9
Tuesday - 2
Monday - 8

[Lacey]

EBWOP: "bandwagoning" should be "tubthumping"

What does tubthumping mean?

[jeromus]

What does tubthumping mean?

It's where you get knocked down, but you get up again.

[VP Baltar]

I'm cutting her some initial slack due to the fact she has to read 13 or so pages from this game. Replacing in can be daunting. But she is beginning to push the limits.

13 pages should take no more than an hour or two to read even if you're taking notes.

Also, are you saying she had over 40 posts on the site Monday? Which threads were those. If it's true, I'm ready to lynch now.

[Lacey]

I'm cutting her some initial slack due to the fact she has to read 13 or so pages from this game. Replacing in can be daunting. But she is beginning to push the limits.

13 pages should take no more than an hour or two to read even if you're taking notes.

Also, are you saying she had over 40 posts on the site Monday? Which threads were those. If it's true, I'm ready to lynch now.

Here is the evidence:
http://msutils.net/search.php?poster_na ... h_forum=-1

Please double check my counts before using them as evidence. I may be off by a post or so.

[Lacey]

EBWODP: Pages 3 and 4 have the posts for Monday.

[jasonT1981]

catching up now... sorry, been a busy easter week, had family down a lot of the week so far and not had much time for mafia games. just got prodded in my other game also. So its not just this game I am behind in.

[Maemuki]

Ahm, guys? I have a life. Besides, I don't know where to start because the damn Cirdua wagon took pretty much all of D1. There's just too much...meh. :S

Anyway. I'm going to start by Alex's PBPA, 'cause everything else has already been said by others.

Possible buddying of Vi here. Need to keep an eye on this. See how it developes.

I fail to see why. I join many games just so that I can play with some specific players - does the original Zachtown ring a bell?

As for Alex's meta giving you a headache, clearly you've never played with Mastin or Haylen. The self vote(d) and fakeclaimed all the time during the RVS. It worked for them, although one of them never got policy lynched over it Rolling Eyes

It stops being useful after 30 games or so. May I just ask, since we're on D2, what do the reactions for your wagon do now?

In your next post, you mention how Lacey's meta doesn't seem very successful to you. How is this relevant? And will you be treating her differently this game after seeing her games?

Experience is (well, almost) a sign of a decent scumhunter, and in your first months your meta changes in a flash. The last question, I can't answer though.

...If you see what I mean there.

Uhhh...good point. I'm guessing lack of experience here.

<enter discussion about Hayl's meta here>

Vote Jasper.

justwhydidn'tyoudothatfivepostsagoanyway

Don't try and drag me into this little pissing contest of yours. I'm not saying that I am the pinnicle of Scum hunting, I'm just saying that distracting the Town with random conversation about your alt's playstyle is Anti-Town. This is neither the time nor the place to pick a fight that has officially consumed the last page. And before you say that you're not trying to pick a fight, might I remind you of this...

*applause* This guy is obv-to - ohwaithe'sdeadnevermind

I decided I was going to vote for the player i find most scummy, and that is Jasper.

Why did that happen so suddently?

Page 5 ~:

Vi - she...seems pretty town. There's a little voice in the back of my head that says "NO MAE NO" but I'm willing to ignore that for the moment.
VPB - agressive and logical, but I still don't feel any sparks from him. :S Maybe it's just that I skimmed through the RVS pages? Might be. Neutral-townish.
Lacey - she has been pro-town thus far. (Even though I didn't understand the numbers, but others did.) She worries from lylo from page 2, something that scum don't usually do - they don't even know if they'll get there. There's just a problem though - her last post seems a bit like...fence-sitting? *scrolls down* DAMN YOU DRK Neutral-townish.
jeromus - a bit lurkerish. Neutral-scummy.
DRK, (everybody else) - I don't have a read on them yet, so neutral.

[This took so long because I was trying to find more things. As you can see, I failed miserably. Now to reading the second half! It can't be that bad.]

[Lacey]

Ahm, guys? I have a life. Besides, I don't know where to start because the damn Cirdua wagon took pretty much all of D1. There's just too much...meh. :S

Not a valid defense. I would buy that life interfered if it were not for the fact that you've posted an absolutely obscene number of times in the last few days. Try again please.

[Maemuki]

Not a valid defense. I would buy that life interfered if it were not for the fact that you've posted an absolutely obscene number of times in the last few days. Try again please.

Count the lines that the posts have. Then please come back.

[VP Baltar]

Not a valid defense. I would buy that life interfered if it were not for the fact that you've posted an absolutely obscene number of times in the last few days. Try again please.

Count the lines that the posts have. Then please come back.

Counted, still not an excuse. I have a very busy life as well, but I don't think there is any way I could manage to have 40 posts a day on this website. Additionally, I asked you a simple question of whether or not you had read the game yet...not exactly the inquisition.

Very happy with my vote.

[DeathRowKitty]

V/LA Friday, April 9 - Saturday, April 10

Should have time to post tonight. Might have time to post tomorrow morning and/or Saturday night.