Stars Aligned II - Game Over!

[vikingfan]

I wonder if snail even investigated me at all. it'd be easy for scum (particularly cult) to throw out an investigation and hope it sticks. I find it amazing that someone like rewq is so quick to believe him without considering all the facts.

Oh lol.

You've already conceded that you're bloody. What is this about?

What do you mean? I'm bloody because I've been rezzed. I just find it interesting that people are so quick to believe him.

[kunkstar7]

Ani, can you say how many insanities you have and which ones they are?

[VP Baltar]

haha, yer. lynching viking today.

Orders of business to be completed beforehand:

1) Fully updated chart
2) Votecount analysis


Should we designate graverobbers tonight or should we let the bodies linger until tomorrow?

[iLord]

Should we designate graverobbers tonight or should we let the bodies linger until tomorrow?

Letting the bodies linger is good. We probably have 2 Murderer's from among the people we blocked tonight, and we can try and block them again tomorrow night.

[kunkstar7]

Ok here is the chart so far, missing input from Chaco, Magua, DGB, SOG, Hayker, Plum, for N3 actions and insanities. Also waiting on clarification regarding Ani's insanities.

[mrow]Player[col]N0[col]N1[col]N2[col]N3[col]Explanation/Notes[col]Insanities Adel/Hayker[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col]Rezzed by Plum [col]Laundered[col]?[col]VP failed ward/Ani stalked but did not kill/kunkstar(drench) stalk-murder failed[col]1 - due to rez (twitchy) Magua(Amished)[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col]Noise:No [col]?[col]?[col]?[col]?

CSL(Col.Cathart)

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col]Murdered/rezzed [col]-lynched-[col]----[col]Elli stalked-murdered/failed[col]2 dramonic[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No (warded by chaco)[col] Noise:No [col]Noise: No, Commune(Magua)[col]Robbed SlySly, CSL[col]?[col]3 - Aversion to Magua, Twitchy, Sadism DGB[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No (warded by elvis)[col]Noise:yes/Rezzed elvis [col]Noise:Yes (fetish) /Rezzed elvis[col]?[col]Lost action last night, must have gained an insanity.[col]1 from fetish - Twitchy Ellibereth[col]Stalked CSL[col] Murdered CSL [col]Search Forensics kit[col]Robbed Iecerint, Katy[col]Possible Murderer.[col]Four - Taboo(Launder), Twitchy, Sadism, Paranoid

Iecerint

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col] Murdered [col]----[col]----[col]Flipped Investigator.[col]0 iLord[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col] Rezzed Phate [col]Noise:Yes[col]Commune(VP)[col]Results-(Not more insane)[col]1 - Twitchy

Phate

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col] Cult target/Rezzed [col]Cult Kill[col]----[col]Flipped Investigator.[col]1

Sajin

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col] Murdered [col]----[col]----[col]Flipped Investigator.[col]0 Plum/Sarag [col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col]Rezzed Adel/Hayker[col]Noise:Yes(fetish)[col]?[col]Has like 2 posts[col] 1 from fetish

Katy/Seacore

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col] Murdered [col]----[col]----[col]Flipped Investigator.[col] 0 vikingfan[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No [col]Noise:No Ward:no[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col]Rezzed by Unknown[col]Alluded to (Commune?), Bloody[col]2 - Aversion (VP), Twitchy Animorpherv1[col]Stalked Adel/Hayker[col]Robbed grav/Searched Forensics kit [col]Investigate(DGB)[col]Not Bloody on DGB[col] ?[col]3 -Aversion(VP), Avolition, ? kunkstar/Drench[col]Stalked Adel/Hayker[col] Murdered Adel/Hayker [col]Occult books[col]Robbed Katy, Phate[col]Claims Drench went murderer but kunk went back to investigator[col]4 - Taboo(Launder), Twitchy, Sadism, Hallucination Evilsnail[col]Noise:No Ward:No [col]Noise:No Ward:No [col]Noise:No Ward:No[col]Investigate(vikingfan)[col]Bloody Results on vikingfan[col]0 rewq/faraday[col]Noise:No Ward:No[col] Forensic kit [col]Checked Ani (not bloody)[col]Noise: No[col]?[col]0

Nico

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:No[col]----[col]----[col]----[col]Flipped Cultist.[col]0 Semioldguy[col]Noise:No Ward:No [col]Noise:Yes [col]Noise:Yes[col]?[col]Not more insane than VP.[col]0

SlySly

[col](Noise:No Ward:No) Stalk AMished/Magua [col]Noise:Yes[col]Noise:Yes Commune Magua[col]----[col]Flipped Cultist.[col]2 - Compulsion, Hallucination

Startransmission

[col]Noise:No Ward:No [col] ?[col]Murdered[col]---[col]Flipped Investigator.[col] 3 VP[col]Noise:Yes Ward:Yes(Adel) Warded by Wicked [col]Noise:Yes[col]Noise:No Ward:No[col]Commune(Semioldguy)[col]Ward on Adel failed N1 due to wicked warding him[col]1 - Twitchy Chaco[col]Noise:Yes Ward:Yes(Dram)[col]Stalk Startransmission[col]Murdered startransmission[col]?[col]?[col] 2

elvis

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:Yes (DGB)[col]Noise:yes Searched:Rez Kit[col]Noise:Yes(Fetish) Rezzed(somebody that wasn't targetted)[col]Murdered[col]Likely Investigator.[col]1 - Taboo(Launder)

wicked

[col]Noise:Yes Ward:Yes(VP)[col]Noise:No[col]Noise:No[col]Ritual'ed[col]Likely Investigator.[col]0

[Magua]

I heard no noise last night. For my two insanities, I took Twitchy and Distraction.

I got no equipment from either grave.

I will take over the charting, but won't be able to do so until tomorrow (Monday).

The kill of elvis_knits means that there is now a murderer who has completed two successful murders. This means in a minimum of two days, they are in a position to win the game.

I'm incredibly confident that none of the people on this list are the two-success murderer:

DrippingGoofball (no night action)
Ellibereth (robbed graves)
kunkstar7 (robbed graves)
Magua (robbed graves)
dramonic (robbed graves)
VP Baltar (iLord confirms with commune)
semioldguy (VP Baltar confirms with commune)
animorpherv1 (rewq confirms as not having murdered n1)

That leaves the following as possibilities:

Chaco
evilsnail
Furcolow (Hayker)
iLord
Plum
rewq455
vikingfan

We should lynch someone from this list, and if they don't come up with 4+ insanity, lynch someone from this list tomorrow. Which leads right in to evilsnail vs vikingfan.

If someone did resuscitate vikingfan, I'd like to hear the claim, obviously. Alternatively, if anyone communed vikingfan last night and got a result indicating less than 3 insanity. Otherwise, the timing does fit the profile of a murderer who is murdering but not stopping to launder. Also, the flipflop between utterly believing snail investigated him in 2035 and then speculating that maybe snail didn't investigate him at all in 2048 rings totally false.

Beyond the immediate issue of the two success murderer, there is at least one other murderer still out there. Taking the three kills from N1, subtracting startransmission, still leaves two. Letting the bodies linger until tomorrow gives us more of a chance of interrupting a murder, as before.

[DrippingGoofball]

I heard noise, got an insanity (chose aversion to iLord).

I'm in favor of lynching vikingfan.

[kunkstar7]

Magua, are those the only two insanities you have? I don't see any reference to any from earlier in the game.

[iLord]

Magua, somethings don't add up on your list. you think Ani's cleared because of rewq, than he can't be the 2-time murderer. If you think VP's cleared because of me, than I can't be the murderer. Chaco also murdered N2, so he can't have murdered N3. evilsnail also apparently investigated VF last night, so there's little chance he's the murderer as well.

VF's probably the 2-time murderer, so we shouldn't have to worry too much about Murder Win Con's, especially since there's at least 2 of them alive, not counting VF.

Vote: VikingFan

*twitch*

[animorpherv1]

@kunkstar:

Aversion (0 Days left, still counts)
Paranoia (FFFF I forgot when I voted Elli)
Aversion - Baltar

Also, I had no Action N2, due to too many Infractions.

[animorpherv1]

That leaves the following as possibilities:

Chaco
evilsnail
Furcolow (Hayker)
iLord
Plum
rewq455
vikingfan

I think I just had an idea.

Lynch one, then hope murderers who only have one kill are smart enough to recognize this and murder these people, because they are the murderer's biggest threats.

Also if we agree with this, murderers with one kill should claim so they can help us. We will promise not to lynch them (?).

[iLord]

I support murderers claiming.

[animorpherv1]

I support murderers claiming.

And the rest of it?

[rewq455]

This is the relevant bit from the rules:

Your target hears Noise. Any Resuscitate action targeting you tonight will fail, and the player who targeted you will not be notified of the failure. If you successfully protect them, you become Bloody,

and your target both becomes Bloody and gains an Insanity when the killing action (Murder or the Ritual) resolves

.

This says that the target and the rezzer become bloody

only when the killing action resolves

, so after Investigate.

Now, I suppose you could interpret the "and" differently, so that both the target and the rezzer become Bloody at the time of rezzing and then the target gains an insanity when the killing action resolves. That seems weird, but I guess you could read it that way.

HOWEVER, in the notes, the former interpretation is clearly emphasised.

If more killing actions target the player than there are players Resuscitating them, then the kill is not prevented,

though you still become Bloody when the killing action resolves

.

So, rezzing doesn't make you bloody until after the killing action and vikingfan was bloody before being rezzed.

Therefore, vikingfan is lying scum.

Exactly.

[animorpherv1]

you should've twitched with that. It would've worked to.

How would that prove I have twitchy?

Because if you didn't have twitchy, then you would stil get the infraction. And since you do, and you didn't twitch, it's 1 less Infraction towards loosing a Ngith Action (if you forget) and town loses an Action.

[rewq455]

The kill of elvis_knits means that there is now a murderer who has completed two successful murders. This means in a minimum of two days, they are in a position to win the game.

Couldn't we also have multiple murderer's though?

[animorpherv1]

The kill of elvis_knits means that there is now a murderer who has completed two successful murders. This means in a minimum of two days, they are in a position to win the game.

Couldn't we also have multiple murderer's though?

We do, but this murderer is ahead of the pack, with the 2 murders already, and the only one we need to worry about.

[VP Baltar]

Investigator

Cultist

Murderer

I've also taken the liberty of updated all of the replacement names so it will be easier to see continuity. I will be treating EK as confirmed Investigator as well. I could probably do the same for Wicked, but there is a very outside chance he's Cultist I guess.

Peak of the ani wagon

:

I basically view ani as confirmed town at this point, so i am going to put him as an investigator. I don't think much can change this at this point for him since he's been crippled so bad.

Vote Count

animorpherv1

- 10 (

elvis_knits, startransmission

, iLord,

Iecerint

, vikingfan,

Nicodemus

, Ellibereth,

animorpherv1

, dramonic, Furcolow)
dramonic - 2 (Magua, rewq455)
Adel - 2 (Wickedestjr,

SlySly

)
Ellibereth - 2 (VP Baltar,

Phate

)

Not Voting - 9 (

CSL

, kunkstar7, DrippingGoofball, evilsnail, Plum, semioldguy,

Sajin

, Chaco,

Katy

)

Competing Nicodemus and Iecerint wagons

:

I think this wagon is important to look at because you can obviously see from the revealed cultists thus far that they were making a concerted effort to derail Nico's wagon.

Iecerint

- 6 (VP Baltar,

elvis_knits

,

SlySly

, dramonic,

CSL

,

animorpherv1

)

Nicodemus

- 5 (iLord, vikingfan,

Katy

, DrippingGoofball, semioldguy)

startransmission

- 4 (

Sajin

, Ellibereth,

Iecerint, Phate

)
Furcolow - 1 (Wickedestjr)

animorpherv1

- 1 (

startransmission

)
Ellibereth - 1 (rewq455)

Katy

- 1 (evilsnail)
evilsnail - 1 (Magua)

Not Voting - 5 (kunkstar7, Plum, Chaco, Furcolow,

Nicodemus

)

Day 1, Final Vote Count

:

Nicodemus

- 14 (iLord, vikingfan,

Katy

, DrippingGoofball, semioldguy, VP Baltar, dramonic,

Iecerint, elvis_knits, animorpherv1

, Ellibereth, Chaco,

Nicodemus, CSL

)

startransmission

- 2 (

Sajin, Phate

)

Iecerint

- 1 (

SlySly

)
Hayker - 1 (Wickedestjr)

animorpherv1

- 1 (

startransmission

)
Ellibereth - 1 (rewq455)

Katy

- 1 (evilsnail)
evilsnail - 1 (Magua)

Not Voting - 3 (kunkstar7, Plum, Furcolow)

Day 2, Final Vote Count

:

CSL

- 11 (DrippingGoofball, vikingfan, rewq455, VP Baltar,

Phate

,

SlySly

, Ellibereth,

elvis_knits

, semioldguy,

startransmission

, dramonic)
kunkstar7 - 2 (

CSL

, Magua)

Not Voting - 8 (

animorpherv1

, Chaco, kunkstar7, evilsnail, Furcolow, iLord, Plum, Wickedestjr)

Day 3, Final Vote Count

:

SlySly

- 10 (Plum, DrippingGoofball, iLord, VP Baltar, Chaco, vikingfan, dramonic, evilsnail, rewq455, kunkstar7)
DrippingGoofball - 2 (Ellibereth,

SlySly

)
kunkstar7 - 1 (

elvis_knits

)
Wickedestjr - 1 (Furcolow)

Not Voting - 4 (

animorpherv1

, Magua, semioldguy, Wickedestjr)

---

I'm going to post this now. I don't have much time left before I have to go work this afternoon, but it's probably best to get it up so people can at least look at it.

I see these as the most relevant votecounts so far in the game. Unfortunately, I find that even if we assume Wickedestjr is Investigator, it doesn't change much of anything. Same with assuming vikingfan as murder.

I haven't really done the analysis part yet, but my initial reaction just from looking is that Ellibereth and dramonic have the a very high chance of being cult out of everyone. Chaco is a possible third for me, but his general absence complicates that read.

DGB is almost certainly not cult, but stands a chance of being a murderer.

I'll try to do some actual indepth analysis later when I have the time.

[iLord]

Because if you didn't have twitchy, then you would stil get the infraction. And since you do, and you didn't twitch, it's 1 less Infraction towards loosing a Ngith Action (if you forget) and town loses an Action.

Percy said that he'll give infractions to people trying to fake twitchy?

[animorpherv1]

Because if you didn't have twitchy, then you would stil get the infraction. And since you do, and you didn't twitch, it's 1 less Infraction towards loosing a Ngith Action (if you forget) and town loses an Action.

Percy said that he'll give infractions to people trying to fake twitchy?

But not getting one means you have it, just as much as getting one for not doing it means you have it.

[animorpherv1]

@iLord, I made DGB twitch and vote me:

By test, you mean vote without twitching?

Twitch please.


Either way, if your lying, we'll get an Insaity Infaction message.

*twitch*

vote: animorpherv1

[iLord]

But not getting one means you have it, just as much as getting one for not doing it means you have it.

I must be being absolutely thick right now, but I don't understand.

If I add twitch, how can you tell whether I have the insanity or I'm just faking?

I don't believe Percy is going to give insanity infractions to people that don't have twitchy, but put *twitch* in their votes anyway.

[animorpherv1]

But not getting one means you have it, just as much as getting one for not doing it means you have it.

I must be being absolutely thick right now, but I don't understand.

If I add twitch, how can you tell whether I have the insanity or I'm just faking?

I don't believe Percy is going to give insanity infractions to people that don't have twitchy, but put *twitch* in their votes anyway.

I swear Percy posted something in regards to this somewhere. I can't find it.

[kunkstar7]

I highly doubt percy would do that. It totally ruins the scums fakeclaiming insanities.

[Magua]

Magua, are those the only two insanities you have? I don't see any reference to any from earlier in the game.

Yes. I had 0 insanities before last night, and claimed this yesterday. I can find the post if you'd like.

Magua, somethings don't add up on your list. you think Ani's cleared because of rewq, than he can't be the 2-time murderer. If you think VP's cleared because of me, than I can't be the murderer. Chaco also murdered N2, so he can't have murdered N3. evilsnail also apparently investigated VF last night, so there's little chance he's the murderer as well.

VF's probably the 2-time murderer, so we shouldn't have to worry too much about Murder Win Con's, especially since there's at least 2 of them alive, not counting VF.

A murderer is playing alone, and we only have one murderer that we really need to worry about at this point. So, if someone gives information to clear someone else of being the murderer, that is likely trustworthy. Thus, I believe you clearing VP Baltar, because it falls into one of the following scenarios:

1) You are telling the truth: VP Baltar cannot be the 2-success murderer.
2) You are lying, because you are the 2-success murderer: Then VP Baltar is not.
3) You are lying for some other reason: You have other reason to believe VP Baltar is not the 2-success murderer, since it would make no sense for anyone to cover for him.

You're right that Chaco should not be on that list.

evilsnail, however, *should* remain on that list. I agree that vikingfan is much more likely, but in the event that he's *not*, the claimed investigation does not clear evilsnail.