Mini 946 The new Zachtown (Game Over!)

[Lacey]

Knowing how many mislynches we are from lylo is important to my personal strategies.

I didn't twist your words. You mention it right there. See it? ^ Right up there.

Yes, and it's an awful large leap to go from there to claiming I am thinking Day 1 is lylo.

Zach is a smart guy, he wouldn't design such an abusive game.

[Vi]

Knowing how many mislynches we are from lylo is important to my personal strategies.

I didn't twist your words. You mention it right there. See it? ^ Right up there.

Yes, and it's an awful large leap to go from there to claiming I am thinking Day 1 is lylo.

Permit me to clear things up.

You are already thinking

of

LyLo on D1?

More in a few minutes, hopefully.

[Zachrulez]

3rd vote count of day 1:

Lacey - 5 (Vi, VP Baltar, Jasper, d3x, DeathRowKitty)
Alexithymia - 2 (Sotty7, Col.Cathart)
Sotty7 - 1 (Jeromus)
Jeromus - 1 (Lacey)

Not voting (Cirdua, Alexithymia, JasonT1981)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

If I made any mistakes, let me know asap.

DL is April 16 at 1pm CST.

[Vi]

Impressions on the way down.

In the context of Alex's reputation preceding him, I'm tempted to not worry about him and turn the mute button on until he does something egregiously bad. However, I am curious as to how he knows what I've done so far is "Vi being Vi" though, as well as how he's apparently suspicious of my "votehopping" in the same breath as saying that I'm just being myself. Alex seems to be under the misguided impression that we had much of an RVS for some reason, and that everyone chose to participate - the only people who were in an RVS were jason and the ones who ignored the Alex wagon for some reason.

---

While I have seen Lacey play before, it wasn't in a closed setup; and if there's a meta saying she likes trying to cloud every conclusion we can come up with Today, I can sort of relax on her.
By the way, change your meta. It's harmful for the reasons I brought up earlier, plus you can't disavow

every

Town read you have because there's a

chance

there might be multiple scum groups. Further, using your meta as a crutch looks severely unsatisfying no matter what it is you're trying to justify. Last, the general rule is that Town loses after mislynching three times if there are more than seven players (even in Large games, as long as there are more than seven players).
I asked Lacey what it's like to be scum simply because I don't know how her personality type plays as Mafia. (and to potentially scare the bejeezus out of her if she WAS scum)

---

VP Baltar took the words out of my e-mouth in naming Col.Cathart and Cirdua as the next choices in scum. Cirdua's first two posts look like terribly awkward attempts to integrate himself into the game that fell flat. Look at post 42, where he manages to disagree with Col.Cathart and yet still say absolutely nothing solid. In post 45 he tries to tell us that everyone is focusing on Alex, when that's patently untrue. All I see are attempts to avoid controversy.

As to Co

[o]

lCat:

Cirdua and jeromus - You are both missing the point of the wagon, at least in my eyes.

He voted himself. RVS or not, if he votes himself, then he's not town.

Now that's a severe stretch. I've known a number of people who voted themselves first thing as policy. One of them claimed Serial Killer in each game while self-voting. While I know they did it regardless of alignment, I can say that they were always Town in the games I was in and that no cataclysm of fire (or quicklynch) occurred because of it.

If you had posted that with quantifiers (i.e. "most likely scum based on what we know at this point") I would have been fine. Here you're point-blank justifying a 100% blind policy wagon that probably-not-coincidentally you were

fifth

on. I don't care that it's your "berserk button" and I don't particularly care that there's no direct Town motivation to self-vote (what do you think of Alex playing it off as Fong's Gambit?).

---

I had to Vi... I had read a couple of games you were in and have been wanting to play with you. Glad we are here in this game.

Which games? o.o;

@DRK: I didn't even do it this time v.v
Come join the vote I'm about to make; it's shiny and comes with a little blue umbrella poking out the top.

@d3x: With a post that only protests like that aside one other post that jumps fourth on a wagon, don't you think he's justified in calling you a lurker?~

I don't have an issue with jeromus at this time.

---

Hilariously, Lacey now has the same size of bandwagon as Alex did. I'm going to change that and chase the person who is least good at making excuses for acting like scum.

Unvote: Lacey
Vote: Cirdua

(L-6)

This post might have been made under the influence of ice cream cake. I'll try to keep the wallposts down.

[Jasper]

Vi the main one was when sotty replaced into... and there were 2 claimed docs. That was fun to read.

And I was looking for your name after that, because I thought you looked like a good player... and Zach spoke highly of you too.

[Vi]

Vi the main one was when sotty replaced into... and there were 2 claimed docs. That was fun to read.

Oh, that was Random C9. Fun with JDodge. I was such a newb back then >.>

And I was looking for your name after that, because I thought you looked like a good player... and Zach spoke highly of you too.

I'm glad to hear Zach recommended me, given our experiences in each game we've played together...

Anyway, do you think Lacey is most likely scum right nao?

[d3x]

With a post that only protests like that aside one other post that jumps fourth on a wagon, don't you think he's justified in calling you a lurker?

touché

I still like my Lacey Vote.

[Lacey]

By the way, change your meta. It's harmful for the reasons I brought up earlier, plus you can't disavow

every

Town read you have because there's a

chance

there might be multiple scum groups.

Well I wouldn't say that I am claiming to cloud judgement on Day 1, or disavowing town reads, so I resent that. I've not attempted to cloud a single thing, nor disavowed any town reads as of yet. I'm just trying to get a sense of where the game is and what I ought to be looking for.

That being said, I do need to change my meta. While I take the two times I was night killed on N1 with a little bit of pride, I did get mislynched once, and have led the bandwagons on mislynches. So I definitely need to find a better way to scum hunt effectively, and pick up on actual scum tells, instead of just anti-town tells.

Last, the general rule is that Town loses after mislynching three times if there are more than seven players (even in Large games, as long as there are more than seven players).

Where does this rule come from? It's an interesting theory if there is reason to believe it. Did you mean seven town, or seven players? Because C9 allows only one mislynch.

I'd like to hear what folks think of jeromus and Alexithymia.

d3x needs to stop looking like an active lurker and post some case analysis.

[Vi]

By the way, change your meta. It's harmful for the reasons I brought up earlier, plus you can't disavow

every

Town read you have because there's a

chance

there might be multiple scum groups.

Well I wouldn't say that I am claiming to cloud judgement on Day 1, or disavowing town reads, so I resent that. I've not attempted to cloud a single thing, nor disavowed any town reads

as of yet.

Most of all we need to keep in mind the potential setups when building our cases and examining our evidence.

For example, since (B) is a potential case, someone scum hunting vigorously needs to not be taken as a gold standard of being town.

Vigilance will be key.

"As of yet" is correct; that's why we're having this conversation.

Also, unless I'm mistaken Minis are more likely to have one Mafia group than two (not factoring in SKs, which are their own category). Even if there are two groups, I would sooner hunt for scum as if there were a single group and find out that there are more than try to make connections like there are two groups and find out there's only one. In the former case, I can at least know that my thought processes are not flawed from the beginning if I'm wrong.

Last, the general rule is that Town loses after mislynching three times if there are more than seven players (even in Large games, as long as there are more than seven players).

Where does this rule come from? It's an interesting theory if there is reason to believe it. Did you mean seven town, or seven players? Because C9 allows only one mislynch.

Mostly from looking at other peoples' setups and finding that they work. In general, Town should not lose after two mislynches in all but the worst of the worst cases in any game larger than a C9. For instance, Newbie games last for three Days at a minimum; the earliest Town can lose is after three mislynches. Here is a 13-4-1 game with four kills per cycle. After two cycles, assuming all of the dead are Town (the worst of the worst cases) the game is at 5-4-1, which while not good for the Town or SK is not yet a Mafia win. This is an 8-4 mini with one voteless Mafioso, allowing for four scum and still allowing Town to mislynch twice before losing. In games with sparse power roles (or none at all) you may even get four mislynches.

C9s are obviously too small for this rule to apply, so etc.

[VP Baltar]

Alex saying people are vote hopping is ridiculous. I have a feeling it is going to be difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff this game. *sigh*

I do like Lacey's questioning in this regard, however.

Serious VP? The game had been open less than 24 hours and you're calling 'lurker'?

Yes. It's like christmas, you can never start too early. JINGLE BELLS JINGLE BELLS JINGLE JINGLE JANGLE....START POSTING.

Way to twist my words. I'd just like to know how many lynches we get. I've played a lot of C9, where you have to guess right very quickly.

Generally speaking, we'll probably have anywhere between 2 and 4 mislynches to play with. I really think you should be more focused on scumhunting and gathering information, however. Stop worrying about mislynching today because more than likely it will happen. The key is to gather enough info that if you do happen to mislynch, you can capitalize the next day and crush the scum.

This post might have been made under the influence of ice cream cake.

So you not only have to beat me in a game tonight, but then you have to brag about ice cream cake. -________________________________-

touché

I still like my Lacey Vote.

-_________________________-

I'd like to hear what folks think of jeromus and Alexithymia.

Meh for now. jeromus bothers me more out of the pair, but I think there are better places to look atm.

Unvote, Vote: Col. Cathart

Double scum wagon mania! Join the fun now!

[Vi]

Cooooooooooookiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeesssss aaaaaaaaaannnnndddddd Creeeeeeeeeeeéeeeeeeemmmmmmme

Also, "double scum wagon mania"?

[VP Baltar]

God I wish this was MSN so I could use my middle finger emoticon.....


and Double Scum Wagon Mania! is only for people voting Cirdua or The Colonel.

[Vi]

Is DSWM! better than a straight Cirdua wagon?

Also, do you use AIM?

[VP Baltar]

Is DSWM! better than a straight Cirdua wagon?

Also, do you use AIM?

Hmm, well I like the mania and I'd like to see where it leads first. People should get off the Lacey wagon because it's old hat now.

I do use aim...but pretty much only sign on through my gmail, which is grossly lacking in middle finger emoticons.

[Vi]

Today we learn what's

really

important in your online experience.

[d3x]

Case Analysis? Lol. Page 4 Analysis coming right up...

1. There's way too much static going on around here. As I've said before, a lot of words are being used by a lot of people to give the impression of providing 'content'. Names chiefly include Lacey for her worthless long-winded setup speculation and jeromus with his Alex defending and BSG chat.

2. There's a weird vibe from the block of Alex, jeromus, and Cirdua that I'm having a hard time getting a solid read on this early in the game. I'm assuming that they have extensive histories or some such thing and once the in jokes are done and they begin actually investing, I don't think it'll be such a problem for me.

3. Lacey is still my #1 pick for multiple reasons. VP shot out an early lurker comment {funny as I hadn't gotten a chance to even check the thread yet} and Vi backed it up poignantly. Lacey then jumps in accusing me of actively lurking. BS on page 4 with less than 2 RL days into the game, but whatever. I believe someone else said this earlier, but dual Mafia speculation on page 4? Ridiculous. Those of us in the Town have

no

information on the make-up of the Scum team{s}. The only people with setup knowledge at this point would be Scum.f They know how many they started with and can wager guesses on the number of Anti-Town factions out there. I believe it was a slip meant to make her look more 'Town minded' and I'm happy with my Vote.

Lacey- Do you think I'm Scum? How do you feel about active lurkers?

[Lacey]

Lacey- Do you think I'm Scum? How do you feel about active lurkers?

No, I don't think you are scum, if I did, I'd be voting or FoSing you. I just wanted you to begin posting substance rather than filler, which you've now started to do.

In general I believe active lurkers appear scummy. Folks need to take positions on lynch candidates, and players. Post reasons, and discuss their current beliefs. Active lurkers don't do this, so at best they are anti-town.

So here are my main reads:

jeromus - Scummy. I don't like his defense of Alexithymia, his explanation, or his avoidance of the thread once he began to be questioned.

@jeromus: What do you think of Alexithymia's accusations of vote hopping?

Alexithymia - Scummy. Attacking me for "vote hopping" when I voted for his defender. Then claiming it was actually Vi he was suspicious of, even though she's not vote hopped either.

Vi - Town, Vi is scum hunting and doing a good job of driving conversations without controlling them. Seems the model townie.

@Vi - What does your comment about Cirdua mean? I don't fully understand your vote here.

I promise not to cloud the discussion with talk of the setup. I did read your guide on Modding, between this and some of your comments on setup, could I secure a date post game for some PM's on the subject? I'd like to discuss the theory and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it.

VP Baltar - Town, same general vibe as Vi.

@VP Baltar - What about Col Cathart makes you favor him for a vote right now? You state he is a better place to look than jeromus/Alexithymia. Can you help us understand your feeling?

d3x - Leaning town if he keeps posting.

@d3x - I'd like to hear more from you about some of the other scum cases out there right now.

Jasper - Leaning town. He's doing his research on claimed metas which I doubt scum would do.

All the rest, I don't feel comfortable saying anything but that they need to post more.

Offline until Monday

[jeromus]

There's not even extensive history between Cird, Alex and I...Just intensive. Basically, Cirdua scum-pwned us both, having Alex mislynched and then was on the way to victory when our mod left us - As a result, Alex declared a vendetta against Cirdua, and I just felt like tagging along in this game.

"Enjoy the noose" was in reference to my declaration of "Enjoy the noose" when putting Alex at L-1, not realising - HEY! That's INCREDIBLY suspicious! Who'd have know? - Causing the bandwagon to turn at me...

So - Enough about the past! I find Alex's post about vote hopping odd... Not enough to warrant a vote, but I don't see Vi votehopping as you seem to. I've very little to take fro this game thus far, hopefully a lack of sleep deprivation will assist tomorrow. I think very little of these accusations, other than to believe them to be invalid. I see no reason that votehopping is terribly worth commenting on, as a matter of fact, other than it doesn't give the town quite so clearly cut a view on where they're waggling their finger, in which case I can only recommend reading things that aren't bolded as well.

[Vi]

@Vi - What does your comment about Cirdua mean? I don't fully understand your vote here.

I promise not to cloud the discussion with talk of the setup. I did read your guide on Modding, between this and some of your comments on setup, could I secure a date post game for some PM's on the subject? I'd like to discuss the theory and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it.

Simply put, Cirdua has avoided saying anything definite and seems to be trying to avoid offending people. Scum have every reason to do that; Town, not so much. Look at something like post 51, where instead of looking for scum, he tells Alex to play better or he might "get frustrated", whatever that may entail.

I'll certainly discuss theory with you; just ask when you're ready.

I'm not sure why you think d3x is Town, but I have a guess - I just don't agree with it.

[Col.Cathart]

As to Co

[o]

lCat:

Cirdua and jeromus - You are both missing the point of the wagon, at least in my eyes.

He voted himself. RVS or not, if he votes himself, then he's not town.

Now that's a severe stretch. I've known a number of people who voted themselves first thing as policy. One of them claimed Serial Killer in each game while self-voting. While I know they did it regardless of alignment, I can say that they were always Town in the games I was in and that no cataclysm of fire (or quicklynch) occurred because of it.

If you had posted that with quantifiers (i.e. "most likely scum based on what we know at this point") I would have been fine. Here you're point-blank justifying a 100% blind policy wagon that probably-not-coincidentally you were

fifth

on. I don't care that it's your "berserk button" and I don't particularly care that there's no direct Town motivation to self-vote (what do you think of Alex playing it off as Fong's Gambit?).

1) I was fifth on the wagon, because I logged on later than everyone else one the wagon (damn fried computer! Thankfully tomorrow I'll have a new one, so I should be posting more often, and stop abusing my friends for Internet ). If I were around earlier, I would be much earlier on it. It's simple as that.

2) Yeah, as you may guessed from my previous posts, I'm perfectly fine with policy lynches, especially D1 when it doesn't hurt town that much even if bothersome player turns out not to be scum.

Yeah, I avoided saying 'turns out to be town' because I know self-voter is not town. He may not be mafia, but certainly he's not town if he willingly decides to cripple the town by voting himself.

3) Fong Gambit? Never heard of.

*reads*

That's a town gambit? It sure doesn't look like. You are making something incredibly scummy, which in my eyes perfectly justifies every vote flying in your direction, and then attack one of the voters for doing the right thing, if some of them will catch some heat along the way?

I would behave like that if I were be scum, not town...

------------------------------

Damn Sunday... I'm out till Monday. Proper read and more scumhunting comes tomorrow, hopefully on my new comp.

[Sotty7]

Weekend posting is a pain for me. I will try and get on this afternoon and catch up. So I am here, but not really.

[Alexithymia]

PBPA - Page Four

Sotty - 4 posts

In her first post Sotty voted for Alex saying that he was scum and should die. Was this because of his selfvote and obvious fake claim? Or was it just a random vote?

Post 2 - Fluff. 'Nuff said.

Is wrong when she said that self voting doesn''t help anyone. Actually, it does help with reaction hunting. Usually the people to attack a person in the RVS stage for voting themselves are scum strawmanning a case. Plus, I always saw the RVS as a stage when you could always vote for whoever you wanted without someone jumping down your throat. OMG [PLAYERNAME] VOTED DURING THE RVS, THEY MUST BE SCUM!

Conclusion - Sotty needs to post more before I can get an accurate read on her.

------

Jason

Random vote with a fake claim (Yay!), nothing wrong with that.

I get a very town read from his second post, though. It's the way town would think; not getting hung up over someone voting during the RVS, but how the other players react to that vote.

Conclusion - So far town. Needs to talk tomorrow.

---------

Jasper

Posts one and two are fluff and random vote. Nothing wrong there.

I had to Vi... I had read a couple of games you were in and have been wanting to play with you. Glad we are here in this game.

Possible buddying of Vi here. Need to keep an eye on this. See how it developes.

As for Alex's meta giving you a headache, clearly you've never played with Mastin or Haylen. The self vote(d) and fakeclaimed all the time during the RVS. It worked for them, although one of them never got policy lynched over it

In your next post, you mention how Lacey's meta doesn't seem very successful to you. How is this relevant? And will you be treating her differently this game after seeing her games?

Misreps or misinterprets Lacey when he says that she thinks they are in lylo already. Clearly Lacey was going on about mafia mathematics, it is useful to know how many mislynches we are from lylo because the town are always better off when there is an odd number of players. This helps to prevent mylo situations in which the mafia hold the cards with what they do during the night. The night after mylo, they could either no kill and go back to mylo and force the town to kill and possibly mislynch. Or they could kill and go back to lylo. Lylo = good for town. mylo = good for scum. If you see what I mean there.

And I was looking for your name after that, because I thought you looked like a good player... and Zach spoke highly of you too.

More possible buddying.

Hey, Jasper? You scum?

Conclusion: Scummy. May vote for him.

More coming later.

[VP Baltar]

@VP Baltar - What about Col Cathart makes you favor him for a vote right now? You state he is a better place to look than jeromus/Alexithymia. Can you help us understand your feeling?

Sure, his placement and reasoning for getting on the Alex wagon are hilariously bad. I mean:

if he votes himself, then he's not town.

Seriously? he's not town if he votes himself? I've seen many a town players vote themselves. The reason I jumped on the wagon in the first place was for a scum to come along and slide on with crappy reasoning like this. I didn't mind it at first when I thought he was just wagoning, but trying to push it as legitimate is scummy.

In terms of Jer/Alex, they need to get out of discussing past games, but nothing that either has said really has any scummy motivation behind it at this point. That's why I think col. Cat or Cirdua are much better places to be voting.

In terms of Cirdua, Vi's post highlights what bothered me most:

Look at something like post 51, where instead of looking for scum, he tells Alex to play better or he might "get frustrated", whatever that may entail.

Not only is this not saying anything, but it's opening a door to jump on that wagon if it needs one final push over the edge. There really isn't much reason for town to issue warnings like this to people.

You should join in on the DSWM!, Lacey.

2) Yeah, as you may guessed from my previous posts, I'm perfectly fine with policy lynches, especially D1 when it doesn't hurt town that much even if bothersome player turns out not to be scum.

How quickly do you like to carry out policy lynches? What is gained by the town with a lynch of this nature?

@Alex - please just keep your notes to yourself and vote someone in your next post with why specifically you find them scummy. That or ask questions that will help you determine who is scummiest in your opinion. Not only does your current method clog the thread unnecessarily, but it gives away your thoughts very early to scum and allows them to adjust their play accordingly to push suspicion elsewhere.

tl;dr Keep your town reads to yourself for now and stick to the scumhunting.

As for Alex's meta giving you a headache, clearly you've never played with Mastin or Haylen. The self vote(d) and fakeclaimed all the time during the RVS. It worked for them, although one of them never got policy lynched over it

Two players you should not even think about modeling your play after. Just an opinion.

[Vi]

Col.Cat, you're making a first-thing self-vote out to be The Worst Thing you can do... which it's not. Not everyone who self-votes is Mafia or even a village idiot (never mind that I'm not exactly QFTing what he's saying). Furthermore, while one could make the argument that self-voting makes them the scummiest person

on Page 1

, that doesn't justify what you're saying here.

I've seen people self-vote. As Town. Fairly often. I just got out of a game where someone claimed Cop out of spite shortly before getting force-replaced. Town (and indeed the Cop). I was in one of zwetschenwasser's first games on site, which should explain itself. Town (and another Cop). Granted in the latter two cases these players proceeded to be reasonably useless, but we had zero reason to lynch them simply because they did things that were much more harmful to Town than self-voting on Page 1.

This is really easy to understand. Considering I don't remember you being abjectly terrible at Mafia or profoundly bigoted the last time I saw you, I'm having a hard time believing you believe what you're putting out.

--

Mastin or Haylen

Two players you should not even think about modeling your play after. Just an opinion.

I agree fully, unconditionally, wholeheartedly. Except I don't have opinions; I divine Absolute Truth.
Further, and just to drive the point in--

The self vote(d) and fakeclaimed all the time during the RVS. It worked for them, although one of them never got policy lynched over it

As far as I know, no, they were never policy lynched. However, I can provide a game where Mastin was dayvigged in 38 hours in spite of claiming a power role (and the people rejoiced). Based on what I've seen, the reason Haylen is considered "crazy good" as scum/third party is because she does the same things she does as Town* (and she will freely admit her Town play needs improvement) and people don't lynch her for reasons that completely escape me.

*except as an IC, where she makes an effort to be more of a model

[Alexithymia]

tl;dr Keep your town reads to yourself for now and stick to the scumhunting.

So that' where i've been going wrong.

Two players you should not even think about modeling your play after. Just an opinion.

What's wrong with their play?