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I agree with you in the sense that if it was just a couple of scummy comments wf made before he replaced out, then that's little to go on. I guess what puts it over the top for me, is that Spyrex was on the SSSS wagon. That's the kicker, Sucrose, and you can break it down with me.Sucrose 391 wrote:On the other hand, I've seen bizarre, WTF actions by people who have flipped town too. I don't see those D1 comments as good enough to solely base a lynch off of.
Let's both go from the starting point that there is at least one, and there's a good possibility there is two, scum on the SSSS wagon, okay?Mod 313 wrote:Dragonfly13(3): havingfitz, Nobody Special, smashbro_of_the_SSSS,
smashbro_of_the_SSS(6): Sucrose, chauchaudotcom, jbernier93, Dragonfly13, SpyreX, Deer
Nobody Special(2): TeWuicah, peanutman
Let's throw out you and Deer, because I know I am town, and I feel okay about you for the moment. Let's throw out chau, because I think we both feel okay about her.
Who does that leave?
jbern, Dragonfly, and Spyrex.
Of those three, who do you think is most likely to be scum?
I think, personally, it is Spyrex, then jbern, then Dragonfly, in that order.
That's how I got to my conclusion, Sucrose. I feel very confident that if we lynched Spyrex or jbern, we'd be making progress.
I'm not sure what an "either/neither" situation is, but I would say NS is probably 4th most scummy at this point. The worst thing I hold against him is his excuses for lurking D1. Nikanor has been doing pretty good so far, so it's getting more difficult to for me to hold her accountable for Te. I definitely think jbern and Spyrex have a significant edge over NS though. The town usually does very well if they don't ignore wagons and lynches, those are among the best tools a town has at its disposal.Sucrose 391 wrote:What do you think of Nobody Special? Do you think him and Jbernier are in an either/neither situation?
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I'm not taking it literally of course, but how sure can you be on D1, with no flips, no lynches, no investigations, and no role claims? There's a difference between now and yesterday.Spyrex 392 wrote:The idea of "I'll eat my hat" if this happens is an expression of confidence. One that, of course, I see used all the time right or wrong. If anything, vehemence in that day 1 wagon strikes me as townish versus scummy.
I'm going to expand on this later in this post, but, as I've already told you, SSSS' wagon is what sets you apart. You couple the SSSS vote with wf's play, and you have a recipe for potential (notice I put the word potential in here, chau, so now you can rest easy) scum.Spyrex 392 wrote:And, we're running into the classic part of the Sins of the Father. If you're confident wf is scum you have to be confident I am as well. However, when I'm attacked on the basis of my predecessor I'm put in that awesome position of being unable to elucidate or defend behaviorI have not committed.
The same goes for jbern.
The more I think about this, the more I understand where you are coming from. Do you think it's more advantageous to lynch from Te, NS, and peanut then? I think I can mull that over at the very least, because there is a logic to that. Still, if you want to break it down to the raw numbers, a 2/5 chance is better than a 1/3 chance.Spyrex 392 wrote:Having the most voters is backwards unless you think there is a 2 split. Otherwise, with the other business going on, this seems like justification-after-the-fact for having a basis to vote me.
I think a 2 split is more likely than a 1:1:1 split or a split with just one scum on SSSS.
Well, whether or not it was scum driven is yet to be seen. I don't know if the most active proponents of the SSSS lynch (namely jbern, Sucrose, and chau), are more or less likely to be scum than those that "went along for the ride" (namely you and Dragonfly).Spyrex 392 wrote:However, I wasn't the one saying it was a good lynch (justifying your replacements position on it) and then attacking the lynch itself as scum driven.
Maybe we just have a politcal disagreement, but I tend to think you're just trying to throw dirt on the prospect of using the SSSS wagon as the tool that it is.
Let's lay our cards on the table,
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I feel the same, but I gather it's more a political disagreement I have with her. Besides, I don't really see a scum reason to hold back on lynching SSSS at that point.Dragonfly 393 wrote:I had a bit of a weird vibe from that chau post when I first read it, but I let it go because the rest of her play has been really precise.
Well, there's a couple of things about this. Deer's townmeta seems to be inactive (I don't know if his scummeta speaks to this). Moreover, I really do think Deer's questions, as few as they were, made much more of an impact than jbern, NS, and to an extent Te as well. jbern is essentially tunnelled on SSSS, NS makes a post every now and again to excuse himself for real life issues, and Te, although I really liked some of his earlier play, was caught in some nasty contradiction mid-day that basically muted him from that point on. Deer pressured multiple people and he asked questions as opposed to complaining about other people lurking. What more can you ask of a town-sided player?Dragonfly 393 wrote:Do you think Deer was also guilty of only posting when necessary?
Come on, Dragonfly. You don't really like the second quote, do you? Do I really need to walk on eggshells around everyone? Can y'all really not handle me saying "Player A is scum because" without automatically assuming that I am saying that Player A is "caught" scum? I never implied that about anyone. I like to be forceful about my suspicions and explain them as honestly as I can. For the record: No one is caught scum. I do not think anyone is 100% certain scum or 100% certain town (except for myself).Dragonfly 393 wrote:Though I like the 2nd above quote, and I'm interested in the response. I like that RC also pointed out the first.
I can't believe I have to say that.
Well, it's more a play on what Spyrex said earlier. He said that he is positive there is one scum between me, Nikanor, and NS. I told him switch out my name with his and I will agree with that statement.Dragonfly 393 wrote:Should you add JB in there? Or is JB just kinda scummy anyway?
I do think jbern has a fair chance at being scum as well.
I wish I would've been here to tell Deer to jump on wf. XDDragonfly 393 wrote:Deer's ISO 20 is a response about wf, but he doesn't actively share his opinions on wf at the time of the wagon. What do you have to say about this, red? You say wf's wagon appeared a bit like he was scum because his scumbuddies were taking too long to jump on, or something. So would Deer fit into the role of wf-scumbuddy in this case?
Seriously though, I know Deer overlooked wf. I also know that most of the town unintentionally overlooked him. That being said, I think certain players in this game may or may not have had an active role in steering the attention away from wf and putting more on SSSS, nzhang, or even NS. That's not to say these parties didn't deserve to be scrutinized, but, like, what did jbern have to say about wf? Nothing so far as I can tell.
You and me both. jbern is in full defensive mode at this point, essentially not really giving the town any offense or putting himself out there in any sort of opinionated fashion. He's hanging back and swatting at anyone who questions his motivations yesterday. Spyrex, to his credit, has done okay to get on chau, jbern, and peanut's good side, and is playing like you would expect someone who won a "Most Improved" scummy to play. He can't speak for wf though, and I guarantee you that if Spyrex were in your shoes, or mine, he'd be calling out that role slot both for wf's play and for Spyrex's participation on the SSSS lynch.Dragonfly 393 wrote:I want to see more of what Spy and JB have to offer.
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"Deer was scummy".jbern 398 wrote:That would be the player I'm voting... Deer was scummy and RC hasn't done anything townie enough to make me move my vote.
Is that all you're banking on? Why don't you try actually engaging me. Even if you don't want to argue about my contributions, I'm willing to argue about Deer. I know I replaced Deer, but I honestly also think he's gotten a bad rap. If we're going to lynch based on D1 actions, then you, Spyrex, or Nikanor need to eat the lynch today.
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I respect that, but many of the players didn't seem to have that problem with rzhang. I guess what worries me is that Spyrex came in and it was as if the slate was wiped clean. Yeah, you pushed on him a little, but once he left you and everyone else seemed to take it as an excuse to drop him.chau 399 wrote:How do you pressure someone who has disappeared? That's essentially a waste of time. And I do believe at that time I was asking wf questions (along w/ others) and fingers were being pointed in his direction. Would you not call that an attempt to pressure? But since wf didn't exactly come back to comment on anything it's rather difficult to pursue any further until replacement right?
But to be fair, there were plenty of other targets to set your sights on as well. XD
Well, I would argue that Deer was one of the few players advancing this game on D1 (You, Deer, and Sucrose were the posts I liked reading at the beginning of the day, then when Dragonfly and Spyrex came in most everyone else started to really get it into gear), but I can't speak for Deer's D2 absence other than to say in the only other game I've played with Deer he was prone to long strings of inactivity.chau 399 wrote:You can look at my reasoning for my vote on Deer, I think I made it pretty clear. His was pretty set on rz all day but his switch to SSSS was too convenient and too abrupt. But his complete avoidance of this game d2 is what threw me over the most.
As for rz, I felt he was frustrated town from the beginning. And NS? Honestly. He's just too absurd for me to believe he's scum. ESPECIALLY his case on JB. JB = scum because of gut? Really? Scum have all night and all day to think about cases to push d2. Plus they get the added bonus of discussing with their buddy (or buddies) =/ To fall back on jb being scum because of gut? It's just too obvious of a fail.
NS' entire game so far has been basically open to interpretation. Excuses and vauge generalities. The only think I can really pin NS to is his suspicions of jbern, but even that didn't feel genuine. As far as nzhang goes, and I think this may partially speak to your discord on Deer as well, I really didn't care for him. I didn't care for him or fallen. Dragonfly as done okay, and peanut has too (to a lesser extent), but none of them really compare to wf.