Open 201 v2.0 ~ F&I Mafia ~ Game Over

[Sando]

KMDs strong 'gut reads' apparently getting turned around based on 1 post are getting on my nerves. Constantly stating that someone is town without reasoning is not helpful.

Col C, you seem pretty happy to accept that people think you're town based on Lacey's play, but any time someone brings up Lacey's scum play you think that's stupid...

[Kmd4390]

Sando, which of my reads would you like more reasoning on?

[JacobSavage]

Lets deal in simple maths
[---------------------------------------------]
Town Scum

With Lacey I got:
[--------------I------------------------------]
Town Scum

But With Col. I got:
[------------------------------------I--------]
Town Scum

Overall:
[---------------------------I-----------------]
Town Scum

[Kmd4390]

Lets deal in simple maths
[---------------------------------------------]
Town Scum

With Lacey I got:
[--------------I------------------------------]
Town Scum

But With Col. I got:
[------------------------------------I--------]
Town Scum

Overall:
[---------------------------I-----------------]
Town Scum

Ok, but I'm not seeing that with the two quotes.

You said:
-Col is one of your top two suspects.

You agreed with me saying:
-Col wagon is bad because Lacey was town.

I want you to give me a read. Lacey/Col is town or Lacey/Col is scum. What is it? You can't have Lacey as town and Col as scum and average it out to null, especially when you call Col a top suspect and then actively agree that the wagon is bad.

Also, I'm not sure how accurate you were trying to get with that...er...graph(?)... but it seems to imply that your town read on Lacey was weaker than what you seemed to be saying.

[Sando]

Lacey, and I don't like the simple 'Lacey is town' statements. Scum will like going after town, if you strongly think someone is town and have reasoned arguments as to why, I don't know why you wouldn't be looking closely at the people on the wagon. The switching from your read seems somewhat contrived as well.

Simply stating that someone is town, and doing it repeatedly, strikes me as just trying to diffuse a wagon.

[Kmd4390]

Lacey, and I don't like the simple 'Lacey is town' statements. Scum will like going after town, if you strongly think someone is town and have reasoned arguments as to why, I don't know why you wouldn't be looking closely at the people on the wagon. The switching from your read seems somewhat contrived as well.

Simply stating that someone is town, and doing it repeatedly, strikes me as just trying to diffuse a wagon.

I explained that earlier. The fact that she was willing to self-lynch in response to my attacks was one of the strongest towntells I have seen in a mafia game. Lacey is a relatively new player. If she was scum, her first instinct is likely to be a thought process along the lines of "I hope I don't screw my scumbuddy over", so she'd NEVER, in a MILLION YEARS, accept something like that. If she's town, she doesn't know who else is town so she's unlikely to have the same thought process. Maybe she'd still be hoping not to screw up, but it wouldn't be as strong an influence on her actions and if she honestly believed me to be scum, she may think she's doing her part to help the town.

I can't even think of a stronger town tell that I've ever seen before. Well, actually, just thought of one that comes close and that was in the /invitational number four when Bridges (who I'd been calling scum) claimed vanilla. My arguement was that an experienced player like that in a game full of experienced players, would never claim vanilla as scum. I unvoted and said I was sure he was town. He was lynched and flipped vanilla town.

[The Quintastic One]

It may of been a very strong town tell for you, but for me and a few other people it was very scummy and anti-town of her to want to earnestly get herself lynched JUST so that the town would possibly lynch you upon seeing her flip town. I mean, if you are town, and she got you both lynched, that's possibly 4 townies down in a matter of 2 days including night phases. How is that in any way helpful? The only reason why I could find her town in that situation was because no scum in their right mind would be like "please lynch me!". UNLESS, they were playing a gambit that begs the town to lynch them, in an effort to prove that they are town, when in fact they are actually scum, and the town wouldn't in good faith actually lynch someone trying to sacrifice themselves because that's not seen as scummy to a majority of people.

So basically, TL;DR: Lacey would of "wanted" us to lynch her, knowing full well that we wouldn't of lynched her, because we would think like KMD, and make her out to be Obvtown, despite the fact that she is actually very smart scum.

[Kmd4390]

TQO, you are so close to understand it. You are seeing "annoying and unhelpful". Step back from that for a second. The answer is right in your post:

The only reason why I could find her town in that situation was because no scum in their right mind would be like "please lynch me!". UNLESS, they were playing a gambit that begs the town to lynch them, in an effort to prove that they are town, when in fact they are actually scum, and the town wouldn't in good faith actually lynch someone trying to sacrifice themselves because that's not seen as scummy to a majority of people.

I don't think Lacey was playing the gambit you describe here. She is a newer player and her posts looked like she genuinely wanted to go along with a "trade".

You are EXTREMELY close to understanding why Lacey is obvtown. You practically spelled out my logic. You just aren't coming to the same conclusion because you are assuming too much.

[yellowbunny]

Vote: Col. Cathart.

Where I could excuse Lacey's play as anti-town, yet still town, Cathart's recent attempts to ignore anything that happened during the Lacey situation simply because he is not Lacey seems like nervousness and backpedaling away from her anti-townness in an attempt to get himself a clean slate by covering up any conspicuous actions that were of no fault of his own.

Yes, because most of the people here found her scummy at one point or another, or at the least anti-town, so at least trying to help explain it would be good. You can't just start ignoring all suspicions of the person replaced unless you can prove you're not scummy.

While I'm not going to go so far as to say demanding a replacement player explain what the previous person in their slot was thinking is a scum-tell (as I've seen townies do it), its not a very fair thing to do, and potentially a dangerous thing to do.

Also, if you both feel this way, why did you not object to my refusing to explain Goro's behavior?

b) Gheb was scum all of last game, and I didn't suspect anything from him then, and this time he is following the same play style.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding here, but what I'm getting out of this is that last time Gheb didn't do anything to make you suspicious, and he was scum. This time he hasn't done anything suspicious, so that makes you think he's scum. Did I miss something?

[CSL]

Flavor

Nothing happens. Maemuki started to look upset again. Col.Cathart starts cringing, and everyone looks at him strangely. Meanwhile, more students pass through the hallway, eager to eat lunch. No one budged. This was too good to pass up, so lunch was handed to them via other students. What will happen now?

The Crushed Ice votecount

kmd4390 (L-7)
Zang (L-6) DTMaster
farside22 (L-7)
Sando (L-7)
The Quintastic One (L-7)
Gheb (L-6) Col.Cathart
springlullaby (L-5) Gheb, TheLonging
DTMaster (L-7)
yellowbunny (L-7)
Col.Cathart (L-4) Zang, Sando, The Quintastic One
TheLonging (L-5) JacobSavage, DTMaster
JacobSavage (L-6) kmd4390

Not voting: Everyone else

With 12 alive, 7 will lynch

spring is being replaced.

[Sando]

Ok, for 1, Lacey agreed to the plan, then did the exact opposite...

2, how does it screw her scumbuddy over specifically? Yeah it'd result in her death, but it's not like it'd out the buddy.

Why don't you find anyone attacking Lacey scummy, despite what you describe as almost the best town-tell you've ever seen?

[Gheb]

how does it screw her scumbuddy over specifically? Yeah it'd result in her death, but it's not like it'd out the buddy.

Happened to me in the last incarnation of this game. My scumbuddy was lynched D1 - pretty much impossible to win this set-up after that.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, for 1, Lacey agreed to the plan, then did the exact opposite...

I actually did the opposite first which she rightfully called me out on. She only dropped it after Mod interference.

2, how does it screw her scumbuddy over specifically? Yeah it'd result in her death, but it's not like it'd out the buddy.

It would leave just one player from that group to take on the rest of the game alone.

Why don't you find anyone attacking Lacey scummy, despite what you describe as almost the best town-tell you've ever seen?

Because people don't understand the towntell.

[JacobSavage]

@KMD

Finally, what I have been saying is that my Town tell on Lacey was weak, because the majority was based on an meta, which is out of date!

However my gut is telling me that Col is acting very scum-like. And I don't know about you but I rate my gut over my out of date meta any day.

How that clarifies it.

@CSL

More of a personal question, what happened to Luigi? and why have you and animorph have the same style of Avatar?

[CSL]

Luigi will be back. Ani just copied me.

On a happier note, startransmission beats out max for the replacement on springlullaby

[startransmission]

Howdy all! I'll read up and share my thoughts shortly.

[CSL]

Zang has requested replacement...


...Max replaces Zang.

This is my SIXTH replacement...wow.

[Max]

I'm going to reread tomorrow.

[CSL]

I don't get to make a vc today? Wow...

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Spring

[CSL]

I do one on every page if I get there in time. You people need to post.

@ kmd4390: startransmission replaced spring...

[Kmd4390]

Vote startransmission

[yellowbunny]

Checking in...waiting for people to respond to my questions, and the replacements (welcome, btw) to post their impressions. *twiddles thumbs*

[The Quintastic One]

TQO, you are so close to understand it. You are seeing "annoying and unhelpful". Step back from that for a second. The answer is right in your post:

The only reason why I could find her town in that situation was because no scum in their right mind would be like "please lynch me!". UNLESS, they were playing a gambit that begs the town to lynch them, in an effort to prove that they are town, when in fact they are actually scum, and the town wouldn't in good faith actually lynch someone trying to sacrifice themselves because that's not seen as scummy to a majority of people.

I don't think Lacey was playing the gambit you describe here. She is a newer player and her posts looked like she genuinely wanted to go along with a "trade".

You are EXTREMELY close to understanding why Lacey is obvtown. You practically spelled out my logic. You just aren't coming to the same conclusion because you are assuming too much.

So you believe Lacey is obvtown because scum would never agree to allowing themselves to be lynched just for the sake of getting an innocent townie lynched? Which wouldn't of worked anyway, since if we lynched Lacey and she turned up Scum we instantly wouldn't of went after you since you were initially right about her scumminess......therefore, she's town?

I'm trying to think of a way to phrase this that doesn't sound so damn confusing. AKA, scum wouldn't willingly put themselves up on the chopping block for their beliefs, because they know their suspicions are false anyway. You'd only have to be 100% town in order to willingly sacrifice yourself for your cause being THAT sure that you've found scum.


If that's true, I think I understand.

Unvote.

[Kmd4390]

TQO, that's not exactly it. If she was scum, she could have still thought I was scum on the other scum team (actually, I just picked up a towntell on you from this). You were closer before. You're right that her position makes absolutely no sense from a scum point of view. That's basically it. As scum, she wouldn't have done what she did.

By the way, for the rest of the town, here's what I picked up on TQO just now. He is forgetting that multiple groups means actual hunting is possible from scum. What he is doing right now is definitely genuinely trying to get a read on Lacey. If he is forgetting that scum could be actually scumhunting, I doubt he is scum who is actually hunting. So the fact that he is genuinely scumhunting now is a massive towntell.

So here's my positions:
Town:
Kmd
Col (Lacey)
TQO

Town read:
Farside
Gheb
Sando

Light town read (flexible):
Max (Fongoid)
TheLonging

Which leaves the scum:
yellowbunny (Goro)
JacobSavage
DTMaster
startransmission (springlullaby)

If I'm wrong about any scum, TheLonging is next in line.