Newbie 906 - Game Over!

[jmurph3]

Prodding jammer.

Prod me while you are at it.

Yes, speaking of you, Ray, do you have anything you'd like to contribute? I'd like to know your take, if any, on developments with the Skill wagon and the newly-sprung Phaen wagon.

[jmurph3]

EBWOP, I don't mean to ignore the new wagon on Phaen. In fact, I find it most intriguing. I simply don't have time at the moment to do any in-depth analyzing. That will come either tomorrow or Sunday.

[Kison]

Day Two: Vote Count

Phaen (

2

) : Skill006, Zorblag
Skill006 (

1

) : Phaen

Not Voting (

4

) : jammer, jmurph3, RayFrost, PranaDevil

With

7

alive, it will take

4

votes to lynch.

The day's deadline is currently set to:

March 23rd, 2010, 11:59:59 PM, EST

[Skill006]

@mod:

I think phaen's ready for a prod too.

[Kison]

Prodding Phaen.

Deadline is just under eight days from the time of this post. Keep in mind that the deadline is in standard time, which would push it back an hour for anyone who just switched to DST.

[jmurph3]

Hokay, so, I would like to analyze the Phaen lynch a bit.

Firstly, Skill says:

Yah, Phaen has been up there for awhile now. The reason I never stated this before is because her only posts were reactions to the game we have already played and attacks on apathy. I wanted to see how she would play when she didn't have the past game as a support for her posts.

Not only did she have a support for what her posts contained, but it built up a good first impression on her. redbox was scummy, she makes up for it with a butt-long post, and everyone's happy.

This is true, as this was most of Phaen's gameplay in D1, but it must also be remembered that Phaen did replace in, and was trying to give her reads. Her stuff on pages 1-7 was very detailed and thorough, though most of it didn't help. My problem is that Phaen never gave her reads on any of the other pages before she jumped into the fray. This is fine in that she said she got a scum vibe off Apathy and wanted to vote for him, but I expected her to go back and continue her reads on the rest of what was said. And she didn't.

Now, to go into Skill's other part of her case, which I will edit to take out what was already said in the previous post:

Phaen

, # 1 suspect: Here's another thing I found interesting from the BW on me, and I doubt it would've come up if there hadn't been one on me: phaen has really mellowed down on the troll case.
On day 1, she said that the player slot is definitely scum, and we should just lynch apathy, and was completely against a troll replacement. However, now that he has replaced in, she stopped her lynch parade. Apparently, "I'm more scummy than apathy ever was." That's hard to imagine, just from me not hammering (since you didn't have a scum read on me day 1). Not only that, but she has made little attempt to see if her beliefs about apathy being scum day 1 were correct, and has proceeded to push aside troll (well, not completely, of course, but I seem to be the only lynch for today).

She just attacks from a safe distance, in a way. Some attacks on apathy (popular at the time, so not much trouble there), then attacks me (popular, so no trouble there). As long as her attacks are substantial, she can just shuffle with the crowd, and pass under suspicion.

Lastly, with all this latest heat on me, it seems like she just wants me quicklynched (vote put me to l-1, dood) without much of any confirmation of a read on troll. More discussion helps town, right? (apparently not This town is a lot diff. from my last, but I still feel more discussion helps.)

Hokay, so, to break this up:

Part 1: the mellowing on the troll case. Well, it's quite possible that Phaen has mellowed on the troll case because she's gotten a different read from Zorb based on the results of the first day, or based on play from this current day. Naturally, it doesn't help that she's only posted 5 time for this day (that does not seem like a lot at all).Phaen does, however, say this for the Apathy slot:

For those of you that had been ready to lynch Apathy what is it that you think that I'm doing differently that doesn't have you voting me at this point today?

I haven't dropped my suspicions of your character slot, but I think other people are being more scummy

now

than Apathy ever was. I'm also glad you're at least active and using good reasoning, which were the main reasons I suspected Apathy.

Also, Skill, you say that Phaen did not have a scum read on you from D1. As a matter of fact, she did. She notes here that you're one of her top 3 choices.

Part 2: She only attacks on those that are popular. I suppose this is true to an extent, but at the same time, if she really wanted to switch to what was popular, she would've jumped on the fuzzy wagon when it seemed that that was the way we were going to go.

Part 3: quick lynch. Prana already stated that Phaen might just want the game to go faster in general, which, really, I'll give her that because I do too. But as he also noted, the fact that she dropped the vote on Skill and then disappeared does seem scummy, but by itself is not enough to make Phaen scum.

Now, Zorb quoted the entirety of what Skill said and then added to it, so to look at what he said:

Phaen seems to have gotten some town credit to offset what people were thinking about redbox just by replacing in and being active. That's a pretty common reaction to someone replacing into newbie games (and to a lesser degree games in general here.) As I'm sure you've already noticed I got that same sort of reaction when I replaced in. On the whole it should be much more of a null tell than people take it to be.

I've been trying to get Phaen to explain why she was so reluctant to find fuzzylightning town because I don't see a good reason for it. I don't feel like she's been looking at the overall play of everyone in the game so much as she's been focused on the players that are under the most pressure at the time with the notable exception of fuzzylightning. As town she probably should have been less willing to write fuzzylightning off as town than she was. If she's scum she would have know that he was town and that would account for the strength of her conviction.

Her opinion about my player spot doesn't seem to be settled well at all. If she was reasonably convinced that Apathy's play was scummy then she should be continuing to put pressure on me. If she wasn't that convinced then her play day one was a misrepresentation of her views. I don't have a strong recollection of her having problems with Skill006's play yesterday (we had neutral reads up till the very end of the day when Skill006 fairly suddenly made the tail end of her suspect list) but now she's going where the pressure is.

I recognize that opinions change. That's a part of the game and I want members of the town to be evaluating their opinions regularly to make sure they're still consistent with the facts (it's very rare to have everything right right from the start.) On the other hand, opinions changing to go along with the latest wagon for reasons that aren't compelling (while PranaDevil didn't explicitly say that he thought Skill006 was looking for a no lynch Phaen actually has which doesn't make any sense to me) is a big flag for me.

I'd still be down with a jmurph3 lynch at this point but I'm going to switch over to Phaen in the interest of having a second wagon which I feel has a better chance of hitting scum than the Skill006 one does.

To break this one down now,

Part 1: Same as what Skill said; pressure was dropped too quickly off of Phaen when she replaced in.

Part 2: The argument about Phaen's read on fuzzy in inaccurate, IMO. She stated here that she's played with him before as town and he acted the same. And the case on him, as she noted, was that he was not posting a lot of content, which she saw as weak. That to me is a valid enough reason not to vote, and just because fuzzy turned out to be town doesn't mean that anyone who thought he was town must be scum because they knew he was town.

Part 3: Phaen's changed from the Apathy/Troll wagon to the Skill wagon with little explanation. I agree completely. Without more from Phaen, her reasoning seems to be based solely on Prana's argument (who has since unvoted) and that Skill didn't vote.

I don't know if this case is compelling enough to me to vote. Things have certainly been pointed out on Phaen that I did not yet notice. I'm waiting before voting on anyone until Ray and Phaen post again.

[Skill006]

Hey people!

Part 1: the mellowing on the troll case. Well, it's quite possible that Phaen has mellowed on the troll case because she's gotten a different read from Zorb based on the results of the first day, or based on play from this current day. Naturally, it doesn't help that she's only posted 5 time for this day (that does not seem like a lot at all).Phaen does, however, say this for the Apathy slot: [insert Phaen speech]

We don't know if she has mellowed on the troll case, because she never really explained her stance on him (or at least I don't think she did).

Anyway, why should she if she was so convinced apathy was scum? Shouldn't she be prying troll with questions or something to get some kind of an indicator from him, or to see if her read was right?

What's the point of quicklynching me if she had a scum read on another player that she doesn't have confirmed? May as well try to get a read out of troll while we are still in the day phase.

Also, Skill, you say that Phaen did not have a scum read on you from D1. As a matter of fact, she did. She notes here that you're one of her top 3 choices.

I actually did see that, but it really didn't mean all that much since it wasn't reinforced with any kind of reason, and it came out of nowhere. Being #3 on someone's suspect list doesn't really mean all that much, either, especially if there isn't much reason to it.

Part 2: She only attacks on those that are popular. I suppose this is true to an extent, but at the same time, if she really wanted to switch to what was popular, she would've jumped on the fuzzy wagon when it seemed that that was the way we were going to go.

There wouldn't have been much reason for her to jump over to fuzzy. One of them was going to be mislynched, and apathy was popular for the majority of the time. Only when prana switched his vote did fuzzy surpass apathy, and troll wasn't about to vote himself so...

Part 3: quick lynch. Prana already stated that Phaen might just want the game to go faster in general, which, really, I'll give her that because I do too. But as he also noted, the fact that she dropped the vote on Skill and then disappeared does seem scummy, but by itself is not enough to make Phaen scum.

The problem with her wanting to quick lynch me, though, is that there are things she could be doing today, as opposed to ending the day right away. It may feel like it will speed things up, but you may miss important details about other people. Like Troll said, if she was confident that troll slot was scum, than she should be doing something about it.

jmurph, you sould be able to take a stance whether ray posts or not (though I can understand wanting to wait for phaen). You don't have to wait for everyone else to form an opinion, although I gather from your post that you think the phaen wagon is weak right now.

[Skill006]

I actually didn't realize we had only a week left. For some reason I thought we had more time than that.

I suppose we should think about lynching someone now, though it might be hard what with the lack of activity. jammer hasn't posted in a week. Phaen is in the same condition. I'm worried that they won't come back, and I'm not sure what we should do about them (as replacements bog the game down). Both of them are my top 2 suspects, so while I wouldn't mind lynching them, I want more info from them.

Right now I'm just hoping they'll come back, but if they don't...I dunno.

[PranaDevil]

Sorry I've not been able to do the checks I wanted to do (I'll hopefully get to them tonight, but no promises).

The problem we have, of course, is with just a week left to go... we're now stuck in the position of policy lynching Phaen and jammer (I don't feel Phaen is scum, and right now think lynching jammer may be a snap decision because of a lack of posting). This means we would run the risk of giving scum a free pass to lylo.

However, if we lynch someone who's active, and it turn's out they're town, we'll be in lylo with, potentially, 2 people who aren't that active, if at all. Or be in Lylo with people who we have no reads on because the playstyle would change (one reason I had replacements... but it's understandable as if we just dropped them we'd be stuffed).

Now, obviously we would hope to be lynching scum, but we have to consider the possibility that if it's town, we're in trouble in one way or the other.

Therefore I'd rather consider lynching someone who seems scum, as opposed to just policy lynching someone. At least that way we're likely to nail scum more than "these two are quiet, which do we get rid of?"

[RayFrost]

Day Two: Vote Count

Phaen (

2

) : Skill006, Zorblag
Skill006 (

1

) : Phaen

Not Voting (

4

) : jammer, jmurph3, RayFrost, PranaDevil

With

7

alive, it will take

4

votes to lynch.

The day's deadline is currently set to:

March 23rd, 2010, 11:59:59 PM, EST

this doesn't show jammer as an option.

please explain, prana.

by the by, I still wanna lynch skill.

vote: skill

this post has very little content.

that's cuz I'm being lazy.

[PranaDevil]

Explanation: Was replying to Skill's post about jammer and Phaen being quiet. End of explanation.

[Skill006]

that's cuz I'm being lazy.

why

[jmurph3]

The more I think about it, and the more I go through D2 stuff, the less and less I'm liking Ray. I don't like his attitude, and I definitely don't like his case on Skill.

As I wrote in this post, the only aspect of Ray's case against Skill is that she hasn't posted much (the same as his case on jammer, by the way). I asked him this:

@Ray: why do you have no preference? Do you not think one is scummier over the other? Also, do you have a case for either that exists separately of your case on both in that both are not posting a lot?

To which he responded:

Also, I think they are equally scummy especially considering they are scummy for the same things, imo.

So yeh.

And not really.

I asked if his "not really" was in response to my question of whether or not he had any case on Skill besides her not posting. He did not respond, so I take that to be the case. Meaning, again, his case is summed up as Skill not posting and switching off Jammer on D1.

And now, without posting any content whatsoever, he has said:

by the by, I still wanna lynch skill.

vote: skill

this post has very little content.

that's cuz I'm being lazy.

This to me is scummy. I don't like Ray's behavior, I don't like the way he's pushing a Skill lynch without a real case. Therefore,

vote: RayFrost

.

[RayFrost]

that's cuz I'm being lazy.

why

weeeelllllll, there's the fact this game consists mostly of text walls, and they are quite horrifying to my eyes and very tiring to read.

At this point, I'm reverting to just my Raw Frosty Instinct^tm, which has failed me very few times in the past.

[jammer]

@Kison, replace me.

[Kison]

Col.Cathart replaces jammer.

[Col.Cathart]

Hey there guys!

Give me some time to read the thread, and I'm back with the insight.

[PranaDevil]

Christ on a bike and the twelve disciples on a twelve seater tandem, that was fast!

Welcome.

[Phaen]

I'm still alive...
<insert useless excuses>
I'm currently catching up.

If you guys want me to request replacement I will (after I give my thoughts on the stuff I missed). I've become rather disinterested and it's not fair to you guys.

[PranaDevil]

vote: RayFrost

Reasons: He's not done anything D2, considering the amount of wind being blown from him D1, I would have felt there would be much more activity from him this day. Instead he's gone from one of the most active (between me and him) to just popping up to say a few lines (sometimes not even saying anything with them) before disappearing again.

Also, apparently opposed the fuzzy lynch based on really weak meta apparently, but gave his full reasons after the lynch (when it was too late) and said reasons weren't that good either from what I could gather.

So yeah, I still suspect some others, but Ray's style of play has gone from seemingly going after everyone D1, to doing sod all D2 suddenly... almost as if it's "heat off, hold back" for him. I don't like it.

[Skill006]

Hi col.cathart!

I've read one of your games (coincidentally troll was the mod), but it's been a while since I read through that.

@Phaen: If it's becoming a chore for you to come back to this game, IMO I think you should replace out. And it would be best if you could post your last thoughts quickly and then replace out, as we want the replacement to have enough time to catch up. (although it's sad that you're losing interest, since you seemed to be so excited in the beginning ).

[jmurph3]

Hey there guys!

Give me some time to read the thread, and I'm back with the insight.

Welcome. I hope you hurry

I'm still alive...
<insert useless excuses>
I'm currently catching up.

If you guys want me to request replacement I will (after I give my thoughts on the stuff I missed). I've become rather disinterested and it's not fair to you guys.

Phaen, if you feel like you can't give this game the time it requires, I would rather you requested replacement. But do give your opinions before you go, just so that we will know.

[Skill006]

weeeelllllll, there's the fact this game consists mostly of text walls, and they are quite horrifying to my eyes and very tiring to read.

Is there a better way to post so that its not so tiring to read?

At this point, I'm reverting to just my Raw Frosty Instinct^tm, which has failed me very few times in the past.

It fails you today.

[RayFrost]

vote: RayFrost

Reasons: He's not done anything D2, considering the amount of wind being blown from him D1, I would have felt there would be much more activity from him this day. Instead he's gone from one of the most active (between me and him) to just popping up to say a few lines (sometimes not even saying anything with them) before disappearing again.

Also, apparently opposed the fuzzy lynch based on really weak meta apparently, but gave his full reasons after the lynch (when it was too late) and said reasons weren't that good either from what I could gather.

So yeah, I still suspect some others, but Ray's style of play has gone from seemingly going after everyone D1, to doing sod all D2 suddenly... almost as if it's "heat off, hold back" for him. I don't like it.

>.>

<.<

SILENCE!

I AM CONCENTRATING!

seriously, I am concentrating in a way that prevents me from posting, as it is the purest state of scumhunting I have been able to obtain. You'll see the full values of it in a bit.

@ Skill

why the no reply to my reply to your reply to my laziness?

[Skill006]

He's not done anything D2, considering the amount of wind being blown from him D1, I would have felt there would be much more activity from him this day.

I don't see why him being suspicious day 1 should make him post more