Newbie 920: Mafia in Newbietown (Game over! Town wins!)

[Ythan]

One, already had my vote before policy set in. Two, the other game is ongoing and I can't go into great detail. Three, meta-gaming is an accepted part of play here. Four, it's not a grudge. I have nothing against Grid personally.

[Ythan]

Site says Grid is on. I'd think he'd want to do something here.

[McGriddle]

Let me just say this 1 thing. It is wise to keep me alive. At least for this day and the next.

Neto moves his vote

away

from you and

now

you start breadcrumbing?

This sets off all kinds of warning bells because I don't see the point of it. And why just "for this day and the next?" What does that mean? Just long enough for a scum win?

He isn't posting too much, and we all seem to be having our little cliques.

For instance Me vs. Neto vs. Sagan

You vs. Fluffy vs. Julano.

Please tell me what this means.

It means like we all don't really look at eachothers cases. (My opinion anyway)

And, you will at least benefit by keeping me alive today.

[Ythan]

And, you will at least benefit by keeping me alive today.

You can say this all you want but don't expect folks to believe you for no reason.

[Zachrulez]

20th vote count of day 1:

Carl Sagan - 3 (Mcgriddle, Unsight, Netopalis)
Mcgriddle - 1 (Ythan)
Ythan - 1 (mariomaster777)
Netopalis - 1 (Carl Sagan)
Julano - 1 (Fiyr)

Not voting (FluffyGiggles, Julano)

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

If I made any mistakes, let me know asap.

DL is March 16 at 9am central.

[Ythan]

Grid is scummy by way of scummy actions. Carl is scummy by way of questionable actions.

Also, Grid is on Carl's wagon. I think a Grid lynch will be more telling for Carl than a Carl lynch for Grid.

[McGriddle]

Grid is scummy by way of scummy actions. Carl is scummy by way of questionable actions.

Also, Grid is on Carl's wagon. I think a Grid lynch will be more telling for Carl than a Carl lynch for Grid.

You're number 2 on my list. Mostly for the wanting a policy lynch based off actions in another game in which you are not to discuss outside of that game.

[McGriddle]

@ mod: I will be V/LA until at least saturday night. I am going camping on the beach as it is spring break for me.

[Ythan]

Are you completely blind? How many times do I have to repeat over and over that you're scummy enough without the (perfectly valid) policy supplementing your lynch? Am I expecting too much?

[mariomaster777]

Seems like we're coming down to a decision point between Carl and McGriddle because of the deadline. Is this an accurate assumption?


I still think it's a mistake to lynch Carl Sagan. I'll stick with my original reasoning behind my believe he is pro-town. Carl hasn't provided any new information for me to go off of, and I still do not feel comfortable making a "shot in the dark" lynch.


On the other hand, the arguments against McGriddle are stronger. I am in complete agreement with Ythan's statement that:

"I think a Grid lynch will be more telling for Carl than a Carl lynch for Grid."

The day 1 lynch is the hardest because of lack of information. It make perfect sense for the town to make lynches which provide the most future information.

Let's consider the outcomes if Carl Sagan is lynched: 1. We find out he's scum and we are that much closer to winning. We also discover that McGriddle, Unsight, and Netopalis' suspicions on him were sound. OR 2. We find out that he's town and we had a mislynch. In my opinion we gain absolutely NOTHING from this result. Carl Sagan's play thus far has certainly not been helpful, and many people are complaining that he is a "bad" player. This result confirms that perhaps Carl played poorly, but nothing else is gained, making the day 2 lynch harder. We'd be starting from square one basically, having to decide if McGriddle is really scum or not. In all probability, I say that a lynch for Carl is basically rolling the dice, and this result will come up 7/9 times. I don't like those odds.

Now let's consider outcomes if McGriddle is lynched: 1. We find out he's scum, and again are that much closer to winning. It also shows that Ythan's suspicions are sound and that it is likely more than just this "bad blood" between them. Netopalis' suspicions are also proven to have weight behind them. OR 2. We find out he's town and we mislynched. This shows that McGriddle's suspicions of Carl are beyond a complete dislike of Carl, perhaps giving more weight to lynching Carl in day 2. As opposed to gaining nothing in the above case, we have a potential game plan to work off of. If we're going to mislynch (which is more likely than not in day 1), I'd rather gain information from it than gain nothing from it.


And for the reasons I've just stated:

Unvote, vote McGriddle

One more thing:

I'm somewhat concerned with Netopalis' vote change however. Reading into his reasoning, I'm going to say he believes it would be "easier" to lynch Carl Sagan over McGriddle. He also says that we can look at McGriddle the following day. However, in post 468, Netopalis states

"There is a stronger case on McGriddle's alignment than on Sagan's at this time, and it's better to present a weak case than no case at all."

Why the sudden switch? I believe there is a stronger case against McGriddle as well, and am very confused as to why you changed your vote just because the mod said we have 5 days left. This doesn't seem like a logical play to me. Care to elaborate?

[Netopalis]

The switch was made for several reasons:

1) I didn't believe I could organize a lynch against McGriddle fast enough. If the town no-lynches, we're all doomed.
2) Carl Sagan will most likely not be providing content in the future. If he is scum, we're going to be running into the same problem every single day. With McGriddle, though, we can accurately review his play on subsequent days.
3) Sagan has honestly exhibited most of the standard scumtells - tunneling, bad logic, lurking and buddying - we've just excused him due to his perceived playstyle.

4 was added after the fact) McGriddle's breadcrumbed a town PR. We shouldn't lynch him due to this.

[Ythan]

"Guys don't kill me trust me."

[Netopalis]

It's bad play, but it's also bad play to lynch a claimed/crumbly PR.

[Ythan]

Grid is likely to post more if we let him live but I don't see it changing anything. As I see it his potential breadcrumbing, and not even in a way that makes me think his potential PR is town, is the only thing.

[FluffyGiggles]

I don't buy Sagan as a lynch. As with my previous arguments, my read is that he's just playing a character and messing with the game or he's a really bad player. While he does have more scumtells in his favour, they're kind of nulled by the fact that he's not playing seriously. Our greatest hope in his case is that he forgets to post for three days and can be replaced out. Or that he starts playing properly (which I doubt).

Anyone can claim a PR.

[Ythan]

You're saying that he has more scumtells but that they're nullified by his style?

[FluffyGiggles]

The word style implies he's playing seriously. Do you think he's trying to win?

[FluffyGiggles]

The word style implies he's playing seriously. Do you think he's trying to win?

EBWODP: The word 'style' implies he's playing seriously. Do you think he's trying to win?

[Unsight]

Our greatest hope in his case is that he forgets to post for three days and can be replaced out.

He went for 6 straight days without posting, appeared only upon moderator prodding, and then only gave a "I'm still here" post. If he had been replaced, I might be voting McGriddle right now but he's actively lurking. I see no chance of him be replaced right now.


@mario : If we lynch McGriddle, how do you think Carl's tunneling/voting of Netopalis will affect the voting scenarios each day after today?

[Unsight]

Are you completely blind? How many times do I have to repeat over and over that you're scummy enough without the (perfectly valid) policy supplementing your lynch? Am I expecting too much?

Ythan, who are your top 3 suspects and why?

[Ythan]

The word style implies he's playing seriously.

No it doesn't.

unvote vote Carl Sagan

[Unsight]

By the way, if anyone uses iGoogle they have a really neat countdown widget you can use. Sadly it only shows one countdown at a time but you can just set it to the closest one.

[Fiyr]

Sorry, I got hit with more HW, I'll try and respond to everything, I see that we have gone into 'Approaching Deadline' mode. At this point in the game is it best to give up on looking at others?

If Sagan shows back up, though, my vote will move back to him.

So wait, would this be qualified as setting up a vote?

@CarlSagan- Do you have nothing else to contribute? You seem to be suspicious of only one person and you don't seem to have noticed that some people are sizing your neck for the noose.

McGriddle shows a definite pattern of being worried and being careful about what he's trying to say in an attempt to appear pro-town and to conceal information.

Could point out where or how exactly?

I already had a vote on Grid for in-game reasons. Now it is also a policy lynch because of an ongoing game that I can't discuss but that I'm sure Neto can confirm.

I agree with those who disagree with a policy lynch.(sorry that's confusing.) Anyone could go and say, "I'm voting for you because of some other game I can't talk about." I know Ythan

and

Neto can say it, but there are two scum in this game.

[quote="McGriddle]Julano seems to be flying under the radar quite well, I think a little pressure is in order. Unvote, Vote: Julano.[/quote]
um,... oh. okay, I hope you noticed my case and vote, if you mean other people, Unsight is responding to my arguments...

your own "Shall I rephrase the question" remark strikes me as wishy washy.

I don't want anyone to think I'm getting super mad over a misunderstanding. He may have thought I was beieng sarcastic or something.

unvote

I like your defense, the question thing, was I think due to a lack of specification. I like to be a little more specific with answers to questions. I think now my case was mostly misunderstandings.

For instance Me vs. Neto vs. Sagan

You vs. Fluffy vs. Julano.

0.0 Where are me and mario???

And, you will at least benefit by keeping me alive today.

You can say this all you want but don't expect folks to believe you for no reason.

Same to you Ythan.

erm,... I believe Carl Sagan is at L-1. It's traditional to wait for him to role claim right? What do we do if he claims PR?

[Ythan]

ALREADY HAD VOTE, SUPPLEMENTED IT WITH POLICY.

ALREADY HAD VOTE, SUPPLEMENTED IT WITH POLICY.

ALREADY HAD VOTE, SUPPLEMENTED IT WITH POLICY.

[Netopalis]

Fiyr: The whole "setting up a lynch" thing is, in my book, an overblown scumtell that I've never actually seen used by scum. It also only applies to setting something up for a future day.

In particular, the exchange shown in iso posts 14-17 is rather telling. He seems to be extremely eager to give the "right" answer instead of giving an honest answer. The nervousness is present in a lot of his posts as well, particularly those after Ythan joins the game.