Mini 930:Morning People Mafia (Game Over!)

[chauchaudotcom]

Oh no no. Not a deadline extension. Just a mass prod because we are so close to the deadline.

[Dragonfly13]

OH DEAR GOD TEXT

First, apologies for this giant lung-crushing wall of text. It is the result of reading the game twice, and quick isos on all players. I tried to get my ideas grouped in similar places, so I hope it's not confusing. Please have mercy when you respond to this post. I'd rather not have to make a bunch of posts this length in the near future.

Grab some tea and popcorn.

The page 3 rz vote:

Initial reaction: "What the hell? I'm replacing THIS guy???"

The only explanation I have for this is that perhaps he was trying to say "if I were scum, why would I do this?" And I ask myself, "What could scum possibly gain by putting Deer at L-2 on page 3? (or maybe L-1? the votecounts around here are confusing)" The only thing that really does is shift attention towards you, so I don't see why scum would do that. 88 sounds like a good enough explanation for me to lower him down a few notches. This kind of thing felt like the only explanation for his vote before I really read into the whole fallen angel gambit thing. Thus, 92 (Deer) appears rather scummy to me. It's interesting how Deer is "ok" with fallen's gambit, but "not satisfied at all" with rz's vote explanation. It seems to be a decent reaction given that Deer was at L-1 or L-2 at this point, but the fact that Deer's vote is still on rz/me makes me wary. In fact, Deer's vote hasn't moved all game.

page 4:

chauchau sticks out awkwardly on this page because she continually labels quotes with the wrong player (81 "Deer" instead of wf, 85, again "Deer" for wf. Her explanation of this (Animal pictures are confusing) makes some sense, so I'll live with it. I was thinking this was a bit scummy because it could have been a way to confuse the town, but on further reflection I'm willing to let it slide as a misunderstanding.)

Rz's explanations of his page 3 vote seem

more

logically sound to me than they were on page 3. But I don't like it when people say "oh I did x, and that's a (pro-town/anti-town/null-tell)" because it should be the other players in the game who decide how your own actions should be perceived. I don't like this part of 117

my goal now is to just to convince people that i have not been scummy up to this point, to the best of my ability. whether or not i am viewed as being helpful is less important to me at this point in time.

Because I'd much rather have seen him at least attempt to scumhunt.

I also disagree with whatever makes him think it was a good idea, in some other game, to fakeclaim doc as town. That's just stupid. So I definitely have my disagreements with rz's playstyle at this point, but I am willing to accept his playstyle and even his weird "gambit," even though I don't agree that it was the right thing to do to get the game going. In other words, I can sort of see why he would play the way he did, but my playstyle is quite different.

page 5:

I don't like FA's 110, especially this response inside the rz quote:

i mean honestly, if you just dont believe me then there is nothing i can do, if i am lynched then so be it i have explained basically everything i have to say about it. analyze it and make your best judgements. i am playing this game to have fun, and the real fun is here, not in the random voting stage.

(fallen angel): Why would we lynch you now? There isn't enough proof, nor has it been long enough. Fearmongering and paranoia much?

How had rz been "fearmongering?" This feels like an attempt to shed some bad light on rz, who had been under a lot of flak for his "gambit" at this point. However, also in 110, FA mentions that "Lying is *only* ever going to be anti-town." which I agree with, for the most part. There is a rather large exception, though, which makes lying anti-town

most of the time

and not "

only ever

." I have seen some players lie as town power roles in several games to great benefit. For example, if you're a cop with a guilty result, it's often more useful to the town to lie about the guilty player

if necessary

, during your own interactions with that player, so that you can find connections to scumbuddies without the guilty player knowing that you know they're scum. Of course, the true information should come out eventually, but the more information you can gather from your result without just telling the rest of the scum you know who one of their partners is, the better.

On the subject of FA:
FA iso 10 (page 2)

Unvote

I'm gonna guess that there are one or more scum voting Deer, so I'm tempted to put him at L-1. Unfortunately, that's major wifom and also not worth the gambit so early in the game (especially D1). Bah.

He mentions here, that it's "not worth the gambit so early." He then proceeds to attempt the gambit while telling everyone that's what he's doing, in iso 14. Later, after rz votes Deer, FA decides rz is scummy, but doesn't vote for him. FA's vote remains on Deer until he unvotes. He also says in that post that he's "pretty convinced of rzhang's scumminess."
iso 25, a HoS on rz. But still, this is what FA says:

Not willing to vote until I know how many he already has on him (given the confusion with incorrect vote counts) and I want the day to go on as long as possible, but I'm not liking him at the moment.

Not willing to vote, wants the day to go on as long as possible (throw me town points plzkthx?), Hand of Suspicion. It should be noted in FA iso 15 that FA thinks "the closer Deer is to danger, the farther he is from harm." So how does rz placing Deer closer to danger make his action scummy?

page 6:

Water_foul, Post 132. At this point, wf's vote is already on rz. In post 132, wf says:

I don't think there is enough evidence to lynch so i will leave it at L-2 but will proceed cautiously with my vote still on him.

This is just an odd thing to say in general. He's going to keep his vote on rz, leaving him at L-2, but there's not enough evidence to lynch, so he's going to proceed cautiously, even though the only player he lists in his "scum vibes" as higher than 55% is rz, with 60-75%. Post 132 is generally pretty crappy, other than when wf points out that rz decided to keep his opinion of Deer a secret. Keeping this opinion secret is another thing I disagree with about how rz played.

SSSS, iso 7 ("The stupidly obvious vote")

so, I will

vote: rzhang86

for the same reasons as the others, and the fact that he seems to be acting like he controls the game already, something scum practically are, since they know everyone else is town.

HE IS AT L-1 DO NOT VOTE AGAINST HIM YET

vs iso 11

I'm not saying that he controls the town but has more knowledge than the rest of us.

Further, iso 7 again

As to why I unvoted, I didn't have any good reason to vote Deer, as I had no suspicions on him, but I did not consider the gambit taking place.

vs iso 10,

I had a definite reason for my random vote, and took it off once we started to leave RVS.

Which leads to one odd tie, between fitz and SSSS:

page 7:

fitz iso 16 looks like possible coaching to me. Note: fitz hasn't mentioned SSSS before this. In this post fitz asks if SSSS's "gut feel" has changed. Though SSSS has said "general feeling" before this post by fitz, in his response to what I propose as fitz coaching, SSSS uses the word "gut" three times. SSSS does not specifically use "gut" after this response. If the "fitz coaching" was actually just fitz-town questioning SSSS's behavior, SSSS's response is scummy regardless. Note that SSSS in iso 7 said

I will vote: rzhang86 for the same reasons as the others, and the fact that he seems to be acting like he controls the game already, something scum practically are, since they know everyone else is town.

Surely this "reasoned" (and stupidly obvious) vote was not originally based on gut.

Other people obviously question SSSS's actions, and TW stuck out here too for a while, in Post 189, but TW feels more like a townie confused by SSSS rather than a scumbuddy coaching him. This was another "odd tie" until I began to type this up, but now I feel it's not really a tie anymore.

page 8:

fitz' 176 is rather scummy, because it provides only two options for why rz requested replacement. Couldn't a third option be "doesn't have enough time to play mafia anymore?" Other options exist, too, so why lump them all into two options (overwhelmed newbie / cornered scum)? Both options, in fact, feel like they are placing a bad light on rz: how was rz overwhelmed at this point? The attention had switched to SSSS at this point and fitz seems to be going back to rz simply because he replaced out.

Since rz has dispelled the newbie factor by defending his actions and saying he had mafia experience outside of this site I'm going to lean away from the overwhelmed newbie option and towards the cornered scum.

Fitz has voted for RZ and FA (and NS). He has been rather suspicious of NS and WF. Why is SSSS left out?

SSSS post 179 (iso 14):

My final sentence was to make sure that he doesn't get hammered and the day ends early. If someone hammered him, I would expect to be scrutinized along with everyone else, this was not meant to be a preemptive excuse.

So

that's

why he told everyone not to vote in huge letters. Because he would expect to be scrutinized. Why should a townie not want to be scrutinized?

page 9:

WF looks suspicious, people call him out on stuff, JB jumps in to FoS WF, blah blah.

page 10:

TW jumps on SSSS's bandwagon at chauchau's suggestion. Up until this point, his main suspects appeared to be rz, fa, and wf. TW was suspicious of SSSS early in the game, but this post TW says he's getting "town vibes" from SSSS, so why would he vote SSSS now?


On the subject of ties between SSSS and other players again, Deer has been sticking out a bit.
Deer iso 5
"Of the people on my wagon, smashbro comes off as the scummiest"
iso 7
"I do like the fact SSSS got off the wagon, though."
iso 14
"SSSS's (lots of S's there haha) actions certainly don't look good but I'm not willing to let my suspicions of rzhang go competely out the window"
iso 19
"Not a huge fan of SSSS's play, but Nobody Special has been active lurking quite a bit."
Note that Deer has not voted SSSS, and most of the time, when he talks about his suspicions of SSSS, he mentions someone else too.


Abrupt post ending because this was a rather long one.



In short, I could be wrong about fitz and deer, but I'm relatively certain SSSS is scum.

Vote: SSSS

[Dragonfly13]

Maybe I should've broken that up into multiple posts... ehhh.

[SpyreX]

...

Well, that there is a good post. I approve of that. Why didn't you just START with that sheesh.

After I see the VC to make sure there's no shenanegi I can get behind that.

I lean deer for a partner a bit more.

[sykedoc]

Vote Count:

Dragonfly13(4): Deer, havingfitz, Nobody Special, smashbro_of_the_SSSS
smashbro_of_the_SSS(4): Sucrose, chauchaudotcom, jbernier93, Dragonfly13
SpyreX(1): peanutman
Nobody Special(1): SpyreX

6 to lynch.
Deadline on Sunday because I said so.

Sucrose's vote in 255 doesn't count due to a lack of unvote and no bolding.
Let me know if I did something wrong. I'm terrible at vote counts

[TeWuicah]

He's only at L2 and you're uncomfortable? Isn't the point of voting him to pressure him to talk more? How is that achieved if you so easily back off the wagon?

Yes, because several things(deadline looming, jbernier going after him hard and activity spiking) made me think that a lynch on SSSS was not impossible in a pretty short timeframe. My vote on SSSS was not a seriousvote, it was more of an attempt to probe the game as it was dead quiet. So I didn't want a lynch on him before I had a better chance to look over the game again and see if there's a better candidate for a lynch.

- Te has generally followed where the votes are going all game and has not initiated any bandwagons. Possible parroting and attempt to blend in background..

*shrug* I thought I had a decent case against water_foul before he got replaced. Is it my fault no one jumped on that bandwagon?

OH DEAR GOD TEXT

Good stuff. After reading this and a reread of the game I could get behind a SSSS lynch, but Nobody Special is just too quiet. He's posting just enough to avoid a prod and most of it has no content. Surely there's something to post about now that the replacements are in?

Vote: Nobody Special

@mod:

Your votecount still has rzhang although he's been replaced. Could we have an exact time on the deadline?

11:59 PM MST Sunday and that was mostly due to people giving me votes for him after he left, fixed.

[jbernier93]

Good stuff. After reading this and a reread of the game I could get behind a SSSS lynch, but Nobody Special is just too quiet. He's posting just enough to avoid a prod and most of it has no content. Surely there's something to post about now that the replacements are in?

To be fair, he's being really quiet in all his games as of late.

[TeWuicah]

To be fair, he's being really quiet in all his games as of late.

As of late meaning what, exactly? I mean, he posted in this game just yesterday, yet added nothing relevant.

[jbernier93]

To be fair, he's being really quiet in all his games as of late.

As of late meaning what, exactly? I mean, he posted in this game just yesterday, yet added nothing relevant.

In all games I'm in with him, his recent posts have been infrequent / relatively low content.

[peanutman]

Of my limited time on mafiascum (about 4-5 games), the scummiest players lynched D1 have always turned out to be town. In fact, it's through probing and questionning that the scum blow up the case much bigger than it is (though the suspects don't help themselves by digging their hole). Therefore, although the likes of SSSS and rzhang didn't always behave in a townie way, I don't think they are the best lynches for today. I'm skeptical of lynches of the most obvious candidates on D1.

That being said, I'm not claiming that rzhang/Dragonfly and SSSS must be townies, but I feel it's more beneficial to go after those who aren't in (and attracting by their responses) the limelight. Let's be honest, if those two are town, they are easy for scum to push and lynch without rousing too much suspicion from their accusations.

That's why I'm leaning more towards Water_Foul (though, if I were to judge Spyrex alone, I wouldn't be at all) for the reasons previously stated, or Nobody Special, given his requesting more activity and yet not commenting on it when it comes. His only comment is post 263 since the uptake in activity. Because I find Spyrex to be more helpful to the town, I will

unvote, vote : Nobody Special

@mod : in the 279 VC, you should also change water_foul to Spyrex.

Awful slow today

[chauchaudotcom]

Sucrose's vote was just a confirm vote. He had already been voting RZ in ISO 12.

Which also means Smash is at L-1. I believe this is the time to claim.

[chauchaudotcom]

That being said, I'm not claiming that rzhang/Dragonfly and SSSS must be townies, but I feel it's more beneficial to go after those who aren't in (and attracting by their responses) the limelight. Let's be honest, if those two are town, they are easy for scum to push and lynch without rousing too much suspicion from their accusations.

You do realize that lynches give us information as well as a chance to hit scum right? Seeing the flip and being able to analyze bandwagon and voting relationships is a big part of this game.

I agree that D1 lynch statistics are troubling. However, using that as an excuse to vote someone else bothers me. Particularly given we are not just talking about pressuring here but an actual lynch.

[peanutman]

Chauchau, I am willing to lynch someone, just not those two today. I do want to hit scum, and I believe there's a better chance of hitting it by not going after the two favored candidates. I'm using my vote as a tool to "give us information as well as a chance to hit scum". I believe that there's a greater chance that NS is, than DF or SSSS.

I added the section that you quoted so that people don't turn around later and say that I claimed they were townie. Unlike other players, I don't have a list of "most likely town" and "obv-town", and even if I did, I certainly wouldn't share it D1.

So don't wrongfully accuse me of not wanting to lynch. Don't say that my skepticism D1 is my "excuse" for someone else, I believe I have justified my two votes up to now, and they don't rest on not wanting to follow the masses. In fact, NS is at 3 votes, right behind DF and SSSS (4 each).

[chauchaudotcom]

So don't wrongfully accuse me of not wanting to lynch

I didn't accuse you of not wanting to lynch. Don't misrep what I wrote. I simply meant I did not agree with your reasoning because I think lynching someone who is BOTH highly likely to be scum and who's lynch will give you information is important.

For instance: If both NS and Smash are scummy and smash's flip is going to give me more information to work with tomorrow, then I'm going to vote Smash.

Justified? Why are you voting Nobody then? Because the explanation I got was that you're voting him because you don't want to vote for RZ or Smash.

[chauchaudotcom]

Also, so it's clear:

SMASH IS L-1 RIGHT NOW

[TeWuicah]

In all games I'm in with him, his recent posts have been infrequent / relatively low content.

So your argument is that his inactivity doesn't count as proof of his alignment? Fair enough. I still think it's anti-town, and if he can't put in any content at all then he's better off replacing out.

Also, so it's clear:

SMASH IS L-1 RIGHT NOW

Who's the fifth person voting for him? Vote count says he's got four votes and it takes 6 to lynch.

[chauchaudotcom]

^ Sucrose voted him way before. Mod did the count wrong.

[TeWuicah]

Look again. Vote count has Sucrose voting for SSSS.

[chauchaudotcom]

You're right. x_x Wow. Sorry about that guys. I saw the mod say that Sucrose's vote wasn't counted because it wasn't bolded so I thought Smash had 4 votes w/o Sucrose's vote. Evidently it's too early in the morning for basic reading skills. =[

[TeWuicah]

Can't really blame you on that one. Mod's comment there has made things pretty confusing.

I don't see any other errors in vote count that haven't been pointed out already, so it seems like Dragonfly and SSSS are at L-2, and Nobody Special at L-3.

[Sucrose]

I was just using "Confirm Vote: SSS" as a way to say if I wasn't already voting for SSS, I would be now. It's not a real vote, so I didn't bold it. Sorry, didn't mean to cause any confusion.

[peanutman]

Justified? Why are you voting Nobody then? Because the explanation I got was that you're voting him because you don't want to vote for RZ or Smash.

Reasons for voting NS

Nobody Special, given his requesting more activity and yet not commenting on it when it comes. His only comment is post 263 since the uptake in activity.

The other person that I wish to point out is Nobody Special.
I was also suspicious of his iso8, which started with
Nobody Special wrote:
Hi. (In before prod!)
Why was it necessary to boast that he came in before the prod (which the mod had in effect said he would do barring loss of internet access 4 hours before). He then accuses everyone else of not posting frequently enough, he had more active games. For one, this comes off as over-confident in my eyes, kind of saying "I have more important games and am waiting for you guys to do stuff that I can react to". Although this applies to many players in this game, stop being reactive and start being proactive. Statements such as "I've been following but have nothing to add since there's nothing new" is not helpful. Keep looking further into things, repeat questions or follow-up on them. Heck, if you're into it, look into metas (though you can be sure I won't). In all, I'm not liking NS's attitude in this game so far.

As for the misrepresentation,

You do realize that lynches give us information as well as a chance to hit scum right?

I didn't accuse you of not wanting to lynch. Don't misrep what I wrote. I simply meant I did not agree with your reasoning because I think lynching someone who is BOTH highly likely to be scum and who's lynch will give you information is important.

Isn't your first question a leading one, implying that I don't want to lynch? Did I really misrep you, or was your initial question more accusatory that you would have liked?
Also, the fact that SSSS and DF are "highly likely" to be scum is your own opinion. If I believe that NS is BOTH "highly likely" to be scum, and that his lynch will give me information, then you shouldn't disagree with my reasoning. You can disagree with my views on who's likely scum, but not my reasoning for voting.

[chauchaudotcom]

If your justification was in your first post, what was the point of you discussing why you weren't going to vote Rz and Smash anyway? Your post talked mainly about the bad statistics of D1 lynches and then you switched your vote. Which is why I associated that with your vote switch.

Also, for your actual accusations:
"in before prod" - How is this scummy?
What does overconfidence have to do with being scummy?
Does not being helpful equate scummy?

Isn't your first question a leading one, implying that I don't want to lynch? Did I really misrep you, or was your initial question more accusatory that you would have liked?
Also, the fact that SSSS and DF are "highly likely" to be scum is your own opinion. If I believe that NS is BOTH "highly likely" to be scum, and that his lynch will give me information, then you shouldn't disagree with my reasoning. You can disagree with my views on who's likely scum, but not my reasoning for voting.

You've misunderstood me. My first question was talking about lynches in general. Not the act of lynching. No where in your post did you say you didn't want a lynch so why in the world would I come to such a conclusion?

I was talking about how you said because of how weary you are of D1 lynches, you did not want to vote the two who were 'in the limelight'. I was merely pointing out that even though D1 flips do not always turn scum, the important thing is the information you get from the flip. Granted, it would be awesome if we got scum but I'm being realistic about this as well. And you need to realize that individuals who are anti-town or under heavy suspicion are usually left alive by scum. Allowing scum to have scapegoats later on in the game is far more detrimental for town imo.

And to clarify, I don't think DF is scum and I never did. I was merely referencing the two biggest bandwagons at the moment.

As for information, there has been far more activity on Smash's wagon and Smash has had far more interactions with others then Nobody. But you are right about the opinion. My view on Smash does bias my perspective in some ways.

[chauchaudotcom]

"My first question was talking about lynches in general. Not the act of lynching."

Lol. Fail. I meant to say.. "Not whether you wanted a lynch or not."

[SpyreX]

Vote: SSSS

There, that should fix that up.

Its a claimin time.